Forecasts for the Next 25 Years

Forecast #1

The dust bowls of the twenty-first century will dwarf those seen in the twentieth. Two giant dust bowls are now forming, in Asia and in Africa, due to massive amounts of soil erosion and desertification resulting from overgrazing, over-plowing, and deforestation, warns environmental futurist Lester R. Brown.

Implications: The choices we make today as consumers and voters affect the future availability of water and food — not just in our own communities, but also throughout the world. We can promote tree-planting efforts to conserve soil and sequester carbon, and we can move toward less resource-intensive diets.

Forecast #2

Commercial space tourism will grow significantly during the coming decade. By 2021, there will be 13,000 suborbital passengers annually, resulting in $650 million in revenue. Many companies are currently working to make commercial space flight a viable industry, according to Melchor Antuñano, director of the FAA Civil Aerospace Medical Institute.

Implications: It’s unlikely that the average Earthling will be able to afford many pleasure trips into space, but commercialization offers intriguing career opportunities, ranging from astro-farmers to space-junk haulers.

Forecast #3

Nanotechnology offers hope for restoring eyesight. Flower-shaped electrodes topped with photodiodes, implanted in blind patients’ eyes, may restore their sight. The “nanoflowers” mimic the geometry of neurons, making them a better medium than traditional computer chips for carrying photodiodes and transmitting the collected light signals to the brain.

Implications: Scientific research is increasingly cross-disciplinary, as computer and electronic researchers draw from the biological sciences to explore new solutions. The techniques described here might also be applied to restoring mobility to individuals who are paralyzed, or perhaps undo the effects of Alzheimer’s and Parkinson’s diseases.

picture of electrodes topped with photodiodes

Forecast #4

Robotic earthworms will gobble up our garbage. Much of what we throw away still has value. Metals, petroleum, and other components could get additional use if we extracted them, and robotic earthworms could do that for us. The tiny, agile robot teams will go through mines and landfills to extract anything of value, and digest the remaining heaps into quality top soil.

Implications: Besides at least one interesting job opportunity — “earthworm drivers” — resource reclamation offers significant opportunities for investment, both in the development and manufacturing of the cleanup technologies and in the recovery of valuable materials.

Forecast #5

Learning will become more social and game-based, and online social gaming may soon replace textbooks in schools. The idea that students learn more when they are engaged — as they are when playing games — is helping educators embrace new technologies in the classroom. In addition to encouraging collaborations, games also allow students to learn from their mistakes through trial and error.

Implications: The “gamification” of education is a controversial approach that intends to leverage children’s sense of play and curiosity to promote engagement and exploration. Some critics question games’ utility in developing critical thinking skills.

Forecast #6

Lunar-based solar power production may be the best way to meet future energy demands. Solar power can be more dependably and inexpensively gathered on the Moon than on Earth. This clean energy source is capable of delivering the 20 trillion watts of power a year that the Earth’s predicted 10 billion people will require by mid-century.

Implications: A lunar solar power system such as the LUNA RING (an alternative energy plan from the Japanese company Shimizu) would be the largest public infrastructure project in human history, but it could pay for itself after only 15 years.

Forecast #7

Machine vision will become available in the next 5 to 15 years, with visual range ultimately exceeding that of the human eye. This technology will greatly enhance robotic systems’ capabilities.

Implications: Enhanced robots and automated equipment of all varieties will become increasingly integrated into our environments — not just in factories, but also at home, in schools, and in shopping centers. Are you prepared for “ambient intelligence” — smart surroundings that see you or sense your presence and then respond to you?

“I hope the World Future Society will continue to lead the way in promoting responsible research and I hope you will bring your considerable talents to the complex task of finding solutions to the critical problems likely to confront us within the next 5, 10, and 15 years. Your forum, with its interdisciplinary and international exchange of information, helps decision-makers see the potential consequences of the decisions they make today.”

Bob Edgar,
President & CEO,
Common Cause,
Former U.S. Congressman

Forecast #8

Advances in fuel cells will enable deep-sea habitation. Fuel cells such as those currently being developed for automobiles will produce electricity directly, with no toxic fumes. This advance will eventually make it easier to explore and even colonize the undersea world via extended submarine journeys.

Implications: Clean, long lasting, and affordable energy supply is a key factor to megaprojects like human colonization of the continental shelves and the shallow oceans, as well as the development of extensive deep-sea business sectors.

“I have been an enthusiastic reader of THE FUTURIST for many years, and applaud you on an excellent publication. It is hard to find people or publications that give serious consideration to what the future will be like.”

Ray Kurzweil,
inventor,
author of The Age of Spiritual Machines

“And what of the future of futurism? The World Future Society’s expanding membership suggests that it’s bright.”

Michael Rogers,
MSNBC’s Practical Futurist,
Former Futurist-in-Residence,
The New York Times

Forecast #9

Future buildings may be more responsive to weather fluctuations. “Protocell cladding” that utilizes bioluminescent bacteria or other materials would be applied on building facades to collect water and sunlight, helping to cool the interiors and produce biofuels. The protocells are made from oil droplets in water, which allow soluble chemicals to be exchanged between the drops and their surroundings.

Implications: Some trends may not be in our control as individuals, but technologies that enhance our adaptability and autonomy in the face of change could be a boon to our future security.

Forecast #10

The end of identity as we know it? It may become very easy to create a new identity (or many identities) for ourselves. All we will have to do is create new avatars in virtual reality. Those avatars will act on our behalf in real life to conduct such high-level tasks as performing intensive research, posting blog entries and Facebook updates, and managing businesses. The lines between ourselves and our virtual other selves will blur, to the point where most of us will, in essence, have multiple personalities.

Implications: We are already on our guard against people who aren’t who or what they say they are. Trust of others may also become more difficult to obtain, especially when it comes to protecting children from strangers, as suspicions may be aroused by the behavior of other people’s avatars.

illustration of avatars meeting round a conference table in Second Life

Forecast #11

The U.S. rich–poor gap is another disaster waiting to happen — probably around 2020. If the economic situation looks bad now, just wait until the end of the decade, warns former U.S. Labor Secretary Robert B. Reich in his book Aftershock. Present-day concentration of wealth in the hands of too few Americans, and the related problem of out-of-control consumer debt, will lead to economic stagnation and political upheaval with impacts felt across the world.

Implications: Individuals can take control of their own consumer debt, as well as prepare themselves for uncertain futures by investing in training for new careers, for example. They can also lobby their representatives to enact policies that promote their interests, but as Reich points out, the complexity of these issues may lead many uninformed voters to vote against their own interests.

Forecast #12

Dig very deep, and you will find enough geothermal energy to power the world. Geothermal energy plants today generate fairly limited energy, but that may be because they only channel heat from around 200 meters underground. Because the earth is actually much hotter further down, several Norwegian companies, as well as ExxonMobil, are planning drilling installations that will tap 5,500 meters to 10,000 meters or more underground.

Implications: This is one alternative that is being pursued as we approach “peak oil.” Just a fraction of the heat energy encased at these depths would suffice to power the entire world, experts assert.

illustration of planned geothermal energy plant

“Corporations and organizations should look to their future, but often don’t know how to proceed. The World Future Society offers wonderful tools to grasp unfamiliar issues and help understand new technologies.”

Robert Salmon,
Former Vice President,
L’Oreal Corporation

Forecast #13

The future is full of bicycles. Bike use is increasing around the world, as evidenced by the creation of bike trails, rising popularity of bike tours, and more doctors encouraging their elderly patients to bike for exercise.

Implications: Biking is seen as an easy, inexpensive solution to a large number of interrelated problems. As the world continues urbanizing, people’s health will increasingly suffer from environmental pollution and from sedentary lifestyles that do not allow for enough physical activity. Meanwhile, resource depletion will accelerate. Local transportation systems that encourage biking and walking could be a powerful antidote to these harmful trends.

Forecast #14

The Internet will automatically search itself so you don’t have to. The information you provide Google when you search for something is teaching the search engine more about you and your interests. One day, Google will become so savvy about you that your smartphone will pick up information from your environment, anticipate what you’ll want to know, and deliver it automatically.

Implications: It is easy to imagine abuses of such technology by companies that could profit from having access to so much personal information, warn privacy advocates such as Eli Pariser, author of The Filter Bubble. But we should also beware of even more-onerous laws regulating this type of information-gathering technology.

Forecast #15

Livable, economically viable manufacturing sites could be built on the Moon. It is feasible to create them within a decade. These sites, or colonies, could process materials on the Moon to create new products. For example, satellites could be fabricated and lowered to desired Earth orbits.

Implications: Advocates note that manufacturing products in space for use in space would cost much less than building satellites on Earth and then rocketing them back up where they’re needed. Lunar manufacturing sites could turn a profit within 20-30 years and offer huge long-term economic returns, according to satellite expert Joseph N. Pelton.

“The World Future Society is unequaled in the role that it plays in helping those interested in the future — from around the world — to be exposed to new ideas. Its publications are must reads.”

John L. Petersen
president, The Arlington Institute;
author, The Road to 2015

Forecast #16

Look for surprising strategic alliances across the globe. Germany and Russia will forge stronger economic ties, while Turkey and the Arab states eye Iran more closely as a competitor. Europe’s internal economic struggles will contribute to the continent’s fading as a global power, while Brazil will exert formidable economic and military influence in Africa.

Implications: World leaders will need to take a broader view in creating balanced strategies, particularly as their citizens become more global. Whether populations migrate or not, they are becoming more integrated with the rest of the world through virtual connections, which may have repercussions in international relations.

3 Ways That Futurists Can Create Tomorrow’s Jobs

The single biggest issue that most people are concerned about when they think of the future is their jobs. Many careers have disappeared as technological and economic trends have altered the workplace forever. But futurists offer techniques for thinking ahead on what the next changes will mean to us, such as using trend analysis to think about functions that may need to be performed.

Here are three basic approaches to creating a future job:

1. Retrofitting: adding new skills to existing jobs. For example, as space commercialization increases, tour planners may need to learn more about preparing clients for low- or zero-gravity excursions.

2. Blending: combining different skills and functions from different jobs or industries to create new specialties. For instance, as environmental factors are increasingly identified as the cause of health conditions, we may need more environmental-health nurses who can easily pinpoint an unusual new allergic reaction.

3. Problem solving: the supply of future problems for people to solve seems limitless, because new technologies bring unanticipated consequences. Young people may not care much about their privacy settings on Facebook today, but they may soon need the services of a digital footprint manager to erase their adolescent indiscretions.

From the special report, 70 Jobs for 2030, one of six thank-you gifts for signing up for two-year membership.

Forecast #17

Robotic surgeons will use bioprinters to repair and replace your organs. Several research centers are developing computerized instruments that will build living tissue layer by layer and implant it directly into human patients.

Implications: Robots are precise, tireless workers that will make surgical procedures less daunting, both for the human surgeons and for their patients. And bioprinting uses the patient’s own cells as a catalyst, so it will help alleviate demands for new organ donations and avoid the problem of organ or tissue rejection.

Forecast #18

Humans will eventually “lose” the race with robots. Even with every technological enhancement available to them, future human beings will not be able to keep up with the evolutionary pace of robotic humanoids with artificial intelligence.

Implications: Unlike human beings, robots are unimpeded by biological limitations to their potential advancements. The best we can do is to learn from and make friends with our robotic competitors.

Forecast #19

Climate change threatens to displace up to 70 million Bangladeshis. Much of Bangladesh is at or near sea level, so if the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s forecast of a seven-meter sea-level rise this century comes true, possibly 17% of the country could be submerged. That would render 60 million to 70 million Bangladeshis homeless and destroy the livelihoods of countless more.

Implications: The populations most vulnerable to natural disasters tend to be the poorest, who cannot afford to live in safer areas. But governments around the world can do more to share information technology and other resources. Bangladesh is investing heavily in flood and storm preparations now; however, India’s diversion of major river ways between the two countries could still spell major trouble.

Forecast #20

Future human societies may be divided between augmented and nonaugmented breeds. Those who can afford technological enhancements, including changes to their DNA, may become so significantly altered that they will no longer be able to breed with nonenhanced humans.

Implications: Would the augmented humans also begin to exploit the nonaugmented? And would the nonaugmented become resentful and revolt? Society may be headed for another period of segregation or apartheid if the nonaugmented and augmented breeds of humans feel threatened by each other — unless prejudice were to be bred out of everyone and altruism bred in.

“I will never forget attending my first World Future Society annual conference. What I remember most was the sheer excitement of seeing hundreds of people from all over the world engaged in serious debates about the future. The hotel bustled with scientists, economists, historians, philosophers, business people, academics, teachers, ordinary people debating and presenting new ideas about the social, political, economic, and technological trends and events for the next hundred years.

I was like a child in a candy store. I attended sessions from morning until late at night … I knew my life had been changed and … I had seen the future through a new set of lenses.”

Nat Irvin, II,
College of Business,
University of Louisville

Dear Reader,

We are pleased to present a few recent forecasts from members of the World Future Society and its magazine, THE FUTURIST.

In this special report, you’ll discover many other trends and forecasts that are likely to affect virtually all aspects of your life in the years immediately ahead. You’ll also see how you can forecast possible future developments in your own life.

portrait of Tim Mack, president of WFS At the outset, let me say that futurists do not attempt to predict precisely what will happen in the future. If we could know the future with certainty, it would mean that the future could not be changed. Members of the World Future Society have come to understand that the main purpose of studying the future is to look at what may happen if present trends continue, decide if this is desirable, and, if not, work to change it.

The ultimate goal of studying the future is to make it better. Trends, forecasts, and ideas about the future enable you to spot opportunities and threats while there’s still time to act. This report will show you why membership in the World Future Society may be the most powerful investment you can make in your own future.

A 45-Year Track Record of Successful Forecasts

In the more than four decades since its first issue, THE FUTURIST has correctly forecast many of the major technological and social developments of our times.

Some of these included:

The energy crisis of the 1970s;
The impact of communications technologies such as the Internet and cellular phones;
The rise and fall of the Japanese economy in the 1990s;
The impact of the Baby Boom generation on housing, schools, and retirement systems;
Human organ transplants and the use of artificial organs;
The widespread use of automation, robotics, and lasers;
Commercial applications of genetic engineering;
Telecommuting;
The Dow Jones stock index surpassing 10,000 by the end of the twentieth century;
Increased terrorist attacks on U.S. soil and the World Trade Center as an attractive target.

Shouldn’t you know the likely developments of the next 10-20 years of your future?

Of course, the value of a forecast is not just in whether it comes true or not. Sometimes the most useful forecasts don’t come true because people took action to avoid a crisis. For example, forecasts about the Y2K computer problem warned about the potential dangers of widespread computer-related problems. This forecast motivated people to take action to keep it from coming true.

Forecasts and trends are starting points for thinking seriously about the future in a rapidly changing world. These insights are just one part of how THE FUTURIST magazine and the World Future Society can help you gain…

The Single Most Critical Skill for the 21st Century

In this era of accelerating change, knowledge alone is no longer the key to a prosperous life. The critical skill is foresight. Knowledge quickly goes out of date, but foresight enables you to navigate change, make wise decisions, and take action now to create a better future.

We often think people are successful because of luck, when in fact it was their foresight that made them “lucky.” If you look at any successful person, organization, even a country, you will find a high degree of foresight. That’s why foresight is...

The Secret Ingredient of Success

Foresight is critical to achievement in all areas of your life, including your major life decisions. People who lack foresight are likely to find themselves unemployed when jobs are unexpectedly lost to new technologies, competition from overseas, or shifts in consumer tastes. Foresight is the key to survival and achievement in a world of disruptive innovation.

Foresight enables you to see opportunities, avoid threats, and chart the fastest path to your goals. The key to success is seizing opportunity when it arises. But you need to see the opportunity and be prepared to take action. That’s why foresight gives you power and agility to achieve any goal you want to achieve.

Successful people believe “I Create My Future.” Unsuccessful people believe, “The future happens to me.” That’s why successful people look ahead. They know that every day they are making choices that will affect the rest of their lives. They believe that they are largely in control of their lives and they create their own opportunities for success.

What Turns a Manager into a Leader? Or an Investor into a Tycoon?

Today’s fast-changing world requires more than knowledge and skills. It requires vision… a sense of the big picture… an understanding of the trends and patterns shaping the future… and the ability to see things not just as they are now, but how they could be.

The ability to see and create the future is the essence of leadership. It is the secret of outstanding success in any field, whether it is creating or growing a business, finding ground-floor investments, or even guiding your children through school and into successful careers.

How Foresight Built a Fortune

Alan Hald was a young Arizona banker when he attended his first World Future Society conference in 1975. There he met the editor of a new magazine for computer hobbyists. At the time, virtually no one except governments and big businesses had computers. You couldn’t buy a personal computer. The only way you could get one was to build your own from a kit.

But Alan Hald caught a glimpse of the computer revolution at the WFS conference that day. He went home in great excitement and began planning a business in the emerging personal computing industry. In the following years, his business became MicroAge Corporation, which grew into a multi-billion dollar enterprise and the largest computer distributor in the United States. All from a burst of inspiration and foresight that began at a WFS conference! That’s why foresight is…

The Wealth Secret of the WORLD’S RICHEST MAN

In March 2010, FORBES magazine named Mexico’s Carlos Slim the richest man in the world. His $53.5 billion net worth surpassed even that of Bill Gates. The tycoon controls more than 200 companies. According to The Wall Street Journal, Slim says his success comes from spotting opportunity early. He learned this in part from reading futurist writer Alvin Toffler, author of the bestseller Future Shock.

Toffler is a member of the World Future Society’s Global Advisory Council and has appeared frequently in THE FUTURIST and at WFS conferences.

The Key to Success in a Rapidly Changing World

Membership in the World Future Society gives you information, tools, and a network of forward-looking individuals around the world. You’ll have access to a wealth of unique insights on trends, forecasts, ideas, scenarios, surveys, and many other tools to help you think seriously about the future. You’ll be able to you look ahead to spot likely changes in your field or area of interest to gain an essential edge in a rapidly changing world.

So what are some of the tools futurists use? Here are…

7 Ways to Spot Tomorrow’s Trends Today

Since the World Future Society was founded in 1966, futurists have developed a range of techniques to study the future.

Here are a few techniques that futurists use to spot new opportunities and potential problems. These methods can give you and your organization an essential edge to help you succeed in a fast-changing world:

1. Systematically Scan the Media — Futurists often conduct ongoing and systematic surveys of news media and research institutes. These surveys help spot significant trends and technology breakthroughs. Futurists call this environmental scanning.

2. Analyze and Extrapolate Trends — After the trends are identified, the next step is to plot the trends to show their direction and development into the future. Trend analysis and extrapolation can show the nature, causes, speed, and potential impacts of trends.

3. Develop Scenarios — Futurists often describe the future development of a trend, a strategy, or a wild-card event in story form. These scenarios paint a vivid picture that can help you visualize possible future developments and show how you can prepare effectively for future risks and opportunities. Scenarios help you to blend what you know about the future with imagination about the uncertain. Scenarios help you move from dreaming to planning and then to accomplishment.

4. Ask Groups of Experts — Futurists also conduct “Delphi Polls,” which are carefully structured surveys of experts. Polling a wide range of experts in a given field can yield accurate forecasts and suggestions for action.

5. Use Computer Modeling — Futurists often use computer models to simulate the behavior of a complex system under a variety of conditions. For example, a model of the U.S. economy might show the effects of a 10 percent change in taxes.

6. Explore Possibilities with Simulations — Futurists create simulations of real-world situations by means of humans playing different roles. For example, in war games, generals test out tactics they may later use on the battlefield, or corporate executives can explore the possible results of competitive strategies.

7. Create the Vision — Futurists help organizations and individuals systematically develop visions of a desirable future. Visioning creates the big picture of the possibilities and prepares the way for goal setting and planning.

These are just a few of the types of tools futurists use. Each issue of THE FUTURIST brings you the results of the work of leading futurists from around the world. You’ll discover how to use these techniques yourself in your business and personal life.

So it’s up to you…

You can be a passive victim of change OR you can discover how to shape the future…

By looking ahead, you’ll make better decisions, avoid threats, develop your entrepreneurial vision, and seize opportunities that others never see. That’s why leading companies such as Ford, Nokia, Intel, Procter & Gamble, and the electronics group Philips use futures thinking. The British government has set up a “horizon scanning center” as part of its Foresight project. Notre Dame University now requires all of its business students to complete a course in foresight.

We’d like to send you a special report that shows how to use these and other futurist techniques. It’s called The Art of Foresight: Preparing for a Changing World. This report will show you how to use futurist techniques to prepare realistically and creatively for success in your personal and professional life. You can get a copy as a downloadable PDF FREE with an introductory membership in the World Future Society.

That’s why it’s all about…

How You Can Succeed in THE AGE OF HYPERCHANGE

Look how quickly our world is transforming around us. Entire new industries and technologies unheard of 15 years ago are now regular parts of our lives.

Technology, globalization, and the current financial crisis have left many of us reeling. It’s increasingly difficult to keep up with new developments — much less to understand their implications. But get ready…

If you think things are changing fast now, you haven’t seen anything yet…

The rate of change is skyrocketing. As inventor and futurist Ray Kurzweil notes, “Because of the explosive nature of exponential growth, the twenty-first century will be equivalent to twenty thousand years of progress; about one thousand times greater than the 20th century.”

Think how different our lives are today from the year 1900. Imagine that rate of change accelerated one thousand times. Just the next ten years promises to be a decade of momentous and fast-occurring changes. The only way to keep up is to look ahead.

We’re going to spend the rest of our lives in the future. Therefore, if we want to be practical, we must focus our attention on the trends and ideas that are shaping the future. What will these likely changes mean for you, your family, your career, your community, and your organization?

Today, it’s as if we’re driving 200 miles an hour and only looking into the rear-view mirror.

The Internet has given us access to a vast wealth of information, but it hasn’t helped us make sense of it. Meanwhile, the media spends most of its time on trivia. Governments and many businesses don’t pay attention to long-term opportunities and challenges ahead.

The World Future Society is a community of some 35,000 forward-looking individuals and groups in 80 countries. Since 1966, when the World Future Society was founded, we’ve worked diligently to share information on new developments, possibilities, forecasts, trends, and scenarios. This information helps individuals, governments, and businesses participate in creating a better future for themselves and the world as a whole.

As a nonprofit organization, we’ve put all our effort into sharing this information with everyone — not just governments or corporations. The World Future Society is politically independent, offers no official view of what the future will or should be like, embraces no creed or ideology. Only in this way can we give you the unbiased information you need about…

The Most Important Subject There Is: Your Future

“We can do nothing to change the past, but we have enormous power to shape the future. Once we grasp that essential insight, we recognize our responsibility and capability for realizing our dreams of tomorrow and avoiding our nightmares. Of course, we feel abysmally ignorant of how to proceed, but as we join together, forming networks of human concern about the future, we will find the strength and wisdom needed to create a better future world.”
— Edward Cornish, Founder, World Future Society

This is some of the thinking that went into founding the World Future Society in 1966. Its early supporters were people such as Nobel Prize winners Glenn T. Seaborg and Dennis Gabor… comprehensive designer Buckminster Fuller… science writers Arthur C. Clarke and Isaac Asimov… business and government leaders such as John W. Gardner and other members of the cabinets of presidents John F. Kennedy and Lyndon B. Johnson. It was a unique assembly of some of the world’s most forward-looking people. They shared a common belief that…

A Better Tomorrow Is Built from Wise Decisions Today

The World Future Society supports individuals and organizations by acting as a neutral clearinghouse for forecasts, trends, and ideas about the future. We serve as an early warning system to help you and your organization spot problems and opportunities far enough in advance. This information helps you prepare for likely changes, and see coming opportunities and threats while there’s time to act.

And, looking ahead is even more vital because…

It’s Not Just What the Future Will Be — It’s What It Could Be!

All of us need exciting new visions of positive possible futures to achieve. Just as John F. Kennedy’s call to put a man on the moon inspired people to do something many thought impossible, you can identify possible and preferable futures and work to achieve them. WFS and THE FUTURIST bring you realistic visionaries who have developed practical solutions for pressing world problems.

The Key to Creating a Better Future

Some futurists believe that almost anything can be done in 20 years. Consider that unleashing the power of the atom took only four years and putting a man on the moon took only eight.

Just as a building can be built if people believe it will be built, a desirable world might be created if people can collectively imagine what that world would be like and how it might be achieved. Futurists believe that to develop such a consensus, ideas about the future should be systematically generated and studied. The study of the future would thus become a major human activity. So ask yourself…

What Type of World Will Our Grandchildren Inherit?

We can do nothing to change the past, but we have enormous power to shape the future. A long-term outlook gives us tremendous power to solve problems and seize opportunities. We can learn to avoid repeating past mistakes and we can collaborate globally to create a better future world. We’ve got to be advocates for these future generations.

Now is the critical moment. The years ahead will create huge opportunities for individuals, organizations, and countries that are prepared — and serious dangers for those who are not.

Here are two case histories of how futurist techniques had a huge positive impact amidst change and uncertainty. One is the case of a multinational corporation and another for a nation in crisis…

How Shell Oil Foresaw the Energy Crisis

Shell was one of the first companies to adopt futurist techniques in the 1970s. Futurist Pierre Wack got Shell to see that oil production was not just about economics and technology but also about politics. Thus, Shell was prepared for the severe oil crisis of 1973, when OPEC countries cut off oil exports during the Yom Kippur war.

Then in the early 1990s, scenarios written by Shell planners foresaw the likelihood of a rapid and dramatic decline in the price of oil. This was the result of the discoveries of new oil fields outside of the OPEC sphere of influence, in combination with energy conservation. Positioning itself accordingly, Shell then rose from fourteenth to second place among the oil multinationals during the mid-1990s as prices fell. Meanwhile, Shell’s heavily over-invested competitors lost billions.

How Foresight Prevented Civil War

Futurist techniques helped South Africa emerge from its apartheid system without widespread violence or economic upheavals. In 1991 (three years before the end of Apartheid) a diverse group of 22 prominent South Africans met with a team of futurists. They developed scenarios designed to “stimulate debate on how to shape the next ten years” for South Africa.

The team presented the scenarios to then President De Klerk, and his Cabinet. They briefed Nelson Mandela in his jail cell and leaders of the ANC and other associations. The scenarios were published in a 14-page insert in The Weekly Mail and The Guardian Weekly, major South African newspapers.

Over the rest of the year, the team presented the scenarios to more than 50 influential groups throughout South Africa. As a result, the scenarios became widely discussed in South Africa at all levels, from taxi drivers to talk radio shows.

Ultimately, South Africa was able to make a peaceful transition to representative government and create a new future. It could have been much different, and the widely disseminated scenarios are credited with helping to guide the peaceful outcome.

The Key to Bridging the Gap Between Technology and Wisdom

A great challenge of our time is that science and technology are accelerating furiously, but our wisdom is not. We need new perspectives to allow us to reflect on where change is leading us.

We need new systems and institutions to help us understand the long-term consequences of new developments. Our technology is evolving faster than our capability to guide its development.

The World Future Society is the nucleus of a global network of thoughtful people sharing a common interest in exploring the world’s future. You can be part of this tremendous intellectual resource that can light the way for humanity as it moves into a future filled with enormous risks and tremendous opportunities.

And, to help you create a better future for yourself, your family, your organization, your investments, and your community…

WFS Membership Entitles You to These Exclusive Benefits

Join the World Future Society today and you’ll receive a wide range of exclusive benefits that will help you understand trends, gain foresight, and create a better future.

As a WFS member, you’ll receive:

THE FUTURIST: At the Forefront of Solution-Oriented Journalism

The World Future Society and THE FUTURIST magazine have strived over the years to fulfill a vital public-service mission, serving as a neutral resource of ideas about the future. As a member of the World Future Society, you become a partner in this endeavor. We're here to deliver to you the best solution-oriented journalism out there to help you navigate your rapidly changing world.

Why do we feel this calling so strongly? Today, while the mainstream media is continually focused on scandals and sensationalism, we at THE FUTURIST feel it's our duty to report on potential “fixes” to the big issues awaiting today’s and tomorrow’s young people.

Here are a few examples:

The Issue: Transportation

The industrial world’s addiction to cars is costly and will become more so. The U.S. uses roughly 21 million barrels of oil per day. According to a recent U.S. Census Bureau report, 2.8 million people have so-called “extreme commutes,” or commutes longer than 90 minutes. The Texas Transportation Institute has found that in the United States alone 2.3 billion gallons of gas is wasted each year in traffic jams.

Globally, the number of vehicles on the world’s roads will grow from 800 million now to 1.1 billion in the next 15 years. Public transportation is often cited as a cure for oil addiction. In the United States, the growing numbers of disabled elderly Americans will strain public transportation systems.

Fixes covered in THE FUTURIST magazine

Among the many proposed solutions covered in THE FUTURIST have been robotic vehicles similar to those that have served the U.S. military in Afghanistan and cars and trains powered by compressed air.

One of the most promising solutions to the global transportation dilemma: Electric car co-ownership in urban centers. By 2020, we will be shifting from privately owned gas-powered cars to shared electric vehicles, Ryan Chin of the MIT Media Lab wrote in THE FUTURIST. By engineering far smaller, lighter, and energy-efficient vehicles for city use and creating networks that make it easier for such vehicles to be shared rather than owned, urban design could be radically transformed.

The Issue: Energy

Experts predict that energy demand will rise by 60% between 2002 and 2030 and will require about $568 billion in new investments every year. Developing nations growing hungrier for scarce oil supplies, coupled with concern over the environment in developed nations, will signal the end of the oil era. Petroleum alternatives now comprise about 17% of global energy use and are growing at just 30% per year. By 2020, only 30% of global energy is likely to come from alternative energy sources.

FUTURIST Fixes

Among the creative solutions to the energy problem covered in THE FUTURIST in recent years are

“Crowd farming” energy by capturing the kinetic motion of people as they walk, run, or jump on connected floor blocks.
Genetically engineering saltwater algae for use as biofuel, a replacement for oil.
Ocean-current power, which could be captured by turbines in the Gulf Stream and provide energy for power-hungry states such as Florida.

The Issue: Hunger and Thirst

The number of people on the brink of starvation may surpass 1 billion, according to the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO). The earth’s population is projected to increase by 2.5 billion people in the next four decades, and most of these people will be born in the countries that are least able to grow food and are water-stressed.

FUTURIST Fixes

Some of the most innovative ideas offered to solve the food and water problems include:

The Food Pill, a nanorobot food replacement system proposed by Robert Freitas, the world's foremost visionary on nanorobotics.
The Play-Pump schoolyard merry-go-round that amuses rambunctious kids while pumping desperately needed fresh water from depths of up to 100 meters.
Another design with the potential to radically change the world: LifeStraw personal water-purification device, designed by Torben Vestergaard Frandsen.

The Issue: Health

The U.S. spends more money on health care than any other nation, roughly $4,000 per person annually. By 2025, the number of Americans aged 65 or older will expand from 35 million to more than 60 million, which will strain the health-care system regardless of the passage of any particular piece of legislation.

FUTURIST Fixes:

Telemedicine and robotic surgery, or rather computer-enhanced surgery, promises to make surgeries less invasive and less costly and improve patients’ health.
Genome-specific cures — basically writing software for cells.

The World Future Society and THE FUTURIST magazine are dedicated to bringing you unparalleled and unbiased coverage of our rapidly changing future — information that you can use to direct the unfolding of your life, your business, your community, and beyond. But our most important function is spreading visionary ideas and bold thinking to a global community of future-oriented individuals. We believe that only by working together can we improve our global future.

THE FUTURIST features the ideas of some of today’s leading futurist thinkers, like Ray Kurzweil, Kevin Kelly, Clay Shirky, Helen Fisher, Timothy Ferriss, Seth Godin, Janna Anderson, Ian Bremmer, Michael Mauboussin, and Cory Doctorow.

They join some of the great futurists of all time who have shared their visions with our members, including Alvin and Heidi Toffler, Arthur C. Clarke, Buckminster Fuller, Herman Kahn, Al Gore Jr., Newt Gingrich, Glenn T. Seaborg, Gene Roddenberry, Frederik Pohl, Hazel Henderson, John Naisbitt, and E. F. Schumacher.

Recent feature articles in THE FUTURIST include:

Relationships, Community, and Identity in the New Virtual Society — how the time we spend online is influencing our real lives, and how organizations are using these trends to create new markets while we redefine ourselves.
The Top 20 (Plus 5) Technologies for the World Ahead — the breakthroughs that will have the most influence on our lives in the near future, such as ubiquitous computing and machine vision, and five speculative technologies that will solve crucial problems, such as room-temperature superconductivity, which would be an enormous boon for electricity efficiency.
The World Is My School: Welcome to the Era of Personalized Learning — how using social-networking and gaming platforms could turn every online reading event into uniquely personal learning experiences.
Strategies for a Very Long Life — Can you imagine life at 140? You should! A personal-futuring coach offers practical advice for creating positive outcomes in six key domains: finances, health, activities, social life, housing, and transportation.
Vertical Farming: An Idea Whose Time Has Come Back — the urbanization trend meets the sustainability movement in innovative ideas for turning buildings into productive agricultural zones. But longtime readers of THE FUTURIST know the idea is not new.
The Age of the Interface — the way computers communicate with us has evolved from processing codes punched out on cards to directly interpreting our brain waves.

THE FUTURIST also features the latest news about breakthroughs and trends, activities among futurists around the world, and reviews of important future-oriented books you need to know about. Departments appearing regularly include:

Tomorrow in Brief — quick roundup of thought-provoking developments, such as the “Internet of Bodies,” “Space Junk Detector,” “3-D Movies Go Mobile,” and “Robots as Caregivers.”
Future Scope — a “scanner’s notebook” of research on demographic shifts, disaster preparation, telecommunications, climate change, criminal justice, public health, transportation, and much more.
World Trends & Forecasts — in-depth coverage of intriguing trends and ideas that may have widespread impacts across the six key futures sectors: Earth, Humanity, Sci/Tech, Commerce, Governance, and Futuring. Recent stories include:
- “A Chemical Mission to Mars,” on why we need to learn more about the origins of methane: does it imply Martian life, or merely geological activity?
- “The Troubling Future of Internet Search” by guest writer Eli Pariser, author of The Filter Bubble, on what Google’s efforts to understand you better could mean to your privacy.
- “The Gamification of Education” — on applying the engagement stimulated by video games to improve the learning process in ways that may render textbooks obsolete.
- “Unwasted Energy” — on two different approaches that physicists are taking to harvest “junk” vibrations from our environment and turn them into electricity.
Book Reviews and Books in Brief — focusing on important titles in our field that you may want to add to your own Futurist Library.
Future Active — reports on the activities of futurists around the world, as well as intriguing futures work done by a variety of institutions, including libraries, museums, government agencies, and nongovernmental organizations.
Highlights from the WFS Web site, including our bloggers and tweeters, discussing everything from the Arab Spring revolution, to favorite science-fiction books and movies, to the best songs about the future.

But THE FUTURIST is just one part of your membership. You’ll also…

Join a Global Network of Forward-Looking Individuals on the Leading Edge…

In addition to the unique information you’ll receive in THE FUTURIST, membership in the World Future Society also entitles you to:

Network with Other Forward-Looking People in Your Area — As a member you can join local futurist groups throughout the United States and in 117 cities and 39 countries worldwide. You’ll be able make important professional and personal contacts. Many groups sponsor seminars, offer lectures, take field trips, publish newsletters, hold discussion groups and other events. You’ll receive a complete listing of local and special-interest futurist groups with your introductory membership.

Attend Unique and Exciting Conferences — From presidential candidates to prominent scientists and businesspeople, WFS conferences feature thought-leaders on the cutting edge of change.

World Future Society meetings have been described as “a world’s fair of ideas” and “the greatest intellectual show on Earth.” No other conference brings together so many original thinkers and doers from so many fields. You’ll receive early invitations and members’ discounts for these important events.

Stay Current on the Latest Futurist News — Your membership also entitles you to receive Futurist Update. This e-mail newsletter keeps you in touch with late-breaking news. You’ll get up-to-the-minute breakthroughs, the latest research, news, and links to futurist Web sites around the world.

Interact with Other Thought-Leaders around the World — As a member, you’ll be able to participate in online forums exploring vital topics on the future. You can post your ideas and get reactions from others around the world. Current forums cover subjects such as education, futurist methodologies, preventing terrorism, global strategies, cyber society, future generations, and more.

Save on the Best Future-Oriented Books, DVDs, CDs and More — In addition to reviews and summaries of the best books, you’ll also be entitled to members-only discounts on hard-to-find books and other resources on future-related topics.

The 7 Essentials of Foresight

WFS membership and your subscription to THE FUTURIST will help you…

1. Prepare for the Opportunities and Challenges of Tomorrow — You’ll be able to capitalize on trends and avoid threats in every area of your business and personal life.

2. See the Big Picture — You’ll understand the larger forces shaping day-to-day events. You’ll see how the sudden and random events that make the news are part of larger patterns of change.

3. Be First to Know of Breakthrough Technologies — Chances are today’s hot stock is based on technology THE FUTURIST covered years earlier. You’ll get advance notice of exciting new technologies often years before they hit the news. Most importantly, you’ll have a context to evaluate the impact of new inventions.

4. Save Time — With the Internet and 24/7 news it can seem impossible to keep up with all the information you need to know. When you know the trends, you can cut through the clutter and focus on the news most relevant to your goals. You’ll see the tide and not just the waves.

5. Find New Solutions — You’ll gain new vision, expand your horizons, and be able to overcome mental roadblocks. You’ll understand the impact of changes outside your industry or area of expertise.

6. Make Better Decisions — You’ll have a much greater understanding of your opportunities, potential threats, and the long-term impacts of your choices.

7. Act with Confidence in an Uncertain World — You’ll have unique tools, information, and networks to help you act decisively amid complexity and rapid change.

World Future Society membership and THE FUTURIST are a total information system to help you succeed in a rapidly changing world. You’ll be able to position your career, your education, your family, your investments, even where you choose to live, in ways that use trends to your advantage.

Your Part in Building a Better World

Now here’s the most important part. Your membership benefits not just you, but also makes it possible for leading thinkers and doers from all over the world to study the future, helping to create a better tomorrow for all of us. The world faces enormous challenges. We need to work together to develop the wisdom and consensus to build a world worth handing over to our children. A better tomorrow truly depends on your support.

Won’t You Join Us?

To sum up, your membership entitles you to:

A subscription to THE FUTURIST (six printed issues per year plus full digital access on the WFS Web site);
A subscription to Futurist Update, the Society’s monthly e-mail newsletter;
The opportunity to network with other thought-leaders around the world through local chapters and online forums;
Special invitations and member discounts on conferences and seminars;
Special discounts on books, reports, and other products;
A PDF of the annual Outlook Report of more than 60 top forecasts, a $5.00 value;
A PDF of our new special report, Urgent Warnings, Breakthrough Solutions, a $9.95 value;
And the knowledge that you are helping to build a better tomorrow.

World Future Society membership gives you all this for less than 22 cents a day. Many newsletters or associations charge many times this amount.

Join Today at No Risk!

If you are not 100% satisfied with THE FUTURIST and other benefits during your introductory membership, you may simply contact us and I’ll see that you receive a full and immediate refund even up until your last issue. And you may keep everything we’ve sent you, including your free reports.

If you agree that the future consists of a variety of alternatives, that choice is unavoidable, and that refusing to choose is itself a choice, you have taken the first step toward a more active role in your own future.

The World Future Society can make a major contribution to creating a better future for all of us. Thanks to you, we may be able to halt the present trends toward calamity and move human civilization toward the bright future that exists within our imagination and capability.

I urge you to seize this opportunity to gain an essential edge in today’s rapidly changing times. There’s absolutely no risk — your satisfaction is 100% guaranteed. And there’s so much to gain. RSVP today!

Sincerely,
Timothy Mack,
President

P.S. SAVE when you join for two years and get EXTRA FREE GIFTS!

Join the World Future Society Today and Get Up to 6 THANK-YOU GIFTS

Join today and you'll receive FREE WITH YOUR ONE-YEAR MEMBERSHIP AT $79

Urgent Warnings, Breakthrough Solutions, 2nd Edition (PDF)

Futurists are a unique breed of thinkers, who aren’t content with simply being told what the future may be like. They have an urgent need to know how other prognosticators arrive at their conclusions, they question the levels of uncertainty about these forecasts, and — more importantly — they want their own tools and resources for understanding all aspects of the future.

For this second edition of the World Future Society’s exclusive report for its new members, the editors of THE FUTURIST magazine have selected recent articles that deliver the best possible introduction to what futurists do.

We begin with an overview of the global problems we now face, as two prominent futurists offer their unique perspectives on four different scenarios for how the world may address these problems.

The remainder of this report comprises thought-provoking articles that cover the six principal areas of futures analysis: Science and Technology, Earth, Humanity, Commerce, Governance, and the field of Futuring itself.

We hope this introduction to the future will show you that the urgent warnings all around us can inspire innovative breakthrough solutions that will help us all build a better tomorrow today.

With your one-year membership you will also receive a PDF of The Art of Foresight.

AND JOIN FOR TWO YEARS AND GET FOUR MORE FREE REPORTS, PLUS 20% OFF THE SECOND YEAR’S DUES AT $139

Get a Head Start on Creating Your Future Career

Discover three ways to create your own future career. Learn how you may be able to make a living simply by gathering data in your own environment. Discover which trends futurists are looking at to foresee such future job titles as:

Digital Identity Planner
Sensuality Simulator
Talent Aggregator
Astro-psychologist
Online Community Organizer

Unmanned Cargo Vehicle Operator
Time Hacker
Chief Experience Officer
Brain Signal Decoder (aka, Mind Reader)
Future-guide

Get details on these potential career opportunities in a special report, 70 Jobs for 2030. This PDF is yours free with a two-year membership in the World Future Society.

2020 Visionaries (PDF)

In a year-long series that ran in THE FUTURIST magazine, we asked 20 individuals, each with a unique vision and a unique voice, to share their hopes, fears, and ideas for the next 10 years and beyond. Some of these voices offered a new approach to the problems that we’re facing today. Others highlighted an issue or dilemma that will grow as a major concern. All of these individuals offered solutions, and all were highly independent. The 2020 Visionaries series showcases forward-thinking from top innovators, experts, and creative minds, including:

Open-source geneticist Andrew Hessel.
Nanomedicine pioneer Robert Freitas.
Communications scholar Janna Anderson.
Educator Mark Bauerlein.
Sim City creator Cory Ondrejka.
Media critic Andrew Keen.
Humanist Roy Speckhardt.
Religious leader Prem Suksawat.
NASA chief scientist Dennis Bushnell.
Futurist Jamais Cascio.

Geopolitical risk expert Ian Bremmer.
Iranian dissident Azar Nafisi.
Entrepreneur Jason P. Clark.
MIT Media Lab designer Ryan Chin.
Bestselling author Douglas Rushkoff.
Urban planners Pavlina Illieva and Kuo Pao Lian.
Net guru Clay Shirky.
Science fiction superstar author Cory Doctorow.
Stanford psychologist Philip Zimbardo.
Anthropologist Helen Fisher.

THE FUTURIST’s “Think Kit” (PDF)

In addition to offering its members glimpses into possible, probable, and preferable futures, the World Future Society aims to empower everyone with the tools of the futurist’s trade.

In this special report, the editors of THE FUTURIST have selected recent articles that showcase the futurist’s “think kit” — the processes enabling us to scan the horizon with a critical eye and to improve the decisions that we make about what may be over that horizon.

OUTLOOK 2012 (PDF)

Environmental threats and energy source opportunities; in vivo organ and tissue printing and buildings that self-adapt to weather fluctuations. These forecasts and more appear in THE FUTURIST’s annual roundup of thought-provoking ideas.

Remember that if you are not 100% satisfied with THE FUTURIST and other benefits during your introductory membership, you may simply contact us and I’ll see that you receive a full and immediate refund even up until your last issue. And you may keep everything we’ve sent you, including your free reports.

Please select your membership term:

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