Future Survey
April 2007

Volume 29, Number 4
A World Future Society Publication                   Editor: Michael Marien

ABSTRACT OF THE MONTH
HIGHLIGHTS
SYNTHESIS



 (Full citations and abstracts 07-101 through 07-150 in Future Survey April Issue)

HIGHLIGHTS

• 101/102 New Security Paradigm for 21C
The minute hand of the famous "Doomsday Clock" of the atomic scientists has been moved forward, from 7 to 5 minutes to midnight. But nuclear fears, though still strong, are only one of several emerging mega-fears. This reflects the "new paradigm" of 21C security, which expands the range of issues to be considered.

• 103, 106/107 A World Free of Nuclear Weapons?
Will the peoples and nations of the world come to see nuclear weapons as an "historic accident" and seek their abolition? There are fewer weapons and programs and fewer ballistic missiles, and a possible new attitude toward seeing such weapons as abhorrent. Four former high-ranking US officials have called for their abolition, which is now feasible and more desirable than ever.

• 108 The Small Arms Trade
Proliferation and misuse of small arms and light weapons is a major 21C security threat. This survey puts special emphasis on AK-47s and portable air defense systems (MANPADS),and notes how small arms promote terrorism and drug traffic. (Stohl/Schroeder/Smith)

• 111 The Forgotten Homeland
A task force chaired by two terrorism experts insists that much needs to be done to secure America at home and makes numerous proposals for states and cities, health, the private sector, chemical plants, emergency response, ports and borders, and much more. (The Century Foundation)

• 119 Winners in Iraq
Wars always produce losers, but most wars have winners, too Ten brief essays explore who is better off as a result of the Iraq quagmire: Iran, Moqtada al-Sadr, Al Qaeda, Samuel Huntington, China, Arab dictators, oil producers, the UN, Old Europe, and Israel. A lively preface to thinking about long-term effects.

•126, 133, 137 Winners and Losers from Global Warming
According to the latest IPCC report, most people and nations worldwide will be losers, albeit to varying degrees. According to an Atlantic cover feature, however, added land-value benefits will probably accrue to Alaska, Canada, Greenland, Russia, and Scandinavia. Conversely, people in poor countries are the most vulnerable and will be the biggest losers. Should they be compensated by those who pollute the most?

• 130 With Speed and Violence
Interviews with leading climate scientists highlight unfolding and potential climate catastrophes, notably big methane releases that would speed global warming. As nicely described here, much about Earth’s climate system remains unknown. (Fred Pearce)

• 128/131, 142 IPCC: Understated or Overstated?
The recent 4^th report of the UN climate change panel reflects the consensus of scientists and nations. As worrisome as the report is, some scientists say that it is still too optimistic, due to ignoring recent sea level rise above expectations. Moreover, there are many potential catastrophes and many unknowns. But two skeptics downplay human causation, focusing on a benign 1,500-year cycle and a huge heat vent.

• 143 TechCast Forecasts to 2030
The Delphi-like TechCast project at GWU updates its survey of advances that will reach "mainstream" (30% adoption) in seven major technology areas: energy / environment, infotech, e-commerce, manufacturing/robots, medicine/biogenetics, transportation, and space. (William E. Halal)

SYNTHESIS

 A Broader View of Security

Many reasons are cited for moving the famous "Doomsday Clock" setting forward (101), notably global warming. This broadened view of security is reinforced by the call for a new security paradigm (102). Nuclear weapons are still a danger (103), especially if Iran were to acquire them (104). Nonproliferation efforts move forward slowly (105), perhaps to be boosted by new calls for abolition (106/107). One compelling reason for doing so is the plethora of other threats: the proliferation of small arms and light weapons (108), resurgence of Al Qaeda (110), the many vulnerabilities of the American homeland (111), the growing problem of "energy security" (112), and Russia regaining superpower status in weaponry by 2010 (113). China may also become a weapons superpower by 2020 (113), but at present its "new security diplomacy" should be seen as a plus (114).

The Iraq Quagmire and Lessons for Peace

The Iraq Study Group (115) cites estimates "as high as $2 trillion" for the final cost of US involvement in Iraq—money that could have been spent in building real security worldwide. The ISG offers a preferred course of action, and rejects four alternatives. The best-case Iraq scenarios are not appealing; the worst-case scenarios are appalling (116/118). There will be winners from the Iraq disaster—Iran, China, Arab dictators, Al Qaeda (119)—but at best the US might do no worse than in the past year (116). Lessons should be learned from the Iraq War, notably that peacekeeping and nation-building are just as important as combat (120). We should also understand the role of "spoilers" in the peacebuilding process (121) and learn from reconciliation efforts in other divided societies (122). More broadly, we should recognize the major sources of world anger and address them if possible (123), and consider the human potential for peace (124). Unfortunately, there is a disposition for policymakers to believe hawkish advisors more than doves (125); recognizing this bias can avoid unwise actions. The recent history of the US government undermining scientific advice in many areas also endangers our security (150).

Global Warming: The Ultimate Security Issue

Security concerns in the early 21C are bad enough, with nuclear weapons, proliferating small arms, energy dependency, and angry jihadists made more angry. This situation has been aggravated by the ill-considered US decision to invade Iraq—and by the equally unwise US decision to avoid serious action on global warming. Reports from the IPCC (126/127) describe a dire situation requiring urgent action. And these reports may be understated, because of lags in acknowledging recent ice melting (128/129), and a number of potential climate catastrophes and tipping points that are merely possible scenarios (130). Scientific experts warn of "risks of crossing a climate tipping point that could lead to intolerable impacts on human well-being" (131/132) and urge "immediate attention" (132). The big winner from global warming will be Russia (133); the biggest losers will be people in poor countries (137). What should be done? We should first acknowledge that the US is not doing much about emissions (138, 150). Much more effort can be made to promote renewable energy (136), and to recognize the link between climate change and global poverty reduction (137). [ALSO SEE the Feb 2007 FS Special Issue on Global Warming and the Energy Transition

Best Recent Books and Reports on WFS Website Best Recent Books and Reports, a continuously updated listing of 5-7 highly recommended items in each of 20 categories, to be posted on the WFS website: www.wfs.org/fsbest06.htm. The BRBR listing moves well beyond the static "Best Books" of the year listing, to be found in the annual Indexes and Source List supplement. The BRBR goes back over the past three or four years to highlight items that are still of great merit, while also moving forward into the current year to highlight very recent listings. Thus, at any one time, you can have quick access to an updated booklist of the best recent books and reports covered in Future Survey. Items are selected for breadth, importance, readability, authoritativeness, originality, and/or long-term perspective. In all, it should prove to be your best bet for "where to start" in 20 basic categories of futures-thinking. - MM

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