Future Survey
January 2007

Volume 29, Number 1
A World Future Society Publication Editor: Michael Marien

CONTENTS
ABSTRACT OF THE MONTH
HIGHLIGHTS
SYNTHESIS



CONTENTS

 (Full citations and abstracts 07-001 through 07-050 in Future Survey January Issue)

HIGHLIGHTS

n 001/002, 005/008 Climate Change: What Will Move Us?
A prestigious UK report warns that even moderate levels of warming will have serious impacts. While global talks are gridlocked, multiple regimes can still act. Action might be hastened by lawsuits, the growth of religious environmentalism, and/or release of large amounts of methane that compound the greenhouse problem.

n 010/011 Protected Areas: Global Change Underway
A great land-use and sea-use transformation has occurred in recent decades, where nearly all nations have established >100,000 national parks and protected areas. This growth will continue in the 21C, based on an integrated and balanced approach, good-practice management, and the new science of conservation biology that promotes broader perspectives.

n 030/035 Human Rights in Retreat
The long march to improving global human rights appears to have been reversed to some degree. The UN reports growing inequalities and fading commitments to redress them. Two textbooks suggest that the "war on terrorism" has marginalized human rights. A global survey finds examples of many countries where the record worsened. And the annual survey of press freedom reports a four-year downward trend.

n 015 Water as a Human Right
Human Development Report 2006 argues the global water crisis is really one of poverty, inequality, and flawed management. Few countries give water issues high priority; for progress, both national and global action plans are needed. (UNDP)

n 017 Energy Tech Scenarios
Oil use will grow in the next 25 years despite expected innovations. Scenarios show what new tech could achieve by 2050. (Intl. Energy Agency)

n 018 Energy for the 21C
A "comprehensive" introductory guide to utilities, the oil industry, oil reserves and unconventional sources, the promise of natural gas, growing coal use and what to do about it, nuclear, hydropower, geothermal, wind, solar, tidal power, biomass, the Kyoto Protocol, and the hydrogen economy of the future. (Roy L. Nersesian)

n 037/039 Children's Human Rights: Realizing Ideals
The 1990 Convention on the Rights of the Child, ratified by 192 countries, was the most widely endorsed human rights treaty ever. This was followed in 2000 by commitment to realizing the eight Millennium Development Goals by 2015, and the World Fit for Children compact in 2002. But NGO pressures are needed to close the gap between word and deed.

n 040 Investing in Life Transitions
World Development Report 2007 focuses on the 1.5 billion young people aged 12-24, and urges investing in five critical life transitions: post-primary school learning, productive working life, heathy lifestyle, family-building, and citizenship. (World Bank)

n 044/048 EU Public Futures Studies
In contrast to the fragmented, intermittent, competitive, and more privatized futures thinking in the US, nations in Europe pay more attention to public futures studies and government-supported futures institutions, as shown by a valuable French survey of this activity, especially in the ten new EU member states, Ireland, Sweden, and Germany.

SYNTHESIS

Climate Change and Related Issues

An independent review reporting to the UK Prime Minister warns of major economic losses and urges global, long-term change (001). Current negotiations on climate are in gridlock, however, and it may be best to focus on the 25 largest greenhouse gas emitting nations (responsible for 85% of emissions) and disaggregating the problem into smaller components (002). Fairness in adapting to climate change will be a major issue (003), as will the temptation to opt for quick fixes that don’t necessarily address root causes (004). Similar to successful anti-tobacco litigation, lawsuits against large polluters may prove successful (005). The greening of many religious denominations encourages constructive action (006). Adding to these two pressures, significantly growing releases of methane—a major greenhouse gas—can accelerate warming, and, perhaps, meaningful action (007/008). In any event, a "new environmental policy era" is needed in the US to address major challenges ahead (014).

Climate Change and Related Issues

An independent review reporting to the UK Prime Minister warns of major economic losses and urges global, long-term change (001). Current negotiations on climate are in gridlock, however, and it may be best to focus on the 25 largest greenhouse gas emitting nations (responsible for 85% of emissions) and disaggregating the problem into smaller components (002). Fairness in adapting to climate change will be a major issue (003), as will the temptation to opt for quick fixes that don’t necessarily address root causes (004). Similar to successful anti-tobacco litigation, lawsuits against large polluters may prove successful (005). The greening of many religious denominations encourages constructive action (006). Adding to these two pressures, significantly growing releases of methane—a major greenhouse gas—can accelerate warming, and, perhaps, meaningful action (007/008). In any event, a "new environmental policy era" is needed in the US to address major challenges ahead (014).

Energy in General, Oil in Particular

In support of the G8 2005 Plan of Action, the International Energy Agency has prepared a Baseline Scenario of CO₂ emissions almost 2.5 times current levels by 2050, and six "Accelerated Technology" scenarios showing how to return emissions to current levels by 2050 (017). An introductory guide to energy for the 21C nicely covers the oil industry and conventional and alternative sources (018). For really unconventional energy possibilities, check out the Conference on Future Energy (019). Is a global tax on emissions the most important policy step to take (020), or an acceleration of technology development (017)? China will become the world’s biggest emitter of CO₂ in 2009, but is also far in the lead to produce synthetic oil from coal (021). And how should we think about oil? Is dependence on foreign oil a national security threat (022), or not (023)? Is US energy independence plausible by 2020, or not (022)? Is "peak oil" already here, or soon approaching, or is there still plenty of oil (024)?

Other Global Issues

The world has changed greatly since the UN was formed in 1945, and many reforms are due, but only likely to come piecemeal (025). The globalization process, which seem inexorable a few years ago, may be peaking (026). The tide of anti-Americanism is at an all-time high (028), and world opinion may—or may not—have some influence, as it has in the past (029). Inequality is increasing (030), and the world is "less hospitable to human rights," in part due to the US (031). Human rights have worsened in some countries, while serious problems remain in many others (033). Freedom of the press was slightly worse in 2005, continuing a four-year downward trend. Global transparency is rising (due to the spread of democracy, the rise of global media, more NGOs and international regimes, and widespread infotech), but this transparency is not an unmitigated good (036). Children’s human rights have been agreed to by nearly every nation, but there are many challenges in realizing them (037/039). Investing in the world's 1.5 billion young people will have long-term impacts on human capital (040).

Energy in General, Oil in Particular

In support of the G8 2005 Plan of Action, the International Energy Agency has prepared a Baseline Scenario of CO₂ emissions almost 2.5 times current levels by 2050, and six "Accelerated Technology" scenarios showing how to return emissions to current levels by 2050 (017). An introductory guide to energy for the 21C nicely covers the oil industry and conventional and alternative sources (018). For really unconventional energy possibilities, check out the Conference on Future Energy (019). Is a global tax on emissions the most important policy step to take (020), or an acceleration of technology development (017)? China will become the world’s biggest emitter of CO₂ in 2009, but is also far in the lead to produce synthetic oil from coal (021). And how should we think about oil? Is dependence on foreign oil a national security threat (022), or not (023)? Is US energy independence plausible by 2020, or not (022)? Is "peak oil" already here, or soon approaching, or is there still plenty of oil (024)?

Other Global Issues

The world has changed greatly since the UN was formed in 1945, and many reforms are due, but only likely to come piecemeal (025). The globalization process, which seem inexorable a few years ago, may be peaking (026). The tide of anti-Americanism is at an all-time high (028), and world opinion may—or may not—have some influence, as it has in the past (029). Inequality is increasing (030), and the world is "less hospitable to human rights," in part due to the US (031). Human rights have worsened in some countries, while serious problems remain in many others (033). Freedom of the press was slightly worse in 2005, continuing a four-year downward trend. Global transparency is rising (due to the spread of democracy, the rise of global media, more NGOs and international regimes, and widespread infotech), but this transparency is not an unmitigated good (036). Children’s human rights have been agreed to by nearly every nation, but there are many challenges in realizing them (037/039). Investing in the world's 1.5 billion young people will have long-term impacts on human capital (040).

Best Recent Books and Reports on WFS Website Best Recent Books and Reports, a continuously updated listing of 5-7 highly recommended items in each of 20 categories, to be posted on the WFS website: www.wfs.org/fsbest06.htm. The BRBR listing moves well beyond the static "Best Books" of the year listing, to be found in the annual Indexes and Source List supplement. The BRBR goes back over the past three or four years to highlight items that are still of great merit, while also moving forward into the current year to highlight very recent listings. Thus, at any one time, you can have quick access to an updated booklist of the best recent books and reports covered in Future Survey. Items are selected for breadth, importance, readability, authoritativeness, originality, and/or long-term perspective. In all, it should prove to be your best bet for "where to start" in 20 basic categories of futures-thinking. - MM

The Next Two Months in Future Survey

Future Survey will now publish ten regular issues and two or more special issues per year. The February Special "Mini-Guide #1" will focus on our greatest long-term challenge, Global Warming and the Energy Transition. The March issue will have regular categories on Global Economy, Cities, Communication, and Education.

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