Future Survey
July 2007

Volume 29, Number 7
A World Future Society Publication                   Editor: Michael Marien

ABSTRACT OF THE MONTH
HIGHLIGHTS
SYNTHESIS



 (Full citations and abstracts 07-201 through 07-250 in Future Survey July Issue)

HIGHLIGHTS

• 204/209 Climate Change: Action Needed Now?
An economist argues that it is "unnecessary to launch an urgent program to reduce climate change at this time," and that economic development is more important. But the IPCC, climatologists, environmentalists, and even an advisory board of retired generals and admirals make compelling arguments for wide-ranging action, very soon.

• 206 Hell and High Water
Unless we act soon, global warming will remake our world. Based on current trends, the 2000-2025 period will see more intense hurricanes, the 2025-2050 period drought and high temperatures ("hell and no water"), and the 2050-2100 period may have sea levels up by 20-80 feet. (Joseph J. Romm)

• 213 Water for Food and Life
A comprehensive assessment of water management in agriculture by >700 experts worldwide, writing on trends in water development, alternative investment scenarios, reinventing irrigation, inland fisheries and aquaculture, land degradation, etc. A huge and authoritative effort. (David Molden, et al.)

• 219 The New American Story
Former US Senator and presidential candidate outlines a broad plan to reduce oil dependence and protect nature, while boosting America’s role in the world, the US economy, pensions, health care, and education. (Bill Bradley)

• 223/224 Corn-based Ethanol: Not What We Need
In response to threats of global warming and energy dependence, the US is in the midst of an ethanol boom based on corn kernels, which raises the price of corn and creates huge profits for agribiz, but threatens to squeeze the poor. Moreover, the environmental benefit of ethanol is dubious, and drivers get fewer miles per gallon of the E85 mix.

• 226 Branson Bets on Biofuels
Sparked by Al Gore, Richard Branson, the high-flying British entrepreneur who founded the Virgin Group of some 200 companies, has announced the Virgin Earth Challenge: a $25 million prize. Also, his new Virgin Fuels venture has committed >$400 million to research on using enzymes and GM organisms to make clean fuels. Will the bet pay off?

• 230/233 Alas, Iraq
Serious US attention to climate change and the energy transition could be well underway if attention and resources had not been invested in the disastrous Iraq invasion, a prime example of absent foresight. Iraq now ranks as #2 in the Failed States Index, most indicators are negative if not dismal, and policymakers are now urged to develop a plan to contain spillover from an all-out Iraqi civil war. 

• 237 Changing Mexico
Mexico is reinventing itself on many fronts: migration, values, foreign policy, rich North vs. poor South, economic deregulation, growing public debt, sci/tech policy, the environment, the justice system, political participation, and much more. (Laura Randall, ed)

• 241/249 Health Care Costs: Forever Upward?
Adding to the huge costs of the US presence in the Middle East, health care costs continue to march upwards. Many reasons are cited for this central issue, but underlying everything is the proliferation of technology and the medicalization of society. Tight controls and good information may be needed just to contain the increases.

• 245 Medicalization of Society
Non-medical conditions are increasingly being treated as medical problems, and patients are viewed as potential markets. Identifying genes that affect health will open new medicalization frontiers. (Peter Conrad)

SYNTHESIS

Humanity, the Biosphere and Climate Change

Two broad-ranging volumes look at the history and future of people on earth over past millennia and into the next 1000 years of humanity and the biosphere (201/202). A British environmentalist looks at our strained relations with nature, animals, and places (203). A libertarian economist argues for "the environmental transition hypothesis," where technological change and economic growth lead to reversing environmental damage (204). For better or worse, this argument is ignored by those who see an impending global climate catastrophe, and call for a "Contraction & Convergence" global agreement (205), a five-decade effort to achieve "eight remarkable changes" (206), a "national security" approach (207), many mitigation responses proposed by IPCC Working Group III (208), and James Hansen’s "5-step plan for solving the global crisis" (209). Some of these actions are already underway: academic institutions taking on climate change leadership (210) and carbon markets (211). Reducing deforestation is among the least expensive mitigation options available (212), and better water use in agriculture has many benefits (213; also 208). Despite huge efforts, global environmental governance has yet to be very effective (214), but a "new environmental regulation" is emerging (215).

Energy: Big Changes Underway

In a NYT/CBS poll, 92% favor requiring more energy-efficient cars and 68% favor energy conservation over more fossil fuel production, but only 36% would accept a nuclear power plant in their community (216). Every Democratic candidate for president has a bold energy initiative, while all Republican candidates except for John McCain offer few proposals at best (217). Sen. John Kerry offers a broad energy plan (218), as does former Sen Bill Bradley (219). Big-city mayors are taking action to make buildings energy efficient (220), architects are going green worldwide (221), and big-league entrepreneurs are making significant investments in developing new biofuels (226). The official view of the future of cars is that half of the world fleet of 2030 will still be powered by gasoline or E10 (222). The current US boom for producing corn-based ethanol is a poor idea for several reasons, but it could be a bridge to cellulosic ethanol (223/224). Biodiesel is coming on strong, but may also compete for farmland (225). New biofuels based on modifying microbes are being developed (226), and six new breakthroughs in solar cells in the past year point to an impending solar revolution (227). If all of the above fails or lags, there is much that individuals and local communities can do to develop small-scale energy (228).

Controlling Ever-Increasing Health Care Costs.

Why does the US have the highest per capita health care spending in the world—by far? An introductory text cites fascination with technology, expectation of expensive tests and procedures, propensity to sue for malpractice, and millions of uninsured (241). A Harvard business prof cites health insurers creating a dysfunctional culture, aided by employers, hospitals, and Congress (242). A Brookings/AEI study cites lack of information on quality, effectiveness, and value (243). The deeper cause is proliferation of the "engines of medicalization" that turn patients into customers (245), and our growing capacities to control, manage, engineer, reshape, and modulate human bodies (246) and even embryos (248). Health infotech may help to reduce costs, but only after substantial capital investment (249).

Best Recent Books and Reports on WFS Website Best Recent Books and Reports, a continuously updated listing of 5-7 highly recommended items in each of 20 categories, to be posted on the WFS website: www.wfs.org/fsbest06.htm. The BRBR listing moves well beyond the static "Best Books" of the year listing, to be found in the annual Indexes and Source List supplement. The BRBR goes back over the past three or four years to highlight items that are still of great merit, while also moving forward into the current year to highlight very recent listings. Thus, at any one time, you can have quick access to an updated booklist of the best recent books and reports covered in Future Survey. Items are selected for breadth, importance, readability, authoritativeness, originality, and/or long-term perspective. In all, it should prove to be your best bet for "where to start" in 20 basic categories of futures-thinking. - MM

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