The Futurist Interviews Nazrul Islam on Preparing Bangladesh for Climate Change

An upcoming article in the January-February 2011 issue of THE FUTURIST looks at Bangladesh’s efforts to better prepare its communities to weather the effects of climate change.

Bangladesh has a number of early-warning systems in place to alert villages of advancing cyclones and floods. Such storm patterns have gotten more severe due to climate change, so Bangladesh has been investing time and money into further boosting these systems’ capacities. It’s also more than doubling the number of Bangladesh Red Cross volunteers who serve as rapid-response units for villages hit by storms. Cyclone shelters exist around the country, but the demand for them is spiking of late, so construction is peaking. Also, there are ways by which the shelters’ design and usefulness could be improved.

What follows is an interview between FUTURIST magazine staff editor Rick Docksai and Nazrul Islam, global coordinator for the Bangladesh Environment Network (a nonprofit network of environmentalists).

THE FUTURIST: I’ve heard about new early-warning systems that Bangladesh has put in place to warn communities about advancing cyclones and floods. When did these first go into operation? How effective have they been since?

Nazrul Islam: These are early-warning systems that we have built up over time. That started in the wake of a cyclone in 1970. More than a million people were swept away. The number of people who died in the cyclone in 1970 was very large.

Since that time, the country has been gradually trying to better prepare itself for cyclones. In the 1980s and 1990s, Bangladesh built up an early warning system and there have been some considerable achievements, as is well evidenced by a more recent cyclone in 1991: a very severe cyclone, but the number of people who died was much less.

But it’s not at all complete. A lot of issues remain, like the challenge of getting more people to use shelters. Many people stay on in their houses and protect their cattle in the event of a flood or cyclone. In order for the shelters to be effective they need to have stations for bringing the cattle into them. The cattle are the only capital many poor people have. They are their only means of livelihood.

Bangladesh has made progress on the early warning system and the construction of shelters, which has proven to be effective reducing the number of people who would be killed.

THE FUTURIST: So the early-warning systems predate global discussions about climate change. But how might recent observations about the changing climate affect the systems’ future development and future course?

Nazrul Islam: Climate change was not a big issue then. But over time, one of the effects of climate change is the extent of extreme weather events. Storms and other weather patterns tend to be much larger and exhibit greater intensity. It makes these preparations all the more necessary and forces us to raise them to a much higher level, given what is likely to come.

That will require a lot more resources. And much more importantly, those resources have to be utilized much more efficiently. A lot of people have to be mobilized.

THE FUTURIST: What role might the construction of dikes and river embankments play in keeping people safer from floods and storms?

Nazrul Islam: For dikes, it’s a more complicated issue. Dikes started in the 1960s. We had a lot of money invested in a project to build embankments along the coastal areas. And the idea was to protect the coastal land from the saline water of the sea that would come during the high tides.

Once we can separate the land from the water, it would be possible to grow more crops. But a lot of projects have unintended consequences. It proved to be controversial because it destroyed the ecological balance. The ecosystem got severely disrupted.

Bangladesh is the largest active river delta in the world. There is nothing comparable to Bangladesh. The Ganges and the Brahmaputra are the two rivers that feed Bangladesh. And two billion tons of sediments are being dropped into Bangladesh a year by these rivers.

This sediment is a vital importance for Bangladesh because Bangladesh was created by the sediment. Geologists have shown that in previous ages the shoreline was built up out of the water. And by the way of Bangladesh's shifting shoreline—it’s shifting because of the sedimentation—the land elevation rises by couple of centimeters a year.

THE FUTURIST: Interesting. So it’s like a natural levee-building process that buffers Bangladesh against rising tides.

Nazrul Islam: Yes. In general, that sedimentation leads to a rise in elevation of the land. That’s how Bangladesh was created over millions and millions of years. That silt was deposited into the Bay of Bengal, and that's how Bangladesh was created.

Because of the process of sedimentation, in the last couple of decades we have gained several hundred square miles along the coast. And it’s all because of this natural process.

Unfortunately, it's now getting obstructed by other developments. All the major rivers originate in India, Nepal, and China, and they pass through India. India has been diverting a lot of water from the rivers. It’s been diverting water from the Ganges by constructing plants to divert the water for use in its own areas, for irrigation and other purposes. India is a large country and thinks it can divert the water to its thirsting areas.

THE FUTURIST: That water diversion must spell trouble for the natural sedimentation process, does it not?

Nazrul Islam: The rivers used to bring in about 2 billion tons of sediment a year. And those sediments are the survival of Bangladesh against sea level rise. Because Bangladesh is a low-lying country.

But India has diverted a lot of river flow of the Ganges. And now we depend 70% on the delta water flow of the other major river, called the Brahmaputra River. This river originates in China, then it travels across Tibet and takes a sharp turn south of Sichuan province, and then it takes a sharp southwest turn to the Indian state of Assam and it enters Bangladesh. What is alarming is India has plans to divert water from this river, also, and now China has plans to divert water from this river to divert growing amounts of water to feed construction.

THE FUTURIST: It sounds like between China and India, the Brahmaputra and Bangladesh along with it are in a tight spot.

Nazrul Islam: If these plans come through, and they can because both China and India have large industrial and technological capability, the survival of Bangladesh will be really at stake. No large-scale diversion of the Brahmaputra has yet taken place, so we still have sedimentation in that part. This shows what effect will take place if the Brahmaputra is diverted.

Bangladesh is a poor country and it doesn’t have much international standing. It can’t stand up to India and China, because they're so much more powerful. No one pays much attention to Bangladesh.

When India diverted the Ganges, it was a violation of ecological and human rights. By this diversion of water in the Ganges they have deeply harmed the ecology and economy of Bangladesh. But Bangladesh has few opportunities to address it. India does not allow Bangladesh to raise the issue in international forums. It does not even allow Bangladesh to bring in other countries to intermediate as third parties; it says it will negotiate with Bangladesh directly.

THE FUTURIST: With the river flow interrupted, I’d guess this means that as sea levels rise due to climate change, Bangladesh will be more vulnerable.

Nazrul Islam: The dikes will not be of much use. There is controversy among experts who say that when you construct the dikes you obstruct the process of spreading out the silt. It is very questionable whether these dikes have helped, and that’s apart from the issue that they obstruct the natural ecology of the areas. It affects the ecology and deprives the natural sustenance of river flow. Everything is affected.

With its early warning systems, at least Bangladesh has made progress now that climate change has become important and its impact has become very palpable. But much more needs to be done. Bangladesh will need much more support internationally and domestically.

Bangladesh also needs uninterrupted flow of the rivers to bring in the silt that helps Bangladesh confront the flow of the rising water. It has done so going back millions of year and it will do so in the future.

We cannot predict the amount of sea level rise. Some say it will be seven meters. We don’t know how much of that will come out. But the evidence is very alarming. Some of what people said would be happening twenty or thirty years down the line are happening now. We are witnessing an acceleration of the effects of climate change and we are witnessing a lot of the effects in our country in Bangladesh now: erosion, disruption of the weather patterns. It’s important that the rivers that flow into Bangladesh be allowed to flow uninterrupted.

And consider that Bangladesh has 125 million people, and that the population could soon reach 200 million people. If sea levels rise, you could be submerging 60 million people. Where will all these people go? They will go to all sides of India. To America? It is not possible. India will have to face the pressure. It is in India’s interests to let this river flow. Bangladesh is only asking for what has been true for ages, for what is natural.

I think you as the international press can do a lot highlighting the issue. Our government is afraid, since India is very powerful. Bangladesh is in a fix. So we as a civic organization have been trying to raise our voice. We want to tell the truth and we want the international community to be aware of this situation here. This is a very dangerous situation, a matter of 60 or 70 million people getting submerged.

THE FUTURIST: When did India start diverting the river waters?

Nazrul Islam: India started commissioned the diversion of the Ganges in 1974. Since then, our southern part has been going through a process of desertification. We have hundreds of rivers that are drying up.

Now with climate change, there are more droughts. And rivers that were once full of water will become drier.

Once a river’s water flow gets below an extreme point, all the aquatic life dies. You cannot revive them again. It no longer can sustain the ecology of the flora and fauna that was in the system. So the next time you have more water, you no longer have more water life. For all the fishermen and all the people on the river who are an important part of Bangladesh's economy, it's a serious matter.

THE FUTURIST: India’s diversion of the Brahmaputra is upcoming. When will it most likely take place?

Nazrul Islam: We don’t know. India has not released the plans. But now India is in trouble, too, because China announced plans to divert water from the Brahmaputra. India has been asking China not to divert the water.

THE FUTURIST: What can India do now to help?

Nazrul Islam: India should decommission the dams that it has already constructed and should not pursue new dams. It should restore the natural previous flow of the rivers.

If Bangladesh does well amid climate change, it's better for India. Our position is let it be free, let it flow as it used to flow for ages. Bangladesh has the same message for India and China, and we think it's the message that is beneficial for all.