Twenty Years of Radical Innovation Ahead

Drought-resistant agriculture, medical scanning machines that diagnose patients with human-like expertise, microscopic factories that construct products nanometer by nanometer—these and other innovations will markedly raise the quality of human life in the next two decades, according to the three authors of 2030: Technology That Will Change the World. I recently interviewed co-author Djan Khoe, an electro-optical communications professor at Eindhoven University in the Netherlands, about the book and the developments that he and fellow authors describe in it. My questions and his answers are below.

Rick Docksai: You anticipate computer chips with sensors gaining a certain “awareness” of their environment and ability to act upon it. Cyber-security will doubtless remain a concern, as it is today. But what prospects do chips with this “awareness” hold for making computers safer? I’m wondering if computers outfitted with them will more easily recognize viruses, malware, and hacker intrusions? And in the event of a virus “infection,” they might reconfigure to contain the damage?

Djan Khoe: An example of a successful combination of computers and sensors is the Anti-lock Brake System (ABS). The system is able to decide in split seconds whether the brake pressure has to be released or restored. It is impossible for humans to perform in that way, we are simply too slow. This is also an example where the system does not rely on human decisions at all.

A combination of computers, sensors and control systems also facilitates specific aircrafts to fly that are otherwise unstable. So yes, I believe that the combination of computers and sensors will play a more important role in society and ultimately also facilitate the self healing actions that you mention.

Rick Docksai: Your chapter on radio bandwidth described ways to make room on the spectrum for many more stations than exist today. How much more competition might stem from these innovations? People today complain about a lack of music variety on FM radio. And industry critics have warned for many years that too few corporations control too many radio stations and Internet portals. How might this change?

Djan Khoe: The radio bandwidth is limited while at the same time, the bandwidth offered by optical fibers is huge. The trend in densely populated areas will be towards much more use of optical fibers, leaving radio connection only for a small cell of space around users who are on the move. Inside such a small cell, the user may benefit from almost the entire radio bandwidth.

An intelligent fiber network will facilitate these radio cells, monitoring the movements of the user and activating adjacent cells along the movement. A sensible way to serve society is to limit control of these communication facilities, similar to the situation on roads and air traffic space. This allows for a more open competition between industries. The combination of higher capacity and open competition will generate more diversity in applications and services.

Rick Docksai: Manufacturing is about to shift from big facilities to “micro-plants,” as another chapter in your book described. If the processes take place on such a tiny scale, what role would humans play in managing them? Or might far fewer human workers be needed? How many manufacturing jobs for humans will probably disappear?

Djan Khoe: An interesting phenomena in business are the micro breweries and small wineries. They do quite well despite of giant producers world wide. And humans play a very important role in those small scale activities. I expect that humans are needed to control and to manage micro plants because they will need updates and innovations all the time.

Science and technology will play a key role in the existence and competition between these small factories. In addition, small plants are much more flexible than giant ones and can be adapted more quickly to new demands and applications. So altogether, some jobs will disappear but many more will be generated owing to these developments.

Rick Docksai: You portray exciting scenarios for medical scanning technologies that can essentially think like doctors and apply medical knowledge to identify disorders and treatments. But how much faith will doctors put in the systems? Given that computers can err, and given that most hospitals today are already fearful of lawsuits, what balance might they strike between the computer’s assessments and those of the doctor? What potential harms exist that some doctors might hand over too much of the work to the computer?

Djan Khoe: In the future, medical scanning technologies will produce a huge amount of data. Without proper analysis tools, humans will not be able to benefit from all that. The combination of more accurate scanning technologies and intelligent analysis tools will facilitate doctors to take the right conclusions and to make better decisions.

One example is prostate cancer, where early treatments are mostly much more successful than treatments at a later stage. Biopsies are expensive and invasive. Here we need a tool for an early diagnosis that reveals precise details and at the same time, avoids high costs and invasiveness.

Rick Docksai: In your chapters on global security, you note that civil wars are increasing. This reminds me of the rising tensions over immigration in Europe and North America. Governments in both regions are imposing more restrictions on Gypsies, Muslims, and other “outsider” groups. Also, many U.S. and European politicians openly demonize these groups and push to marginalize them. How might all this play out? And how hopeful are you that it won’t contribute to more violence, like the 2005 Paris riots, the 2005 London bombings, or the 2004 slaying of Dutch filmmaker Theo Van Gogh?

Djan Khoe: Immigration has always been the reason for tensions among human populations. This may go back as far as the time of our prehistoric ancestors. Time has changed however. Today, these issues are immediately revealed world wide and we can all evaluate discussions between rivaling opinions. The last military violence inside Europe was the local war in former Yugoslavia. In that case, the main reason was immigration in a rather distant past.

Usually, the main problem is poverty. So the key solution is to spend more efforts to spread prosperity more evenly. Prospering groups will have less interest in radical opinions and methods, because such will hamper further developments.