The Rational Optimist: How Prosperity Evolves
by Matt Ridley. HarperCollins. 2010. 422 pages. Paperback. $26.99.
Throughout the last two centuries, experts have repeatedly warned that civilization was headed for an imminent collapse and that society would shortly descend into anarchy, epidemics, famines, or other such catastrophes—yet the future kept turning out better than they had expected, says conservationist Matt Ridley.
The disasters never materialized, and instead living standards everywhere continuously improved. People in the twenty-first century are living longer, eating healthier, earning more, and enjoying vastly more and better amenities than they have at any time in human history.
“Apoca-holic” experts, Ridley argues, accurately described existing problems but failed to consider that future technological innovations might mitigate them. No one in the early 1800s foresaw the rise of fast transit by steam-engine trains, for example, and even the most savvy computer-industry experts in the 1960s had no idea that microchips would shrink computers to sizes that would fit inside users’ home offices.
Ridley advises having some hope in the capacity of future generations to solve problems that may seem insurmountable today. The key, he says, is making sure that our institutions and laws promote innovation rather than stifle it.
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