How to Unite the Thinking of Futurists

In order to establish a system of continuous forecasting of some medium-term indicators in economy, and social sphere. Such indicators as, for example, oil price, are important for the governments in terms of the annual budgeting process and for the community as a whole. Participants will be involved in forecasting simultaneously and independently. The participants can make forecasts for each of 12 months. The results will be compared to the actual data and two ratios will be calculated: 1) forecast hit ratio with actual data from 0 to 100%, and 2) forecast reliability ratio from 0 to 100%. These data will be calculated for each participant and at the average for all participants. Thus the system employs (and checks) the opportunities of collective forecasting. Moreover, each participant will receive a personal error signal. It will provide a real basis to enhance the future methods. Making a more reliable forecast of global indicators of economic development – one of the factors for stabilization of global economy.

Who should attend: Anyone interested in new forecasting techniques, representatives of governments responsible for preparation of annual budget estimates for the countries they represent.

What they will learn: Attendees will learn about a new technique of continuous and collective forecasting of medium-term economic and social development indicators and about techniques for improvement of the future methods. By indicators we mean oil price, gold price, dollar rate, unemployment level and other.

How this new knowledge can be applied: The new knowledge can be applied to increase the accuracy of medium-term forecasts, to improve the future methods and to obtain more accurate data for preparation of annual budget estimates for the countries for various countries.

Anvar Idiatullin, founder, member, and researcher, Moscow Regional Council, Pradinsky, Russia

key words: continuous forecasting of social indicators, collective forecasting, stabilization of global economy

issue areas: Futures Methodologies, Governance and Communities