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Future
Survey
I. TOP TEN TRENDS from FUTURE
SURVEY, Fall 2004
The following trends from the July, August, and September issues of Future
Survey have been selected by editor Michael Marien as authoritative statements on
important issues shaping the future:
• ECOLOGICAL FOOTPRINT GROWING. "The human ecological
footprint is still increasing despite progress made in technology and
institutions…many crucial sources are emptying or degrading, and many sinks are
filling up or overflowing…we are much more pessimistic about the global future than
we were in 1972."
—Donella Meadows, Jorgen Randers, and Dennis Meadows in Limits
to Growth: The 30-Year Update (FS 26:7/301)
• HOPE IN DECLINE. "Over the last three decades a major
cultural shift has taken place in the attitudes of Western societies toward the future.
Optimism has given way to a sense of ambiguity…(which) threatens to stifle hope at a
personal as well as a social level."
—Theologians Miroslav Volf and William Katerberg in The
Future of Hope (FS 26:9/415)
• NEW NUCLEAR WEAPONS. "Nuclear
scientists are actually designing, developing, testing, and constructing new nuclear
weapons at an annual cost of $5 billion over the next 10-15 years."
—Dr. Helen Caldicott in The New Nuclear Danger (FS 26:9/421)
• BIRD FLU. "The recent appearance and
spread of 'bird flu' across Asian poultry populations has raised concerns that a
devastating new influenza pandemic is imminent…should the bird flu virus evolve to a
form that readily infects humans, widespread loss of life is predicted."
—Tyler Kokjohn et al. in WFS 2004 Conference Volume (FS
26:9/446)
• RESPONSE TO AIDS. In the past three years,
"the essential ingredients for a global response have coalesced: cheaper drugs,
high-level political will, new money to pay for treatment, and growing grassroots muscle
to push governments to follow through on their promises."
—Anne-Christine D'Adesky on the race to treat global AIDS (FS
26:9/448)
• SURPLUS MALES IN CHINA AND INDIA. "The
masculinization of Asia's sex ratios is one of the overlooked megatrends of our time, a
phenomenon that may very likely influence the course of national and perhaps even
international politics in the 21st century."
—Valerie Hudson and Andrea den Boer in Bare Branches (FS
26:7/333)
• SUSTAINABLE FOREST MANAGEMENT. "In
recent years, despite high rates of deforestation in many regions, progress in
implementing sustainable forest management around the world has been steady and
encouraging."
—FAO report, State of the World's Forests 2003 (FS 26:7/305)
• WORKFORCE TRENDS IN U.S. The US workforce in
the next 10-15 years will continue to grow, but at a much slower rate, with greater
workforce participation by the elderly, the disabled, and women with children.
—RAND report on The 21st Century at Work (FS
26:8/379)
• TRANSPORTATION INNOVATION. "University
communities are at the leading edge in transportation innovation, developing new
approaches that may have broad application, from central cities to suburban corporate
campuses."
—Will Toor and Spenser Havlick in Transportation &
Sustainable Campus Communities (FS 26:7/349)
• NOVEL FUTURES: RAPID GROWTH. "For the
overwhelming preponderance of human history, humans have lived in societies that were
characterized by 80% continuities, 15% cycles, and only 5% novelties at best. Now I
believe the figures are reversed: 80% of our futures may be novel, 15% cyclical, and only
5% continuous with the past and present."
—Prof. Jim Dator, Hawaii Center for Futures Studies (FS 26:7/317)
II. TOP TEN FORECASTS from FUTURE
SURVEY, Fall 2004
The following forecasts from the July, August, and September issues of Future Survey have
been selected by editor Michael Marien as authoritative statements on significant probable
developments that deserve wide attention.
• WORLD POPULATION IN 2050. The human population is
projected to grow from 6.4 billion as of mid-2004 to 7.9 billion in 2025 (24% growth) and
9.3% in 2050 (45% growth).
—Carl Haub, Population Reference Bureau (FS 26:9/401)
• AGING SOCIETIES. "Fiscal
pressures associated with aging societies are set to intensify over the next few years,
and even more so beyond…deficits and debts are on an explosive path in most large
OECD countries, as well as in many smaller ones."
—OECD Economic Outlook, 2004/1 (FS 26:8/392)
• GREATER TRANSPARENCY. Pervasive computing
and documentation will ultimately make all things transparent in all public and private
enterprises, with total transparency finally becoming international law in 15-20 years.
—David Pearce Snyder on "Five Meta-Trends Changing the
World" (FS 26:7/326)
• NORTH-SOUTH DIVIDE. "It is probable
that, as of 2025, the North-South divide in the world-system will not be significantly
reduced; indeed, it might be quite enlarged."
—Immanuel Wallerstein on the relative decline of the US in the
world (FS 26:9/411)
• AL QAEDA'S NEXT ATTACK. "I write this
book with a pressing certainty that al Qaeda will attack the continental US again, that
its next strike will be more damaging than that of 9/11, and could include use of weapons
of mass destruction…this war has the potential to last beyond our children's
lifetimes and to be fought mostly on US soil."
—"Anonymous" (CIA analyst Michael Scheuer) on Imperial
Hubris (FS 26:9/417)
• AL QAEDA'S LONG-TERM PROGRAM. The al Qaeda
network is involved in a long-term program to create a wider and more coherent Islamic
world. "Already underway for a decade, with another decade in prospect before it
might be achieved, it is part of a much longer strategy that might stretch over half a
century."
—Prof. Paul Rogers of Bradford University, UK (FS 26:9/418)
• GLOBAL FASCISM AHEAD? "The dangers of
global fascism cannot be discounted as imaginary or alarmist."
—Prof. Richard A. Falk in The Declining World Order:
America's Imperial Geopolitics (FS 26:7/316)
• FIBER FARMS. A few very large international
corporations will increasingly dominate global markets in wood products. They will move
toward fiber farms of intensively managed engineered trees grown on short rotations. These
fiber farms "will certainly have the capacity to meet and grossly exceed global needs
for bulk wood fiber for the next century."
—David Lindermayer and Jerry Franklin on forest sustainability
(FS 26:7/306)
• IMPACT OF "NO CHILD LEFT BEHIND. NCLB systems
for evaluating public schools place great score-boosting pressures on teachers, usually
followed by unsound classroom instruction. Many students "will receive a far worse
education than they would otherwise be receiving," and NCLB will implode in several
years.
—UCLA assessment expert W. James Popham (FS 26:89/370)
• MONSTER QUAKE IN MIDWEST? The probability of
another huge quake in the New Madrid Seismic Zone in Missouri, similar to the three quakes
of 1811-1812, is roughly 20% between now and 2100. It could incur a cost of $1 trillion,
probably bankrupting some state and local governments.
—Jake Page and Dartmouth earth scientist Charles Officer on The
Big One (FS 26:7/311).
III. TOP TEN PROPOSALS from Future
Survey, Fall 2004
These preferable futures for a better society or a better world, from the July,
August, and September issues of Future Survey, have been selected as exemplary
visions worthy of consideration:
• BREAKTHROUGH SCENARIO. An ideal scenario for the 2005-2020
period, describing popular movements for peace, reform of the world monetary system, more
equitable distribution of recourses, widespread government and corporate reform, etc.
—Ervin Laszlo, Global Citizen's Handbook (FS 26:9/404)
• A FUTURE WORTH CREATING.
Eradicating disconnectedness in the global economy is "the defining security task of
our age…by expanding the connectivity of globalization, we increase peace and
prosperity worldwide…making globalization truly global…(is) a future worth
creating."
—Defense strategist Thomas P.M. Barnett, The Pentagon's New
Map (FS 26:9/407)
• OUSTING DICTATORS BY 2025. A plan to get rid
of the last 45 dictators in the world by 2025, because democracies provide more freedom
and better governance. "It is wrong to stand by and do nothing when people anywhere
on Earth are being brutally treated by the despots who rule them."
—Freedom House VP Mark Palmer, Breaking the Real Axis of
Evil (FS 26:7/321)
• COMMUNITARIAN APPROACH TO INTERNATIONAL
RELATIONS. A new layer of governance is needed, but one that differs from the
neo-conservative and hyper-liberal views. Emphasis is needed on enhancing community
building and on a convergence of interests.
—GWU Prof Amitai Etzioni, From Empire to Community (FS
26:7/320)
• STATE-BUILDING. "How to promote
governance of weak states, improve their democratic legitimacy, and strengthen
self-sustaining institutions…(is) the central project of contemporary international
politics…because weak or failed states are the source of many of the world's most
serious problems."
—Francis Fukuyama on governance and world order in the 21st
century (FS 26:7/322)
• ANTI-TERRORISM STRATEGY. A three-dimensional
strategy is proposed: attack terrorists and their organizations, prevent growth of
Islamist terrorism, and protect against and prepare for terrorist attacks on the US.
—The 9/11 Commission Report (FS 26:9/416)
• GIRL'S EDUCATION. Investing in girl's
education is "a strategy that will jump-start all other development goals."
There is no tool for development that is more effective.
—UNICEF Director Carol Bellamy, State of the World's
Children 2004 (FS 26:8/397)
• RETIRING RETIREMENT. "The concept of
retirement is outdated and should be put out to pasture in favor of a more flexible
approach to ongoing work—one that serves both employer and
employee."
—Aging expert Ken Dychtwald in Harvard Business Review (FS
26:8/386)
• REDESIGNING CITIES. Numerous proposals for
redesign of neighborhoods, transport, commercial corridors, historic districts, parks, and
public spaces to produce a more livable urban environment.
—Jonathan Barnett, U of Pennsylvania Prof of City and Regional
Planning (FS 26:7/339)
• NATURAL STEP FOR COMMUNITIES. Profiles
accomplishments of 60 Swedish communities that employed the Natural Step Approach toward
sustainability.
—Sara James and Torbjorn Lahti on how cities and towns can
change (FS 26:7/341)
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