Future Survey
December 2007

Volume 29, Number 12
A World Future Society Publication                   Editor: Michael Marien

ABSTRACT OF THE MONTH
HIGHLIGHTS
SYNTHESIS



 (Full citations and abstracts 12-451 through 12-500 in Future Survey December Issue)

HIGHLIGHTS

n 455/456 Third Foreign Policy Terrorism Index
The latest version of the FP/CAP "index" on terrorism surveyed over 100 top US foreign policy experts, finding that 91% think the world is becoming more dangerous, 92% say the war in Iraq negatively affects US national security, >80% expect a terrorist attack on the scale of 9/11 within a decade, and only 6% believe the US is winning the war on terror. The "war" can be won, but only by seeing it as a new kind of war.

n 472 The Bottom Billion
A major rethinking of the development issue, noting that for 40 years the challenge has been a poor world of 5 billion people. But most of these people live in countries that are indeed developing. It is the 1 billion people in some 60 small countries who are falling behind due to four poverty traps. (Paul Collier)

n 474 Sustainable Economics
The 25^th edition of the State of the World Report urges transition to a more sensible 21C paradigm of sustainable economics, with sustainable lifestyles replacing GDP as the measure of progress, a low-carbon economy, valuing and managing water, changing the global diet, reclaiming the commons, etc. (Worldwatch Institute)

n 475 Obesity More Prevalent Than Hunger
Worldwide, over 1.3 billion people are overweight, whereas only about 800 million are underweight—and these statistics are diverging rapidly as unhealthy Western diets and sedentary lifestyles spread. Accelerating obesity rates in many developing countries now rival those in the US and other high-income nations. (item )

n 477/479 New Research for Better Education
Demand for more and better education continues to rise, as education is increasingly seen as vital for economic growth, and dissatisfaction with existing education systems and concern for accountability grow. Pressure is thus increasing for national reviews of "what works." At the same time, brain research can potentially guide new educational policy.

n 481 Inadequate Education Costs
Besides being unfair, inequalities in schooling are costly to society. Here economists quantify such social costs as lost labor, individual health, healthcare spending, crime, welfare, etc., and propose reforms. (Belfield/Levin, eds)

n 484 Learning in the Global Era
Today, when more is asked of schools than ever before, most are anachronistic and boring. Students must understand key problems facing our planet, develop intercultural skills and attain global consciousness. (M. Suárez-Orozco, ed)

n 489/491 Future Reading: Huge Changes Ahead?
Google is busily engaged in digitizing as many books as possible, eliciting prophecies about a universal library. Despite limitations, this will surely enhance scholarship in the digital age. And now comes Amazon.com’s "Kindle," a new e-service for purchasing, storing, and reading books. Ever more infoglut, or mastery of the "data deluge"?

n 492/495 Worried Workers Worldwide
Globalization is "a win-win process" according to the OECD, but workers in many countries are nonetheless worried, especially about offshoring and immigrants. Can pro-employment reforms help us to live with offshoring and even welcome "open-borders" immigration? Can immigration reform help to end the new slavery?

n 494 Open Borders for the US?
US immigration policy has failed. A new "open-borders system" would be simpler, more efficient, safer, and more consistent with American values, without necessarily leading to a mass influx of new immigrants. (Kevin R. Johnson)

SYNTHESIS

 Security Reconsidered

We are in an era of "new wars" typified by the Iraq disaster, and US failure to understand this reality has been "immensely dangerous" (451). The terrorist threat has been "fundamentally misread" (452), and, largely due to ill-considered policies in Washington, al Qaeda is a more dangerous enemy than ever (453). In a recent survey, a strong majority of foreign policy experts from both political parties agree that the world is becoming more dangerous and that the US is not winning the war on terror (454). It could be won, but only with a realistic goal (455), and with cooperative responses (456), notably the UN Global Counter-Terrorism Strategy (457). Security is also threatened by continuing existence of nuclear weapons and the US program to replace aging warheads with new ones (458), and by US nuclear supremacy in general (459). There are hopeful signs of growing sentiment for nuclear abolition (460). The US faces very real dangers, but they are not threats that can be tamed by excessive spending on military power (461). The little-criticized financial war on terror appears to be making matters worse (462), as well as the use of torture (463). Non-lethal weapons offer humane promise, but must be used with caution (464). Overall, the notion of "state-first security" deserves questioning (465), along with many other security policies that do not promote security.

Development Reconsidered

Development theory and practice have changed considerably in the past six decades and a possible "new development age" may have begun (466). Critics of globalization (467) and "disaster capitalism" (468) would disagree. And a plethora of new approaches and perspectives may be helpful or cacophonous: the free-marketer’s call for encouraging entrepreneurs (469), OECD’s work to promote the private sector in general (470), the asset accumulation approach (471), a greater focus on the "bottom billion" in the 60 poorest countries (472), a holistic approach to fragile states (473), and, perhaps most fundamentally, rethinking industrial era economics to promote sustainable development (474).

Education Reconsidered

The US is no longer an educational leader (other than in spending/student); all countries now demand more and better education for more people (477). Pressure is increasing for greater effectiveness in education policies and systems, and national "brokerage agencies" are mediating the research/policy interface (478). Brain research has potential for education policy, especially support of lifelong learning (479). One area of research, explaining the effectiveness of Cuba’s schools due to state-generated social capital, will be rejected by some Americans (480). But it is increasingly important to somehow face up to the costs of inadequate education in the US (481) and "the educational morass" of numerous interest groups blocking reform (482). School choice, at least in its present form, is not an answer (483). And, in a global era, both curriculum and policy should be rethought (484). Higher education, on the other hand is bursting out of its ivied walls, with growing attention to linkages with local/regional development (485), cross-border programs and services (486), the trend to open educational resources (487), and a universal digital library, despite its limitations (489), with obvious implications for "digital age" scholarship (491).

Best Recent Books and Reports on WFS Website Best Recent Books and Reports, a continuously updated listing of 5-7 highly recommended items in each of 20 categories, to be posted on the WFS website: www.wfs.org/fsbest06.htm. The BRBR listing moves well beyond the static "Best Books" of the year listing, to be found in the annual Indexes and Source List supplement. The BRBR goes back over the past three or four years to highlight items that are still of great merit, while also moving forward into the current year to highlight very recent listings. Thus, at any one time, you can have quick access to an updated booklist of the best recent books and reports covered in Future Survey. Items are selected for breadth, importance, readability, authoritativeness, originality, and/or long-term perspective. In all, it should prove to be your best bet for "where to start" in 20 basic categories of futures-thinking. - MM

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