Future Survey
June 2007

Volume 29, Number 6
A World Future Society Publication                   Editor: Michael Marien

ABSTRACT OF THE MONTH
HIGHLIGHTS
SYNTHESIS



 (Full citations and abstracts 07-151 through 07-200 in Future Survey June Issue)

HIGHLIGHTS

• 158 Earth Charter in Action
The Earth Charter was officially launched in 2000 to promote a shared vision of basic values for the world community, and move humanity toward sustainability. These essays explain the Charter’s Principles and describe its uses. (Corcoran et al., eds.)

• 161/165 Global Governance Reform
The international system of global institutions, most created in the mid-20C, is inadequate to the tasks of the 20C. The UN, World Bank, IMF, G-8, and health and environmental governance are all in need of reform. Increased transparency is important, and NGOs are expanding, in part to fill the governance vacuum.

• 166/167 New Challenges for the U.S. Government
The Comptroller General of the US urges foresight in dealing with long-term fiscal imbalance, and outlines the new and more complex challenges that the US faces in seven broad areas: changing security threats, sustainability of government programs, economic competitiveness, global interdependency, societal changes such as aging, maintaining quality of life, and managing sci/tech.

• 170/175 Saving U.S. Democracy
Al Gore argues that reason and truth play a declining role in our decisions, and that US democracy is in danger. The culprit is television, and the remedy is a well-informed and well-connected citizenry. Other proposals to fix democracy include a People’s House, a third chamber of Congress based on intellectual property, the 40-point Democracy Protection Act, more civic education in universities, and sensible primaries.

• 171 A Real Representation Plan
Today’s democracy is far from what our founders intended. The remedy is a two-stage reform: creating a 100-person citizen assembly chosen by lot in each congressional district as advisors, and if successful, a People’s House that votes on legislation. (Kevin O'Leary)

• 181 The War Against Corruption
Most nations have some kind of anticorruption law, and business groups have model codes of behavior. But bribery and embezzlement continue to be huge damaging problems, and global action is needed. (Heineman/Heimann)

• 190/192 More Citizen Investors and Civil Corporations
The democratization of ownership is driving responsible business strategies and greater accountability. The corporate responsibility movement has made "amazing progress," with no business sector untouched. "Global business citizenship" provides a transformative framework for a more ethical 21C capitalism.

• 191 The Civil Corporation
The classical separation of business and government roles is no longer tenable. The "corporate responsibility movement" is where new arrangements are being invented, and it has matured beyond most expectations. The next generations of CSR for a New Economy are described. (Simon Zadek

• 194/196 Business Behemoths, Old and New
Only a few years ago, Wal-Mart was the fast-rising mega-business, conquering all and reshaping its retail sector while "Wal-Martizing" society. But the big box revolution may be peaking, while another up-and-coming behemoth in another sector is still rising fast. This newcomer is Google, and five scenarios suggest what it might become.

SYNTHESIS

Humanity Moving Forward—or in Deep Trouble?

It all depends on what one looks at. A 2005 symposium at the Foundation For the Future asked 19 participants to list the three most important trends of the past decade: 14 of the 19 mentioned technological developments, but only 7 of 19 focused on environmental issues and global warming, and only 5 of 19 listed terrorism (151). A French geopolitical thinker worries about terrorism and WMDs, and a return to barbarism in a "savage century" (152). The annual World Disasters Report focuses on neglected crises (153). A geographer looks at rising world population, migration pressures, and resource scarcity (154). Migration is growing and is certain to increase (155), but it can be intelligently managed (156). In the 20C, there were visions of peace and freedom arising in periods of violence (157). Similar "minor utopias" can be expected in the 21C, notably the Earth Charter principles to promote sustainability (158). Simple one-world centralized solutions are improbable (159). But greening of geopolitics, led by a post-Bush president, is quite possible (160). More transparency everywhere is desirable and slowly taking place (161), but global institutions designed in another era are badly in need of reform (162), notably the UN (163). Meanwhile, NGOs are becoming increasingly important actors (164/165, 181).

  What Government in the US, Addressing What Problems?

The head of America’s "Supreme Audit Institution," the GAO, warns that a deficit crunch is coming (166) and outlines the new and more complex challenges that the US government must face (167). Who will head the government? Arguably, conditions are right for a Democratic sweep and party realignment in 2008 (168). But there are other plausible scenarios (169). In any event, the "assault on reason" caused by changes in the public sphere (170) does not suggest that we will sensibly address the problems outlined by GAO with foresight and courage. Ideas for "saving democracy" include 100-person citizen assemblies in each congressional district perhaps evolving to a People’s House (171), a third chamber of Congress for "catastrophist governance" (172), the 40-point Democracy Protection Act (173), serious civic education in universities (174), and more sensible presidential primaries (175). Even then, governance may be impeded by political polarization (176/177).

Soft Crime: Growing Problem, Growing Attention

While the public is titillated with "law ‘n order" stories of hard murder and armed robbery, attention is shifting to the growing soft problems of corruption, smuggling, and fraud. The World Bank estimated in 2004 that public officials worldwide received >$1 trillion in bribes each year (181). Much is being done by governments, corporations, and NGOs to promote transparency and accountability (161, 181/182), but much more needs to be done. The problem of global outlaws involved in smuggling is immense (183). Human slavery across borders is thriving (184). And counterfeiting and other forms of fraud are replacing larceny as the most common crime (185). Identity theft from stolen credit cards could be countered by biometric identification (186). Some good news: the UN reports that the world drug problem is being contained (187), the drug problem in the US has been slowly improving (188), and the explosive growth of legal gambling worldwide may reduce illicit activities related to illegal gambling (189).

Best Recent Books and Reports on WFS Website Best Recent Books and Reports, a continuously updated listing of 5-7 highly recommended items in each of 20 categories, to be posted on the WFS website: www.wfs.org/fsbest06.htm. The BRBR listing moves well beyond the static "Best Books" of the year listing, to be found in the annual Indexes and Source List supplement. The BRBR goes back over the past three or four years to highlight items that are still of great merit, while also moving forward into the current year to highlight very recent listings. Thus, at any one time, you can have quick access to an updated booklist of the best recent books and reports covered in Future Survey. Items are selected for breadth, importance, readability, authoritativeness, originality, and/or long-term perspective. In all, it should prove to be your best bet for "where to start" in 20 basic categories of futures-thinking. - MM

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