Wiki-Futures

2010 is coming to a noisy end made by Julian Assange and his WikiLeaks. Regardless of positive and negative implications that Assange’s revelations may have for the future of mass media, the Internet, freedom of expression and global politics; different scenarios can be conceived in what I call: “Wiki-Futures”.

1. Game Over. While Assange is under house arrest in England for an upcoming not-so-serious trial, there are some weak and strong signals of further prosecution waiting for him either in Sweden or in the US in the coming weeks or months. If the prosecutors become successful in convicting Assange, then he may be forced to limit his activities and suspend WikiLeaks for a period of time or even forever. On the other hand, as the authenticity of information has not yet admitted by any government. Many commentators are skeptical about the real secrecy of the matter and consider it a funny game played by WikiLeaks under the supervision of global powers to shape the future of international relations and politics. If their desired dreams do not come true, then the game will be over and “wiki-politics” can be no longer used as an effective tool. Assange used the information he had found successfully (regardless of ethical and political considerations) right out of the box. Remember, once he’s thrown it in the garbage, the game is over!

2. A Safe WikiLeasks. There have been civilized reactions from most of the governments in response to Assange. They may not take him and his WikiLeaks so seriously, as any harsh reaction will give color and a patina of credibility to the information he has revealed. They want to take it easy and let the time fix the crisis. So, many prefer not to highlight the scandal, but to make a little tweak here or there to reduce undesired effects. This may give Assange and his supporters a reasonable incentive to save WikiLeaks for the future and thereby take a more conservative approach in their duelling. But a safe WikiLeaks won’t be as attractive as before and will gradually loose its audience and readers. Knowing this, Assange and his team may embark on a new strategy for their survival at the price of missing many of their readers.

3. Underground Wikis. Since no one knows the exact volume and extent of (so called secret) data Assange has obtained, probably new wikis may appear from underground websites. Given the cyber attacks organized and conducted by Wlkileaks’s fans as a protest against monetary transaction hubs, it seems that similar invasions may be on the way upon Assange’s conviction. In addition, more information may be published at underground wikis by unknown wiki owners. As I mentioned earlier (Future World Shapers, The Futurist, January-February 2011, P. 40-41), a new generation of wikis is on the way, embracing multimedia and interactive capabilities. Multimedia will have broader effects. Besides, Wiki writers will be quite an active community, and they will have to produce more articles in response to their users’ needs. This makes the evaluation of information they publish a hard job, as fake information cannot be distinguished easily from what is authentic.

4. Wiki Competitors. Knowledge is power and there are always people who seek power. A wild card scenario may be conceived when another wiki site or several other wikis enter the scene, revealing more secret information in the cyberspace. It may change into a new business and shape a new market for power customers in many areas of economics, politics, industry, technology and …. Both the governmental and private sectors in different countries will have to review their information storage and retrieval processes and take new steps and measures to reduce the leak of their information as effectively as possible. Hackers and anti-hack professionals will be popular characters or heroes in an unequal race for information and power and the attractive part of the story will be unfolded when a super-informant comes into the ring. He or she can be a real wiki competitor!

Is it a work of technology or politics? Are we doomed to tolerate inevitable consequences of technological progress? How about legal and jurisdictional aspects of the matter? Should they be interpreted locally or globally? In any case, it deserves attention and should be regarded as one of the real challenges affecting the future of mass media, the Internet, freedom of expression and the global relations and politics. If our thoughts and actions don’t investigate the urgency of the matter, wikis will change our contemporary world faster than we can read their headlines or leads, let alone with reading their full articles.