Future Survey
November 2004

Volume 26, Number 11
A World Future Society Publication           Editor: Michael Marien

CONTENTS
ABSTRACT OF THE MONTH
HIGHLIGHTS
SYNTHESIS



CONTENTS

   (Full citations and abstracts 04-501 through 04-550 in Future Survey November Issue)

HIGHLIGHTS

n 501/509 Globalization Pro and Con
The "great divide" between America's red and blue states is equalled or exceeded on the global stage by the pro- and anti-globalization dispute. A wide assortment of views can illuminate: the defenders of globalization (all rich-country economists) vs. critics from the poor countries, the global justice movement, the Green Party, and futurists offering new paradigms.

n 512 The Future of Islam
A leading Islamic scholar describes six major tendencies within Islam, and argues that Western Muslims can play a decisive role in the future of Islam and its relations with the West. A sophisticated, positive view. (Tariq Ramadan)

n 515 Democracy in the Middle East?
The US wants Middle East democracy only up to a point, progress toward democracy in Iraq is minimal sofar, many Arabs now see democracy as code word for US occupation, the Jan 2005 election will likely be seen as flawed, more democracy will not result in less extremism, and moderate Islamist parties will be integral to democratization.

n 518 Exiting Iraq
A 10-member Task Force views prospects for creating liberal democracy in Iraq as "bleak," and urges a prompt end to the US military occupation. Provocative analysis from a libertarian perspective. (Cato Institute)

n 526/527 Surveys of Democratization and Press Freedom
The annual Freedom House surveys of democracy in East Central Europe and Eurasia and media independence in the world highlight two disturbing but parallel trends: the non-Baltic post-Soviet states are moving away from democracy and toward a possible new Iron Curtain, and press freedom worldwide suffered a "substantial decline" in 2003.

n 529 Intelligent Internet
The TechCast project expects many commercial Internet applications will reach 30% "take-off" levels in this decade (including B2B, e-training, e-tailing, online publishing, public services, and finance), rejuvenating the economy.  (William E. Halal)

n 531 VIVO Talking Computers
Longer-term trends point to voice-in/voice-out computers making text/written language obsolete by 2050, as speech and graphics replace reading and writing and bring back an oral culture, democratizing information flows worldwide. Very interesting—and plausible.  (William Crossman)

n 539/540 OECD on Privacy and Corporate Governance
The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development not only conducts valuable and timely studies, but also issues best practice guidelines in important areas, suggesting the direction that policy will take, or ought to take. Two examples are guidelines for online privacy protection and a revised set of corporate governance principles.

n 546 Strategic Vision
Identifies six megachanges sweeping through business today, describes five steps to shape a company's future, outlines leadership disciplines, and shows how to establish a meaningful "bridge to the future" vision.  (Gelgard/Rayner)

n 547/548 Morality is Good Business
It seems like a do-good idealistic luxury, but two authors make a strong case that one can and should do "good work" in business without compromising convictions. William Damon points to four dimensions of business morality (generative, empathic, restrictive, philanthropic), while Moses Pava discusses covenant leadership based on the Bible.

n 550 Rebuilding Non-Profits
Public confidence in nonprofits is declining, not because they have poor programs, but because their programs are inefficient. Organizational capacity-building clearly helps, and proposals are offered to improve the odds of success and the spiral of sustainable excellence.  (Paul C. Light)

SYNTHESIS

Globalization Defended and Critiqued

Economists under the auspices of the National Bureau of Economic Research offer a thorough analysis of what they see as "continuing disagreement and misunderstanding," finding that most criticisms are not major systemic problems (501). Other economists from the US and UK offer a more popularized defense of globalization: Martin Wolf of the Financial Times (502), Jagdish Bhagwati of Columbia U (503), Philippe Legrain of the UK (503), and Kent Jones of Babson College defending the WTO (504). In contrast, Bhagirath Lal Das questions the WTO (504), G24 economists challenge the World Bank and IMF (505), Susan George explains the global justice movement (506), and the two Principal Speakers of the UK Green Party offer a "manifesto" for promoting economic localization (506). Two futurists offer new paradigms for world trade and the global economy (Hazel Henderson, 508) and for money and finance (James Robertson, 509). Geoffrey Garrett of UCLA avoids the pro/con debate, while pointing out a worrisome trend of middle income countries as globalization losers (510). William W. Lewis of the McKinsey Global Institute ignores globalization, offering the neoliberal argument that bloated government in poor countries is the key problem (511). This is only an introduction to the globalization "debate," a crucial issue that deserves far more actual debating.

Futures for Islam, the Middle East, and Iraq

In addition to globalization, problems in the Middle East and Iraq are one of the major issues of the moment. Two books describe the global condition of Islam and its several strands of thought (512/513), and a RAND report offers not only a summary of four essential positions in the Islamic mix, but a strategy for encouraging positive change in the Islamic world (514). But democracy in the Middle East may be far more problematic than many think (515). Despite problems, Henry Kissinger and Larry Diamond urge the US to continue efforts to promote democracy in Iraq (516/517). But a Cato Institute Task Force views prospects for liberal democracy in Iraq as "bleak" and urges prompt US military withdrawal (518). A wide-ranging program of reconstruction has been proposed for Afghanistan (519), but "opportunities have been lost, goodwill squandered, and lessons of history ignored" (520). Iran looms as the next trouble spot in the Middle East, and a war game strongly advises against US military action (521). But all is not lost. A quiet and positive Islamic revolution is underway in Indonesia, the world's largest Muslim country (522). Like globalization, this key problem area deserves far more serious debate over alternative perceptions and futures than has been the case.

Communication Trends and Issues

Press freedom worldwide is declining (527) and media reform even in the US may become an issue (528). In contrast to these gloomy findings, the promise of smart computers and e-commerce in the next decade is dazzling (529), as well as the new cell phone/smart card combos (530). Further ahead, talking computers may enable transition to an oral/aural culture by 2050 (531), although others see transition to a visual culture (532). Infotech has surely had an economic impact so far, although its full potential is still unknown (533). The information revolution is underway in developing countries, creating a major digital divide (534). Even in the US, an effort could and should be made to create an inclusive information society (535). Civil society is also benefiting from cyberspace (536), and the workplace has been transformed for better and worse (537). A literature review of the infoglut problem draws together causes, effects, and remedies (538).

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