Microtrends: The Small Forces Behind Tomorrow's Big Changes. Mark J. Penn (CEO, Burson-Marsteller; chief advisor to Sen. Hillary Clinton), with E. Kinney Zalesne. NY: Twelve, Sept 2007/425p/$25.99.  <www.microtrending.com>

The most powerful forces in our society are the emerging, counterintuitive trends that are shaping tomorrow.  Today, the Internet, changing lifestyles, the balkanization of communications, and the global economy are all coming together to create a new sense of individualism that is transforming society.  By the time a trend hits 1%, it is ready to spawn a hit movie, best-selling book, or a political movement that can change the world.

“This book is all about the niching of America.”  There is no One America anymore, but hundreds of Americas and new niches. Nor is this confined to America: it's a global phenomenon.  In a world with a deluge of choices, “we are flying apart at a record pace.”  You can't understand the world anymore only in terms of megatrends; if you want to operate successfully, you have to understand microtrends--the intense identity groups that are growing and moving in crisscrossing directions.

Brief  portraits are  provided of  75 groups in  15 categories: 1) Love and Sex: sex-ratio singles (the rise of single women be- cause gay men outnumber lesbians by about 2 to 1), cougars (the rising number of women who date men 10+ years younger), office romancers (nearly 60% of employees were in an office romance in 2006, up from 47% in 2003), commuter couples (3.5 million married people lived apart in 2005, up from 1.7 million in 1990), Internet marrieds (people who meet and marry on the Internet tend to be upscale, urban Democrats); 2) Work Life:  the working retired (which means a bigger workforce than anyone had projected), extreme commuters (3.4 million people travel at least 90 minutes each way to work, up from 1.8 million in 1990), stay- at-home workers (4.2 million in 2000, up from 2.2 million in 1980), wordy women (women moving into word-based professions), ardent Amazons (women with careers in athletics, policing, fire- fighting, the armed services, construction); 3) Race and Religion: stained glass ceiling breakers (female clergy have more than tripled in the past two decades), Pro-Semitism (growing sup- port for Jews and Israel), interracial families (5.4% of marriages in 2000, up from 0.3% in 1970), protestant Hispanics (Pentacostals are a potent political force), moderate Muslims (many are swing voters). 4) Health and Wellness: sun-haters (concerned about skin dam- age and SPF), 30-winkers (the growing number of people who sleep less than six hours), the rise of left-handers worldwide (currently at 10%, possibly increasing to 16-20% due to non-coercive parenting), DIY doctors (who diagnose their own illnesses and administer their cures; retail OTC drug sales have grown nearly 10-fold in the past 40 years); 5) Family Life: old new dads, pet parents (63% of households have pets, up from 56% in 1988), pampering parents (a trend with “enormous societal implications”), late-breaking gays (more coming out due to increasing acceptance of homosexuality), more male caregivers (nearly 40% of people who provide unpaid care); 6) Politics: the myth of the polarized electorate (Swing is still King), militant illegal aliens, Hispanic voters, Christian Zionists, newly released ex-cons. 7) Teens: the mildly disoriented (the growing number of children with diagnosed learning disabilities), young knitters (knit- ting has gone from frumpy to chic among highschoolers), black teen idols (a new class of black super-achievers), teen entrepreneurs; 8) Food and Drink: vegan children (about 1.5 million aged 8-18 are vegetarian), growing obesity rates (especially among black women), Calorie-Restrictors, caffeine crazies; 9) Lifestyle: long attention spanners, dads more active in family life, the rise in non-English-speakers, unisexuals (more transgenders and unisex names); 10) Money and Class: more second-home buyers (a.k.a. time-splitters), college-educated nannies, shy millionaires who live below their means, the rising number of non- profits. 11) Looks and Fashion: uptown tattoos (more than 1 in 3 Americans age 25-29 have one), snowed-under slobs due to the glut of possessions, surgery lovers; 12) Technology: social geeks (in contrast to asocial geeks), New Luddites (“Tech-Nos” who don't use computers at all, including 15 million online dropouts), tech fatales (women / girls who embrace technology); 13) Leisure and Entertainment:  fast-growing sports (archery, skate- boarding, etc.), the rise of Internet porn, videogame grown-ups (25% of gamers are over 50), classical music growing in popularity. 14) Education: the surge in homeschooling (up 30% between 1999 and 2003), more college attendees and dropouts, growing interest in math and science; 15) International: fractionalizing of religion, inter- national home-buyers, married couples who live in separate households, men ages 18-30 who live with their parents (especially in Italy), the European birth dearth, Russia's new anti- democratic swing voters, educated terrorists. 

NOTE: Pollster Penn views himself as “part of a proud line of trend-spotters,” including Alvin Toffler and John Naisbitt.  This fascinating tour of many small but important trends and countertrends reads very much like Toffler, with less grandiosity.  (social trends in US and world)

NOTE: Comprehensive and comprehendible survey of many development issues (DS). A major rethinking of development (MM).

World Energy Outlook 2006. International Energy Agency. Paris: OECD, Nov 2006/596p/$188pb. [Order in US from 800-456-6323 at 20% discount for FS subscribers.]

"The world is facing twin energy-related threats: that of not having adequate and secure supplies of energy at affordable prices and that of environmental harm caused by consuming too much of it." Reconciling the goals of energy security and environmental protection requires strong and coordinated government action and public support. The need to curb the growth in fossil-energy demand is more urgent than ever.

Major themes: 1) Fossil Energy Will Remain Dominant to 2030: global primary energy demand in the Reference Scenario is projected to increase by just over one-half between now and 2030—an average annual rate of 1.6% (over 70% of the increase in demand will come from developing countries, with China alone accounting for 30%); 2) Expected Oil Prices Revised Upward: market fundamentals point to a modest easing of prices as new capacity comes on stream and demand growth slows; "we assume the average IEA crude oil import price falls back to $47/barrel in real terms in the early part of the next decade and then rises steadily through to 2030"; 3) The Threat to the World’s Energy Security Is Real and Growing: growing insensitivity of oil demand to price accentuates the potential impact on international oil prices of a supply disruption; oil prices still matter to the economic health of the global economy (an oil price shock would be particularly damaging for heavily indebted poor countries); 4) Meeting Growing Demand for Energy Requires Massive Investment: the Reference Scenario projections in this Outlook call for cumulative investment of >$20 trillion through 2030 (about $3 trillion higher than in WEO-2005); there is no guarantee that all of this investment will be forthcoming; 5) On Current Energy Trends, CO₂ Emissions Will Accelerate: in the Reference Scenario, global CO₂ emissions between 2004 and 2030 increase by 55% (emissions are projected to grow slightly faster than primary energy demand—reversing the trend of the last 25 years—because the average carbon content of primary energy consumption increases); 6) Prompt Government Action Can Alter Energy and Emission Trends: in the Alternative Policy Scenario, energy demand in 2030 is about 10% lower than in the Reference Scenario, and global demand grows at only 1.2%/year instead of 1.6%; 7) New Policies and Measures Would Pay for Themselves: the Alternative Policy Scenario shows that they would yield financial savings far exceeding the initial extra investment cost (cumulative investment to 2030 is $560 billion lower than in the Reference Scenario); 8) Nuclear Power Has Renewed Promise If Public Concerns Are Met: new nuclear plants could produce electricity at <5 cents/kwh if risks are appropriately managed, and would be cheaper than gas-based electricity if gas prices are high; "the breakeven costs of nuclear power would be lower if a financial penalty on CO₂ emissions were introduced"; 9) The Contribution of Biofuels Hinges on New Technology: biofuels account for 7% of road-fuel consumption in the 2030 Alternative Policy Scenario, up from 1% today (in the Reference Scenario, the share reaches 4%); new technologies—notably cellulosic ethanol—could give biofuels a much bigger role; 10) Bringing Modern Energy to the World’s Poor Is an Urgent Necessity: today, 2.5 billion people still use traditional biomass (fuelwood, charcoal, agricultural waste, and animal dung) for their daily energy needs; some 1.3 million— mostly women and children—die prematurely each year due to indoor air pollution from biomass.

Chapters are devoted to the Reference Scenario, the Alternative Policy Scenario, the outlook for key markets (oil, gas, coal, power), assessing the cost-effectiveness of alternative policies, the impact of higher energy prices, current trends in oil and gas investment, prospects for nuclear power and biofuels, energy for cooking in developing countries, and Brazil’s biofuels program.

NOTE: World Energy Outlook 2007 (Nov 2007) focuses on "China and India Insights: Implications for the Global Energy Market." (world energy to 2030)

The Art of City Making. Charles Landry (founder and director, COMEDIA, Gloucestershire UK). London & Sterling VA: Earthscan, Nov 2006/462p/$35pb.

A follow-up to The Creative City: A Tool Kit for Urban Innovators (Earthscan, 2000), with chapters on the sensory landscape of cities, the city as a guzzling beast (food, waste, transport, materials, etc.), the geography of misery, the geography of desire, the geography of blandness (the march of the mall, the death of diversity, the curse of convenience), urban repertoires, unscrambling complexity, opening mindsets and the professions, blindspots in city-making, the city as a living work of art (on reversing decline, remeasuring assets, reimagining planning, revaluing hidden assets, re-enchanting the city, realigning rules to work with vision, repairing health, retelling the story, etc.) and creative cities for the world (Dubai’s lessons in ambition and hype, Singapore’s reputation for cleanliness and efficiency, Barcelona’s creative physical reinvention, Bilbao’s lessons in long-term thinking driven by Metropoli-30, Curitiba as a byword for urban creativity and eco-urbanity).

Some strong principles to help good city-making: 1) a city should not seek to be the most creative city in the world or region, but to be the best city for the world (this one change of word gives city-making an ethical foundation and helps cities become places of solidarity); 2) go with the grain of local cultures and distinctiveness, yet be open to outside influence; balance local and global; 3) involve those affected by what you do in decision-making ("ordinary people can make the extraordinary happen, given the chance"); 4) learn from what others have done well, but don’t copy them thoughtlessly; 5) encourage projects that add economic value, while also reinforcing ethical and environmental values; 6) every place can make more out of its potential; imagination and courage is our greatest resource; 7) foster civic creativity—imaginative problem-solving applied to the public good—as the ethos of your city; 8) "all urban professions should consider thinking like artists, planning like generals, and acting like impresarios"; 9) at its best, good city-making leads to the highest achievement of human culture: our best cities are the most sophisticated artifacts humans have conceived; the worst are forgettable, damaging, even hellish; 10) for too long we believed that city-making involved only the art of architecture and land-use planning; "we now know that the art of city-making involves all the arts; the physical alone do not make a city or a place."

NOTE: Sophisticated and inspiring, seeking "to foster competent, confident, and engaged citizenship." (city-making as an art)

The Real Wealth of Nations: Creating a Caring Economics.  Riane Eisler (Center for Partnership Studies, Pacific Grove CA). San Francisco: Berrett-Koehler, April 2007/318. Buy book

     “The failure of present economic theories and policies to recognize that caring and caregiving are integral to personal, economic, ecological, and social health directly affects our lives and our children’s future.  It has saddled us with dysfunctional economic models and measures, which in turn have led to dysfunctional polices and practices. These policies and practices are major factors behind seemingly unsolvable global problems, e.g., poverty, overpopulation, and environmental devastation.”

     A different way of looking at economics is required to address the many chronic problems of the world  “We need eco­nomic models, rules, and policies that support caring for ourselves, others, and our Mother Earth.”  Failing to include caring and caregiving in economic models is totally inappro­priate for the postindustrial economy, where the most important capital is human capital.  We cannot expect changes in un­caring economics unless caring and care­giving are given value.

     “To build a new economic model, we must include the full spectrum of economic relations.”  The six elements of the new economic map: 1) Household production based upon caring and caregiving; 2) Unpaid community economy, including charitable and political work along with barter and alternative exchange systems; 3) Market economy, the focus of most eco­nomic thought; 4) Illegal economy, whose defining character­istic is the lack of caring; 5) Government that makes the policies and rules governing the other economies and provide care or support for caregiving;  6) Natural economy, of the environment.  Only by taking all six sectors into account can we make the changes needed in our world today.

     The six foundations for a caring economic system: 1) con­sideration of the full spectrum of economic relations; 2) cultural beliefs and institutions that value caring and caregiving; 3) eco­nomic policies and practices that encourage and reward caring and caregiving, meeting basic human needs, and considering effects of activities on future generations; 4) inclusive and accurate economic indicators of all six economic sectors; 5) part­nership economic and social structures; 6) an evolving economic theory of “partnerism” that recognizes the essential economic value of caring for ourselves, others, and nature.  Partnerism emphasizes democratic and economically equitable structures, equal valuing of males and females, mutual respect and trust, with a low degree of violence, and beliefs that give high value to empathic and caring relations. “In short, respect for women’s rights and children’s rights is a prerequisite for a more equitable, sustainable, and prosperous future.”

     The transition to a new and sustainable economic systems should include: 1) tax credits for companies that are environ­mentally and socially responsible; 2) high taxes on practices that harm the environment and health; 3) taxes on financial speculation to fund caring policies and caregiving; 4) policies that encourage local production of food and other essentials; 5) universal standards to protect workers, consumers, and nature; and 6) establishing more accurate and inclusive eco­nomic measures. 

NOTE: Far from the first book to urge a broader economics (e.g., see the writings of Hazel Henderson), but a well-written addition to the genre.  This common-sense book is prefaced with 35 enthusiastic blurbs by Henderson and others, only two of whom are card-carrying economists.  See 29:8/299 to understand the entrenched assumptions of 20C “econom­ics.”                                                   (caring economics needed)

Hell and High Water: Global Warming—the Solution and the Politics—and What We Should Do. Joseph J. Romm (Center for Energy and Climate Solutions, Washington). NY: William Morrow (HarperCollins), March 2007/292p/$24.95.

Forces That Will Shape America’s Future: Themes from GAO’s Strategic Plan, 2007-2012. US Government Accountability Office (foreword by Comptroller General David M. Walker). Washington: USGAO, March 2007/40p. Download PDF

An integral part of GAO’s strategic plan, this document describes proposed goals for supporting Congress and the nation in facing the challenges of a rapidly changing world. Seven key themes provide the context of the plan:

1) Ensuring US Readiness to Address Changing Security Threats: terrorism in an uncertain and unstable world, border and port security, the growing threat of transnational crime, natural disasters, infectious diseases and public health;

2) Sustainability Concerns about Government Policies and Approaches: meeting needs of a growing population in a time of debt burdens and fiscal deficits (deficits of $494 billion in 2005 and $434 billion in 2006 are "daunting in the near term"), the health care system "in crisis", homeland security strategies, social insurance commitments, tax gaps (the difference between what is owed and what was paid is $345 billion in lost revenue), energy (a vision for a sustainable energy future is needed), environment and resource protection, food and water;

3) Maintaining Economic Growth and Competitiveness: education and skills, immigration, tax policy (total revenue in FY 2006 was $2.4 trillion or about 18% of GDP, which is near the midpoint as a share of GDP in the past 40 years), personal savings (declined from about 5% of GDP in early 1990s to turn negative in 2005 and 2006), regulatory policy, innovation and change management;

4) Recognizing Global Interdependency: trade (US exports rose from 5% of GDP in 1970 to 10% in 2005; imports from 5% to 15%—a third of this trade deficit is from oil imports), capital markets, information, transportation (the US physical infrastructure is "badly in need of investment and repair");

5) Adapting to Societal Changes: aging/longer life, dependency ratios, demographic diversity, income distribution gaps, changing social behaviors;

6) Maintaining Quality of Life: retirement security, employment, work and family, urbanization/sprawl, housing;

7) Managing Advancements in Sci/Tech: productivity and economic growth, infotech, cybersecurity/privacy, data quality and reliability, space exploration, humanity and ethics, elections/citizen involvement.

In sum, as the pace of change accelerates in every aspect of US life, the federal government faces new and more complex challenges. "Basic management systems and processes in federal agencies will have to undergo fundamental updating and reengineering."

NOTE: Succinct nonpartisan overview of trends and challenges. Seems to be a follow-up to 21^st Century Challenges: Reexamining the Base of the Federal Government (Feb 2005/94p; <www.gao.gov/new.items/d05325sp.pdf>).     
(future challenges to US government)
 

The TechCast system is "an improved version of the Delphi method" that scans the scientific literature and other sources and organizes data into a "breakthrough analysis" consisting of trends opposing and driving each technology. The 30% adoption level is usually used as a milestone, because emerging technologies usually enter the mainstream at this point. An expert panel (of some 100 executives, scientists, engineers, futurists, etc.) works online to integrate this information into accurate estimates. TechCast has been using this forecasting method for 15 years on a variety of projects, and "this process reduces uncertainty to about 20-30%; the outcome can be seen as good enough to get decisionmakers into the right ballpark."

"Rapid advances in information systems are driving breakthroughs in all scientific fields." Seven major technology areas are covered: 1) Energy and Environment: 30% of global energy is likely to come from alternative sources by 2020; desalination will become mainstream at about the same time; precision farming (computerized control of irrigation, fertilizer, and pesticides) will reach mainstream by about 2010-2015; 2) Infotech: most security systems will primarily use biometrics by about 2010; quantum computers could be available commercially about 2021; 3) E-Commerce: 30% adoption of entertainment on demand by 2008; 30% of world population will have access to IT (Internet, TV, telephones) by 2016; e-training now accounts for about 30% of corporate training and will soon exceed 50%; virtual education will enter mainstream use about 2015; 4) Manufacturing and Robots: nanotech applications will likely reach mainstream by about 2015 with a potential trillion-dollar market [see 29:4/144]; use of smart robots is likely to reach mainstream about 2020 or earlier [see 29:4/145-146]; 5) Medicine and Biogenetics: artificial organs will replace major body parts by about 2022; IT systems in medicine could enter the mainstream by about 2015 and save hundreds of billions of dollars; cancer patients will commonly recover and lead full lives by about 2023; "life spans could average 100 years by about 2030"; 6) Transportation: 30% adoption of hybrids by 2012-2018 with fuel-cell cars a few years later [also see 29:4/147 on diesels]; 30% of highway traffic will flow on automated roadways by 2025; hypersonic planes likely to be used on long flights by 2020; 7) Space: the first space cruiser for tourists flying 50-100 miles above Earth around 2014; a moon colony and humans on Mars likely by 2025 [but, see 29:4/148 on the debris problem].

The world in 2010 is "almost certain to be smarter, faster, and more fully connected, setting the stage for the breakthroughs to come." By 2020, computing power should match the human brain, enabling smart robots and speech recognition. By 2030, despite vast technological powers, "intercultural conflict, weapons of mass destruction, and threats of environmental collapse are likely to force the move to some form of global community as the best means for managing such nagging problems." By 2040-2050, "the challenges facing globalization are likely to be resolved into a fully modernized, fairly harmonious globe, something like a far larger and more diverse version of the US or EU."

NOTE: A very useful overview to grasp "the ballpark," and an existential antidote to the rest of this gloomy issue of FS! But global warming may postpone or overshadow much of this techno-cheer. (promising technologies by 2030)

LEARNING/FORESIGHT n 29:3/096