Predictions: Cities

Prediction: Traffic congestion will increase by more than 30% in 18 U.S. cities by 2030. The biggest increase (54%) will be in Raleigh, North Carolina.

Who: Harvard Center for Risk Analysis (HCRA) at the School of Public Health

Background: If no further improvements are made to transportation capacity and infrastructure, cities already plagued with traffic problems will see things get worse. Smaller cities like Raleigh, which anticipate population growth as retirement meccas, will likely experience more premature deaths due to increased pollution and traffic accidents.

Why Great: Models for studying the range of trends and impacts — from urban growth to regional migration to the replacement of gas guzzlers with clean hybrids — are becoming increasingly sophisticated, thus giving policy planners in public health and transportation a great chance to invest the necessary resources for improving the quality of transportation.

BUT… In a business-as-usual scenario, the researchers project that U.S. traffic woes will cost a total of 1,900 premature deaths and $17 billion in social costs.

Bottom Line: How you get from here to there makes up a big part of your daily planning. You can also make it a bigger part of your life planning, such as simply deciding to live within walking distance of your office (or even working from home). It could save not just a lot of time, but also your life.

Source: Harvard Center for Risk Analysis (HCRA) at the School of Public Health, cited by The American Road & Transportation Builders Association http://www.artba.org/article/new-study-estimates-for-first-time-the-public-health-costs-of-traffic-congestion-in-us/

Prediction: Biofuel-powered hypersonic jets will shuttle passengers from London to Tokyo (and vice-versa) in less than two and a half hours by 2050.

Who: Airbus parent company EADS.

Why Great: High-speed international air travel that doesn’t generate air pollution would constitute a major achievement. The ZEHST (Zero Emission Hypersonic Transportation) would travel over 3000 mph powered by a combination of hydrogen and oxygen derived from seaweed, emitting water vapor instead of carbon dioxide. Also, at cruising altitudes just above the atmosphere of the Earth, it’s almost like space travel.

BUT… Commercial flights won’t be available for 40 years. What’s more, it may not be commercially viable: The aircraft will only be able to handle 100 passengers at most, so tickets would be prohibitively expensive. (MSNBC reports that seats on the ZEHST “will likely cost in the neighborhood of $10,000 to $30,000, according to aerospace industry experts.”)

Bottom Line: This ambitious project literally aims for the stratosphere.

Source: http://www.npr.org/blogs/thetwo-way/2011/06/20/137300274/paris-air-show-a-passenger-jet-that-does-new-york-to-london-in-90-minutes

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-2005513/London-Tokyo-2-hours-Blueprints-3-000mph-hypersonic-plane-unveiled.html

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/43500622/ns/technology_and_science-innovation/

Prediction: 48 metropolitan areas in the United States will not return to pre-recession employment levels until 2020.

Who: The United States Conference of Mayors.

Why Not So Great: But wait — there’s more. Most U.S. metro economies “will suffer persistently high unemployment beyond 2011, many of which will continue with high rates into the middle and latter part of the decade,” the report claims. It pinpoints 198 cities that will still face over 6% unemployment by 2015.

BUT… According to the report, “the vast majority of employment gains the U.S. will experience in the coming years will be provided by metro economies,” adding, “by the close of 2014 over half of the metro areas will have returned to their previous peak employment level.” It’s not exactly a silver lining, but it’s something, anyway.

Bottom Line: The report highlights the need for both short- and long-term solutions from federal legislators. It also calls for them to earmark some of the money being spent on military actions abroad to improving domestic cities and creating jobs at home.

Source: http://www.usmayors.org/metroeconomies/2011/

Prediction: Dubai’s airport will be the busiest in the world, serving over 75 million passengers annually by 2015.

Who: Dubai Airports.

Why Great: “Increased liberalization, GDP growth, and increasingly affluent and mobile populations in emerging markets will combine to propel air travel growth worldwide,” according to Dubai Airports CEO Paul Griffiths.

BUT… Two words: carbon footprint. Air travel isn’t exactly the most environmentally friendly way to get around. The question is: Can the planet handle an increase in fossil fuel-guzzling, greenhouse gas-emitting international air travel?

Bottom Line: Dubai will continue to be a major point of connection between emerging and established national economies.

Source: http://www.dubaiairports.ae/en/media-centre/Pages/press-releases.aspx?id=28