Future Survey
March 2007

Volume 29, Number 3
A World Future Society Publication                   Editor: Michael Marien

ABSTRACT OF THE MONTH
HIGHLIGHTS
SYNTHESIS



 (Full citations and abstracts 07-051 through 07-100 in Future Survey March Issue)

HIGHLIGHTS

n 061/062 Emerging "Metacities"
In 2008 more than half of humanity—some 3.2 billion people—will be living in cities, including not only megacities but massive "metacities" or "hypercities" of >20 million people. Tokyo is the first metacity, with Mumbai, Delhi, and Mexico City to follow by 2010. By 2020, the group will include Sao Paulo, New York, Dhaka, Jakarta, and Lagos.

n 063 Financing Urban Shelter
Developing countries will have some 2 billion new urban residents in the next 25 years, adding to housing demands by the billion people now living in slums. Adequate affordable shelter for the poor requires both lowering costs and boosting incomes. (UN-Habitat)

n 065/068 Four Very Different Cities
Contrast the chaos and poverty in Lagos (the world’s third largest city by 2015) with the opulence and new megaprojects of Dubai, or the massive rebuilding in Shanghai, which seeks to be one of the global economy’s top cities. Brazil’s Porto Alegre, although not especially large, has become notable for its unique participatory budget process. (items)

n 076/078 E-Government & CeCs for the Poor
Many governments worldwide are rapidly improving their e-service delivery. In the Asia/Pacific region, national governments are developing strategies for e-governance and for community e-centers ("CeCs," a.k.a. "tele-cottages" or "information kiosks") in rural areas, which are springing up at a rapid rate—and could give a huge boost to development.

n 081/085 Blogs & Mobile Phones vs. Malware & Botnets
Blogging proliferates in politics and business, and mobile phones worldwide surpassed fixed lines in 2003, and are still growing rapidly. But mobile "malware" may quickly become a greater problem than PC viruses, while "zombie computers" or botnets are also a growing threat.

n 083 Mobile Phones and Society
Global study of mobile communications' rapid spread between 2000 and 2004, noting trends (youth as pacesetter, relentless connectivity, instant communities) and exploring impacts on the network society. (Manuel Castells, et al.)

n 092/100 New Learning Frontiers
Benefits of early childhood education are increasingly recognized. New technologies are enabling new learning at home, in school, and in higher education. Adult learners have an abundance of guidelines for thinking about the future and promoting organization and community change. Agile leaders must anticipate change, and skepticism is needed more than ever.

n 096 Thinking About the Future
A set of 115 guidelines for strategic foresight is systematically organized in six sequential categories: Framing, Scanning, Forecasting, Visioning, Planning, and Acting. Tips on nearly every futures study method and caveat, from 36 professional futurists. (Andy Hines/Peter Bishop)

n 098 The Change Handbook
Hefty 723-page guide to 61 planning and structuring methods that can enable organizations and communities to better promote preferred futures. Includes advice on how to select, mix, and match.(Holman/Devane/Cady, eds.)

SYNTHESIS

New Dimensions for Development

A survey of 50 key thinkers on development serves as appropriate background (051). Today’s promising new ideas for betterment of much of humanity are not as attached to individual thinkers. The Germany-based Global Marshall Plan Initiative is a collective effort to build on the UN Millennium Goals (052). The myriad pressures for ethical markets, global corporate citizenship, and sustainable lifestyles bubble up from below (053). Linkage has finally been made between reducing poverty and building peace (054). Numerous thinkers seek to reform the World Bank, perhaps creating a Global Public Goods Trust Fund (055). Global Development Bonds are also very promising (057). The private sector (large enterprises, small and medium-size enterprises, and microenterprises) is now seen to have a critical role in transforming the development landscape (057). Globalization continues, according to the 6^th annual Globalization Index (060). Urbanization also continues, expected to rise from 47.1% in 2000 to 60.8% in 2030 (063). This shifts the focus of development thinking toward urban settings and affordable shelter (061/063). Yet another new dimension of special importance is the advent of e-government (076), with emphasis on outreach to the poor (077), especially through community e-centers in rural areas (078), which may stanch migration to cities.

Rich Cities, Poor Cities, Green Cities, Good Cities

The world’s cities are hubs for both rich and poor, and meeting needs of the urban poor is one of the great 21C challenges (061). Most countries are losing the race to halt or reverse the growth of slums (062). The problem of affordable housing for the poor must be addressed by reducing housing costs and increasing purchasing power (063). Even in the US, there is a growing affordable housing gap, underscoring the question: Where are poor people to live? (064) Perhaps the worst case of urban poverty, aggravated by official corruption for a long period, is Lagos (065). In stark contrast, the oil-rich are clustering in Abu Dhabi and, especially Dubai (066). Shanghai is also rising as China’s "head of the dragon" (067). In the US, the rich and highly educated are congregating in a small number of metro regions (069). Everywhere, cities are greening to some degree (061, 071). Some are leading while others lag in the "technology economy" (070) and thinking about design for "the good life" (071). Also, religious congregations (072) and business partnerships (073) have much to contribute to "growing local value" and quality of life.

Communication Hopes, Fears, and Issues

E-government is rapidly spreading and strengthening worldwide (076). Designing e-government for the poor (077) and building rural telecenters (078) is widespread in the Asia/Pacific region. This is certainly a hopeful sign. But the "new media age" in developed countries, where visual culture is taking over at the expense of the written world, is a trend both hoped and feared (079). Newspaper circulation is falling sharply (080), and blogging is rising (081/082). Mobile phones are also rapidly expanding (083), but as they morph into smartphones they invite dangerous viruses (084). The Internet has been bedeviled by viruses, and the problem is worsening as "zombie" botnets evolve faster than security firms can respond (085). In addition, "click fraud" may limit the growth of online advertising (086).

Best Recent Books and Reports on WFS Website Best Recent Books and Reports, a continuously updated listing of 5-7 highly recommended items in each of 20 categories, to be posted on the WFS website: www.wfs.org/fsbest06.htm. The BRBR listing moves well beyond the static "Best Books" of the year listing, to be found in the annual Indexes and Source List supplement. The BRBR goes back over the past three or four years to highlight items that are still of great merit, while also moving forward into the current year to highlight very recent listings. Thus, at any one time, you can have quick access to an updated booklist of the best recent books and reports covered in Future Survey. Items are selected for breadth, importance, readability, authoritativeness, originality, and/or long-term perspective. In all, it should prove to be your best bet for "where to start" in 20 basic categories of futures-thinking. - MM

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