These brief descriptions of abstracts published in Volume 27 (2005)—5% of the 600
yearly total-- have been selected by Future Survey editor Michael Marien for their
breadth, importance, originality, authoritativeness, readability, and/or long-term
perspective. Most of the 30 titles are also part of Best Recent Books and Reports,
a broader listing of >130 titles from Volumes 23-27, with 6-7 items in each of 20
categories, posted at www.wfs.org. BRBR will be updated every few months so
as to incorporate major new books in Volume 28 (2006).
Powerful Times: Rising to the Challenge of Our Uncertain World
Eamonn Kelly (Wharton School/Pearson Prentice Hall, Oct 2005/275p). CEO and president of
Global Business Network identifies seven matching pairs of forces that will grow in the
next decade: clarity/craziness, secular/sacred, US power/vulnerability, tech
acceleration/pushback, intangible/physical economies, prosperity/decline, and
people/planet. A fresh and powerful framework for understanding global promise and peril.
(27:9/401)
2005 State of the Future
Jerome Glenn and Theodore Gordon (AC/UNU,
July 2005/101p). The 9th annual report of the AC/UNU Millennium Project updates
its very useful overview of 15 Global Challenges; also sections on future ethical issues,
emerging environmental security issues, preventing negative impacts of nanotech, and the
State of the Future Index. (27:9/403)
Free World: America, Europe, and the Surprising Future of the West
Timothy Garten Ash (Random House, Nov 2004/286p).
An Oxford scholar focuses on four important global challenges requiring US-Europe
cooperation: peace in the Middle East, the shift of global power to China and India, the
North/South income gap, and multilateral agreement on global warming. The old
Atlantic-centered West probably has <20 years left as the main world-shaper. (27:1/010)
The World Is Flat: A Brief History of the Twenty-First Century
Thomas L. Friedman (Farrar, Straus and Giroux, April 2005/488p).
Informally-written best-seller for many months on ten forces that have flattened the
global economic playing field. Also see Three Billion New Capitalists by Clyde Prestowitz
(Basic Books, May 2005/321p; FS 27:7/301) for a similar argument, but with greater
emphasis on China and India. (27:9/423)
Arab Human Development Report 2004: Towards Freedom in the Arab World
UN Development Programme and Arab Fund for Economic/Social Development (United Nations,
May 2005/248p).
The 3rd Arab HDR written by Arab scholars and policymakers, on the thorny
issues of good governance and political reform, with three scenarios: Impending Disaster,
The "Izdihar" (Ideal) Alternative, and The "Half-Way House" of gradual
and moderate reform. (27:7/317)
Investing in Development: A Practical Plan to Achieve the Millennium
Development Goals
Jeffrey D. Sachs (Earthscan, June 2005/329p).
An overview of the findings of the UN Millennium Project, co-authored by the coordinators
of the MP’s Secretariat and 10 Task Forces. Proposes country plans to meet MDG
targets by 2015, strengthened governance, increased assistance, etc.
Also see the 13 other MP volumes covered in Aug and Sept issues of FS. (27:9/428)
Global Marshall Plan: A Planetary Contract for a Worldwide Eco-Social Market
Economy
Edited by Franz Josef Rademacher (July 2004/191p).
A group of 16 NGOs including the Club of Rome and the Club of Budapest has begun a
"Global Marshall Plan Initiative" for a new planetary contract after realizing
the UN Millennium Development Goals in 2015 (www.globalmarshallplan.org). Actions are
aimed at getting the EU to support this vision. (27:1/012)
Global Covenant: The Social Democratic Alternative to the Washington
Consensus
David Held (Polity Press, 2004/201p).
A leading UK scholar of globalization and cosmopolitan values proposes a broad-ranging
agenda based on principles of social democracy, calling for trade reforms, new revenue
streams, global issues networks, reshaping the market economy, supporting the rule of law,
multi-stakeholder dialogue, etc. (27:4/157)
SECURITY/CRIME
Deadly Arsenals: Nuclear, Biological and Chemical Threats (2nd
Edition).
Joseph Cirincione (Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, July 2005/490p).
Rejecting the overly broad "WMD" label, this authoritative and detailed
assessment describes which nations have nuclear, bio, or chemical weapons—and the
ballistic missiles of 12 countries that can deliver them 1,000 to >5,500 km.
(27:11/508)
State of the World 2005: A Worldwatch Institute Report on Progress
Toward a Sustainable Society
Michael Renner et al. (W.W. Norton, Jan 2005/237p).
The 22nd annual edition of this vital overview focuses on Redefining
National Security by reducing nuclear weapons and conventional small arms, containing
infectious disease, managing water conflict, changing the oil economy, and setting
principles for a more secure world. (27:1/027)
Illicit: How Smugglers, Traffickers, and Copycats are Hijacking the Global
Economy
Moises Naim (Doubleday, Oct 2005/340p).
Editor of Foreign Policy warns that growing illicit trade in people, drugs, arms,
and all sorts of goods is transforming the global system, creating a world of geopolitical
"bright spots" and "black holes." Despite massive efforts, governments
are failing to stem the tide, and nothing in the foreseeable future will turn things
around. (27:12/599)
Global Corruption Report 2005
Transparency International (Pluto Press, March 2005/316p).
People worldwide view corruption as one of the biggest problems they face. This 10th
annual Corruption Perceptions Index ranks 146 countries from least corrupt to most, with
UK at #11, Germany at #15, US at #17, Japan at #24, Mexico at #64, China at #71, and India
and Russia tied at #90. (27:7/312)
Crime Prevention: Facts, Fallacies, and the Future
Henry Shaftoe (Palgrave Macmillan, Nov 2004/246p).
Much popular debate about crime feeds off misinformation and panic. This outstanding
overview argues that criminal justice can’t do more to control crime, and offers 14
approaches for long-term prevention. Also see Thinking About Crime by Michael Tonry
(Oxford U Press, March 2004/260p; 27:5/245) for a thoughtful reflection on the unique and
stupidly wasteful US punishment system. (27:5/244)
ENERGY/ENVIRONMENT
The New Atlas of Planet Management
Edited by Norman Myers and Jennifer Kent (U of California Press, Nov 2005/304p).
First published in 1984, this updated edition offers a powerful overview of trends and
concepts regarding life on Earth, land, oceans, forests, energy, human impacts, cities,
managing civilization, and a new ethic for the 21C. (27:12/551)
Plan B 2.0: Rescuing a Planet Under Stress and a Civilization in Trouble
Lester R. Brown (W.W. Norton, Jan 2006/365p).
Revised and expanded version of Plan B (Norton, Sept 2003/285p), an ambitious vision to
end poverty, restore the earth, feed 7 billion people well, stabilize climate, and design
sustainable cities. Key features are a $68B/year Poverty Eradication Budget and a
$93B/year Earth Restoration Budget—still small compared to military spending.
(27:12/552)
Defying Ocean’s End: An Agenda for Action
Edited by Linda K. Glover and Sylvia A. Earle (Island Press, Oct 2004/283p). An agenda
from a 2003 "DOE" conference in Mexico, focusing on ocean-use planning, marine
protected areas, global fisheries efficiency, a global network for governing coastal
ecosystems, improving public opinion, and a new governance ethos promoted by a World Ocean
Public Trust. (27:4/192)
The World’s Water 2004-2005
Edited by Peter H. Gleick (Island Press, Nov 2004/362p). 4th edition of an
authoritative biennial report, with essays on the inadequate commitment to the Millennium
Development Goals for water, bottled water trends, water privatization principles,
groundwater management, urban water conservation, etc. (27:1/032)
World Energy Outlook 2005
International Energy Agency (OECD/IEA, Dec 2005/629p).
Emphasis in this year’s annual survey is on Middle East/North African oil and gas
resources, seen as critical to meet world energy needs >50% higher in 2030 than today.
This will require an energy-sector investment of $17 trillion through 2030. (27:12/561)
Sustainable Energy: Choosing Among Options
Jefferson W. Testor and four others (MIT Press, Aug 2005/846p).
A massive overview of energy technology and resources from the MIT Energy Laboratory, with
chapters on trends and outlooks for fossil fuels, nuclear power, biomass, geothermal,
hydro, solar, wind, and ocean energy. An essential base for intelligent policy. (27:9/414)
SOCIETY/GOVERNMENT
Extending Opportunities: How Active Social Policy Can Benefit Us All
Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD, March 2005/ 196p).
Taking a "life course perspective," OECD prescribes active social policies to
pro-actively invest in children, adults, and the elderly, not merely treating distress
after it arises. An enlightened, civilized, and forward-looking view. (27:10/500)
Limits to Privatization: A Report to the Club of Rome
Ernst Ulrich von Weizsacker, Oran R. Young, and Matthias Finger (Earthscan, March
2005/414p).
Examines privatization in all areas of government, finding successes, mixed outcomes, and
outright failures, depending largely on what kind of regulation accompanies it. The key
message is "beware of extremes." Despite many benefits, there may be even more
harms. (27:7/342)
The State of Working America 2004/2005
Lawrence Mishel, Jared Bernstein, and Sylvia Allegretto (ILR Press/Cornell, Jan
2005/484p).
Analysts at the Economic Policy Institute provide latest data on growing inequality in
family income, persistent inequality in wealth, wage and benefit trends, the jobless
recovery after 2001, growing household debt, trends in poverty and near-poverty, labor
markets in US states and regions, and comparisons of the US with other OECD countries.
Authoritative, broad-ranging, and clearly-written. (27:2/073)
Social Inequality
Edited by Kathryn M. Neckerman (Russell Sage Foundation, June 2004/1,017p).
A massive and definitive volume on growing inequality in the US, documenting gaps in
wealth, income, family/neighborhood conditions, investments in children, health care,
education, and political influence. Inequality is a major social trend, too often
overlooked. (27:2/091)
The State of the World’s Cities 2004-2005
UN Human Settlements Programme (UN-Habitat and Earthscan, 2004/198p).
Survey of policy challenges resulting from globalization, cultural strategies for urban
development, metropolitanization trends, international migration and cultural
implications, urban poverty, regional trends in urban crime, and principles of an emerging
planning culture. (27:2/077)
American Higher Education in the Twenty-First Century (2nd
Edition).
Edited by Philip G. Altbach, Robert Berdahl, and Patricia Gumport (Johns Hopkins U Press,
April 2005/558p).
Wide-ranging overview of who controls academe, the future of academic freedom, growing
privatization and commercialization, less state funding, cutbacks in libraries, more
part-timers, more student loan debt, growing criticism, higher turnover of presidents,
etc. (27:5/227)
SCIENCE/TECHNOLOGY
The Singularity Is Near: When Humans Transcend Biology
Ray Kurzweil (Viking, Sept 2005/652p).
The "singularity" is a period several decades ahead when technological change
will be so rapid and deep that human life will be irreversibly transformed. Technology
will allow us to design bodies and brains that will last longer and perform better, e.g.:
nanobots (molecular-level robots) will reverse human aging and vastly extend human
intelligence. A huge, audacious book. (27:11/530)
Autonomous Robots
George A. Bekey (MIT Press, Aug 2005/577p).
Intelligent machines capable of performing tasks by themselves have proliferated in recent
years and promise to play a major role in our lives. Likely developments in the next
decade are described for household and industrial services, the military, artificial
creatures as companion pets and playmates, care of the elderly and disabled, construction
and heavy industry, molecular-sized nanorobots, and multi-robot systems in space or under
the sea. (27:11/533)
Innovation: Applying Knowledge in Development
UN Millennium Project (Earthscan, June 2005/194p). Millennium Development Goal #8
seeks to make the benefits of new technologies available to poor countries that often lack
adequate infrastructure (electricity, transport, telecoms). Once provided, it can enable
key platform technologies: ICTs, biotechnologies, nanotechnology, and new low-cost
materials. Also see 27:11/535, reporting on a Delphi study of nanotech applications likely
to benefit poor countries in the next decade. (27:9/429)
Nanofuture: What’s Next for Nanotechnology
J. Storrs Hall (Prometheus Books, May 2005/333p).
Chief scientist at Nanorex describes molecular manipulation and the probable potential in
the next 25 years for nanomedicine, quantum nanocomputers, self-replication, engines too
small to see, the personal home synthesizer manufacturing system, vastly improved
artificial intelligence, etc. (27:6/277)
Infinite Worlds: An Illustrated Voyage to Planets Beyond Our Sun
Ray Villard and Lynnette R. Cook (U of California Press, June 2005/252p).
The universe has at least 100 billion galaxies, each with some 100 billion stars, and
there may be a billion or more rocky planets the size of Earth, some of which are
habitable. The extraordinary illustrations in this book offer a glimpse of possible
landscapes and atmospheres that almost certainly adorn alien worlds and may support life.
A must for anyone interested in outer space. (27:11/529)
