Future Survey
June 2002

Volume 24, Number 6

A World Future Society Publication           Editor: Michael Marien

CONTENTS
SYNTHESIS
SUBJECT INDEX
SHORT TITLE INDEX
AUTHOR INDEX
ABSTRACT OF THE MONTH




CONTENTS

   (Full citations and abstracts 02-251 through 02-300 in Future Survey June Issue)

HIGHLIGHTS

n 251 Our Molecular Future
The merger of genetics, robotics, AI, and nanotechnology may soon transform humanity. But threats of "nature's time bombs"—mega-disasters—will demand an effective molecular defense.     (Douglas Mulhall)

n 251/254, 260 Four Ways to Aggregate Sci/Tech Frontiers
Science and technology continue to boom. How to get a rough handle on it all? Try an acronym (G.R.A.I.N.), timelines in chart form, a survey of the 100 top young innovators under age 35, and—for far frontiers—a group of "crazy ideas" in science, some of which may yet prove true.

n 262/267 Technology and Terror
The events of 9/11 hastened thinking about a bundle of "homeland security" technologies, many of which were developing anyway, as well as protecting emergency responders, biometrics, and crime-fighting technology in general. But nature can terrorize too, attacking technology through storms in space, or abruptly changing climate.

n 268/270 Infectious Disease and National Security
Even in our era of modern medical miracles, states still suffer far more from infectious disease than from war and terrorism. Since 1975, at least 33 new pathogens such as HIV and Ebola have emerged, and old scourges such as TB, malaria, and cholera are increasingly resistant. A flu pandemic in the US could result in 300,000 deaths.

n 272 Better Health for Global Poor
WHO Commission on Macroeconomics and Health proposes a broad plan to reduce illness in the 83 poorest countries by improving local delivery structures, boosting technical and financial support to fight diseases such as malaria and TB, and better health system management.     (Phabhat Jha, et al.)

n 276 The Terrible Gift
The Brave New World of genetic medicine will be more about remodeling than repair, with longevity as the ultimate upgrade. Without system changes, the rich will live longer, while many receive no health care at all. (Carlson/Stimeling)

n 287/290 Where the Real School Reforms Are
Much attention is given to voucher programs and charter schools, both of which have yet to be fully proven. Computers in the classroom have been oversold and underused. The real action may well be in the 8,000 schools adopting any of several externally developed school reform models.

n 292 Byte Wars: Impact of 9/11
The events of 9/11 crystallized change in many IT-related paradigms about wider threats, the speed of emergent systems, resiliency, "good-enough" design, etc. (Edward Yourdon)

n 294 Money's Destiny: To Become Digital
An OECD report argues that, over time, physical money has increasingly been replaced by more abstract means of payment. Singapore plans to replace its physical money by 2008. Diffusion of digital money may be accelerated to overcome high costs of handling physical cash and to ensure transparency of financial transactions.

SYNTHESIS
  Capturing the Sci/Tech Boom

It is surely impossible to encompass all of the numerous developments in sci/tech under a single umbrella, but the G.R.A.I.N. acronym (Genetics, Robotics, Artificial Intelligence, Nanotechnology) is useful to focus on the possible (likely?) mega-merger of four super-sciences (251). Paul Saffo of IFF looks at four main areas of research—infotech, materials, bioscience, and energy—to show in a spaghetti-like map how subspecialties could merge in the future, giving rise to new disciplines (252). Or one can look at individual technologies arrayed in timelines but not individually connected (252/253), or put together conventional overview essays on the state of innovation in four broad areas: infotech, biomedicine, nanotech, and transportation (254). Focusing on key technologies is still useful: the accelerating interest in nanotechnology (254/255), potential nanotube computers (256), in silico biology (257), and forest biotechnology (258). Farther out, one can look at today's unsettled "crazy ideas" in science such as time travel that may eventually be seen as correct (260), and the once-crazy search for life in the universe now underway (261).

  Health Concerns in World and U.S.

Emerging and re-emerging infectious disease can stress national capabilities and thus should be seen as a matter of national security (268). Even in the US, a major flu epidemic or bioweapon pathogens could be devastating (269). A tuberculosis crisis is underway in 22 global "TB hot spots" (270), and China now faces a major HIV/AIDS epidemic (271). A plan to improve the health of the global poor is proposed by a WHO commission (272). Tobacco is the #1 public health menace to many, but there are complexities in controlling it (273). In the US, much attention is being given to the positive prospects for better health and longer lives offered by human genome discoveries (275), but there could be a terrible downside of vastly greater inequities (276). Health care is moving from necessary treatments to voluntary upgrades (276), further neglecting traditional no-tech caring (277). Rising costs in US health care are expected to continue double-digit growth for at least the next few years (278), insuring that more attention will be given to health policy issues (279).

  Learning Needs Addressed—or Not

The National Academy of Engineering and National Research Council express concern about the lack of technological literacy in our society, even as our use of technology increases (281). Futures studies and futures-oriented courses ought to be widespread in higher education, but we do not know if they are expanding (282). The recent president of Cornell University looks at trends and proposes guidelines for "the successful university (283)." Online higher education, however, may well turn out like the correspondence school movement that peaked in 1926 (284). Indeed, contrary to recent enthusiasms, "Dot-Com U" is in retreat, for the moment at least (285). Distance learning is even expected to shrink in corporate universities, which are otherwise expanding (286). In the lower system, great attention is given to reform via charter schools and voucher programs, but much is still not known about effectiveness (287/288). Contrary to expectations, monies invested in computer technology in schools have yet to produce desired outcomes (289). But a variety of externally developed school reform designs are being quietly adopted in the US and elsewhere (290). Meanwhile, contrary to the image of the Internet as a great educational tool, consider the opposing argument that it makes people dangerously dumber (291).

Next Month in Future Survey

Terrorism/Security

Environment

Global Economy

World Futures

SUBJECT INDEX 

AIDS/HIV: looming crisis in China 271
astrobiology textbook 261
biometrics technology assessed 264
caring: declining role in medicine 277
charter schools questioned 287
charter schools: what is known 288
climate system: abrupt change as new paradigm 267
clothing 259; also 251, 253, 263, 265
Commission on Macroeconomics and Health (WHO) 272
computers and carbon nanotubes 256
computers in schools underused 289
Control Web: idealized scenario of future Internet 295
corporate universities growing 286
"crazy ideas" in science 260
crime-fighting technology needs 265
digital divide in politics 298
Digital Human Project ahead? 257
disasters and molecular defense 251
drug-resistant infections 269/270
emergency responders: better protection needed 263
flu pandemic potential in US 269
"function creep" in biometrics? 264
futures studies courses 282
genetic medicine and inequalities 276
genetically engineered trees 258
genome technology: three waves 275
global poor: improving health 272
health care costs growing 278
health policy reforms: next 10 years 279
homeland security technology agency needed 262
in silico biology 257
inequality in genetic medicine 276
inequality in Internet access 298
infectious disease/national security 268
infotech and 9/11 response 292
Internet and crime 293
Internet impact on politics 298
Internet making people dumber 291
investigative reporting in decline 300
journalism, good and bad: trends 299
life in the universe: textbook 261
medical breakthroughs to 2020 276
money: trend to digitization 294
nanotechnology 251
nanotechnology research accelerating 254/255
nanotube computers 256
national security and disease 268
newspapers: the last mass medium? 299
obesity: #1 child health problem 280
online higher education: parallels to correspondence schools 284
online higher education in retreat 285
paradigm shifts in IT after 9/11 292
road safety in 28 OECD countries 274
robotics 251
school reform designs 290
sci/tech: advances in next 20 years 252
Singapore Electronic Legal Tender 294
"Singularity" approaching? 251
space weather forecasts needed 266
technological literacy needed in US 281
technology timeline to 2040 253
textile industry trends 259
tobacco policy questioned 273
traffic injury reduction in OECD 274
trees and genetic engineering 258
tuberculosis: global epidemic 270
universities in US: trends 283
values and global networks 297
voucher schools: what is known 288
Web, unified theory of 296

Return to top



SHORT TITLE INDEX
 
Abrupt Climate Change [NRC] 267
Advancing Futures: Futures Studies in Higher Edcation 282
Army Biometric Applications 264
Byte Wars [infotech after 9/11] 292
Challenges and Choices for Crime-Fighting Technology 265
China's HIV Crisis 271
Corporate University Handbook 286
The Creation of the Future [US universities] 283
Crime and the Internet 293
Digital Diploma Mills 284
Digital Divide [Internet/politics] 298
Expect Miracles [charter schools] 287
Extending Education Reform 290
Forest Biotech 258
The Future of Money [OECD] 294
Global Networks and Local Values [Germany & US] 297
Global Village Idiocy 291
Governing Health 279
Hard Decisions for Employers [health insurance increases] 278
The Health of Nations [infectious disease and national security] 268
Homeland Security Technology 262
Improving the Health of the Global Poor 272
The Internet of the Future [control issues] 295
Into the Buzzsaw [investigative reporting in decline] 300
Lessons Learned at Dot-Com U 285
Life Script [human genome impacts on health] 275
The Lost Art of Caring 277
The Nanotube Computer 256
The News About the News [US journalism in peril] 299
Nine Crazy Ideas in Science 260
Our Molecular Future 251
Oversold and Underused: Computers in the Classroom 289
Protecting Emergency Responders 263
Rhetoric vs. Reality [vouchers and charter schools] 288
Safety on Roads [OECD] 274
Search for Life in the Universe 261
Secret Agents [emerging infections] 269
Small Pieces Loosely Joined [Web theory] 296
State of Innovation & TR 100 254
Storms in Space 266
Technically Speaking [tech literacy needed] 281
The Technology Timeline 253
The Terrible Gift [genetic medicine] 276
The Textile Book 259
Timebomb [tuberculosis epidemic] 270
Tobacco 273
Untangling the Future & Headlines from Tomorrow [new sci/tech] 252
The Virtual Cell 257
Why Nanotech Will Arrive Soon... 255

Return to top

AUTHOR INDEX

Allen, Mark 286 
Borjesson, Kristina 300
Brody, Jane E. 280
Bullinga, Marcel 295
Carlson, Rick J. 276
Cluff, Leighton E. 277
Cookson, Peter W. Jr 287
Cuban, Larry 289
Datnow, Amanda 290
Dator, James A. 282
Downie, Leonard Jr 299
Drexler, Madeline 269
Ehrlich, Robert 260
Freeman, John W. 266
Friedman, Thomas L. 291
Gale, Colin 259
Goldsmith, Donald 261
Jha, Prabhat 272
Mulhall, Douglas 251
National Research Council 267, 281, 297
Natl. Academy of Engineering 281
Noble, David F. 284
Norris, Pippa 298
OECD 274, 294
Pearson, Ian 253
Price-Smith, Andrew T. 268
RAND 263/265, 288
Reichman, Lee B. 270
Rhodes, Frank H.T. 283
Saffo, Paul 252
Uldrich, Jack 255
Wade, Nicholas 275
Wall, David S. 293
Warner, Keneth E. 273
Weinberger, David 296
Weissert, Carol S. 279
Yourdon, Edward 292

Back to WFS Page            Back to Future Survey Page            To Subscribe


Send comments to: webmaster@wfs.org
All contents copyright ©  World Future Society, 2002.
All rights reserved