Future Survey
September 2004

Volume 26, Number 9
A World Future Society Publication           Editor: Michael Marien

CONTENTS
ABSTRACT OF THE MONTH
HIGHLIGHTS
SYNTHESIS



CONTENTS

   (Full citations and abstracts 04-401 through 04-450 in Future Survey September Issue)

HIGHLIGHTS

n 403 2004 State of the Future
The 8^th report of the Millennium Project, derived from participants in 20 regional nodes, updates 15 Global Challenges, and presents the annual State of the Future Index, plausible Mid-East peace scenarios, and emerging environmental security issues. (J.Glenn/T. Gordon)

n 407/410 World Governance Options
What sort of world regimes are probable, possible, and preferable? Michael Walzer sketches seven options on a continuum between a unified global state and total anarchy. W. Warren Wagar explores four options, choosing democratic world government as best. Anne-Marie Slaughter favors the emerging disaggregated world of government networks. Thomas P.M. Barnett favors a benign US leading globalization's Functioning Core.

n 417, 425/429 Is America Safer Since 9/11?
Many informed writers answer this major question of the presidential battle in the negative, arguing that al Qaeda is winning the strategic war, that the Iraq war has diverted attention from fighting terrorism, and that US infrastructure, borders, and agriculture remain vulnerable.

n 426 How Much Safer Could We Be?
Instead of spending $144 billion to date on the Iraq war, we could have invested $30 billion to secure the world's nuclear material from theft, $24 billion to add two divisions to the US Army, $11 billion to finance opium crop conversion in Afghanistan, $10 billion to increase US development assistance to the neediest countries, $10 billion to protect aircraft from shoulder-fired missiles, $7.5 billion to upgrade US ports, etc.

n 430 E-Govt. Global Report
World Public Sector Report describes UN Survey of 191 countries, of which 173 now use the Internet, some far more than others. The important question is whether "public value" is being created. (UN Dept of Econ/Social Affairs)

n 435 Where to Get More Money for Security?
"Wealthfare" giveaways to corporations and wealthy individuals are estimated at $815 billion in 2003, including $85 billion in Social Security tax inequities, $137 billion in tax avoidance by transnationals, $90 billion from lower taxes on capital gains, $224 billion in military waste and fraud, $30 billion for agribiz subsidies, etc.

n 444/445 Drinking and Other Drug Abuse
About 30% of high school seniors drink heavily at least once a month, with many negative consequences. And illicit use of mind-altering drugs continues, despite massive efforts to control it. Sensible strategies are proposed to reduce underage drinking and discourage student drug use.

n 439 Health System Performance
Health systems in all OECD countries show evidence of serious shortcomings. Promising directions for improvement include better access to care, managing costs and sounder financing to boost efficiency, and improve performance.  (OECD Health Project)

SYNTHESIS

World Governance Alternatives

World population is projected to grow 45% by 2050, to 9.3 billion people, with growth rates differing widely between regions, from 184% in Middle Africa to -19% in Eastern Europe (401). The Millennium Project again reminds us of 15 Global Challenges we face (402). The Humanity 3000 seminar offers a wide range of views (403). Ervin Laszlo presents a basic "global citizen's handbook" (404). Wendell Bell urges us to focus on humanity's common values (405). Gary Hart offers a new grand strategy for the US based on national principle (406). A high-minded view within the framework of Pentagon thinking promotes more globalization and "a future worth creating" (407). If we view the world through the lenses of disaggregated states, the real and desirable new world order of government networks is emerging (408). Such "Third Degree Global Pluralism" may be the best compromise between a centralized global state and today's anarchy (409). But W. Warren Wagar argues that a democratic world government is still the best option (410).

U.S. Vulnerability: High? Very High? Extremely High?

The best-selling 9/11 Commission Report (416) calls for a three-dimensional strategy: attack terrorists and their organizations, prevent continued growth of Islamist terrorism, and guard the US homeland against terrorist attacks. However much effort is made, this huge multi-faceted task will never be finished. That said, how are we doing so far? A top CIA analyst argues that we are losing the strategic war to al Qaeda (417). WMD counterproliferation policies have not been overhauled (420). Some 2500 US nuclear weapons remain on hair-trigger alert, and new nuclear weapons are being designed (421). A RAND report warns that more nuclear players and new types of players may make defense more difficult (422). Many informed analysts think the war in Iraq has undermined the war on terror, increasing the threats America faces (425). Stephen Flynn warns that America's critical infrastructure (ports, chemical plants, etc) is vulnerable (427). A Time Cover Feature reports that US borders are ever more porous (428). Finally, the US is vulnerable to agricultural bioterrorism, and needs a comprehensive plan to meet this threat (429).

Government Promises and Problems

Perhaps the most promising development in government worldwide is the advent of e-government, which could increase efficiency, usefulness, and participation (430/A further step, "intelligent government," could create a safer world and automatic law enforcement in many areas (431). But basic principles for government organization are needed for 21C (433), and David Orr rightly complains of "a leadership vacuum on the big issues of our time" (434). The US government gives away $815 billion a year in "wealthfare" to corporations and rich individuals (435), and a crisis in tax administration could encourage more scofflaws (436). Many aspects of voting are unfair (437), and direct record electronic (DRE) voting machines may cause even more problems (438).

Health Promises and Problems

Health systems can be improved in all OECD countries (439). In the US, the IOM (Institute of Medicine) advocates a new standard for patient safety (440), creating a safer work environment for nurses (441), and a more "health-literate America" (442). Michael Porter, offers a fresh look at redefining competition in US health care (443). Proposals are made to reduce underage drinking (444), and student drug use (445). And global responses are proposed to monitor infectious diseases (446) and respond to AIDS (447). All good ideas, but will they be seriously pursued?

New! See Future Survey's Top 10 for Summer 2004    Trends, Forecasts, and Proposals

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