World-Changing Events: Democracy Revolutions, Natural Disasters, and Nuclear Dangers

This session will examine the global implications for the future of recent “wild card” events, including: Internet-facilitated, grassroots democracy movements sweeping the Middle East; a string of earthquakes around the Pacific Rim and ring of fire, focusing on Japan and its combined 9.0 earthquake, followed by a tsunami, and nuclear radiation/meltdown dangers. Middle East events parallel the significance of the fall of Communism from 1989-1991. Nuclear dangers (along with the Gulf’s Deepwater Horizon oil disaster) call into question the future of global energy policy. These and other policy implications for the future will be explored.

Who should attend: Anyone in business who seeks a deeper understanding of the dramatic changes sweeping the Middle East, as well as the triple catastrophe (earthquake, tsunami, and nuclear disaster) now facing Japan, and the policy implications for the future of these developments.

What you’ll learn: Participants will learn more details about the unfolding of these grassroots democracy movements sweeping different Middle East countries, the role of the Internet in providing alternative channels of communication to state-run media (without which these uprisings would not have been possible), and the important role of a country’s military in not attacking the people (Egypt) or attacking the protesters (Libya). Participants will also learn details of how Japan is coping with the triple impacts of a 9.0 earthquake, tsunami, and nuclear plant disasters and what the policy implications are for the future.

How this new knowledge can be applied: It is clear that events in the Middle East and Japan are transforming not only those countries and regions, but also the world in general. Supporting democratic movements in the Middle East instead of dictatorships will profoundly change the future of the Middle East and other countries’ relationships with the Middle East. The power of people rising up to demand greater participation in their own countries’ futures also has implications for other countries globally. Events in Japan (along with the Deepwater Horizon oil disaster in the Gulf in 2010) are causing a rethinking of energy policy around the world.

Linda Groff, professor, Political Science and Future Studies; coordinator, Behavioral Science Undergraduate Program, California State University, Dominguez Hills; director, Global Options and Evolutionary Futures Consulting, Playa del Rey, California

Fabienne Goux-Baudiment, French futurist, head of Progectiv Consulting Co.; starting new master’s program in Foresight and Innovation, Universite Angiers, France, beginning Fall 2011; and past president, World Futures Studies Federation, Paris, France
Kazuo Mizuta, Japanese futurist; emeritus professor, Kyoto Sangyo University, Kazuo, Kyoto, Japan

key words: grassroots democracy revolutions, Internet revolutions, earthquakes, tsunamis, nuclear radiation/meltdowns, Middle East, and Japan

issue areas: Resources and Environment, Government, and Security