Future Survey
March 2008

Volume 30, Number 3
A World Future Society Publication                   Editor: Michael Marien

ABSTRACT OF THE MONTH
HIGHLIGHTS
SYNTHESIS



 (Full citations and abstracts 30-051 through 30-100 in Future Survey March Issue)

HIGHLIGHTS

n 052 World Energy Outlook 2007
Projected global energy demand to 2030 is higher than before, while supply and emis­sions trends worsen.  China and India, together will account for nearly half of all growth in world energy demand between 2005 and 2030.  (Intl. Energy Agency)

n 054, 058/061 Fresh Ways to Think About Energy
The US must make major decisions about the energy challenge.  Five ways to do so: a strategy to end US oil addiction, an integrated and expanded approach to energy R&D, adopting a bold plan for switching to solar power by 2050, rethinking potential transportation revolutions, and a new paradigm of electricity as a function of infrastructure rather than as a commodity. 

n 056, 084/085 Energy and Health Care Goals
What do US energy policy and health care policy have in common?  Both are very complex and important issues.  Many seek energy independence from foreign oil.  Many others want “comprehensive” health care reform or “universal” health care.  Quite separate arguments that both are impossible goals should not necessarily dissuade us, but may encourage us to try harder, or try something different.  (items )

n 065  Fifty Years from Today
Sixty brief essays assembled by a famous TV journalist.  Some are quite good, notably from top researchers in human genome research and immunology, and leaders of Google, Interpol, the World Water Policy Project, etc.  A good intro.  (Mike Wallace, ed)

n 066  Small Forces, Big Changes
These 75 “Micro-trends” assembled by Hillary Clinton's senior advisor offer a fascinating look at changes that may be shaping tomorrow, while also driving America to “fly apart at a record pace.”    (Mark J. Penn)

n 073  Beyond Black and White
The limiting white/black cultural construct is challenged by America’s growing diversity, especially immigrants and fusions (“mixed- race” Americans, and “none of the aboves”). To end racial bias, we must do more to foster human solidarity.  (Ronald  Fernandez)

n 075/078 New Life Worlds and Life Spans
The “life worlds” of today's young adults are changingdelayed marriage, fewer children, uncertain workas is the course of adulthood and organization of life stages.  At the same time, “the longevity revolution” brings new challenges and opportunities worldwide, requiring a revision in our construct of “old age” and health care.        
                                                                            
n 079/085 Health Care Reform Options
If American health care is “the world's best,” albeit the world's most expensive, we can relax somewhat.  But if it doesn't measure up to the outcomes in other countries, reform becomes more urgent.  The problem in the US is many competing proposals for reform and many groups with veto power.  Could a new Federal Health Board help?  

n 090  Global Tech Revolution 2020
Of 56 applications seen as possible by 2020, 16 likely to be widely available, and affecting multiple sectors, include cheap solar energy, GM crops, water purifying devices, targeted drug delivery, cheap housing, hybrid vehicles, green manufacturing, etc. (RAND)

n 092  The Post-Scientific Society
A new era is at hand, where the leading edge of innovation will move from the lab and the workshop to the office, the think tank, and cyberspace. This is simply the latest working out of the logic of comparative advantage among  nations.   (Christopher T. Hill)

n 096/0099 Next Steps in Space
The OECD Futures Programme presents the first-ever overview of the emerging “space economy,” showing who is doing what.  Next steps in space exploration include the Constellation-Orion program for transport to and from the moon, probes to seek out life on Mars, interstellar probes, more effective propulsion systems, reducing space travel expenses, and searching for life in the universe. 

SYNTHESIS

 Energy: Grand Problems, Grand Options

Global energy use rose nearly tenfold in the 20C, and “substantially higher” demand seems likely (051), especially due to the development momentum of China and India (052).  Business planners are encouraged by GBN and the EPA to use scenarios to fashion their energy strategy: The Same Road, The Long Road, The Broken Road, and the Fast Road (053).  A scenario-like approach of various memos written to the next US President explains how the US can end its foreign oil dependency (054), a strategy given greater urgency by considering all of the costs of dependency (055).  “Hogwash” says a contrarian Texan, who questions the “false promises” of energy independence: the US is married to fossil fuels and it won't change soon (056).  Change is attempted by corn-based ethanol, but this policy is questionable (057).  A better approach is a new strategy for integrated energy R&D (058).  Better still, perhaps, we should move ahead with a grand plan for solar energy through 2050 (059), consider the transportation revolutions now on the horizon (060),. or develop a new paradigm for electricity, focused on a decentralized system (061).  While renewables hold much promise, don't overlook the demonstrated potential of very low emissions from new coal- and gas-fired power plants (062).  On the other hand, enthusiasm for  “the hydrogen economy”  now seems decidedly on the wane (063).

Society: Grand Ideas, Tough Issues

Is there any consensus on “the future of The American idea”?  None at all, but some responses are worth noting (064).  A popularized volume with “60 of the world's greatest minds” speculating on the way we will be in 2058 offers some interesting forecasts and visions (065).  But don't lose sight of the many small “microtrends” that may well be behind tomorrow's big changes (066).  Many of these microtrends are positive, but some negative trends are worth consideration: the new ethos of infantilization (067) and the related surge of anti-intellectualism (068), reflected in a superficial “Platform for America” that promises “real change” (069).  Other issues deserving reflection include the growth of the “total surveillance society” (070), gun control (071), the growth of casino gambling and its social costs (072), rethinking the racial divide (073), embracing same-gender relationships (074), the changing life worlds of today's younger adults (075), navigating the new adulthood (076), inheritance trends (077), and the longevity revolution (078).

Health Care Reform Alternatives

America's per capita health care spending is far above that of other advanced nations (079), but outcomes are not necessarily betterand often worse (080).  What to do?  Conservatives push individual health accounts (069, 081/082), an economist emphasizes electronic medical records as the foundation for everything else (082), a doctor argues for universal coverage (083; also see FS 29:11/442-445), and Sen. Tom Daschle favors a Federal Health Board beyond politics to “break the legislative logjam” (084).  Two other problems that should be addressed are the corrupting relationship of the medical profession and the pharmaceutical industry (086), and sensibly dealing with the growing number of disabled Americans (087), especially due to the Iraq War (088).  Contrast the not-so-glamorous challenge of helping the disabled with the glamorous (but controversial) possibilities of human genetic enhancement (088)

Best Recent Books and Reports on WFS Website Best Recent Books and Reports, a continuously updated listing of 5-7 highly recommended items in each of 20 categories, to be posted on the WFS website: www.wfs.org/fsbest06.htm. The BRBR listing moves well beyond the static "Best Books" of the year listing, to be found in the annual Indexes and Source List supplement. The BRBR goes back over the past three or four years to highlight items that are still of great merit, while also moving forward into the current year to highlight very recent listings. Thus, at any one time, you can have quick access to an updated booklist of the best recent books and reports covered in Future Survey. Items are selected for breadth, importance, readability, authoritativeness, originality, and/or long-term perspective. In all, it should prove to be your best bet for "where to start" in 20 basic categories of futures-thinking. - MM

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