Streetlights and Shadows: Searching for the Keys to Adaptive Decision Making

Decision makers sometimes put their faith in logic and data when intuitive thinking would really be the better guide, says scientist Gary Klein in Streetlights and Shadows.

He notes that most adults assume that the way to plan for the future is to gather copious information about the matter at hand and carefully consider the available options. This may be true only in situations that are well-ordered and predictable. But real life is often complex, random, and prone to dramatic changes in short spans of time.

We often are pressed to make decisions without having all the information at hand, or where change is taking place rapidly and unpredictably. Trying to analyze the environment and predict what will happen next could be futile, and maybe even counterproductive.

Klein urges decision makers to alter their planning methods when they are faced with unexpected events. This means revising a lot of deeply ingrained beliefs: accepting that biases aren’t always bad, logic does not always help, gathering more information can confuse instead of clarify, and generating multiple options might do more harm than good. There are times to conduct analysis, Klein says, and there are times to let experience and intuition pinpoint the answers.

Streetlights and Shadows is a sharp assessment of planning methods and their relative strengths and weaknesses. Consultants and organization leaders may find it an insightful read.