The Kubler-Ross stages of Greece

I got the graphic below from the punk-rock financial analysts of ZeroHedge, a comparison of the mindset about insolvent Greece to the Kubler-Ross stages of grief in dealing with any death: Denial, Anger, Bargaining, Depression, Acceptance. The fiscal collapse is very similar to death - the end of Greece's old economic structure is certain, it is only a matter of how long it takes the rest of the world to accept the inevitable.

In other news, I am noticing a change in executive mindsets as I brief companies on the major strategic changes of the day. The Kubler-Ross stages are not only applicable to the specific problems of Greece, but about the global economic transition in general. Currently, many people in the Industrial West (and a few in China) persist in calling the current state of things a "recession," a very normal cyclical problem in which numbers are a bit down but the system will keep growing. There is very little indication that what we are facing is a mere recession. Please see any presentation I have done in the past three years for the statistics underlying my assumptions here.

In the three years since the first seizure of the economic system in 2008, most people have been in denial. I have heard the phrase, "we'll just do this until the economy comes back" countless times. The enormity of the economic destruction of the last decade has not sunk into the mindsets of many leaders, and as such they comfort themselves by comparing the situation to recessions of the 70s, 80s, and 90s. The comparison is inappropriate given the structural reality of the situation, but frankly it's probably too much to handle, so denial is easier.

There is a group of people who have moved onto the Anger phase - those who have been out of work and ceased playing the same game. Maybe they have lost hope, turned to crime, switched careers, or lowered their expectations, but they are moving along the continuum toward acceptance of a brand new reality.

That said, I am beginning to see the end of denial. I am hearing more and more willingness to accept the validity of a worldview that says the old economy is never going to return. I hear Baby Boomers realizing that perhaps Wall Street investment is not the only way to a prosperous retirement. My colleagues in economic development tell me of a movement away from attracting large business and toward the much harder path of cultivating integrated communities of small businesses that grow and add jobs one at a time. I hear of the political will in countries such as Iceland and Greece to disconnect from the large economic system and return to living within their means.

It is understandable that people would not necessarily jump for joy at accepting a world full of real challenges, of risk, of potential chaos. We have become quite accustomed to stability. Accepting its loss will likely require moving through periods of anger, bargaining, and depression. We are indeed on a journey every bit as maturing as the acceptance of our own mortality. That is the work of adults, after all. And the work of real leaders, as well.