Future Survey
July 2004

Volume 26, Number 7
A World Future Society Publication           Editor: Michael Marien

CONTENTS
ABSTRACT OF THE MONTH
HIGHLIGHTS
SYNTHESIS



CONTENTS

   (Full citations and abstracts 04-301 through 04-350 in Future Survey July Issue)

HIGHLIGHTS

n 301/302 Limits to Growth Redux: Humanity in Overshoot
A 30-year update of the Club of Rome's 1972 computer-based study is even more pessimistic than before, warning that the human ecological footprint has overshot global carrying capacity by some 20%. Paul and Anne Ehrlich make a similar case about overshoot and possible global ecological collapse.

n 304 UN World Water Report
Authoritative 576-page report from the World Water Assessment Programme, on progress indicators, basic needs, water in megacities, management challenges, etc.; with seven case studies. (UNESCO)

n 310/311 Earthquake Threats, New and Old
"Silent" or "slow" earthquakes were unknown to science until a few years ago, but, fortunately, appear to be quite rare. Several world cities are vulnerable to a major "Big One" quake. In the US, the greatest risk may be a repeat sequence of the three 1811-1812 quakes in the New Madrid, Missouri, seismic zone, which could devastate the Midwest.

n 316 The Declining World Order
In today's post-Westphalian world, the US strategy of imperial geopolitics is approaching a dead end, and the threat of an emergent "global fascism" cannot be discounted. (Richard A. Falk)

n 321 The Real Axis of Evil
A vice-president of Freedom House proposes direct action to remove the world's "Forty-Five Least Wanted"—all dictators currently in power—by 2025. Could this become a project for a benevolent US empire? (Mark Palmer)

n 320/324 Agendas for a Better World
A broad menu of desirable world futures includes Amitai Etzioni's communitarian approach to international relations, Mark Palmer's proposal to oust all remaining dictators by 2025, the less ambitious ideas of Francis Fukuyama to promote state-building, a global justice manifesto for a new world order, and Hazel Henderson and Daisaku Ikeda on planetary citizenship.

n 329 Threats to China's Economy
Very thorough study of eight problem areas that might derail China's robust growth: unemployment/social unrest, corruption, HIV/AIDS, water scarcity and pollution, energy costs, the fragile financial system, possible shrinkage of foreign direct investment, and conflict over Taiwan. (Charles Wolf/RAND)

n 332/333 High Sex Ratios in China and India
Aided by technology, the sex ratio at birth has reached 120 boys for every 100 girls in China, and may be over 110:100 in India, and rising. "Missing girls" and "bare branches" surplus males create numerous social problems, and could lead to more domestic and international violence.

n 340 Places Improved by Planning
Case studies of 10 communities where planning succeeded. Includes lessons learned, such as the need for multiple initiatives on several fronts, strong leadership and support for planning, large numbers of people participating, and favorable reporting by local media.   (Gene Bunnell/APA)

n 341/343 Eco-Communities Then and Now
Many communities in Sweden are following the Natural Step approach of investing in eco-sensitive approaches to meet community needs. In the US, an ecological city movement is underway, to make communities more green, healthy, efficient, and equitable—recalling the Garden Cities proposed more than a century ago.

SYNTHESIS

Global Environmental Threats and Problems

Half of the original Limits to Growth team is back with a 30-year assessment even more gloomy than before, warning of overshoot and collapse (301). A very similar argument is made by Paul and Anne Ehrlich, who point to the collapse of ancient Nineveh due in part to a weakened natural resource base (302). The UN Environment Programme, based on its outstanding GEO-3 assessment in 2002, offers a special action-oriented version to engage youth (303). UNESCO has sponsored an excellent overview of the world water situation (304), and FAO has issued the fifth edition of State of the World's Forests (305), which are rapidly moving to a bi-modal condition of "fiber farms" and native forests (306). Invasive alien species remains a growing problem (307), as does climate change (308/309). A new threat, discovered just a few years ago, is posed by "silent earthquakes" (310), and the implications of a conventional "Big One" quake hitting the mid-US could well be global (311). Mechanisms for global environmental governance are still evolving (312), and differing policies of the US and EU may be impeding progress (313). By numerous indications, the US government is moving in a retro direction (314), in contrast to the ideal of ecological democracy that may well be needed in the 21st century (315).

America's Empire: Good, Bad, Failing, Transitional?

A wide variety of descriptive and prescriptive world futures are proposed: the US empire as emergent global fascism (316), Jim Dator's scenario of the empire as triumphant—along with scenarios of collapse, the return of neoliberalism, and high-tech globalization (317), a French view of the US in decline (318), an implausible scenario of a new Dark Age if the US abandons its hegemonic role (319), a proposed transition to a communitarian approach for world governance (320), a proposal to oust all dictators by 2025 (321), a focus on the importance of state-building (322), a global justice manifesto for a new world order (323), visions and programs for an ecologically sustainable future (324), a UN proposal to focus on vulnerable groups (325), and an apolitical view of IT-driven meta-trends profoundly changing the world, with no reference to empire, possible disasters, or reversals ahead (326).

Urban Issues

Introductory overviews are provided in The City Reader (337) and Planning in the USA (338). The American Planning Association offers two useful books on redesigning cities (339) and lessons learned from case studies of successful planning to make places special (340). Sweden's Natural Step movement has been applied to its cities and towns (341), and an "ecological city" movement is underway in the US (342), in the tradition of Ebenezer Howard's "garden cities," proposed more than a century ago (343). Specific urban issues: housing policy (344), natural building for sustainability (345), finding the best use for vacant urban land (346), privatization of public space (347), fostering community control in the face of global capital (348), innovative transportation schemes for campus communities (349), and assessing an idealistic proposal to end ghettos in US cities (350).

 

New! See Future Survey's Top 10 for Summer 2004    Trends, Forecasts, and Proposals

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