Future Survey
July 2006

Volume 28, Number7
A World Future Society Publication           Editor: Michael Marien

CONTENTS
ABSTRACT OF THE MONTH
HIGHLIGHTS
SYNTHESIS



CONTENTS

   (Full citations and abstracts 06-301 through 06-350 in Future Survey July Issue)

HIGHLIGHTS

n 301/306, 316 Renewable Energy: Need, Progress, New Tech
If one thinks about rising greenhouse gases, the imperative for moving away from fossil fuels and for conservation is much stronger. Looking at recent trends and renewables promotion policies, the outlook is encouraging. And if one looks at new "third-generation" renewables technologies, the future is even more positive—if we act on these opportunities.

n 312/313; also 306, 310, 314 More Coal as Default Fuel of the Future
Failure to make rapid progress on non-fossil fuels, adding to rising worldwide energy demand, is resulting in more pollution from burning coal in the US, China, Germany, and elsewhere—especially if no action continues on building superclean "FutureGen" coal plants. Coal is cheap, plentiful, easy to store and burn. How can we resist it?

n 317/322 Middle East Plans and Strategies
Current civil war in Iraq and the Israel/Hezbollah war may well justify a bleak outlook. Yet there are hopeful visions for a new strategy for the US in Iraq, a sustainable Mediterranean region, democracy in the Middle East, a US-European strategy for the Middle East, Al-Jazeera as an opportunity for positive change, and resolving the Arab-Israeli conflict.

n 332 The Wealth of Networks
Yale law professor notes the start of a radical  change in the organization of information production. New freedom for individual and cooperative nonmarket production holds great promise, but outdated reulatory laws and institutions are tilting the playing field. (Yochai Benkler)

n 333/334 Universal Library Under Construction
The Wikipedia online encyclopedia is growing rapidly, but a far greater project is construction of the "universal library" by scanning books and articles into a single database: the entire works of humankind in all languages, available to all people, all the time—and cross-linked, indexed, and analyzed. But will we be wiser?

n 337 Mobile Phone Delphi
A 2004 survey of experts on impacts of emerging "thumb culture" foresees cell phones becoming ever more important, average age of first use dropping, stronger regulation on use by minors likely, and more expectation of constant availability. (Glotz & Bertschi, eds)

n 342/345 Congressional Deliberation Declining
Even as more information becomes widely available, the rationality of the US Congress appears to be unraveling, due to shrinking schedules, polarization, and ethical collapse. Congress often overlooks, distorts, or misrepresents important information, especially because policymakers are bombarded with good and bad information.

SYNTHESIS

Energy Struggles Ahead

Our future depends on how we use energy and what energy sources we favor. Clearly, we face a global warming crisis (301, 306, 316) and the end of cheap oil (310/311, 316). Non-polluting renewable energy, an obvious answer for decades (314), has too often been dismissed or devalued. But it is gaining momentum, especially with policies to push it (301/303). The IEA reports on new "third-generation" renewable technologies still under development (304). The thermal conversion process holds great promise (305). Microbial energy, through genetically-engineered organisms that produce ethanol, is now being explored (306/307). Does next-generation nuclear power have a major role? It could if new plants are standardized (301), but much depends on how costs are calculated and by whom (308; also 306, 314, 316). Even more dubious, cost-wise, is the decades-long dream for fusion power (309), although long-term hopes continue (310). A new long-term hope is for a new energy delivery system—the Continental SuperGrid—to efficiently transmit electricity and hydrogen, through hydrogen pipes that surround and cool superconducting wires. (315). But without such options at hand, we will depend on more cheap coal, worsening the global warming problem (312/313), though the coal problem may be reduced by new technologies (312) and geosequestration of CO₂ emissions (314). The transition to a new energy mix will not be smooth. It will be a very complex struggle, with many unknowns, many self-serving formulas and forecasts, and new technologies constantly changing cost estimates, e.g.: floating wind farms far at sea could be big (306).

New Worlds of Communication

A new network society is emerging, but it is not a world of freedom sung by libertarian prophets, because an oligopolistic multimedia system controls much of it (330). Moreover, governments everywhere shape the Internet’s architecture (331). The new information environment holds great promise for better democratic participation and for human development everywhere—but a wide range of laws and institutions make access more expensive (332). Still, the Wikipedia free online encyclopedia is expanding (333), and a "universal library" of millions of scanned books and articles in its early formative stage (334). The book biz is coming out with new portable digital reading devices, and developing new ways to print books on demand (335). With infoglut, though, we are moving to an economy of attention (336), and a politics of attention (345). Other big trends: more mobile phones (337) and videogames (338).

U.S. Government and Politics Warped

The Founding Fathers would be aghast! Despite (or because of?) the ever-growing abundance of knowledge/information, a survey of 415 historians finds that Bush 43 may well be the worst US president ever (340). The presidency became "a vastly changed" and more king-like office over the 20C (341). At the same time, Congress is "the broken branch" for many reasons, including lack of oversight of the ever more powerful executive branch (342). A major cause of this acquiescence is the lack of competitive congressional elections (343). Contrary to the image of rational decision-makers, members of Congress often overlook, distort, or misrepresent important information (344), and they are constantly bombarded with information on many topics, ranging from rock-solid to poor (345). An APSA Committee warns of "democracy at risk," and proposes many reforms to reverse decline in citizen participation (347/348). But one important element, apparently too hot for many scholars to touch, is the widespread corruption of the US electoral system, made even worse by the advent of electronic voting machines managed by partisan officials (349/350). The big picture is ugly—a very inconvenient truth.

Best Recent Books and Reports on WFS Website

Future Survey is pleased to announce a new feature, Best Recent Books and Reports, a continuously updated listing of 5-7 highly recommended items in each of 20 categories, to be posted on the WFS website: www.wfs.org/fsbest05.htm.

The BRBR listing moves well beyond the static "Best Books" of the year listing, to be found in the annual Indexes and Source List supplement. The BRBR goes back over the past three or four years to highlight items that are still of great merit, while also moving forward into the current year to highlight very recent listings. Thus, at any one time, you can have quick access to an updated booklist of the best recent books and reports covered in Future Survey.

Items are selected for breadth, importance, readability, authoritativeness, originality, and/or long-term perspective. In all, it should prove to be your best bet for "where to start" in 20 basic categories of futures-thinking. - MM

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