2002 2003  Best Recent Books 2004 2005
2002 2003 and Reports 2004 2005

Selected by Michael Marien, editor of Future Survey
(a monthly publication of the World Future Society)

This updated list describes FS reviews of 140 books and reports published in the past few years, with 7 items in each of 20 Subject Categories. Items are chosen for their breadth, originality, authoritativeness, readability, and/or long-term perspective. Together, they can serve as a broad introduction to important long-term trends, forecasts, possibilities, and desirable futures. Click any of the 20 boxes for quick access. For access to the full abstract, note the Future Survey item number at the end of each brief description. For access to Best Books 2005, a briefer list of "Top 30" items in 5 categories, all published in Volume 27 (2005), click here.

You are invited to download and distribute this listing to colleagues and students, without charge or authorization.

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  (N) = New addition since 1/06                   updated 4/06

Inevitable Surprises: Thinking Ahead in a Time of Turbulence
Peter Schwartz. Gotham/Penguin, June 2003/247p.
Chair of Global Business Network views surprises in the next 25 years as the norm, but many can be anticipated: the US as "rogue superpower" in a truly new world order, return of the Long Boom, major sci/tech breakthroughs, global climate change, and older and healthier people. (FS 25:6/251)  Buy

Powerful Times: Rising to the Challenge of Our Uncertain World
Eamonn Kelly (Wharton School/Pearson Prentice Hall, Oct 2005/275).
CEO and president of Global Business Network identifies seven matching pairs of forces that will grow in the next decade: clarity/craziness, secular/sacred, US power/vulnerability, tech acceleration/pushback, intangible/physical, prosperity/decline, and people/planet. A fresh and powerful frame for understanding global promise and peril. (27:9/401) Buy

2005 State of the Future
Jerome Glenn and Theodore Gordon (AC/UNU, July 2005/101p + CD).
The 9th annual report of the Millennium Project derived from participants in 20 regional nodes. Updates the useful overview of 15 Global Challenges; also sections on future ethical issues, emerging environmental security iissues, preventing negative impacts of nanotech, and the State of the Future Index. (27:9/403) Buy

High Noon: Twenty Global Problems, Twenty Years to Solve Them
J. F. Rischard. Basic Books, June 2002/241p.
World Bank VP considers top global concerns involving the global commons, requiring a global commitment, or needing a global regulatory approach. (FS 24:9/410) Buy

Free World: America, Europe, and the Surprising Future of the West
Timothy Garten Ash.  Random House, Nov 2004/286p.
An Oxford scholar focuses on four important global challenges requiring US-Europe cooperation: peace in the Middle East, the shift of global power toward China and India, the North/South income gap, and multilateral agreement on global warming.  The old Atlantic-centered West probably has less than 20 years left as the main world-shaper. (FS 27:1/010) Buy

A New World Order
Anne-Marie Slaughter. Princeton U Press, March 2004/ 341p.
On the emerging world of government networks as a new and desirable paradigm. These different lenses make it possible to imagine a genuinely new set of possibilities for a future disaggregated world order. (FS 26:9/408) Buy

From Empire to Community: A New Approach to International Relations
Amitai Etzioni. Palgrave Macmillan, May 2004/258p.
Swelling world problems cannot be handled by nation-states or by international organizations alone. A communitarian approach is proposed, concerned about legitimacy and effectiveness, and narrowing the moral and political lag. (FS 26:7/320)  Buy

2. WORLD ECONOMY/DEVELOPMENT

The World Is Flat: A Brief History of the Twenty-First Century
Thomas L. Friedman (Farrar, Straus and Giroux, April 2005/488p).
An engaging best-seller for most of 2005 on ten forces that have flattened the global economic playing field. Also see Three Billion New Capitalists by Clyde Prestowitz (Basic Books, May 2005/321p; FS 27:7/301) for a similar argument, but with more emphasis on China and India. (27:9/423) Buy

Investing in Development: A Practical Plan to Achieve the Millennium Development Goals
Jeffrey D. Sachs (Earthscan, June 2005/329p).
An overview of findings of the the UN Millennium Project, co-authored by coordinators of the MP’s Secretariat and 10 Task Forces. Proposes country plans to meet MDG targets by 2015, strengthened governance, increased assistance, etc. Also see 13 other MP volumes in Aug and Sept issues of FS. (27:9/428) Buy

Global Marshall Plan: A Planetary Contract. For a Worldwide Eco-Social Market Economy.
Edited by Franz Josef Rademacher. Global Marshall Plan Initiative., July 2004/191p.
A group of 16 NGOs including the Club of Rome has begun an initiative for a new Planetary contract to create an Eco-Social Global Market Economy in the long term, after realizing the UN Millennium Development Goals in 2015. It is hoped that the EU will support this vision. Further information at www.globalmarshallplan.org. (FS 27:1/012)

Why Globalization Works
Martin Wolf. Yale U Press, June 2004/398p.
A good introduction to the pro-globalization view: Why a global market economy makes sense in the long run, and why the critics are wrong. (FS 26:11/502) Buy

Another World Is Possible If…
Susan George. Verso, Sept 2004/268p.
A worthy contrast to pro-globalization economists, arguing the position of the "global justice movement" that current practices are unfair and that the world really can afford to provide a decent life for every person on earth. (FS 26:11/506)   Buy

Reducing Disaster Risk: A Challenge to Development
UN Development Programme. UNDP, 2004/146p.
First global report linking the effects of natural disasters to the Millennium Development Goal of halving extreme poverty by 2015, at a time when economic losses from earthquake, cyclones, floods, and droughts are mounting. (FS 26:8/396) 

2005 World Development Indicators
The World Bank (World Bank, April 2005/403p).
The UN Millennium Development Goals have become widely accepted as a framework for measuring development progress, looking back to 1990 and forward to 2015. This report surveys the 18 main targets and 48 indicators, finding progress toward some goals in some regions. (27:9/431) Buy 

3. REGIONS AND NATIONS

Fault Lines in China's Economic Terrain
Charles Wolf Jr, et al. RAND, 2003/207p.
On eight factors that might slow or reverse China's growth: unemployment/poverty, corruption, HIV/AIDS, water resources and pollution, energy, the financial system, FDI, and conflict with Taiwan. Many fascinating scenarios for each of these domains. (FS 26:7/329)  Buy

Russia's Policy Challenges: Security, Stability, and Development
Ed. by Stephen Wegren. M.E. Sharpe, Feb 2003/288p.
Russia is much weaker and poorer than ten years ago, and faces more policy challenges. Essays describe international security challenges, crime and corruption, the struggle for democracy, population decline, and environmental problems. (FS 26:2/081)  Buy

The Future Security Environment in the Middle East
Ed. by Nora Bensahel and Daniel Byman. RAND, March 2004/345p.
An even-handed report on five key uncertainties (the price of oil, the future of Iraq, etc.)  and emerging trends likely to increase destabilization: declining economies, weaker leaders less likely to cooperate with the US, stronger Middle East ties to Asia, and Middle East states continuing to acquire WMDs. (FS 26:5/216)  Buy

Arab Human Development Report 2003: Building a Knowledge Society
UNDP and Arab Fund for Economic and Social Development. United Nations, Sept 2003/210p. This second report by Arab scholars focuses on the Arab knowledge deficit, and proposes guaranteeing key freedoms, better education for all, and reclaiming Arab cultural heritage. (FS 26:2/077)  Buy

Western Muslims and the Future of Islam
Tariq Ramadan. Oxford U Press, 2004/272p.
A leading Islamic scholar describes six major tendencies within Islam, arguing that Muslims in the West can play a decisive role in shaping Islam and its relations with the West. A sophisticated and positive view. (FS 26:11/512)  Buy

Africa's Stalled Development: International Causes and Cures
David Leonard and Scott Straus. Lynne Rienner Publishers, Jan 2003/157p.
Africa today is better than under colonialism, but many countries have many problems: authoritarian regimes, warfare, AIDS and malaria, and poor economic growth. Most of the problems derive from the relationship to the international system. (FS 26:2/085)  Buy

(N) The Indigenous World 2005
Ed. By Diana Vinding and Sille Stidsen (Int’l Work Group for Indigenous Affairs/Transaction, 2005/565p).
An annual report on recent trends affecting indigenous people in all of the world’s regions, along with relevant UN reports. (27:9/433) Buy

4. SECURITY

(N) Deadly Arsenals: Nuclear, Biological and Chemical Threats (2^nd edition)
Joseph Cirincione (Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, July 2005/490p).
Rejecting the overly broad "WMD" label, this authoritative and detailed assessment describes which nations have nuclear, bio, or chemical weapons—and the ballistic missiles of 12 countries that can deliver then 1,000 to >5,00 km. (27:11/508) Buy

Beyond Fear: Thinking Sensibly About Security in an Uncertain World
Bruce Schneier. Copernicus Books, Sept 2003/295p.
A professional consultant on security and cryptography addresses the basics in daily life, considers security trade-offs, and urges Americans to move beyond fear, to weigh risks and options, and to learn to recognize bad or overpriced security. Wise, fresh, and simply- written. (FS 25:10/470)  Buy

(N) New Global Dangers: Changing Dimensions of International Security
Ed. by Michael D. Brown (MIT Press, Dec 2004/546p).
Top-rate scholarly essays on weapons and security, nonmilitary aspects of security, and transnational actors and security. Excellent companion to Grave New World: Security Challenges in the 21st Century
ed. by Michael E. Brown (Georgetown U Press, Aug 2003/342p; 25:12/551), a survey of factors that will shape 21C security: weapons, vulnerable infotech, environmental change, etc. The outlook for the next decade is "gloomy at best." (27:6/252) Buy 

The 9/11 Commission Report. National Commission on Terrorist Attacks on the US
W.W. Norton, July 2004/567p.
Proposes a strategy to attack terrorists, prevent the growth of terrorism, and protect against attacks. (FS 26:9/416) Buy 

War No More: Eliminating Conflict in the Nuclear Age
Robert Hinde and Joseph Rotblat. Pluto Press, Oct 2003/228p.
Tools to eliminate war include democracy, international law, arms control, promoting international well-being, education for peace, and early warning and conflict resolution. An outstanding and authoritative overview. (FS 26:5/224)  Buy

Human Security Now: Protecting and Empowering People
Commission on Human Security. United Nations, May 2003/159p.
The independent CHS, co- chaired by Sadako Ogata and Amartya Sen, emphasizes the urgent need for a new and broader paradigm of security that shifts focus from security of state to security of people against a broad range of threats. (FS 26:5/226) Buy

(N) State of the World 2005: Redefining Global Security
Michael Renner et al. (W.W. Norton, Jan 2005/237p).
The 22^nd annual edition of this vital overview focuses on Redefining National Security by reducing nuclear weapons and conventional small arms, containing infectious disease, managing water conflict, chancing the oil economy, and setting principles for a more secure world. (27:1/027)  Buy

5. ENERGY

Energy at the Crossroads: Global Perspectives and Uncertainties
Vaclav Smil. MIT Press, Nov 2003/427p.
A critical overview of energy futures by the author of 18 books on energy and global resources, with chapters on long-term trends and achievements, energy-economy linkages, the failure of energy forecasts, fossil fuel futures, and nonfossil energies. A world-class effort! (FS 26:2/052) Buy 

World Energy Outlook 2004
International Energy Agency.  OECD, Oct 2004/570p.
Authoritative overview of fossil fuel use to 2030, shifting oil supply patterns, the questionable reliability of oil reserve data, doubled conumption of natural gas to 2030, the growing role of Russia in energy supply, expanding energy services to poor countries, and a World Alternative Policy Scenario to lower demand and emissions.  (FS 27:3/127) Buy

Energy to 2050: Scenarios for a Sustainable Future
International Energy Agency. OECD/IEA, Dec 2003/219p.
Summarizes global scenario work, offers three exploratory scenarios, and adds a normative scenario for a desirable future in 2050. (FS 26:2/056)   Buy

Winning the Oil Endgame: Innovation for Profits, Jobs, and Security
Amory B. Lovins et al. Rocky Mountain Institute, Sept 2004/305p/pb.
Charts a path for getting the US "completely, attractively, and profitably off oil" by 2050. (FS 26:10/451)  Buy

The Hype About Hydrogen
Joseph J. Romm. Island Press, March 2004/238p.
Questions flawed scenarios and over-optimism about the hydrogen economy, warning that hydrogen vehicles are unlikely to get even 5% of the market by 2030. (FS 26:4/188)  Buy

(N) Sustainable Energy: Choosing Among Options
Jefferson W. Testor et al. (MIT Press, Aug 2005/846p).
A massive overview of energy technology and resources by the MIT Energy Laboratory, with chapters on trends and outlooks for fossil fuels, nuclear power, biomass, geothermal, hydro, solar, wind, and ocean energy. An essential base for intelligent policy. (27:9/414) Buy

The Rebirth of Cold Fusion: Real Science, Real Hope, Real Energy
Steven Krivit and Nadine Winocur.  Pacific Oaks Press, Oct 2004/298p.
Researchers insist that cold fusion has gotten a bum rap.  In the 15 years since being announced and quickly dismissed by many, substantial evidence for producing heat at room temperature has accumulated. In the Foreword, Arthur C. Clarke says that "The neglect of cold fusion is one of the biggest scandals in the history of science."   Take a look--or another look.  Should cold fusion at least be considered as a wild card? (FS 27:3/138-139) Buy

6. ENVIRONMENT

(N) The New Atlas of Planet Management
Ed. by Norman Myers and Jennifer Kent (U of California Press, Nov 2005/304p).
First published in 1984, this updated edition offers a powerful overview of trends and concepts regarding life on Earth, land, oceans, forests, energy, human impacts, cities, managing civilization, and a new ethic for the 21C. (27:12/551) Buy

Global Environment Outlook 3: Past, Present, and Future Perspectives
UN Environment Programme. Earthscan, May 2002/446p with CD.
The third state of the environment report from UNEP, with authoritative overviews of key areas and four scenarios for policy priorities to 2032. (FS 24:7/337)  Buy

Global Warming: The Complete Briefing
Sir John Houghton. Cambridge U Press, Aug 2004/351p/pb.
A semi- popularized spin-off from the three reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, with chapters on climate system models, emission scenarios, expected sea level rise, and action strategies. (FS 26:10/467)  Buy

Abrupt Climate Change: Inevitable Surprises
National Research Council. National Academy Press, May 2002/230p.
The new paradigm of an abruptly changing climate system has become well-established over the past decade. Greenhouse warming makes possible major regional or global climate events in decades—or even years. (FS 24:6/267)  Buy

Limits to Growth: The 30-Year Update
Donella Meadows, Jorgen Randers, and Dennis Meadows. Chelsea Green, May 2004/338p.
Discusses exponential growth of population and industrial production, limits to sources and sinks, the World3 model of growth dynamics, the growing human ecological footprint, and guidelines and tools for transition to a sustainable world. (FS 26:7/301) Buy

Red Sky at Morning: America and the Crisis of the Global Environment
James Gustave Speth. Yale U Press, March 2004/299p.
International efforts to protect the environment haven't worked. An "eightfold way" of needed transitions is proposed: an end to poverty, benign technologies, full-cost pricing, environmental literacy, good governance, etc. (FS 26:4/174) Buy

(N) Plan B 2.0: Rescuing a Planet under Stress and a Civilization in Trouble
Lester R. Brown (W.W. Norton, Sept 2003/285p). Revised and expanded version of Plan B (Norton, Sept 2003/285p), an ambitious vision to end poverty, feed 7 billion people well, stabilize climate, design sustainable cities, raise water and land productivity, halve carbon emissions, provide safe water to all, and stabilize population. (27:12/552)  Buy

7. RESOURCES

World Resources 2002-2004: Decisions for the Earth
UNDP, UNEP, World Bank, and WRI. World Resources Institute, June 2003/315p.
The 10th volume in a biennial series, on the importance of environmental governance, the Access Initiative to strengthen public participation, business accountability, and the Earth Charter's ethical principles. (FS 25:12/578)  Buy

World Water Actions: Making Water Flow for All
Francois Querquin et al. Earthscan, Dec 2003/174p with CD.
A report prepared for the Third World Water Forum, on water management reforms, financing, efforts to expand water supply and sanitation, water for agriculture, and the future agenda. (FS 26:10/472)  Buy

The World's Water 2004-2005
Ed. by Peter Gleick. Island Press, Nov 2004/362p.
Authoritative biennial report on inadequate commitment to Millennium Development Goals for water, bottled water trends, water privatization principles, groundwater management, urban water conservation, etc. (FS 27:1/032)  Buy

Defying Ocean's End: An Agenda for Action.
Edited by Linda K. Glover and Sylvia A. Earle. Island Press, Oct 2004/283p.
An agenda from a 2003 "DOE" conference in Mexico, focusing on ocean-use planning, marine protected areas, global fisheries efficiency, a global network for governing coastal ecosystems, improving public opinion, and a new governance ethos of a World Ocean Public Trust. (FS 27:4/192) Buy

State of the World's Forests 2003
Food and Agriculture Organization. of the UN. FAO/UN, 2003/151p.
Fifth edition of a biennial report, on the Global Forest Resources Assessment, agricultural expansion and deforestation, sustainable development of forests, the fight against illegal logging and trade, the UN Forum on Forests, and sci/tech in forestry. Also see Our Forests, Our Futures, report of the World Commission on Forests and Sustainable Development (Cambridge U Press, 1999; FS 21:7/335). (FS 26:7/301)  Buy

The Bioengineered Forest: Challenges for Science and Society
Ed. by Steven Strauss and H.D. Bradshaw. Resources for the Future, Aug 2004/245p.
Intensified production in a limited area can reduce the amount of forestland required for wood needs. These pro and con papers on bioengineered plantations consider various political and legal obstacles, and possible undesired effects. (FS 26:10/476)  Buy

Addressing the Economics of Waste
Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. OECD, Jan 2004/203p.
An overview of general trends in OECD countries: rising per capita waste, higher consumption and more food packaging, increasing waste recovery and recycling, extensive regulation, waste management planning, etc. (FS 26:4/190) Buy

8. FOOD AND AGRICULTURE

World Agriculture: Towards 2015/2030
Food and Agricultural Organization of the UN. Earthscan, July 2003/432p.
Prospects to 2030 for food and nutrition, major commodities, natural resource use, plantation forestry, fisheries, agricultural trade, globalization in the food sector, ag technology, and climate change and agriculture. (25:9/414)  Buy

Food Wars: The Global Battle for Mouths, Minds, and Markets
Tim Lang and Michael Heasman. Earthscan, Sept 2004/365p.
Outstanding overview of the struggle between three food production paradigms, with emphasis on food security and health, processing and retailing trends, and growth of food service. (FS 26:12/596) Buy

World Agriculture and the Environment: A Commodity-by-Commodity Guide
Jason Clay. Island Press, March 2004/570p.
Agriculture has a greater environmental impact than any other human activity. This is a clearly-written overview of 21 major commodities (coffee, soybeans, cotton, corn, wheat, shrimp, etc.) , their impacts, and ways to make agriculture more sustainable. (FS 26:4/186) Buy

Organic Agriculture: Sustainability, Markets and Policies
Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development. OECD/CABI, May 2003/406p.
Organic agriculture is now only 2% of total output in OECD countries, but expanding at 15-30%/year and now in the mainstream of the agri-food chain. Several OECD governments are now offering incentives for organic farming. (FS 26:2/088)  Buy

Ending Hunger in Our Lifetime: Food Security and Globalization
C. Ford Runge et al. Johns Hopkins U Press/International Food Policy Research Institute, Aug 2003/ 288p.
On the extent of hunger in our prosperous world, food supply/demand in 2025, water scarcity, pros and cons of GM crops, food security as a global public good, institutional reform, and more. (FS 26:2/093) Buy

Halving Hunger: It Can Be Done
UN Millennium Project (Earthscan, June 2005/245p). The absolute number of hungry people has fallen slightly in the past 20 years, but 850 million people are still chronically or acutely malnourished, most of them in Asia. The first of the 8 UN Millennium Development Goals seeks to halve hunger between 1990 and 2015; this Task Force report shows how to do so. (27:10/482)  Buy

Preventing Childhood Obesity: Health in the Balance
Institute of Medicine.   National Academies Press, Jan 2005/414p.
The IOM Committee on Prevention of Obesity in Children and Youth warns of an "epidemic," where both children and adults are "gaining weight to a dangerous degree and at an alarming rate," enhancing the risk of diabetes. Prevention should be a national priority, by encouraging healthful eating, better   nutrition labeling, more exercise and breakfast consumption, and less snacking.   (FS 27:3/114) Buy

9. SOCIETY

(N) The American People: Census 2000.
 Edited by Reynolds Farley and John Haaga (Russell Sage Foundation, Nov 2005/456p).
Authoritative analysis of declining poverty, changes in work, persisting inequality in gender employment, the grim outlook for today's young adults, the latest immigration wave, fading color lines, growth of multiracial Americans, rapid rise in the Latino population, and the stable proportion of African Americans. (FS 28:2/077) Buy       

Extending Opportunities: How Active Social Policy Can Benefit Us All
Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD, March 2005/196p). Taking a "life course perspective," OECXD prescribes social policies to pro-actively invest in children, adults, and the elderly, not merely treating distress after it arises. An enlightened, civilized, cost-saving, and forward-looking view. (27:10/500) Buy

The New Politics of Old Age Policy
Ed. by Robert B. Hudson (Johns Hopkins, April 2005/309p). Old age policy is now more highly contested, as costs escalate and more people live longer. Essays address pensions, old age inequality, Social Security, Medicare, senior housing, and local tax levies to support older people. (27:6/294) Buy

Social Inequality
Edited by Kathryn M. Neckerman.  Russell Sage Foundation, June 2004/1,017p.
The definitive volume on growing inequality in the US, documenting gaps in wealth, income, family/neighborhood conditions, investments in children, health care, education, and political influence. A major social trend, too often overlooked.   (FS 27:2/091) Buy

The Information Age: Economy, Society and Culture. Vol 2: The Power of Identity (New Edition)
Manuel Castells. Blackwell Publishing, Jan 2004/537p.
An extensive update and expansion of the 1997 edition on the construction of identity in the network society, religious fundamentalism, nations and nationalisms in the age of globalization, ethnic unbonding, the dissolution of shared identities, and political democracy as an empty shell. (FS 25:11/512) Buy

Healing America: Values and Vision for the 21st Century
Paul Simon. Orbis Books, Oct 2003/176p.
The distinguished former Senator from Illinois, recently deceased, urges a focus on renewing US values to build a better society and a better world. Chapters on equality, self-restraint, participation, education, respect for law, humility, compassion, courage, protecting our earth, and integrity. Simple and fresh. (FS 25:11/515)   Buy

Futures of Religions
Edited by William Sims Bainbridge.  Futures (Special Issue), Nov 2004.
Many social scientists and futurists once thought that the world was rapidly becoming more secular.  Not so, although the prediction may be premature.  Essays discuss long-term membership in religious denominations (1900 to 2025) and the shrinking proportion of "nonreligious," the future of Islam, new religions, forms of "green" religion, and scenarios of religion and science.  (FS 27:3/101)

10. POLITICS/GOVERNANCE

World Public Sector Report 2003: E-Government at the Crossroads
UN Dept of Economic and Social Affairs, United Nations, Oct 2003/243p.
On the global growth of e-government which, at its best, can create public value. (FS 26:9/430)  Buy

Limits to Privatization: A Report to the Club of Rome
Ernst Ulrich von Weizsacker, Oran R. Young, and Matthias Finger (Earthscan, March 2005/414p). Examines privatization in all areas of government, finding successes, mixed outcomes, and outright failures, depending largely on what kind of regulation accompanies it. The key message is "beware of extremes." (27:7/342) Buy

Restoring Fiscal Sanity 2005: Meeting the Long-Run Challenge
Ed. by Alice M. Rivlin and Isabel Sawhill (Brookings, May 2005/146p). Current US government spending is 19.8% of GDP. Projected increases due to longer lives and Medicare will drive it to 26.5% of GDP in 2030. Four long-term choices: smaller government, larger government, maintaining the social contract, and investing in the future. (27:12/584) Buy

Running on Empty: How the Democratic and Republican Parties Are Bankrupting Our Future
Peter G. Peterson. Farrar, Straus and Giroux, July 2004/242p.
Former Secretary of Commerce warns about a possible "financial meltdown" due to the twin deficits (the budget deficit and the current-account deficit from growing US dependence on foreign capital) , and shows how to rebuild our future. (FS 26:10/482)   Buy

Deliberation Day
Bruce Ackerman and James S. Fishkin
Yale U Press, March 2004/278p.
Political scientists propose a new holiday to be held before national elections, where registered voters are paid $150 each to engage in small-group and large-group discussion of the central issues raised by the presidential campaign. (FS 26:4/169)  Buy

The Future of Freedom: Illiberal Democracy at Home and Abroad
Fareed Zakaria. W.W. Norton, April 2003/286p.
Newsweek columnist warns that, while democracy is flourishing, liberty is not. He cites regimes around the world, America's undemocratic system, and the need for decision- makers to enact long-term policies. (FS 25:11/536)   Buy

The Capacity to Govern: A Report to the Club of Rome
Yehezkel Dror. Frank Cass, Oct 2001/264p.
In our era of radical transformation, we must redesign governments to foster raison d'humanitie as a moral decision criterion, empower people with public affairs enlightenment, and improve the central minds of government. (FS 23:11/545)  Buy

11. ECONOMY AND BUSINESS

The Coming Generational Storm: What You Need to Know about America's Economic Future
Laurence J. Kotlikoff and Scott Burns. MIT Press, April 2004/274p.
By 2030, US retirees will double, with only 15% more workers to support them. Unless adults make large sacrifices soon, our children's tax rates will double. The fiscal gap, growing by >$1 trillion a year, is "the moral crisis of our age." (FS 26:4/152)  Buy

Corporate Governance: A Survey of OECD Countries
OECD, March 2004/108p.
Corporate scandals and failures in many nations cast grave doubt on financial reports. Most OECD countries have passed new laws, tightened audits, increased transparency, emphasized compliance, and improved the role of shareholders. (FS 26:6/282)  Buy

Shortchanged: Life and Debt in the Fringe Economy. Howard Karger (Berrett-Koehler, Sept 2005/252p). A troubling, well-documented report on the growing "fringe economy" of check cashers, tax refund lenders, rent-to-own merchants, subprime housing loans, and debt services who shamelessly overcharge the poor, the stressed, and the unwary. (27:10/471) Buy

Poor Kids in a Rich Country: America's Children in Comparative Perspective
Lee Rainwater and Timothy Smeeding. Russell Sage Foundation, Dec 2003/263p.
The US had the highest child poverty rate among 15 OECD countries in 1997 at 20.3%. Child poverty can be reduced by affordable child care, parental leave, at least one parent employed, additional child-related tax support and benefits, and targeted educational resources. (FS 26:4/159)  Buy

Ecological Economics: Principles and Applications
Herman Daly and Joshua Farley. Island Press, Jan 2004/454p.
An outstanding textbook on necessary 21C economic thinking to sustain humanity and ecosystems, with extensive critique of traditional industrial-era academic economics. College students and many others can benefit from this well-informed volume. (FS 25:12/579)  Buy

Cybercash: The Coming Era of Electronic Money
Robert Guttman. Palgrave Macmillan, Jan 2003/272p.
An economist describes the history of money, the advent of electronic payment methods, and three e-money variants: online banking, electronic purses, and digital cash. Cybercash will result in a greater variety of financial instability, requiring the advent of a global cyber-authority. (FS 25:10/480)  Buy

Paying with Plastic: The Digital Revolution in Buying and Borrowing (Second Edition)
David S. Evans and Richard Schmalensee.  The MIT Press, Feb 2005/367p.
Humankind has seen four major innovations in economic transactions: coins, checks, paper money, and now payment cards.  The payment industry has changed dramatically in recent years, and further progress in the next few years will make cashless payment more digital, rapid, convenient, and secure--and in a variety of forms.   (FS 27:2/066) Buy

12. WORK

The State of Working America 2004/2005 
Lawrence Mishel, Jared Bernstein, and Sylvia Allegretto.  ILR Press/Cornell U Press, Jan 2005/484p.
Analysts at the Economic Policy Institute provide latest data on growing inequality in family income, wage and benefit trends, the jobless recovery after 2001, persistent inequality in wealth, growing household debt, trends in poverty and near-poverty, labor markets in US states and regions, and the US compared with other OECD countries.   Authoritative, broad-ranging, and clearly-written.(FS 27:2/073) Buy

The 21st Century at Work: Forces Shaping the Future Workforce and Workplace
Lynn Karoly and Constantijn Panis. RAND, March 2004/258p.
On slower future growth of the US workforce, accelerating technological change, growth of distance work, etc.(FS 26:8/379) Buy

From Widgets to Digits: Employment Regulation for the Changing Workplace
Katherine V.W. Stone.  Cambridge U Press, July 2004/300p.
21st century digital production makes the workplace as place obsolete, and redefines concepts like employer and employee.  We need to revamp labor law, unions, and employment institutions to focus on employability, training, and other issues in a boundaryless economy.  (FS 27:3/143) Buy

OECD Employment Outlook: Towards More and Better Jobs
Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, Sept 2003/343p.
Survey of trends emphasizing the need for all OECD countries to adopt a broad target of reducing non-employment for both social and financial reasons. Schemes are discussed to make work pay and to ease access to employment. (FS 26:3/129)  Buy

Working Families and Growing Kids: Caring for Children and Adolescents
National Research Council. National Academies Press, Sept 2003/354p.
More and more children have employed parents, access to parental leave is limited, and children and adolescents spend more time in non-parental care. Quality of care matters, but much child care is not of high quality, and opportunities for care of adolescents are limited. (FS 26:3/126)  Buy

Fighting for Time: Shifting Boundaries of Work and Social Life
Edited by Cynthia Fuchs Epstein and Arne L. Kalleberg.  Russell Sage Foundation, Oct 2004/354p.
Authoritative essays by sociologists on changes in working time since 1970, changes in the idea of working time, consequences of a 24/7 economy and shift work for the American family, how professions wage a constant effort to increase efficiency against time, how variation in one's "work devotion" can make time seem exciting or draining, etc.   (FS 27:3/141) Buy

Career Guidance and Public Policy: Bridging the Gap
Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. OECD, Feb 2004/171p.
Career guidance helps citizens learn about employment opportunities and obtain job skills, but access to services is limited, especially for adults, and training programs are inadequate. this study reviews trends and policies in 14 OECD countries. (FS 26:8/389)  Buy

13. CITIES

The State of the World's Cities 2004/2005: Globalization and Urban Culture
UN Human Settlements Programme.  UN-Habitat and Earthscan, 2004/198p.
Survey of policy challenges as a result of globalization, cultural strategies for urban development, metropolitanization trends, international migration and cultural implications, urban poverty, regional trends in urban crime, and principles of an emerging planning culture. (FS 27:2/077) Buy

The Cybercities Reader (Urban Reader Series)
Edited by Stephen Graham.  Routledge, Jan 2004/444p.
Assembles 31 published writings and 32 commissioned pieces by writers from 13 nations and 12 disciplines, on such topics as cybercity archaeologies, theorizing cybercities, cybercity economies, public domains and digital divides, strategy and politics, and cybercity futures.  Wide-ranging and provocative. (FS 27:2/080) Buy

The Sustainable Urban Development Reader (Urban Reader Series)
Edited by Stephen M. Wheeler and Timothy Beatley.  Routledge, April 2004/348p.
Outstanding companion to the above, with 36 classic readings and 24 case studies.  Topics include origins of the sustainability concept, dimensions of urban sustainability, planning tools, and visions of sustainable community. (FS 27:2/081) Buy

Cities for Citizens: Improving Metropolitan Governance.
Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. OECD, Nov 2001/293p. Effective systems of governance are needed in all countries, and 11 General Principles are distilled, such as a prospective approach, coherence in policy, transparency, participation, and sustainability. (FS 24:3/119)  Buy

Sprawl Costs: Economic Impacts of Unchecked Development
Robert W. Burchell et al. (Island Press, Oct 2005/197p).
Spread-out development creates a never-ending upward spiral of infrastructure costs, separates rich and poor, causes unnecessary travel, inhibits public transit development, and consumes precious land. Policies for compact growth and remediation are proposed. (27:12/569)  Buy

Making Places Special: Stories of Real Places Made Better by Planning
Gene Bunnell. Planners Press, 2002/588p.
Case studies of ten communities where planning succeeded. Lessons learned include multiple initiatives on several fronts, strong leadership, and large numbers of people participating. (FS 26:7/340)  Buy

The Challenge of Slums: Global Report on Human Settlements 2003
UN Human Settlements Programme. Earthscan, Oct 2003/310p.
Global report finds almost 1 billion people living in slums—over 31% of the world's fast-growing urban population. Without firm action, this number will double in 30 years. (FS 26:2/062)  Buy

14. TRANSPORTATION

Toward Sustainable Aviation
Ed. by Paul Upham et al. Earthscan, March 2003/248p.
British experts point to a near-trebling of global air-passenger traffic to 2020, the $500 billion cost to meet this growth, hub-and-spoke networks, air freight supply chains, airline market liberalization/consolidation, and technical options for aircraft/engines. (FS 25:9/432)  Buy

Transportation and Sustainable Campus Communities
Will Toor and Spenser Havlick. Island Press, May 2004/293p.
University communities are seen as the leading edge in transport innovation, managing demand with free passes, parking cash-out, car/van pools, re-arranging work schedules, and infrastructure for walking and bicycles. (FS 26:7/349)  Buy

Faster Than Jets: A Solution to America's Long-Term Transportation Problem
Brad Schwartzwelter. Alder Press, Oct 2003/188p.
Proposes an "American Metro" system to transport people and freight in a network of maglev trains in underground vacuum tunnels built throughout the US and perhaps Canada. A clear and compelling argument based on the Swissmetro SA plan which could grow to a Eurometro. (FS 26:4/198)  Buy

Biofuels for Transport: An International Perspective.
International Energy Agency.OECD, May 2004/210p.
Biofuels have the potential to displace a substantial amount of petroleum around the world over the next few decades. Use of biofuels is still quite low everywhere except Brazil, where ethanol accounts for some 30% of gasoline demand and production costs are near the cost of petroleum. New conversion technologies will enable a decline in these costs. (FS 26:10/462)  Buy

Can Cars Come Clean? Strategies for Low-Emission Vehicles
Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. OECD, March 2004/207p.
Greenhouse gas emissions from use of petroleum fuels are increasing, but widespread adoption of improved technologies could increase energy efficiency by up to 30% and reduce GHG emissions by 50%. Measures to maximize the potential of low-emission vehicles are proposed. (FS 26:4/189) Buy

Still Stuck in Traffic: Coping with Peak-Hour Traffic Congestion
Anthony Downs.  Brookings Institution Press, July 2004/455p.
From 1982 to 1999, the percentage of daily traffic subject to congestion in 75 metro areas doubled. The average annual delay caused by congestion rose from 16 to 62 hours, creating enormous bottlenecks, encouraging sprawl, adding to pollution, and increasing stress. Evaluates 33 congestion reduction tactics, many of little use, and concludes that no single strategy can do it all.  (FS 27:2/087) Buy

Taking the High Road: A Metropolitan Agenda for Transportation Reform. Ed. by Bruce Katz and Robert Puentes (Brookings Institution, May 2005/331p). Growing traffic congestion and worsening air quality is forcing a debate over transport policy: which metro solutions work best and how best to distribute funds. (27:12/574) Buy

15. CRIME AND JUSTICE

Illicit: How Smugglers, Traffickers, and Copycats are Hijacking the Global Economy. Moises Naim (Doubleday, Oct 2005/340p). Editor of Foreign Policy warns that widespread and growing illicit trade in people, drugs, arms, and all sorts of knockoff goods is transforming the global system, creating a world of geopolitical "bright spots" and "black holes." Despite massive efforts, governments are failing to stem the tide, and nothing in the foreseeable future will turn things around. (27:12/591) Buy

Crime Prevention: Facts, Fallacies and the Future
Henry Shaftoe (Palgrave Macmillan, Nov 2004/208p).
Most popular debate about crime feeds on misinformation and panic. This intelligent overview argues that the criminal justice system can do no more to control crime, and offers 14 approaches for long-term prevention. (27:5/244) Buy

Thinking About Crime: Sense and Sensibility in American Penal Culture.
Michael Tonry  (Oxford U Press, March 2004/260p). A leading criminologist explains the unjust US punishment system with the highest imprisonment rates in the Western world, and suggests how to correct the worst excesses. Also see The Handbook of Crime and Punishment ed. by Tonry (Oxford, 1998/ 803p; 23:7/316) an encyclopedic overview still of much value. (27:5/245)  Buy

A Suitable Amount of Crime
Nils Christie. Routledge, May 2004/137p/pb.
A Norwegian criminologist questions crime statistics and the different meanings of crime, chastises the US for its high incarceration rate, and asks how large we should let a penal system grow. (FS 26:12/580) Buy

Beyond Criminology: Taking Harm Seriously
Ed. by Paddy Hillyard et al. Pluto Press, Sept 2004/332p/pb.
British social scientists argue for a broader "social harm" paradigm to look at the harms caused by economic policies, workplaces, governments, and poverty. (FS26:12/581)  Buy

The Cheating Culture
By David Callahan (Harcourt, Jan 2004/353p).
Cheating is up everwhere in the US, breaking rules to get ahead academically, professionally, and financially. Some reasons for the epidemic: new competitive pressures, bigger rewards for winning, and growing rtemptations to cheat. (26:3/118) Buy

Global Corruption Report 2005. Transparency International (Pluto Press, March 2005/316p). Political corruption involves a wide range of crimes and illicit acts. People worldwide view corruption as one of the biggest problems they face. Proposals for curtailment include laws on political funding and disclosure, public oversight bodies with adequate resources, fair access to the media, ratifying the UN Convention Against Corruption, and strengthening the OECD Anti-Bribery Convention. (27:7/312) Buy

16. HEALTH

Towards High-Performing Health Systems
OECD Health Project. OECD, Aug 2004/129p.
Promising directions for health policy in six broad categories: improving population health status, adequate and equitable access to care, health-system responsiveness, sustainable costs and financing, health system efficiency, and health system performance. (FS 26:9/439)  Buy

Priority Areas for National Action: Transforming Health Care Quality
Institute of Medicine
Quality Chasm Series. National Academies Press, April 2003/143p.
Seeks to narrow the gap between what the health care system routinely does and best practices. The 20 areas for quality improvement include health literacy, asthma, diabetes, hypertension, cancer pain, depression, stroke, obesity, old age frailty, and end of life. (FS 25:12/568)  Buy

The Brave New World of Health Care
Richard D. Lamm. Fulcrum, 2003/130p.
Former Colorado governor warns that the US health care system spends 50% more per capita than any other country and proposes a "new moral vision" that sets priorities, controls costs, and stresses public health, and self- responsibility. (FS 26:6/268)  Buy

(N) Generation Rx: How Prescription Drugs Are Altering American Lives, Minds, and Bodies.
Greg Critser (Houghton Mifflin, Oct 2005/308p).
A well-researched expose of Big Pharma and the soaring use of new drugs by high performance youth, middle aged seekers of comfort, and aging seniors.  Covers the new direct-to-consumer advertising, pharma lobbyists, and the rise in drug-induced injuries. (FS 28:1/033) Buy

The Impact of AIDS. 
UN Dept of Economic and Social Affairs.  United Nations, July 2004/140p.
HIV/AIDS is the deadliest epidemic of our time, and is likely to have an even greater impact in the future.  Impacts to date are surveyed in seven areas: population, families, firms, agriculture, health systems, education, and economic growth.  For current official thinking on needed action, see FS 26:9/447: A Global Response to AIDS: Lessons Learned, Next Steps (Science, 25 June 2004). (FS 27:1/002)

Coping with Methuselah: The Impact of Molecular Biology on Medicine and Society
Ed. by Henry Aaron and William Schwartz. Brookings Institution, Feb 2004/296p.
The 21C may well be the molecular biology century, and life expectancy may reach 100 by 2050. Chapters consider the demographic future, health care, labor market effects, impact on Social Security, ethical aspects, and scenarios of extra-long life. (FS 26:3/101)   Buy

Technology in American Health Care: Policy Directions for Effective Evaluation and Management
Alan B. Cohen and Ruth S. Hanft. U of Michigan Press, Sept 2004/460p/.
The definitive overview of health technology assessment in the US and Europe, the biotech industry, adoption and use of medtech in health care, etc. (FS 26:12/551) Buy

17. EDUCATION

(N) Towards Knowledge Societies: UNESCO World Report
(UNESCO Publishing, Nov 2005/226p).
On learning societies, lifelong education and knowledge societies for all, the future of higher education,  network societies, and promoting equal and universal information access as a fundamental right. (FS 28:2/051) Buy

What Schools for the Future?
OECD Centre for Education Research and Innovation
OECD, Nov 2002/250p.
An outstanding survey of trends and driving forces in schooling. Covers new issues in OECD countries, policy goals and tensions, six scenarios for the future of schooling, and expert views on learning for the future. (FS 25:4/152)   Buy

America's "Failing" Schools: How Parents and Teachers Can Cope with No Child Left Behind
W. James Popham. RoutledgeFalmer, May 2004/156p.
Author of 25 books on curriculum and assessment critiques NCLB accountability systems, and predicts that NCLB will implode in several years. (FS 26:8/370) Buy

Leave No Child Behind
James P. Comer, M.D. Yale U Press, Sept 2004/327p.
Head of the Yale Child Study Center proposes a broad child development focus on school reform. (FS 26:8/366) Buy

American Higher Education in the Twenty-First Century (2^nd edition). Ed. by Philip G. Altbach et al. (Johns Hopkins U Press, April 2005/558p). Wide-ranging overview of growing privatization and commercialization, the future of academic freedom, cutbacks in state funding and libraries, more part-time faculty and student loan debt, growing criticism, more turnover of presidents, etc. (27:5/227) Buy

Universities in the Marketplace: The Commercialization of Higher Education
Derek Bok. Princeton U Press, April 2003.
Former President of Harvard notes rapid growth of opportunities to supply education, expert advice, and scientific knowledge in return for handsome sums of money. He also considers intercollegiate athletics, protecting the integrity of research, and benefits and costs of going commercial. (FS 26:1/028) Buy

Lessons for the Future: The Missing Dimension in Education
David Hicks. Routledge/ Falmer, 2002/145p.
Argues that the curriculum should have both a global dimension and a futures dimension and offers insights on teaching futures over the past decades and how to promote futures education. (FS 26:1/039) Buy

18. COMMUNICATIONS

(N) Freedom of the Press 2005: A Global Survey of Independence
Ed. by Karin Karlekar (Freedom House, Sept 2005/226p).
An annual survey finding positive trends in several countries, but improvements outweighed by "a worsening in the overall level of press freedom worldwide...continuing a three-year trend of decline; notable setbacks occurred in the US and elsewhere in the Americas..."   (FS 28:1/018) Buy

(N) Synthetic Worlds: The Business and Culture of Online Games
Edward Castronova (U of Chicago Press, Nov 2005/332p).
An economist describes the fast-growing business of Massively Multiplayer Onoline Role-Playing Games, some with >1 million subscribers.  About 10 million people worldwide take part, and this total is growing fast. Will these synthetic worlds enhance human life, or promote "toxic immersion"?  Fascinating and important.  (FS 28:1/028) Buy

OECD Information Technology Outlook
OECD Information Policy Division (OECD, Dec 2004/382p).
Covers recent developments, globalization of the IT sector, e-business trends, IT use by individuals and households, the digital divide, IT investment and trade, potential applications in health care, and nanotech computing. (27:7/330) Buy

(N) OECD Communications Outlook
Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD, June 2005/324p).
The 8th in a series of biennial Outlooks on the telecom industry in 30 OECD countries, with chapters on the telecom market, Internet and cellular growth, market structure, network development, pricing trends, broadcasting services, employment, regulatory reform, and the global digital divide.  (FS 28:1/019) Buy

Transnational Television Worldwide: Towards a New Media Order
Ed. by Jean K. Chalaby (I.B. Tauris/Palgrave, 2005/264p).
An overview of cross-border TV enabled by satellite and cable, liberalization of legal constraints, evolution of content, elements of the emerging global media system, the cosmopolitan ethos, etc. (27:7/333) Buy

The Information Society Reader
Ed. by Frank Webster et al. Routledge, March 2004/449p.
A superb collection of 29 seminal essays by such writers as Alvin Toffler, Esther Dyson, Yoneji Masuda, Theodore Roszak, Manuel Castells, Herbert Schiller, Soshana Zuboff, and many others, representing a broad range of pro and con views. (FS 26:5/237) Buy

A Digital Gift to the Nation: Fulfilling the Promise of the Digital and Internet Age
Lawrence Grossman and Newton Minow. Century Foundation Press, March 2001/280p.
Like three earlier US public investments in an educated citizenry, a new initiative is proposed to enable a knowledge-bsased future for all: a Digital Opportunity Investment Trust. (FS 23:12/579) Buy

19. SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY

The Singularity Is Near: When Humans Transcend Biology
Ray Kurzweil (Viking, Sept 2005/652p).
The "singularity" is a period several decades ahead when technological change will be so rapid and deep that human life will be irreversibly transformed. Technology will allow us to design bodies and brains that will last longer and perform better. A huge, audacious book. (27:11/530) Buy

Phase Change: The Computer Revolution in Science and Mathematics
Douglas Robertson. Oxford U Press, May 2003/190p.
Explosive progress in science and math is taking place in virtually every area of research, due to rapid growth of computer technology. This is leading to "phase changes" in many fields, where very large changes occur very quickly. Changes are described in astronomy, biology, physics, math, earth sciences, and meteorology. (FS 25:9/437) Buy

Autonomous Robots
George A. Bekey (MIT Press, Aug 2005/577p).
Intelligent machines capable of performing tasks by themselves have recently proliferated, and promise to play a major role in our lives. Likely developments in the next decade are described for household and industrial services, the military, artificial creatures as pets and playmates, elderly and disabled care, construction, nanorobots, etc. (27:11/533) Buy

Space Policy in the 21st Century
Ed. by W. Henry Lambright. Johns Hopkins U Press, Jan 2003/283p.
Overview of problems and possibilities as regards space access, space commerce, earth monitoring from space, asteroidal threats and proposes, expeditions to Mars, and adapting NASA for the 21C. (FS 25:9/446) Buy

Infinite Worlds: An Illustrated Voyage to Planets Beyond Our Sun
Ray Villard and Lynnette R. Cook (U of California Press, June 2005/252p).
The universe has at least 100 billion galaxies, each with some 100 billion stars, and there may be 1 billion or more rocky planets the size of Earth. The extraordinary illustrations herein offer a glimpse of possible landscapes and atmospheres that may support life. (27:11/529) Buy

Emerging Risks in the 21st Century: An Agenda for Action. OECD International Futures Programme
OECD, May 2003/291p.
Focuses on five large-scale systemic risks: natural disasters, infectious diseases, industrial accidents, terrorism, and food safety. A framework for a systemic response involves a new policy approach to risk management, developing a safety culture, better international cooperation, and making better use of technology to reduce vulnerability and increase resilience. (FS 25:9/434) Buy

Our Final Hour: A Scientist's Warning.
Sir Martin Rees. Basic Books, May 2003.
The UK's Astronomer Royal warns that new technology can increasingly disrupt society. The rising potential for terror and error, along with growing risks of environmental disaster, makes the odds less than 50% that our civilization will survive the 21C. The British edition's title, Our Final Century: The 50/50 Threat to Humanity's Survival (Heinemann) is more to the point. (FS 25:5/236) Buy

20. METHODS TO SHAPE THE FUTURE

Futuring: The Exploration of the Future
Edward Cornish. World Future Society, April 2004/313p.
A wide-ranging introduction for high school and lower college levels, with chapters on earlier explorers of the future, six supertrends, understanding change, methods, scenarios, wild cards, and inventing the future. (FS 26:3/147) Buy

Foundations of Futures Studies: Human Science for a New Era (Volume One)
Wendell Bell. Transaction Publishers, 2003/368p.
Paperback version of a 1996 textbook aimed at upper college levels. Chapters on the nine major purposes of futures studies, nine key assumptions, epistemology, methods, and exemplars. Volume Two, Values, Objectivity, and the Good Society (Feb 2004/386p) considers utopian thought, universal human values, and values for a viable world. (FS 26:3/148) Buy

The Sixth Sense: Accelerating Organizational Learning with Scenarios.
Kees van der Heijden. John Wiley, 2002/307p.
A cofounder of the Global Business Network and former planner at Royal Dutch/Shell describes barriers to strategic success, cultural assumptions, scenario techniques, adaptive learning organizations, etc. Useful for stimulating practical futures thinking. (FS 26:3/149) Buy
ALSO SEE "Scenario Planning: An Evaluation of Practice" by John Ratcliffe, Futures Research Quarterly (Winter 2003, 5-25; FS 26:6/296) for an excellent  synthesis of lessons learned."

An Invitation to Foresight
Hugues de Jouvenel. Futuribles Perspectives Series, July 2004/ 87p.
An introductory essay by the editor of Futuribles explaining "la prospective" or "foresight" as neither prophecy or prediction, but as a tool to help us build or create the future, based on an array of possible futures that is always changing. One of the very best brief statements on what good futures thinking is all about. (FS 26:10/491)

The Causal Layered Analysis (CLA) Reader
Edited by Sohail Inayatullah.  Tamkang U Press, Dec 2004/575p.
Said by Jim Dator to be "the first major new futures theory and method since Delphi," CLA constructs problems through context, viewing them at multiple levels: the litany (most visible and obvious), systemic causes (social, economic technological, etc.), discourse/worldview (stakeholder positions and ideological views), and metaphor or myth (root level of questioning).  CLA can expand the range  and richness of scenarios, move debate beyond superficial levels, and lead to better policy. (FS 27:5/204, May 2005)

Predictable Surprises: The Disasters You Should Have Seen Coming
Max H. Bazerman and Michael D. Watson. Harvard Business School Press, Oct 2004/316p.
An event or set of events that takes a group by surprise occurs regularly. Visionary leaders seek to identify and avoid these surprises, but too many organizations are trapped in the status quo. The largest and most dangerous predictable surprise is global warming. (FS 26:10/496) Buy

Shaping the Next One Hundred Years: New Methods for Quantitative Long-Term Policy Analysis
RAND Pardee Center for Longer Range Global Policy and the Future Human Condition. RAND, 2003/187p.
New computer tools may radically transform our ability to think about the human future. Key to successful long-term analysis are large ensembles of scenarios, strategies to deal with many plausible futures, and adaptivity. (FS 25:10/462) Buy

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