In This Issue:
* Economic Rebound Forecast for 2010
* Long-Term Benefits of Recession-Proofing Strategies
* Alaska Youth Success Stories
* Antarctica’s Accelerated Warming
* Click of the Month: TeacherTube
* News for the Futurist Communi
The members of the National Association for Business Economics (NABE) see a sharp decline in economic activity throughout the first quarter of this year with continued contraction in the United States through second quarter and a virtually flat third and fourth quarter. The result will be a net decline of 0.9% in GDP for 2009, according to the February Outlook survey.
"The good news is that economic activity is expected to turn up in the second half of the year and 2010 is expected to see modestly above-trend growth of 3.1%” according NABE President Chris Varvares, president of group Macroeconomic Advisers and a member of the NABE. The NABE Outlook survey presents the consensus of macroeconomic forecasts from a panel of 47 professional economic forecasters.
Among the key forecasts of the February 2009 survey:
• The current downturn will most resemble that of 1973-75.
• Real government spending will advance 2.8% in 2009.
• The consumer price index will decline 0.8% in 2009, as already large commodity price declines pass through to consumer prices.
• The jobless rate will peak at 9.0% by the end of the year. House prices will decline 5% during 2009, though the S&P 500 index is expected to rise a solid 8% by December 31, 2009.
SOURCE: National
Association for Business Economics
With more businesses and individual workers seeking ways to “recession-proof” themselves, could the economy emerge from hard times stronger and more innovative than ever?
Recession-proofing workers might focus on becoming more fearless and innovative. Take your ideas to the boss rather than allow uncertainties to back you into your cubicle, urges Robin Fisher Roffer, author of THE FEARLESS FISH OUT OF WATER (Wiley, 2009). “It may seem scary to make such a bold move in tenuous times,” she says, “but leaders will appreciate any innovation that will get business moving right now.”
Businesses, too, are encouraged to be fearlessly proactive rather than cautious and reactive. Hard times are the time for action, suggests consultant Suzanne Caplan, because inaction “spawns a pattern of victimization, and pins us down into a habit of only reacting to the bad, instead of planning for the better.”
SOURCES: Robin Fisher Roffer, author of FEARLESS FISH OUT OF WATER
Suzanne Caplan, founder and chief blogger, www.womenetcetera.com
Why do some teenagers make successful transitions into young adulthood (avoiding substance abuse, suicide, and other problems), while others do not? A research project following the lives of Inuit youths in Alaska will help answer this vital question.
Spearheaded by health educator Lisa Wexler of the University of Massachusetts, Amherst, the research will survey 120 young-adult Inuit who have avoided these problems and successfully created balance in their lives between modern and traditional cultures.
By focusing on the young people’s resilience, and not just on risk factors, the study aims to identify and nurture strengths among youth of all different cultures.
SOURCE: University of Massachusetts, Amherst
University
of Massachusetts, Amherst
Long thought to be cooling while the rest of the globe warms, Antarctica may be warming at comparable rates, according to new research by Eric Steig, a University of Washington professor of earth and space sciences.
The vast East Antarctica has indeed been cooling, but new satellite data shows that West Antarctica, with its large ice sheet, has been warming over the past 50 years to levels that offset the east’s cooling.
Steig notes that the continent is extremely complex and that rates of cooling and warming vary everywhere, but “the evidence shows the continent as a whole is getting warmer.” One of the side effects of repairing the hole in the ozone layer over the Antarctica is that all of Antarctica could begin warming at the same rate as the rest of the world.
SOURCE:
University of Washington
Helpful and inspiring multimedia resources for K-12 teachers are just a click away. TeacherTube offers samples of student projects as well as master-instructor tutorials on any subject in the curriculum.
One noteworthy channel focusing on classroom inspiration is The Futures Channel, featuring well-known teachers like Jaime Escalante and Kay Toliver. Searching videos with key words like “futures” and “scenarios” yields such interesting resources as interviews with global educators on “what will school look like in 15-20 years time” and a series exploring the future of various careers.
Membership is free and open to anyone over age 18 but geared toward teachers. Members may upload their own videos, participate in discussion forums, create playlists, and get tips on integrating multimedia into classroom projects.
OUTLOOK 2009
More sex, fewer antidepressants. More religious influence in China, less religious influence in the Middle East and the United States. More truth and transparency online, but a totally recorded real life.
These are just a few of the forecasts in the latest edition of the World Future Society’s annual Outlook report. Order your own copy, or buy several to distribute to your colleagues, clients, students, and friends!
ORDER PDF or print copies:
READ the Top 10 Forecasts:
WATCH video preview:
NEWS FOR THE FUTURIST COMMUNITY
* WORLD FUTURE REVIEW’S FIRST ISSUE! Pardon our bias, but the biggest news for the futurist community right now is the publication of the first issue of WORLD FUTURE REVIEW, the Society’s professional “Journal of Strategic Foresight.” This exciting first issue features an interview with 2009 conference keynote speaker Don Tapscott and a review of his latest book, GROWN UP DIGITAL.
As the successor of two of the Society’s esteemed journals, FUTURES RESEARCH QUARTERLY and FUTURE SURVEY, WFR offers an array of original and insightful papers. In the first issue are “Towards a Future of Global Science” by Elisabet Sahtouris, “Ensuring Strategic Direction” by Robert E. Neilson, “Ethnography in Robotics” by Gerardo del Cerro Santamaria, and “The Future Evolution of the Ecology of Mind” by Tom Lombardo. In addition, WFR has enlisted a stable of excellent futurist writers to provide abstracts of the latest significant future-oriented writing, covering books, articles, blogs, and other original sources.
WFR is included in Professional Membership of the World Future Society, but for a limited time only, nonmembers may order this first edition for just $25. ORDER or LEARN MORE.
SUBMISSIONS to WFR should be addressed to Tim Mack, mailto:tmack@wfs.org
* FUTURES STUDIES ON PERSIAN BBC: Futurist Vahid V. Motlagh was recently interviewed on BBC Persian Television, offering Persian speakers in Iran and its neighbors a concise overview of the principles and goals of futures studies. His message was that studying the future helps inspire us to look to tomorrow with more hope and creativity. http://www.vahidthinktank.com/
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!! WHAT’S HOT @WFS.ORG !!
* If the economic downturn has you down, read what FINANCIAL TIMES columnist Martin Wolf has to say on what we need to do to turn things around. Read THE FUTURIST’s exclusive interview with Wolf “Repairing the World Financial System,”
* Learning the principles of foresight and the skills of futuring will help you keep a steady hand on the forces altering our world. Sign up for a free 10-part e-mail course, “Fundamentals of Foresight,” from WFS president Tim Mack. ENROLL now:
* Deadline for high-school-student essay contest submissions is March 31! What are the challenges you see before you as you look beyond high school? How do you expect to meet those challenges as you think about college and the future workplace? The World Future Society is seeking essays on how you are using futuring skills to take charge of your future. First-prize winner will receive a three-year membership in the World Future Society and free admission to WorldFuture 2009, the Society’s annual meeting, to be held in Chicago July 17-19. DETAILS: