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News & Previews from
the World Future Society
February 2006
(Vol. 7, No. 2)
RE: PSYCHOLOGISTS AND THE STOCK MARKET
Funny, I had a gut reaction to this article, based on a quick skim. But then I read the source article that this article was based on, and my opinion changed a lot.This study was a very simplified experiment based on fictitious companies. The primary goal was to isolate the "herd instinct" theory, and I think broader implications from this study are a big stretch. All available data for the "investors" was fictitious and extremely limited, so it completely disabled economist's and mathematician's core skills, while favoring the skills of the psychologists. That being the case, I think it is an unreasonable jump to theorize that psychologists fare better in real world investing.
With that said, I do believe in "behavioral finance theory." When so many "average people" trade stocks on the internet nowadays (including myself), one can try to guess the mass psychology of other investors. So far, I've been somewhat successful at this approach to trading, beating the market for the past four years.
-Rob
Email: ethnomethd-z@yahoo.com
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