Future Survey
November 2007

Volume 29, Number 11
A World Future Society Publication                   Editor: Michael Marien

ABSTRACT OF THE MONTH
HIGHLIGHTS
SYNTHESIS



 (Full citations and abstracts 09-401 through 09-450 in Future Survey November Issue)

HIGHLIGHTS

•  401/407 U.S. and the World: Candidates' Visions
The vision of the next US president, as concerns terrorism, energy, and foreign relations, will be an important factor in shaping the world ahead. The three leading candidates in both Republican and Democratic parties have published their statements in Foreign Affairs, and a leading second-tier candidate offers a provocative book centered on energy. There is a difference between the parties, but not much within them.

•  409 World Energy Outlook 2006
Authoritative 596p report warns that fossil fuels will still dominate in 2030, CO₂ emissions will climb, energy security is threatened, and bringing modern energy to the world’s poor is urgent. Prompt action on new policies would pay big dividends. (OECD/IEA)

•  411 Impacts of $120/Barrel Oil
If oil prices should stay near $120 barrel for a year, economic impacts would encompass a severe global recession, reduced spending in all categories, fewer airline routes, inflation at 6-8%, household energy bills doubling, and a 25% decline in stock valuations worldwide. (Robert F. Wescott)

•  414 Biofuels for Transport
Everything you ought to know—or ponder—about biofuels: global industry trends, new technologies and energy crops, long-term production potentials, key econ/social/environmental issues, introduction strategies, country case studies, and more. (Worldwatch Inst)

•  421/427 China, India, Russia: Growth and Constraints
China, the world’s leading economy centuries ago, may once again be number one by 2015. India is also growing fast, and is now the world’s third largest economy—and it may have 2 billion people by 2070. Both China and India face daunting energy/environment problems, however. Russia is also growing economically, due to high oil prices, but still faces ill health and a declining population.

•  432/437 Business in a Globalizing World
The world is still "semiglobalized," and business must be cautious in developing global strategies. Government opacity varies widely, and the Opacity Index measures this risk to cross-border business. The need for government transparency is matched by pressures for more corporate transparency and counterbalances to growing business power in global governance. Underserved markets offer great potential, and social response capitalism can help create a better world.

•  439 Marketing Discrimination
Shopping in America was once relatively fair and simple, with prices clear to all. But database-driven marketing is changing that. Consumers increasingly feel manipulated by tailored advertising and prices keyed to perceived market niche. (Joseph Turow)

•  443/445 U.S. Healthcare: Universal Coverage Soon?
Most current thinking about the overly expensive US healthcare "system" points toward some form of universal coverage. Three well-articulated schemes: Arnold Relman’s universal coverage plan, George Halvorson’s Universal Coverage Now, and Laurence Kotlikoff’s intriguing Medical Security System based on insurance vouchers for all, adjusted annually.

SYNTHESIS

Foreign Policy Visions of 7 Presidential Candidates

Six Foreign Affairs essays and a book by the leading US presidential candidates suggest what we might expect in the post-Bush years. Giuliani and McCain still seek to "win" the war on terror, while all of the Democrats seek a quick end to the Iraq War. All candidates of both parties seek a stronger or rebuilt military. McCain, Obama, and Clinton explicitly mention reducing the nuclear threat. Romney and McCain seek energy independence, while Richardson offers a "2020 Vision" for an energy revolution (407). McCain, Obama, Edwards, and Richardson stress US leadership in world affairs. Some explicit proposals: a Partnership for Prosperity and Progress in the Islamic world (Romney, 401), a Stabilization and Reconstruction Corps (Giuliani, 402), a worldwide League of Democracies to complement the UN (McCain, 403), a Global Education Fund to strengthen our common security and common humanity (Obama, 404), a Global Development Act and a Marshall Corps of civilian experts deployed abroad (Edwards, 405), an Education for All Act to train teachers in LDCs and an E-8 forum of the major carbon-emitting nations (Clinton, 406), and the US as a beacon of a new energy future by 2020 (Richardson, 407).

The Great Energy Challenge

Bill Richardson is right: "no challenge is greater or more important than gaining energy security and addressing threats to Earth as a whole" (407). Despite efficiency improvements, total energy use in IEA countries, as well as CO₂ emissions, both increased by 14% between 1990 and 2004 (408). The IEA’s Energy Outlook warns that energy demand and CO₂ emissions will continue to increase, requiring massive investment, and that threats to energy security are growing (409). The US National Petroleum Council, also looking out to 2030, warns of accumulating risks and the need to expand all economic energy sources (410). If oil prices rise to $120/barrel, a severe global recession is likely (411). We are entering an age of oil insufficiency, forcing a shift to nonpetroleum fuels (412). Both oil sands in Alberta (413) and biofuels (414) become more profitable as oil prices rise. Robert Zubrin makes a spirited case for flex-fuel cars as an international standard and achieving energy independence within a decade (415). In any event, a great global race is clearly under way to fuel future cars (416). Parallel to accelerating interest in biofuels and electric cars is a nuclear energy revival in the US and expected nuclear growth in other non-European countries (417/419). In the longer term, the energy focus will likely shift to space solar power, nanotech, and zero-point energy (420). This evolution could be hastened by an IPCC-like Intergovernmental Panel on Energy (420).

The Great US Healthcare Challenge

The very expensive US healthcare "system" is quite unlike that of any other OECD country, and increasingly makes the US uncompetitive. Some "fix" is needed (443). Support for some sort of universal coverage, similar to that of other countries, includes: a detailed history shows how the US got its "healthcare mess" (442), analysis of why we need universal coverage to control costs (443/444), how to overcome the "massive data deficit" that inhibits effective medical practice (444), a proposed single payer health insurance system (445), and other alternatives to control costs (446). Catholic ethicists apply teachings of the church to US healthcare issues (447). One of the major problems of US healthcare is "overtreatment" due to a variety of factors, notably financial incentives of the current system (448). The rise of treatments for "depressive disorder" is a case in point (449). On the other hand, dental problems are undertreated (450).

Best Recent Books and Reports on WFS Website Best Recent Books and Reports, a continuously updated listing of 5-7 highly recommended items in each of 20 categories, to be posted on the WFS website: www.wfs.org/fsbest06.htm. The BRBR listing moves well beyond the static "Best Books" of the year listing, to be found in the annual Indexes and Source List supplement. The BRBR goes back over the past three or four years to highlight items that are still of great merit, while also moving forward into the current year to highlight very recent listings. Thus, at any one time, you can have quick access to an updated booklist of the best recent books and reports covered in Future Survey. Items are selected for breadth, importance, readability, authoritativeness, originality, and/or long-term perspective. In all, it should prove to be your best bet for "where to start" in 20 basic categories of futures-thinking. - MM

Next Month in Future Survey
Security Global Economy	Education Work

Return to top



WFS    
 
COPYRIGHT © 2007 WORLD FUTURE SOCIETY
7910 Woodmont Avenue, Suite 450, Bethesda, Maryland 20814.
Tel. 301-656-8274. E-mail info@wfs.org. Web site http://www.wfs.org.
All rights reserved.