25 reasons why foresight is broken - and how we can do better

After more than a year of writing, editing, and design, I am proud to announce the publication of my latest book entitled How to Predict the Future...and WIN!!!

The book is a study of the twenty-five ways we are most likely to fail when we try to see what's next - and what we can do today to make truly future-focused organizations.

For you futurist-types here at WFS, here's the inside scoop: After the absurdly predictable financial crisis of 2008, I became incensed when everybody in charge said, "NOBODY COULD SEE IT COMING!!!" followed immediately by, "and of course, since this is a crisis, nobody has time to think about the future." And then, all the same pundits and experts and future-y keynote guys went right back to their business like nothing happened.

For me, it was time to expose all the weaknesses of what passes for foresight in our modern business culture, so we can get to the good stuff - the REAL foresight that time after time produces value for leaders. So my new book is part satire and part in-depth analysis of how bureaucracies avoid critical discussions about their future - and how we can overcome this tendency.

In the book, we are guided by WORLD FAMOUS FUTUROLOGICAL PREDICTOLOGIST Dr. P. Hughes Egon. I ASSURE you he is an entirely fictional character created SOLELY for the point of dramatic re-enactment.

Dr. Egon, star of gigantic conferences and frequent dinner party companion of name-droppable luminaries, takes time out of his busy schedule to show us 25 "sure-fire" ways to "predict the future and WIN!!!" (while in reality, these are traps to avoid in almost all bureacracies):

1. Listen to major media exclusively
2. Put internal politics above external data
3. Underestimate new competition and fringe players
4. Plan based on a single scenario
5. Let fake numbers trump real insights
6. Focus uniquely on positive information; punish those who are negative
7. Ridicule, ridicule, ridicule!
8. Value the probability of forecasts by the charisma of the person delivering them
9. Compare the current moment to the 1980s
10. Wait for complete information before concluding, deciding and acting
11. Rely on technology and business, ignore culture, society, philosophy
12. Say you’re looking out 20 years but study today instead
13. Take all of your sources from one country, preferably your own
14. Don’t waste time thinking about individuals or small groups
15. Take it personally! Make sure your ego is the star of all visions of the future
16. Never make comparisons to history! Those jerks didn’t even have computers!
17. Don’t invite young people, poor people, artists, or any diverse opinions to the table
18. Start with the conclusions in mind, and push all information toward them
19. Keep the findings of the study secret - don’t try to make the findings available throughout the organization
20. Assume that future generations will share your values, biases, superstitions, and desires
21. Confuse sexy with important
22. Never suggest the whole model may be changing
23. Communicate the future in the most abstract, jargony, ignorable language
24. Take it personally when your colleagues don’t immediately believe your view of the future
25. Make sure this kind of analysis is a once every decade event

If you are interested, get a taste of Dr. Egon's brilliance for free below. You'll laugh, you'll cry, you'll recognize why futurists aren't often made CEO, and hopefully you'll see that foresight isn't the problem itself, but that we need to understand the realities of bureaucracy before diving into any more million-page trend reports.