The Third Lesson

The recent massive earthquake accompanied by a devastating tsunami and, worse, by the explosion of nuclear reactors endangered the lives of many Japanese. It proved once again that the future is not in control. It is as uncertain as before.

With hindsight, it is clear that the current disaster emerged out of the blue–-it is a manifestation of pressures built up by vibrant layers of the earth. But don’t we need to consider how the world will be different in coming years? Before this crisis subsides, we should begin to think about how our environmental strategies need to readapt. Remember that the same thing may happen to you and me in other deferent ways–-living on earth is a kind of peaceful coexistence with natural disasters. Do you remember Katrina?

We know that weak signals are current oddities, strange issues that are thought to be in key position in anticipating future changes in different environments. Most of the scientists agree with the notion that the behaviors of nature are different from ours and most of the time it cannot be predicted or anticipated as we do with our own actions. Nature is usually unpredictable. Even the most accurate weather forecasts experience degrees of uncontrollable delays or inaccuracies. We are facing two different systems: 1) Uncontrollable Nature; 2) Controllable Human Factors.

However, defining weak signals is problematic, and various authors term the concept differently. The debate about the characteristics of weak signals has been active especially in recent years. As early as 1975, Ansoff, who was among the first people contributing to the field of weak signals, wrote about the issue in order to overcome some problems in strategic planning. Ansoff described weak signals as “… warnings (external or internal), events and developments which are still too incomplete to permit an accurate estimation of their impact and/or to determine their full-fledged responses.”

Coffman and others have also put emphasis on the practical aspects of using weak signals in the business environment. Several other authors have also considered the business environment and organizational viewpoints of weak signals. Surely geologists and natural scientists have their own patterns of identifying weak signals, but how can they blow into their horns on time?

A day before the accident, another quake had shocked some parts of the country, with just one injured. Could it be analyzed carefully to find out other probable quakes that were on the way? I’m neither a geologist nor a crisis manager, but if I were an authority responsible for the safety of the people I would let them be informed of what was going on just beneath their feet.

No one can be blamed for natural disasters and no one can justify his/her unaccomplished responsibility and duties. The problem lays in the way we behave with nature, not its uncontrollable behavior toward us. We should control our own living and performance, not nature’s. Have we built our homes in safe areas? Have we considered reliable distances from seashores? How seriously are the standards of construction taken in our buildings and cities? We may have a great volume of knowledge on the standards of planning cities or building houses, but how much of that knowledge is applied in our construction activities?

I remember the third lesson of great explorers that once Edward Cornish taught us in his great book, Futuring: “Use poor information when necessary.” Obviously, we want to use the best available, but when required to make decisions we must not disdain information just because it may not be adequately detailed or may contain errors. Almost everything we don’t know about the future has little practical importance to us, whereas the little that we can know is extremely important, because it can help us make better decisions. Remember that our business with the future is to improve it, not to predict it—at least not infallibly. We may have erroneous or insufficient information about the place we live in, but even that piece of information can save our and many others’ lives if it is used wisely and on time.

In my point of view, tomorrow’s urban decision makers will have to work in a climate of reduced response time and increased disaster potential. There will likely be less public tolerance for casualties, continuing confusion over the lengths and limits of crisis, new subliminal forms of tolerance, and further confusion over decisions from state actors to non-state entities such as relief agencies or regional authorities.

By the way, do you know that “tsunami” is a Japanese word?

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Alireza Hejazi is the founder and developer of “FuturesDiscovery.com” and the author of e-books: “Futures Discovery,” “ATLAS of futures links,” and “Top 10 Cases of Futures Studies Syllabus.” His most recent e-book, Writing for the Future, is available at:
http://www.futuresdiscovery.com