Food in the future – Cleaner, cheaper and healthier

Some very exciting developments are underway in the realm of hydroponic agriculture, i.e. the growing of crops in fertilized water without the use of soil. Grown in ultra clean, climate regulated environments inside warehouses or skyscrapers, crops could be spared both natural contamination (insects, infections etc) and pesticides, to make them entirely clean, even more so than organic crops. Plants could be easily monitored for defects inside 30 story greenhouses that recycle all their air and water.

It would also be possible to genetically enhance fruits, vegetables and even meat to have higher nutritional values with, for instance, less fat and more protein, by changing the DNA makeup.

The surest way to bring down the price of any product is to make a lot more of it. This is true of food as well. In the near future we’ll see several technological breakthroughs that could each dramatically increase productivity in the agricultural sector to bring down prices. Gene modification, for instance, will allow us to design crops that grow faster and larger than ordinary crops.  

If we grow crops hydroponically in large scale factories, not only would we see economies of scale bring the price down, but also an immense productivity gain from conventional farming (which are unable to produce year-round).

Another important step in lowering the price of food is removing trade barriers and farming subsidies in the industrialized world. Millions of farmers in the third world are excluded from world markets, and their efforts to sell their low-priced commodities are stifled by protectionist measures to keep western farmers on life support. This is perhaps the single largest obstacle to poverty reduction today, but also a relatively simple one to surmount if efforts can be concerted.

Growing the meat, sparing the animals.

In vitro meat, in vitro fish, in vitro fowl. Science is all over it, and predictors say it will eventually sell for half the price of the real animal product. In vitro meat will taste and feel entirely genuine, and farms that raise, for instance, live stock will find profitability an elusive dream in competition with modern skyfarms.

Many will no doubt be hesitant to eat artificial meat, but these should come around once they learn that IVM is 100% muscle, and that it contains no hormones, salmonella, e.coli, or antibiotics. It’s also boneless. So that’s healthier and ethically palatable meat.

In the same way as crops, in vitro meat can be grown in urban multistory greenhouses. 20 years from now, I see urban dwellers buying fresh meat, fruits and vegetables from their neighborhood farmscraper, all devoid of infections, saturated fat and chemicals.

Rocky road to Food Heaven

JFK said that “Progress is a nice word, but change is its motivator. And change has its enemies.” I’ve just mentioned a few of the tremendously effective tools we’ll have at our disposition to improve all aspects of food, from its price to its quality. But it’s not as if everyone’s equally enchanted by these newfound tools or the transformations they promise.

In particular, gene modification technologies have met with fierce opposition in recent years. There’s certainly reason for precautions in altering genetic code, but the panic has proven greatly exaggerated. There are unquestionably safe methods to genetically enhance food. Legal and political hurdles will decelerate progress, but we owe it to every starving human to overcome them. And while we should no doubt be careful in commercializing this new technology, we should be extra careful in considering the risk of not releasing it at all.

Stop fearing a Malthusian problem, economics has solved it.

Don’t worry: Even with a world population of 9 billion in 2050, we’ll be able to feed everyone. In any case world hunger is likely to be extinguished well before that time as a consequence of a) technological progress and productivity gains and b) falling birth rates.