Don’t Write Off Russian Democracy Just Yet

Vladimir Putin’s September 24 announcement of a comeback bid for the Russian presidency next year dismayed advocates of democracy within U.S. and European media. But it also galvanized pro-democracy activists within Russia.

Grigory Yavlinsky, leader of the Russian opposition party Yabloko, thinks that the prospects for change are better, not worse, thanks to Putin’s announced return. He told Brian Whitmore, a Radio Free Europe blogger, that the numbers of people volunteering to work with Yabloko have risen “sharply” following Putin’s announcement.

“People now see that if there isn't a change things will be just like they are now for another 25 years. People want the situation to change,” Yavlinsky said.

And as RussiaProfile.org observed, the Russian blogosphere lit up with young voices seething over the prospect of a Putin redux. Countless contributors exclaimed “Let’s get out of here!” Others expressed hope that Russia’s disenchanted youth would rise up and fight. Dmitry Gudkov, the leader of the Young Socialists of Russia, was one of the latter. On his blog, Echo of Moscow, he wrote that Putin’s return might breathe new life into the “Russia Without Putin” movement, which now has only fringe movement status.

“Now this can become a real idea for the opposition,” he typed.

Putin was Russia’s president for two terms, from 2000 until 2008. Over those eight years, he steered Russia decisively toward top-down authoritarianism, suppression of dissent, and allocation of state monies toward the military and petroleum industries at the expense of just about everything else.

The presidential elections will be in March 2012, but with Putin’s announcement, the outcome is already a near-certainty: He will win, fairly or unfairly, with honest votes or with rigged ones. His career-long mastery of the machinations of state, combined with the use of media to foment a rock-star-like cult of personality among voters, guarantee as much. And once elected, he is free to run for two more terms and thus occupy the Kremlin for no fewer than 12 years.

Few Russians expect any of their elections to be honest, no matter who is running. Duma (Russia’s parliament) elections are coming up on December 4, and according to a Levada Center survey, less than half of Russian voters believe that they will be free or fair.

But democracy may yet win the day. Consider: Endemic corruption, lack of freedom, and conviction that the system is rigged against the people… these are the very conditions that bred populist revolutions in Liberia, Egypt, and Tunisia. It might not be too long before Russians, in turn, reclaim their country for true democracy. If an Arab Spring comes, can Russian Spring be far behind?