Pessimism and Hope

One is tempted to answer such a question with one of the convoluted arguments from the long debate. Unfortunately, there is not enough space to have that much fun with it.

I am a social scientist by nature and by training. I have made a life of observing and attempting to understand human nature, and from this life I have drawn several conclusions. For one thing, there is nothing quite so dated as an era's vision of the future. The future almost never turns out as we imagine it — at this point, we should all be living like the Jetsons. A society's vision of the future says much more about the character of the people than it does about the future. A society that does not bother imagining the future, has already found the answers for itself, and does not consider change as progress.

When we look to the future, it is because we value progress. Progress is a fairly recent concept, dating from the Renaissance. The concept of progress has its antithesis; it is possible to make things worse in the future rather than better. Of course, better and worse are relative. Is the modern industrial rat race really progress over the sort of life one finds among isolated tribal groups in the Amazon Valley? The answer depends upon your values.

For another thing, I have built somewhat of a reputation as being able to predict future circumstances and events with some accuracy. There is nothing mystical about this. For example when I wish to predict government policies and outcomes, I simply pick the stupidest possible course of action I can imagine for the policy decision, and the worst outcome I can imagine that is still realistic. I have other heuristics that work equally as well.

Finally, for all my cynicism and pessimism (a pessimist is never disappointed because if you are wrong it is because things are better than you thought), I have trouble suppressing my hope. I look to the future for resolution of the issues, solutions to the problems, the ending of hunger and disease, and world peace. I cannot retain hope when I think about the past. The past is the sum total of human folly; the future is the sum total of human possibility.

Richard A. Barker
Planning and Control Specialist
Engineering Services & Products Company