Future Survey
October 2007

Volume 29, Number 10
A World Future Society Publication                   Editor: Michael Marien

ABSTRACT OF THE MONTH
HIGHLIGHTS
SYNTHESIS



 (Full citations and abstracts 09-351 through 09-400 in Future Survey October Issue)

HIGHLIGHTS

•  351/352 State of the Future Index vs. Vital Signs
The AC/UNU/WFUNA Index, constructed with 29 "key variables," finds overall that the world is improving, but not as rapidly as in recent years. The Worldwatch Institute collection of "Vital Signs"—27 Key Indicators and 17 Special Features—concludes that many ecological systems are in great danger. It all depends which indicators one looks at.

•  353 2007 World Population Data
Annual PRB Data Sheet offers an easy/reliable way to scan the latest projections. By 2050, world population is expected to grow from 6.6 billion now to 9.3 billion, the US from 302 million to 420 million, China from 1.32 to 1.44 billion, and India from 1.13 to 1.75 billion, while Europe drops from 733 to 669 million. (Carl Haub)

•  366/370 Avoiding Environmental Catastrophe
Sentiment seems to be growing that some very large "Apollo-like" effort is needed to address global warming and related issues. A holistic "middle path" surveys the many problems, explanations, and proposals. Two environmentalists urge a new politics of possibility. Newt Gingrich offers a "Contract with the Earth." Should we pursue the six key environmental principles? Or is reducing investment risk the key?

•  368 A Contract with the Earth
The conservative author of Contract with America over a decade ago now offers five principles and ten commitments to protect the natural world and solve pollution problems. Intriguing despite uniquely US high tech/free enterprise viewpoint. (Gingrich/Maple) 

•  374/376 China's "Great Leap Backward"?
FS has pointed to China’s environmental problems many times, but despite new policies and rising green consciousness the problems are worsening, according to a detailed OECD report and articles in Foreign Affairs and The New York Times. Will this unfolding disaster derail China’s remarkable economic growth? And prove to be a world-shaking exception to the economist’s glib maxim that "richer is greener"?

•  384 Democracy in the Future
A leading Finnish futurist notes many challenges to democracy and three competing models: neo-liberal, Asian, and European. Three scenarios: global democracy, ascendant market-liberal thinking, or culturally different regions. (Mika Mannermaa)

•  386/387 Infrastructure to 2030: Huge Challenges
The OECD Futures Programme takes stock of long-term challenges in OECD countries and other large economies, as concerns the water sector, telecoms infrastructure, urban public transport, long-term rail freight, road transport, and investment in electricity when the world may need twice as much as today. Nowhere is current policy adequate to these challenges. An essential report.

•  390/400 New Dimensions in Leadership
Public and private leaders face many challenges, best addressed by data-driven policymaking, evidence-based management, effective risk management, innovation in management methods, planning by idealized design, leadership legacy visioning, leadership for a knowledge age, and better use of foresight, forecasts, and peripheral vision.

SYNTHESIS

World Indicators and Visions

Is humanity making progress? The Millennium Project assembles 29 key variables, finding mixed results (351). The Worldwatch Institute presents its collection of 27 key environment-oriented indicators, with a more worrisome result (352). World population, now at 6.63 billion, is expected to grow by 40% to 9.30 billion in 2050—slightly more than recent projections (353). Marked gains or losses are expected in many regions and nations (353), and migration is clearly increasing (354/355). The OECD proposes that migration be seen as an emerging system of international labor mobility (356). Immigration continues as a hot issue in the US; perhaps we should try to guide it rather than stop it (357). Globalization not only enhances labor mobility, but dwarfs all political units, such that few new states are likely to be created (358). Another major factor in human affairs is the disastrous Iraq War and its many unfolding implications, which include weakening US hegemony (359). The US still has a "second chance" at constructive global leadership, but it will take years of effort and skill (360). In the very long run, an interesting "ecstatic vision" of "human flowering" over the next 1,000 years is provided (361), but participants in the Humanity 3000 seminar have more mixed views of setbacks and challenges (362). Looking outward beyond our planet, a successful SETI detection would change humanity’s view of itself in the long run (363). Looking backward to our origins, humanity’s self-image may also change from new archaeological discoveries in the next 50 years (364).

Environment: Huge Changes, Huge Response?

To appreciate the human impact on the world, consider "the world without us," a clever thought experiment (365). To avoid this possible scenario and environmental catastrophe in general, major social and economic reforms will be needed over the next several decades (366), and a new "politics of possibility" should guide us (367). Somewhat related is a new Newt Gingrich "Contract," this time with Earth (368). Or is it wiser to follow the six major and widely-accepted principles (sustainability, polluter pays, human rights, etc.) of relevance to environmental issues? (369) Is some synthesis possible? Can the necessary transition be accelerated by lowering investment risk? (370). Will California’s ambitious Global Warming Solutions Act of 2006 serve as a global model? (371). Voluntary environmental programs in the US, Europe, and Japan appear to have a limited effect (373). China's very severe environmental damage from its heated economic growth is still worsening because of enforcement problems (374/376). The thawing Arctic region will be transformed into a major component of the global economy (377). Oceans worldwide are in peril, and an ecosystem approach is required (378).

 

Governance: Evolving Complexities

Emerging forms of environmental regulation exemplify ever-growing complexities in governance (380); also, new forms of public management [e.g., "collaborarchies"] (381), new forms of decentralization (382), and transparency policies (383). Democracy will face many future challenges (384). A major challenge faced by all nations will be providing adequate infrastructure (water, electricity, transportation, telecoms) in the decades ahead (386/387).

Best Recent Books and Reports on WFS Website Best Recent Books and Reports, a continuously updated listing of 5-7 highly recommended items in each of 20 categories, to be posted on the WFS website: www.wfs.org/fsbest06.htm. The BRBR listing moves well beyond the static "Best Books" of the year listing, to be found in the annual Indexes and Source List supplement. The BRBR goes back over the past three or four years to highlight items that are still of great merit, while also moving forward into the current year to highlight very recent listings. Thus, at any one time, you can have quick access to an updated booklist of the best recent books and reports covered in Future Survey. Items are selected for breadth, importance, readability, authoritativeness, originality, and/or long-term perspective. In all, it should prove to be your best bet for "where to start" in 20 basic categories of futures-thinking. - MM

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