WFS Home Page

Futurist_logo_yellow_72dpi.jpg (24529 bytes)
A magazine of forecasts, trends, and ideas about the future
January-February 2004 Vol. 38, No. 1

THE FUTURIST Cover Story (excerpt), January-February 2004

Wanted: A New Strategy for Globalization
By J. Ørstrøm Møller

Editors' introduction: Denmark's ambassador to Singapore argues that globalization gives us an opportunity to solve problems in a new way--with a worldview of cooperation rather than conflict. But we are now seeing a backlash against the technologies and economic systems that further empower the powerful. Legions of disenfranchised minority groups, downsized workers, and others abandoned by the high and mighty are blaming globalization for their woes. To avoid a massive social uprising, the world's power elite must make a stronger case for globalization--and build stronger ties with the masses they hope to lead to future prosperity.

A.jpg (1258 bytes)t the end of the eighteenth century, the world saw powerful new technologies destroying the social fabric of the agricultural and feudal society. The visible conflict was the Napoleonic wars, but beneath the surface it was really a social conflict between a society based upon feudalism and the new industrial society.

A century later, a similar conflict was brewing and at last erupted in 1914 with World War I. The second Industrial Revolution introduced technologies of transformation--technologies such as electricity, which could turn night into day, now allowed humanity to transform its surroundings. But as with the first Industrial Revolution, social structures were ripped apart, unable to accommodate all those striving for opportunities and wealth.

The revolutions wrought by the new technologies of power and of transformation both created growing disparities with regard to income, wealth, education, and access to knowledge on an unprecedented scale. They created tremendous wealth outside the established elite groups or classes of society, accompanied by destruction of wealth inside those elite groups. This led to the emergence of new political forces shaping the evolution of societies.

Our present societies epitomize exactly such a development. The new social disruption can be seen both within and between nation-states. Although clearly we have seen this disruption before, what is new is the strength, the speed, and the powerful repercussions it will have on our societies.

It is difficult to challenge the statement that disparities are growing both inside individual nation-states and between rich and poor nation-states. All statistical evidence points to that effect. It is equally difficult to challenge the view that tremendous wealth is being created outside the traditional elite circles. The new technology has the power to make some people extremely rich. The wizards of this global, high-tech economy may be worth individually about as much as the United States spends per year in development assistance.

The establishment is being crowded out by this onslaught of mighty economic and technological forces. The traditionally rich in society, having accumulated some sense of noblesse oblige or social responsibility, are losing influence as their wealth fades away. The new wealthy elite do not find it necessary to shoulder the burdens of society, their country, or the international community. Why should they? They believe they owe nothing to anyone other than themselves. The nouveaux riches have acquired their wealth by breaking away from the existing society, to which they feel no allegiance. Meanwhile, all those who lost jobs, income, or wealth do in fact belong to the core groups of precisely that society the new elite have abandoned. No reconciliation is in the cards. On the contrary, the nouveaux riches are distancing themselves from political and social responsibility, conveying the impression that this is not worthwhile and that those operating in these circles are losers.

One hundred years ago, we saw the working class coming to power. As yet, we have not seen a new determining political class, but we have seen well-established coalitions inside nation-states breaking up. In Britain, Margaret Thatcher ripped apart the post-World War II political consensus. She could work a new coalition while in power, but her successors cannot. In the United States, Ronald Reagan was the last president presiding over some kind of political coalition. Neither Bill Clinton nor George W. Bush has been able to shape a new coalition. Traditional and workable political constellations have been blown apart without any visible lasting and workable new structure rising to replace them. Political forces are ephemeral and malleable, not foundations for a lasting social and political consensus creating stability. There is growing uneasiness that this may pave the way for a decade dominated by nationalistic, maybe even populist politicians after the policy-oriented politicians in the 1980s and the management politicians of the 1990s.

. . .

Why Globalization Matters
Globalization is at the forefront of public attention because a rising share of economic transactions and dissemination of knowledge and information takes place at the international level. In the industrial society, most people could live a whole and active life without much connection to international economic transactions. Not so today. People are employed by supranational companies, they are being promoted or retrenched by companies with headquarters in other nation-states, and they get much of their information and entertainment from international channels. The sheer size of the global economy and its impact on nation-states guarantee that most people feel the consequences of the global economy.

But most people do not associate capital movements, trade, and transfer of technology with the global economy. Either they assume these activities are conducted at the national level or they consider them too abstract to care about. Rather, to them, the global economy and internationalism are represented by the institutions trying to rein in the activities of the supranational companies and constitute some kind of political framework--the European Union, the World Trade Organization, and the International Monetary Fund, just to mention a few. The majority of people aim their criticism and anger at these institutions, because this is all they read about and understand of globalization.

Most people still prefer the national political decision-making process, despite the fact that it has become more or less devoid of substance as the parameters that nations try to control have gone international. What they don't realize is that the global institutions they blindly criticize represent their only chance of gaining influence over the issues that affect them in the same way as they have in the national political system. This is why it is so difficult to move the political institutions onto the same level--international--as the matters they try to control, such as trade, capital movements, and technology transfer.

. . .

For those convinced that globalization is the best model, the challenge is to combine the benefit of economic internationalization with the right to maintain and even develop cultural identities inside nation-states. If we do not master that problem, nation-states will gradually break up, propelled by nationalism. This will herald not only the end of internationalism but also economic, cultural, ethnic, and religious confrontations of a very ugly nature. What we have seen in the Balkans for the last decade will not be the final chapter of political misconduct 100 years ago but a new pattern of international and national behavior.

. . .

About the Author
J. Ørstrøm Møller
is Denmark's ambassador to Singapore, Brunei Darussalam, New Zealand, and Australia and an adjunct professor at the Copenhagen Business School. He is the author of The End of Internationalism or World Governance (Greenwood, 2000) and The Future European Model (Greenwood, 1995). E-mail jormol@denmark.com.sg; Web site www.denmark.com.sg/jom.htm.

(Excerpted from THE FUTURIST, January-February 2004. Click to order.)

Send comments about our web pages to: webmaster@wfs.org
COPYRIGHT © 2004 WORLD FUTURE SOCIETY, 7910 Woodmont Avenue, Suite 450, Bethesda, Maryland 20814. Tel. 301-656-8274. E-mail info@wfs.org. Web site http://www.wfs.org. All rights reserved.