Commerce

The postmodernization of global economics started in earnest forty years ago when Richard Nixon announced the end of the gold standard, nominally to protect American economic interests. It behooves us to go back and listen to the man's statements regarding the decision.

During the past 10 days or so, the US and global financial markets have taken a deep plunge, as a result of, well, according to the CIOs (chief investment officers) and politicians, "we don’t know."

Take a look at the CBOE Volatility Index – otherwise known as the VIX. This literally exploded upwards by 50% yesterday, from 32 to 48. In theory, if a person put 1/10th of their portfolio into the VIX index in 2008 and sold at the peak, they could have made a net profit even if they had invested other 9/10 of the portfolio in stocks.

As a futurist, I always prefer the long view. But I’m often asked, what are the practical applications of futuring and foresight practice in navigating day to day life, making the sort of fast but high impact decisions that people are often called upon to make?

I got the graphic below from the punk-rock financial analysts of ZeroHedge, a comparison of the mindset about insolvent Greece to the Kubler-Ross stages of grief in dealing with any death: Denial, Anger, Bargain

Two hundred years ago, the most stable jobs involved the needs of a community and the work of a skilled craftsman to meet those needs. People holding jobs such as cobblers, blacksmiths, chandlers, and butchers found themselves in high demand. But those jobs hold very little relevance in today’s world. So is there such a thing as a “forever” job.

One of my favorite parts about the tech revolution is the sheer amount of data that we, as end users, generate. I’m thrilled when companies or organizations use data, voluntarily offered by their users, to write impromptu market research reports. It’s even more exciting when market research isn’t their core competency.

Last week, my roommate bought a Kindle. Since then, he hasn’t stopped talking about it. Mainly, he’s wanted to get me to borrow it to read Henry Hazlitt‘s book Economics in One Lesson. The book, published in 1946, is an introduction to free market economics, and is a seminal text on economic principles. Tax season being upon us, I filed my taxes last night. Afterwards, I started reading Hazlitt’s book. His “one lesson” seemed pointedly relevant to this time of year.

A regional business newspaper, the Valley Business Report, is sponsoring a Foresight Workshop for business people in May in Mission, Texas. This will be about futures/foresight methods and how to apply those methods in business, particularly in small business. This is a four-hour workshop, which allows business people to attend in the morning and be back in their offices in the afternoon.
The format that I’m planning is a personal futures approach, then a discussion of how each tool or method can be applied in a small business. As a result, I’m working on a supplemental workbook for small business.