Future Survey
September 2007

Volume 29, Number 9
A World Future Society Publication                   Editor: Michael Marien

ABSTRACT OF THE MONTH
HIGHLIGHTS
SYNTHESIS



 (Full citations and abstracts 09-301 through 09-350 in Future Survey September Issue)

HIGHLIGHTS

•  301/302 Transformative Initiatives
A Special Issue of Futures surveys five paths to transition and some of the significant and interesting initiatives in different parts of the world: the IPCC, the World Social Forum, socially responsible investing, Ashoka Fellows, the LEAD program, India’s Self-Employed Women’s Association, etc. The proposal to discuss revision and expansion of the Bill of Rights for 21C America could become such an initiative.

•  303 Knowledge Futures
Another Special Issue of Futures considers the emerging information/knowledge society as we enter the anthropocene epoch, new ways of thinking about uncertainty, new ways of learning and education for "strangers in a strange land," new tools for cognitive enhancement, an adequate "World Brain" organization of human benefit knowledge for the 21C, and building knowledge-based societies.

•  305 Valuing Ecosystem Services
Natural capital is no longer generally in surplus, so its conversion has a rising cost in the form of increasingly scarce ecosystem services. Its "Tragedy" is the systematic failure to reflect this cost in the value of property and public goods. An important frontier of revised thinking for the 21C. J.B. Ruhl, et al

•  317 Our Biotech Future
Long-range speculative thinking on the biotech industry following the path of computers and becoming domesticated and user-friendly, and the era of "Open Source biology" when gene manipulation will enable breeding of new crops and green tech. (Freeman Dyson)

•  325/326 LED Lighting Revolution Ahead
Light emitting diodes (LEDs) to replace inefficient incandescent lightbulbs, as well as compact fluorescent tubes and halogen lamps, are rapidly appearing. The key invention to launch the new solid-state lighting industry was made in 1993, and new plasmonic nanoparticles could greatly boost efficiency. Energy-saving LED lighting is being adopted in the Far East, notably through China’s Solid-State Lighting Program.

•  330 The Art of City Making
A sophisticated and inspiring tour of today's flawed cities, opening mindsets, blindspots in city making, the city as a living work of art, the world's creative cities, and imagination/courage as our greatest resources. (Charles Landry)

•  334, 338/339 Bloomberg, Boomburbs, and Hurricane Coasts
Three interesting urban developments in the US: the 25-year plan for a greener NYC proposed by Mayor Michael Bloomberg, the quiet rise of America’s accidental "boomburb" cities (pardon the irresistible word juxtaposition), and migration of the US population to the vulnerable "hurricane coasts" of the South Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico. 

•  341/345 Immigrants, Young Adults, and a Robust U.S.
Both immigrants and young adults are struggling with education and getting good jobs. "Homegrown investment" in a new labor force to replace retiring baby boomers, along with a wide-ranging program of universal national service, may well be the best direction to pursue in meeting the challenges of an aging society. 

•  339 America's Accidental Cities
Mesa, Arizona, is now bigger than Atlanta or Miami. It is one of 54 fast-growing "boomburbs" with population in the 100,000 to 400,000 range, a new type of city accounting for much US urban growth. (Lang/LeFurgy)

•  344 The Case for National Service
A Time Cover Feature offers a broad plan for voluntary universal national service, expanding existing programs and building a Health Corps, Green Corps, and Rapid-Response Reserve Corps. (Richard Stengel)

SYNTHESIS

Resource Destruction and Restoration

Ecosystem services have heretofore not been valued in economics, but as they become more precious, the economic playing field must be readjusted to an ecological-economic playing field (305). Meanwhile, land degradation continues worldwide, and in many places is accelerating (306). Proper land management is not only good for ecosystems but for reducing greenhouse gas emissions in what must become a low-carbon economy (307). Environmental degradation can be stopped and reversed (308). Restoration is especially attractive in desert/dryland areas, now accounting for 35% of global land area (309). Attention must increasingly be paid to water policy and the complexities of river basin management (310). Endangered species are still a concern, and new approaches are considered (311). One bold proposal is to restore big, wild animals to the Great Plains and Southwest in a securely fenced ecological history park (312). The deep part of the oceans—"one of the last great frontiers"—is still being discovered as threats to sealife grow (313). The world’s forests are endangered by illegal logging in many countries, and this difficult problem is addressed in great detail (314). One hopeful emerging model for conservation is community-based forest management (315).

Resource Creation, Biotech, and Ethical TA

Conservation and restoration efforts are all to be applauded, but we are also entering the "century of biology" when new biotech, especially when "domesticated" and made widely available like PCs and laptops, will dominate our lives (317). As blithely described by Freeman Dyson, the coming era of Open Source biology will move biotech into the mainstream of economic development, with new green tech pervading cities as well as the countryside (317). But hold on: will biotech really serve the human good? (318) Ethicists raise doubts, and ethical tech assessment from a secular perspective is also being proposed (319). The stem cell controversy is just one of many heated issues raised by biotech (320). Nanotechnology could raise serious questions, and might be banned or restricted (321), although it appears to be broadly moving ahead (322). Artificial intelligence is also making progress, and also raising serious ethical questions (323). Possibly brain-computer interfacing, too (324). One new technology that all of us can probably welcome is energy-saving LEDs (light emitting diodes); the solid-state lighting industry is quickly emerging (325), and may be boosted by use of plasmonic nanoparticles (326).

Urban Directions: Tech, Green Design, and Risk Reduction

Megacities now account for some 10% of world population, and new technologies help them thrive (329/330). But the art of good city making is not merely technology or land-use planning, but creativity and the arts (331). Indeed, not just cities, but "global city regions" are emerging as the "frontier of globalization." (332) Cities worldwide face major environmental challenges (333), and NYC is stepping forward with Mayor Bloomberg’s ambitious 25-year plan for a greener city (334). Green design is gaining acceptance, although barriers remain (335), and attention is increasingly paid to smart growth, livable communities, and regional equity (336). Many cities, especially in Africa and Asia, are vulnerable to extreme weather events resulting from climate change (337). In the US, population is shifting toward the increasingly vulnerable "hurricane coasts" (338).

Best Recent Books and Reports on WFS Website Best Recent Books and Reports, a continuously updated listing of 5-7 highly recommended items in each of 20 categories, to be posted on the WFS website: www.wfs.org/fsbest06.htm. The BRBR listing moves well beyond the static "Best Books" of the year listing, to be found in the annual Indexes and Source List supplement. The BRBR goes back over the past three or four years to highlight items that are still of great merit, while also moving forward into the current year to highlight very recent listings. Thus, at any one time, you can have quick access to an updated booklist of the best recent books and reports covered in Future Survey. Items are selected for breadth, importance, readability, authoritativeness, originality, and/or long-term perspective. In all, it should prove to be your best bet for "where to start" in 20 basic categories of futures-thinking. - MM

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