Predictions: Government

Prediction: Algeria will be the next country to undergo an “Arab Spring” revolution (i.e., some time before 2015).

Who: Bruce Riedel, senior fellow in the Saban Center for Middle East Policy at the Brookings Institution

Background: The conditions that bred uprisings in Tunisia, Egypt, and Libya exist in full in Algeria: a surging youth demographic, dearth of jobs, and a political system that allows its citizens little voice and no chance of holding officials accountable in any serious way. Plus, Algerians have already been staging massive demonstrations against their government’s oppressive ways since late last year. If any Arab country seems ripe for an upheaval, Algeria would be it.

Why Great: Algeria means a lot of things to a lot of people. First, it is the largest country in both the Arab world and Africa, so the fall of its government might mean unusually large outpourings of refugees to neighboring African countries and to Europe. Second, the country holds some of the biggest reserves of oil and natural gas in the Middle East, so Western powers are bound to intervene: Future wars, like that in Libya, are sure to follow, and given Algeria’s centuries-old tradition of localized self-rule among clans that spat with each other frequently, could become very destructive. Third, Algeria is home to several militant Islamist movements, including a large branch of Al-Qaida, which makes any Algerian power vacuum all the more dangerous.

BUT… Many outcomes could follow, some better than others. If pro-democracy revolutionaries prevail, and they receive adequate support from donor countries after the revolution, then a stable and viable new Algeria could emerge.

Bottom Line: Northern Africa won’t be quieting down any time soon. Concerned nations across the Mediterranean had best stay attentive.

Source: National Interest, http://nationalinterest.org/commentary/algeria-will-be-next-fall-5782

Prediction: Military conflict in East Asia and the Western Pacific will be centered in the South China Sea throughout the next few decades.

Who: Robert D. Kaplan, senior fellow at the Center for a New American Security, national correspondent for The Atlantic, and a member of the U.S. Defense Department’s Defense Policy Board

Why Noteworthy: According to Kaplan, the author of Monsoon: The Indian Ocean and the Future of American Power (Random House, 2010), the South China Sea will be the site of Asian emerging economies’ territorial disputes and expansion attempts. Energy resources in particular are at stake. To that end, these countries are strengthening their naval and air forces (and in some cases may attempt to further rely on the United States Navy as well).

BUT… In the event of an actual conflict, the silver lining is that civilian casualties would be greatly reduced or altogether nonexistent. “We are dealing with a naval realm, in which civilians are not present,” Kaplan states. Also, he believes that, in all likelihood, “major warfare will not break out in the area and that instead countries will be content to jockey for position with their warships on the high seas, while making competing claims for natural resources and perhaps even agreeing to a fair distribution of them.”

Bottom Line: If war breaks out in the region, then it will be at sea.

Source: http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/08/15/the_south_china_sea_is_the_future_of_conflict

Prediction: Thanks to the Internet and social media, the rich and powerful will be forced to share authority with formerly disempowered individuals and groups by 2020.

Who: Craig Newmark, founder of craigslist.org, in a guest editorial on Wired.com.

Why Great: Newmark predicts that by 2020, a “new equilibrium” will arise “between the traditional holders of power and unexpected influencers arising from the grassroots.” He explains, “This will be paralleled with major changes in the media landscape, as the formerly powerless exercise power influence via evolving media, which is undergoing simultaneous change with the political landscape.” Newmark points to recent examples of this trend to back up his claims.

BUT… Newmark is more than a little vague on where everything is heading. “The big changes are barely emerging, and will arise from unexpected quarters,” he writes. “It’ll involve centuries of change compressed to a few years.” But it appears to be anyone’s guess as to what those changes will be.

What to do about it: Either utilize Internet-mediated mass media and social media to affect real change or just sit back and watch leaderless grassroots groups self-organize spontaneously.

Bottom Line: “Mass media and politics evolve together, in inseparable ways,” writes Newmark.

Source: http://www.wired.com/epicenter/2011/06/column-singularity-newmark/

Prediction: The world will be more multilateral by 2025.

Who: Princeton University professor of politics and international affairs (and former director of policy planning for the United States Department of State) Anne-Marie Slaughter, in an article for Foreign Policy.

Why Great: According to Slaughter, the “increasingly global and regional nature of our problems” is the driving force behind this movement. As a result, regional organizations, such as the African Union and the recently created Mediterranean Union, will be more empowered. “By 2025 the U.N. Security Council will have expanded from the present 15 members to between 25 and 30,” she writes. On a slight side note, she points to Japan as the country that will be leading the way in terms of sustainable growth.

BUT… She writes, “The enormous changes on the horizon will require major crises, even cataclysm, before they can materialize.” This is a bit unnerving, to say the least — unless, like Slaughter, you purport to be a “big-picture” thinker who believes that, while this kind of tragedy may negatively impact a great deal of people in the short term, it ultimately acts as the necessary catalyst to spur positive change. In other words, if you want to make an omelette…. While she has a point that such enormous events can force systematic improvements on a global scale, it is debatable as to how integral to the process they actually are. That aside, Slaughter’s examples of potential global crises are perhaps the three most likely to sprint to anyone’s mind: climate change, large-scale terrorist actions, and global pandemics.

Bottom Line: “Multilateralization” may become one of the buzzwords of the decade. (Best not to get too annoyed with it yet.) Also, as Slaughter points out, a great deal of global change (expected and unexpected) can occur in just 15 years.

Source: http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/08/15/problems_will_be_global_and_solutions_will_be_too?page=0,1