Scenario Development in the Legislative Branch

The case study of a congressional agency will be used to illustrate unique challenges facing the use and development of scenarios in a legislative branch agency. At the United States Government Accountability Office, strategic planners review scenarios on a broad range of issues as part of strategic planning; economists use Crystal Ball software in Monte Carlo simulations to evaluate scenarios as part of policy and program analysis; and there is current work to integrate scenario development with a technology assessment of climate engineering. As part of its evaluation function, GAO also can review scenarios developed by executive branch agencies. Audience members will be encouraged to provide their own examples identifying opportunities for—and challenges facing—scenario development and use within public sector organizations and how these can be addressed.

Who should attend: Those with special interest in understanding the use of scenarios in the public sector.

What you’ll learn: Participants will learn about opportunities and challenges to scenario use and development and the range of approaches used within a congressional agency.

How this new knowledge can be applied: These experiences may be applied by foresight practitioners working within, or in collaboration with, the public sector.

Nancy Donovan, senior analyst in GAO’s Applied Research and Methods group, Washington, D.C.

Helen Hsing, managing director, Strategic Planning and External Liaison, United States Government Accountability Office, Washington, D.C.

key words: simulations, scenarios, scenario development
issue areas: Governance and Communities, and Futures Methodologies