Future Survey
August 2007

Volume 29, Number 8
A World Future Society Publication                   Editor: Michael Marien

ABSTRACT OF THE MONTH
HIGHLIGHTS
SYNTHESIS



 (Full citations and abstracts 08-251 through 08-300 in Future Survey August Issue)

HIGHLIGHTS

•  253/256 Disaster Unpreparedness
The possibility of a nuclear weapon going off in an American city is larger than it was five years ago.  But we are not prepared for such a huge disaster.  Indeed, planning for other terrorist disasters, as well as natural and industrial disasters, is still quite deficient.  In many ways, the US has become “a brittle superpower.” 

•  257  Terrorism Threat to Grow
Five easy but unwelcome predictions: terrorist events will be more common and bloody; al Qaeda will grow much larger and more dangerous; jihadists will have nuclear weapons within 10 years; the war on terrorism will drag on for decades; al Qaeda or its spin-offs will likely take over governments in any of a dozen countries.   (Marvin J. Cetron)                         
•  265 New Phase of Information Society
The accelerating change of technology is leading to “information society part two”: the ubiquitous network society where wireless data transfer and net­work­ing is possible for anyone at any place and any time, and with different devices.  Intelligence will be everywhere: object to object will join person to person and person to object.  Even in a remote location, one can have the whole world in one’s pocket.  And then? 

•  267 Software Platforms' Impact
A clear explanation of how software platforms based on computer code drive innovation within industries, and why software platform-based change may well transform the economy in coming decades.  (Evans/Hagiu/Schmalensee)

•  269  Video Games Reconsidered
Video games are often dismissed as a childish obsession; but there are strong reasons to think that games will become a medium for positive change, a major educational tool, and possibly the next great art form.     (Rusel DeMaria) 

•  278  Education/Learning in 2030
The Millennium Project considers 19 plausible developments by 2030, includ­ing national programs to boost intelli­gence, safe drugs to enhance learning, individualized education everywhere, and much more.   (J. Glenn, T. Gordon)                                                                                                  
•  279/280 New Phase of EdTech and School Reform?
Technologies that might enhance education and learning by 2030 include the $100 laptop, the VR game industry, widespread social marketing of learning concepts, healthier adult brains, e-teaching, Web 17.0, safe brain enhancement drugs, etc.  But school reform is stalled in 2007.  Can new technologies and global competition spark a new era of reform?    

•  282/284 NCLB: Another Bush Administration Fiasco?
The No Child Left Behind Act is up for reauthorization, and criticisms are widespread and growing.  Like the Iraq War, the #1 fiasco of the Bush II era, NCLB was pursued with good intentions, but with inadequate foresight, plan­ning, and resources to engage the many complexities involved.  Arguably, NCLB has stalled the many needed education reforms underway, similar to the Iraq War weakening the anti-terrorism effort.                                                                   

•  291/295 Has Welfare “Reform” Worked?
Another big social project was welfare reform in the mid-1990s. Results are mixed.  Welfare rolls are down and more former recipients are working, but college access has been eroded and many are mired in low-skill jobs.  The working poor and near poor still need a variety of supports, such as health care, child care, and earnings supplements.  Think of it as Welfare Reform.

•  297  The Real Wealth of Nations
Present economic theories and policies are dysfunctional.  Six elements of a caring economy deserve recognition: house­hold pro­duction, unpaid commun­ity activity, the market economy, the illegal economy, government, and the natural economy.  (Riane Eisler)

SYNTHESIS

Security Outlook Then and Now

Look back to Herman Kahn’s path-breaking books on nuclear war more than 40 years ago (251).  The “unthinkable” prospect of all-out war has greatly receded since the end of the Cold War. But nuclear weapons proliferation is still a concern (252), and four experts see the growing probability of a single nuke whacking a US city (253).  The lack of US preparedness for a nuclear attack reflects the general unreadiness for disasters caused by terrorists, nature, or industrial accidents (254).  Due to concentrations of energy and populations, we are especially vulnerable to disasters involving chemicals, nuclear power, the national power grid, and the Internet (255).  Although much smaller than the US, Israel can offer lessons in preparedness (256).  And disaster planning is well-advised, in that terrorist groups are expected to strengthen, with more frequent and damaging terrorist events (257/258).  Terrorists especially benefit from the Internet, described as their “quintessential tool” (258).  In the long run, it becomes necessary to overcome “silo thinking” and for security planners to think about development, while development planners think about security (259).  One specific example is the need to prevent the ominous trend to child soldiering, which creates more potential terrorists (260).  With the advent and growth of terrorist threats, preemptive force seems here to stay (261), and “just war” thinking has made a comeback (262).  Adding to the murky new security environment is the increasing problem of defining “victory,” as amply demonstrated in Iraq (263).

Communications Outlook Then and Now

Little more than a decade ago, the “Internet imaginaire” included happy visions of virtual community, cyber-democracy, a long boom, and stateless cyberlibertarianism (264).  Today’s exuberant visions appear to be growing in number and in diversity: the ubiquitous network society (265), the evolving knowledge economy (266), pro­lif­erating software platforms driving creative destruction of the economy (267), the virtual worlds of Second Life and Google Earth combining into a Second Earth Meta­verse (268), video games as a major educational tool and perhaps the next great art form (269), the proliferation of mobile camera phones (270), and personal digital memories now under development to keep track of it all (271).  But there are also some large and unanticipated problems with these dizzying developments: perhaps most important, the extensive use of the Internet by stateless terrorist groups (258); also the annihilation of space and time by the 24/7 network society (272), huge problems of surveillance and privacy (273), snarky issues of digital culture and copyright (274), and ongoing consolidation of the telecom industry despite the Telecom Act of 1996 (275/276).

Education and Welfare Reform Then and Now

Despite many tech possibilities for promoting education/learning in coming decades (278), no new major school reform movement is likely (279), even as a new commis­sion on US workforce skills argues for radical new changes in educating for a global economy (280).  A key problem is the deep class divide in US education, which may result in Americans being less educated than citizens in other nations (281), where universities are expanding rapidly (288).  The ill-considered NCLB Act was intended to address the class issue, but has not done so, while creating many other problems (282/284).  School-to-work programs have lagged since the mid-1990s (285).  Community colleges are burdened by unprepared students and low success rates (286/287).  Welfare reform has put more people to work in low-skill jobs, but inhibits college access (291/292).  The next step in welfare reform is to provide supports to the working poor (293/295), perhaps helped by a caring economics (297/298).

    

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