The Arab Spring and the Technology Revolution

The popular revolts erupting in Iran, Tunisia, Egypt, Jordan, Libya, Syria, Yemen, and other Arabic nations surprised us, but they are another reminder that bold change is always a shock. Think of the similar changes that also shocked us when the USSR imploded, when women gained power, when the environment turned sacred, when blacks became accepted, and gays were liberated.

Big changes are always shocking precisely because they are big changes. They shatter our steadfast belief in the status quo. They are disorienting and confusing. They seem unimaginable before they actually arrive.

TechCast is dedicated to the proposition that it is possible to anticipate change in broad terms. Powerful conceptual frameworks can explain how change is likely, and the Technology Revolution is one of those powerful frameworks. Just as Poland and the other Soviet satellites were electrified by fax machines spreading the news that the West enjoyed a better life without Communism, so too did Facebook and Twitter do the same in the Middle East.

The Arab Spring is the latest manifestation of the liberating impact of Information Technology (IT) – and more big change is likely. This raises provocative questions as to what comes next? We don’t hope to get specific changes right, of course, but TechCast offers the unusual advantage of pooling knowledge across the technological spectrum to macro-forecast big changes. This allowed us to define the Global MegaCrisis and its likely resolution in another decade or so.

We think it is likely that similar changes could surprise us in the next few years. Could China go the way of Egypt? After all, thousands of riots have been taking place for years now, and many astute observers think it is only a matter of time before that dictatorial regime implodes, about the way the Soviet Union did.

Another shocking possibility is that serious change could come to American Capitalism. Despite the recent victory over Osama Bin Laden, the US is spiraling into decline. Wall Street’s near collapse in 2008 was a massive market failure that almost brought down the global economy and it created a political watershed that trapped American politics in ideological gridlock. Democrats have produced a massive government bureaucracy that is antithetical to today’s imperative of coping with an onslaught of turbulent complexity, while Republicans are so intent on lower taxes and less government that they want to cut programs for the poor and middle class while giving more money to the rich, who already own the lion’s share of wealth. Nobel economist George Stiglitz thinks “The financial collapse of 2008 may be to markets [Capitalism] what the Berlin Wall was to Communism.”

Could we witness some type of radical change in the two institutions responsible for this mess – big government and big business? An elegant solution is possible in which corporations finally own up to the need to serve the interests of their employees, customers, local communities, and other stakeholders in addition to making money. This “democratization” of business could release government from much of its tax and regulatory burden; replace the bulk of social programs; improve business performance as well as the public welfare; and help stabilize the economy.

Trends have been moving in this direction for decades, but the logical outcome is too shocking for most people to accept – like the Arab Spring and the other big changes noted above. Arthur C. Clarke called this a “failure of nerve.” The facts are fairly clear but people are afraid to accept the logical outcome.

Yes, it seems as unimaginable as the collapse of Communism once did. But as the liberating force of IT continues to exert its historic impact, this underlying dynamic could produce more big change that surprises us once again.
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William E. Halal is professor emeritus at George Washington University and president of TechCast. He served on the World Future Society board for many years and now serves on the Global Advisory Council.