Future Survey
August 2006

Volume 28, Number 8
A World Future Society Publication           Editor: Michael Marien

CONTENTS
ABSTRACT OF THE MONTH
HIGHLIGHTS
SYNTHESIS



CONTENTS

   (Full citations and abstracts 06-351 through 06-400 in Future Survey August Issue)

HIGHLIGHTS

n 355 Anti-Terror Strategy
The Club de Madrid convened a 2005 summit to consider effective ways to end terrorism. Key suggestions: reduce the reservoir of resentment, mitigate negative impacts of globalization, provide alternatives to Islamic education, etc. (Louise Richardson, ed.)

n 356 Ending the "War on Terror"
James Fallows argues that the US now has hundreds of terrorist groups to worry about, and our enemies think in centuries-long terms. Anti-American sentiment has hardened among Muslims worldwide, and sooner or later some group will succeed in some attack. How to escape this trap? Six good reasons are given to simply declare the "global war on terror" as over, and that we have won!

n 357, 360/362 U.S. Not Prepared for Natural/Terrorist Disaster
The new structure for US intelligence should be seen only as the beginning of reform, at best. A Brookings assessment finds that much has been done to protect the homeland, but the way ahead is more complicated. The public health infrastructure, perhaps "the single most important means of preparing the nation," is still weak. (items

n 360 Homeland Protection 2007
Extensive update of a 2002 report reviews progress and vulnerabilities. "The US has prepared fairly well to fight the last war," but much less has been done to thwart other plausible strikes, and the way ahead is increasingly complex. (Brookings Institution)

n 363 Global Gun Epidemic
Public health perspective on firearms worldwide, which kill hundreds of thousands each year. The US has the highest rate of gun ownership, but fragmented and limited regulations. Some 50 countries passed stronger gun laws in the last five years; only the US has relaxed controls. (Cukier/Sidel)

n 370 Preventing Juvenile Delinquency
Almost all serious or chronic adult criminals have extensive juvenile records, one of the strongest risk factors for future criminality. Many delinquency prevention programs seek to reduce the likelihood of young people engaging in serious crime. Some work—with notable returns for every dollar invested—but many do not. (item 370)

n 373/376; 379/381 Reforming U.S. Health Care
As always, there is discontent with America’s very expensive health care, and differing views on what to do, ranging from "value-based competition" and "universal health care" to more modest proposals for helping uninsured adults to gain access and expanding health savings accounts. Whatever the system, reorientation is needed to deal with problems of aging and chronic disease.

n 386 Futurist Thought Overview|
Ambitious synthesis of science fiction as the mythology of the future, futures studies methods and subject matter, trends, theories, and paradigms of the future. Companion to Lombardo's synthesis on the rise of future consciousness. (Thomas Lombardo)

n 390 Turning Futures to Revenue
Vulgar title, but a good popular overview of trends, forecasting, preferred future planning, why planning can fail, basic elements of a "21^st Century Do-Over," and how to make a buck on foresight. (Glen Hiemstra)

n 396 Breaking Robert's Rules
Millions of meetings each year still rigidly follow Robert’s Rules of Order, first published in 1876! A better option for today is "consensus-building" that facilitates problem-solving—and better outcomes. (Susskind/Cruickshank)

n 399 Many Minds Producing Knowledge
Collaborative projects are growing in both scale and quality. Pros and cons of four different methods of eliciting and aggregating information are discussed: statistical averages, deliberation and reasoned exchange of facts, using the Internet for "wikis," and using the price system to develop a prediction market.

SYNTHESIS

Foresight on Terrorism and Readiness

A survey of >100 top experts finds 84% saying that the U.S. is not winning the war on terror, and 79% foresee an attack on the scale of 9/11 as likely or certain in the next five years (351). Two in-depth studies conclude that terrorism is here to stay because it levels the playing field (352), and that we are entering a new era of terrorist violence motivated by religion and higher levels of lethality (353). Policymakers have often failed to understand the new battlefield (354), and a common agenda is needed for long-term actions to address the roots of terrorism (355). Perhaps the best way to escape this trap is simply to declare that the "war on terror" is over and we have won (356), but such a sensible strategy is highly unlikely before Jan 2009. Meanwhile, we should not count on better intelligence by merely reshuffling agencies (357). Efforts ought to be made to counter the "new American militarism" that has immersed us in this security mess (358); even schools are now on a path of acquiring techno-security equipment (359), which may not enhance safety. Overall, much has been done to protect homeland security, yet much more remains to do (360), especially to maintain a strong public health infrastructure (361), and re-think disaster preparation (362).

Frontiers of Crime and Crime Control

Many nations are cracking down on illegal firearms, with the heavily lobbied US as the notable exception (363). Overall illicit drug consumption continues to spread worldwide (364). Fish piracy—seemingly a relatively minor problem—is a major factor in declining fish stocks worldwide (365). Good guys/bad guys imagery complicates the many gray areas between licit and illicit cross-border flows (366). Due to the growing supply of opportunities and uncertain punishment, evidence of pervasive white-collar crime is plentiful (367). Conventional "street crime" in the US is down, but little of this is due to the mass incarceration of recent years (368). A hopeful area of reform is re-entry programs to keep the flood of >600,000 inmates leaving US prisons each year from returning (369). Delinquency prevention is possible if careful assessment is made of what works (370). Several innovations in policing are also promising (371), although "community policing" appears questionable (371/372).

Methods for All

A very broad survey of general futurist thought, including science fiction, is provided by Thomas Lombardo (386/387). Ted Gordon and Jerry Glenn survey frontiers for a more "science-like" futures research (388). Others, mostly in Australia, seek to combine futures studies with "action research" (389). In a popular style, Glen Hiemstra explains how to turn the future into revenue—and much more (390), and Andy Hines briefly surveys six phases of strategic foresight (391). On a more rigorous level, Audrey Schriefer and Michael Sales introduce their Dynamic Scenario Learning Process (392). Leadership and futures-thinking are closely tied, especially regarding the creation of vision (393/395). Replacing outdated "Robert’s Rules" may be a far better way to run a meeting and get results (396). A similar sentiment is presented by Alexander Christakis, who offers a Structured Design Process to harness collective wisdom (397). The argument for organizational collaboration carries a parallel theme (398), as do the intriguing reflections of Cass Sunstein on collaborative projects to produce knowledge, notably the growth of prediction markets (399).

Best Recent Books and Reports on WFS Website

Future Survey is pleased to announce a new feature, Best Recent Books and Reports, a continuously updated listing of 5-7 highly recommended items in each of 20 categories, to be posted on the WFS website: www.wfs.org/fsbest05.htm.

The BRBR listing moves well beyond the static "Best Books" of the year listing, to be found in the annual Indexes and Source List supplement. The BRBR goes back over the past three or four years to highlight items that are still of great merit, while also moving forward into the current year to highlight very recent listings. Thus, at any one time, you can have quick access to an updated booklist of the best recent books and reports covered in Future Survey.

Items are selected for breadth, importance, readability, authoritativeness, originality, and/or long-term perspective. In all, it should prove to be your best bet for "where to start" in 20 basic categories of futures-thinking. - MM

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