In the January 2009 issue of Futurist Update, the World Future Society’s free e-newsletter, we invited readers to submit their ideas of “wild cards” that futurists need to be looking at critically right now. This section showcases a few of the responses.
What is a wild card? According to FUTURIST editor Edward Cornish, author of Futuring: The Exploration of the Future, a wild card is “an unexpected event that would have enormous consequences if it actually occurred.”
Many wild cards are disasters, such as an asteroid striking the Earth. However, a wild card might be highly beneficial, such as a revolutionary technology that leaves zero carbon dioxide, or a surge of peaceful co-existence among long-standing enemies.
The “advantage” of disaster scenarios, in terms of futurists, is that they give clear and urgent reasons for thinking ahead, whereas the possibility of a pleasant surprise does not normally inspire a need for planning. Some obvious exceptions to that complacency are when we unexpectedly receive a marriage proposal or a job offer, or learn of a new baby on the way—all of which require a great deal of futuring skills.
As you examine the following wild-card scenarios, think about the trends that may lead up to these surprise events, what might be done to prevent them (or promote them, in the case of beneficial wild cards), and how you, your family, business, and community might prepare for a world that has suddenly become quite different.
And if you can think of other wild-card scenarios, feel free to share them with us. —Cynthia G. Wagner
Cynthia G. Wagner is managing editor of THE FUTURIST. E-mail cwagner@wfs.org.
For more on wild cards and other tools of foresight, see Futuring: The Exploration of the Future by Edward Cornish (WFS, 2004), which may be ordered at www.wfs.org/futuring.htm.
By John L. Petersen
A few of the wild card scenarios I examined 10 years ago for my 1999 book, Out of the Blue, no longer appear so wild: a stock-market crash, ice cap breaks up, virtual reality moves information instead of people, terrorism swamps government defenses. Other scenarios have not been realized but remain highly plausible possibilities: a major information systems disruption, a new Chernobyl, achievement of room-temperature superconductivity, and the politico-economic unraveling of Africa.
Now, a decade later, our society has grown even more complex and the possible new scenarios are even a bit more profound. Because they are so potentially big, the approaches for dealing with surprises need to be ever more agile, yet often they are not. To accept the idea that surprises are simply surprises and cannot be dealt with in advance, however, is to presume that we can’t make a difference—which is not the truth. We, and the future, deserve better.
Here are a few wild cards that could be on our horizon.
Spiritual Paradigm Shift Sweeps the World
Growing numbers of groups dedicated to a fundamental shift in the way humans perceive themselves are popping up around the planet. Most characterize themselves around the ideas of cooperation, interdependency, and oneness. Individuals and groups empowered primarily by the Internet are rapidly developing networks, driving a movement within the business, government, and education sectors that reflects this growing complexity of connections and dependency.
The wild card is the possibility that this changing perception could accelerate forward, facilitated by a still-under-the-radar spiritual movement that mirrors the trends in other sectors but is growing much faster and is potentially much more powerful. In addition to a number of other organizations that embrace the same underlying principles, an organization in India, Oneness University, is emblematic of this possibility. Oneness—as defined in this context—is the internalization of the perspective that all life is not only connected to, but an integral part of, the whole of reality. Everything is part of everything else, and in particular, every person is part of everyone else.
Science Is Wrong—It’s Rapid Cooling
The conventional wisdom within the scientific community suggests that the earth is warming rapidly and humans are a major cause of the warming. Climate models project only warmer temperatures. But a look into the basis for the underlying theory now suggests that, historically, warming did not follow increases in carbon dioxide; rather, it may well be that a warming earth released more CO2. The explanation may be that warming seawater can keep a smaller amount of CO2 in solution and, as the oceans warm, more CO2 is released.
Furthermore, new research suggests that the major terrestrial driver of global climate patterns may be wind over the oceans. Small changes in wind patterns produce highly leveraged impacts in the way the atmospheric system reacts. A significant increase in terrestrial volcanoes (and perhaps undersea ones) in the last decade could be changing the temperature distribution of the oceans and hence the winds. These planetary shifts, coupled with clear, unusual solar behavior (all of the planets near us are warming) and the solar system entering a galactic area of unfamiliar energetic, raise the possibility that all of our unusual weather is the product of much larger forces than the scientific community is considering.
The wild card is the distinct possibility that this cycle presages a period of rapid cooling, producing a rapid, mini ice age starting in the next few years. This would raise havoc with agriculture and economies and certainly spill over into social disruption.
New Energy Discovery Comparable to the Control of Fire
The existence of Zero Point Energy (ZPE)—the theoretical underlying energy field out of which emerges everything that exists—has been demonstrated with the experimental measurement of the long-range repulsive forces of the Casimir Effect, according to a recent article in the science journal Nature (January 2009). Long presumed to exist by a small, forward-looking segment of the quantum physics community, this experiment sets the stage for a revolution in energy that will rival the discovery of fire.
When ZPE conversion technology is engineered to be able to produce usable amounts of heat or electricity, then the whole world changes, rapidly. Since every human endeavor depends upon energy in some way, and the pressure to find alternatives to fossil fuels is very great, the disruption could be extraordinary. Researchers would race to build increasingly effective ways of generating and applying electricity to existing requirements in the areas of transportation, large and small-scale power generation, interior heating, etc. Meanwhile, existing fossil fuel power plants, for example, tethered to long-term bond financing obligations and political constraints, could find it very hard to quickly adapt to a dramatic new production capability.
Cloned Humans Threaten Everything
The fight over stem-cell research has been instructive. New scientific capabilities run directly into the brick wall of existing ethical, legal, and value systems. Breakthrough approaches to saving the lives of individuals thought to be without hope are held up because of perceived ethical issues (which are the product of a past that didn’t include the new possibility). In a short time it is shown that stem cells can be made out of small amounts of fingernails—not the earlier embryos—and suddenly, the original ethical issue yields to new issues about the appropriate use of these new stem cells.
Now consider the area of cloning. We have cloned horses, sheep, dogs, cats, and perhaps a number of other forms of advanced life, and some researchers are working on human cloning. When it is first publicly acknowledged that a human has been cloned, picture the outcry that will arise from traditional groups who are unable to assimilate this new ability into their value systems. Science will not stop, and social systems will be very slow to adapt. The result: dramatic conflict and self-searching.
Intelligent Alien Life Confirmed
In this scenario, the Obama administration manifests a policy of openness in government by making the historic decision to declassify and release information on 40 years of reports dealing with alien species who have visited this planet and interacted with humans.
The reports satisfy most scientists that alien beings have in fact visited the Earth, so big questions must be addressed: How did the aliens get here, and what might we learn about the energy technology that allowed them to travel these distances? What have they told us about their understanding of things like God and where we came from? What else is going on in our solar system that they know about, let alone our galaxy? The list is very long, and such questions are very disconcerting to many established institutions (like religions) who find the information at great odds to what they have been promoting. Science funding rapidly swings into new directions.
This wild card would force humanity to redefine itself in dramatic new terms and to enter a new era unparalleled in human history.
About the Author
John L. Petersen is the founder and president of The Arlington Institute and a member of the World Future Society’s Global Advisory Council. He is author of Out of the Blue: How to Anticipate Big Future Surprises (Madison Books, 1999) and A Vision for 2012: Planning for Extraordinary Change (Fulcrum Publishing, 2008), which was reviewed in the November-December 2008 issue of THE FUTURIST. His address is The Arlington Institute, 192 Fairfax Street, Berkeley Springs, West Virginia 25411. Web site www.arlingtoninstitute.org .
By John Rockefeller
The term “food security” is still an abstraction for many of us living in modern market economies. In these countries, consumers’ food costs have been driven down by efficient, centralized production and distribution. An ever smaller group of producers and distributors consolidates our nourishment into market shares, and our food must travel great distances to reach our tables.
Driving costs down and profits up is well and good, but not when we fail to attend to the safety or sustainability of local supplies. We need to consider the consequences of an interruption in the global food supply chain. Since our sources of food are primarily a shrinking number of centralized and distant corporations, rather than numerous and widely distributed suppliers, our food-supply system is inherently fragile. A single failure would engender a large market interruption. Add political and financial uncertainty into this mix, and the risk increases exponentially.
How are we to mitigate the devastating potential effects of this wild-card scenario? Are all countries holding emergency food stores, so that they could respond quickly and restore order to food supplies? Not by my calculations. What do we actually know about contingency plans for a possible food system collapse within our own countries? If plans exist for a system collapse, what are they, and (perhaps more importantly) who is managing them?
A single failure in our food production and distribution chains could eliminate a large percentage of our available foods, while driving costs up on the remaining food source options. In this situation, the attraction of reduced consumers’ costs in the short run has set up as much of a risk as did subprime mortgages. Unlike losing a home, however, where we have alternative supplies locally (renting a temporary apartment, staying with friends or family), losing a singular, centralized food supply with no alternative sources available locally would mean widespread hunger and hardship. Therefore, I see an urgent need to bolster local food sources.
As we learned from the economic collapse of 2008, risk management was a game being played with a stacked deck by profit-seeking entities, without regard to economic realities. To avoid a similar outcome in the food sector, we need full and accurate information on the consolidation, vertical integration, and contingency plans for producing and distributing food to consumers in the event of a disruption. This is a global imperative.
The question that must be asked when entrusting survival to a small group of profit-based mechanisms is, What happens if profit disappears? Are there structures and fail-safes in place that will provide safety in times of crisis? What are the contingency plans for supplying food in the event of economic and political crises?
National security is certainly premised as much on a solid food system as on the availability of high-grade tactical weaponry, yet we exert little effective influence on its sustainability or management. Until we truly consider sustainable and secure practices to ensure that our food does not go down the same road as our failed financial sector, we are powerless to ensure its safe arrival at our tables in the years to come.
About the Author
John Rockefeller is CEO of Zero Consult Ltd., a strategy and forecasting group based in Boston and Portland. Previously, he served as former managing director of The International Federation of Institutes for Advanced Study (IFIAS) based in Stockholm and Toronto, head of international affairs at The Copenhagen Institute in Denmark, and executive director of the Regional Cancer Foundation of San Francisco.
By Brian Pomeroy
In response to the query about potential "wild card" future events, I have mulled a few over and have come up with the usual grim list (pandemics, terror attacks, natural disasters, oil prices, wars, etc.). Because they've been considered before, they're not really true wild cards, but here are a few that truly stand out in my mind:
• A catastrophic weather event rivaling or surpassing Hurricane Katrina. In addition to the widespread death, destruction, and disruption that such an event would cause, it would refocus attention on climate change, perhaps enabling even more assertive steps to combat global warming.
• A dramatic political shift to the far left. Since the 2008 U.S. presidential election, pundits have been debating whether the United States is shifting leftward or remaining a "center-right" nation. With the economic climate remaining sour, combined with the new priorities of the Obama administration, many conservative policies are being tossed overboard at a stunningly rapid rate. The riots in Europe in late 2008 illustrate how economic and political unrest is going global. If the worldwide economy remains weak, we may see a leftward shift in global politics so dramatic that socialism or even communism becomes attractive (especially to a generation too young to remember the Soviet Union and the Cold War).
Of course, a massive shift to the right is possible as well, especially if Obama and liberal policies are perceived as having failed to arrest the current economic crisis.
• Political upheaval in China. The weakening economy may cause the political system in China to buckle, ushering in upheaval and chaos that could further destabilize the global economy. Likewise, falling energy prices could cause flashpoints in Russia and the Middle East that would demand U.S. intervention, including military options.
• A worldwide backlash against fundamentalist religions. Not that this would be an anti-religious movement, but believers will choose spiritual paths that would better reconcile faith with science and reason. A backlash would also signal a rejection of terror, repression and the other hallmarks of extreme religious and political movements.
• Widespread illness and death from tainted food (either accidental or deliberate). Health concerns over pet foods, produce, and peanut butter may only be a preview of coming threats to the global food supply. With so much food produced in centralized facilities and with lax oversight, pandemic-level sickness and death from food poisoning is always a risk. Such a disaster would force a top-to-bottom review of the food supply chain, revolutionize our dietary habits (reorienting us toward vegetarianism or home-grown produce), or even cause mass starvation in areas where food is scarce. [Ed. note: See also “The Disappearance of Food: The Next Global Wild Card?” by John Rockefeller.]
• A surprisingly rapid economic recovery. The experts tell us that the United States may be mired in recession for many months, perhaps years. However, the economy could reignite more rapidly than forecast, due to government stimulus, market forces, or some unforeseen event. While surely a positive development, this wild card invites speculation over the recovery’s political impacts and the potential loss of the recession’s silver-lining benefits, such as greater social awareness and sustainable living.
• The disabling of the Internet. This could happen either for technical reasons (a virus that crashes virtually every node on the network) or by human intervention (a powerful individual or group effectively shutting it down). In our increasingly wired society, losing the Internet would be catastrophic on many levels—from the economic and social to the individual and psychological. More likely might be a subtle but widespread rejection of Internet use by those who feel it has become too intrusive in their daily lives.
• A disruptive new business model on the scale of the Web when it emerged in the mid-1990s. Such a model may or may not be technology-driven, but it would generate an economic boom as well as upheaval as it challenged and destroyed established industries, reweaving the fabric of our daily lives.
• The incapacitation of President Obama, through scandal, illness, or assassination. This is by far the most frightening wild card, because Americans (and much of the rest of the world) have hung so much hope on one man at a critical time. A scandal would disillusion a generation of voters, who might never become politically active again. An assassination would tear the nation apart, causing an eruption of grief and anger that would dwarf anything we have ever experienced.
About the Author
Brian Pomeroy is senior solutions consultant, Web Center–Information Systems, at the Children's Hospital of Philadelphia, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. E-mail pomeroy@email.chop.edu .
By Marc Blasband
We are now in the midst of a financial and economic crisis. It may be a temporary adjustment, and all will be back to normal in a few years, or we may soon see a collapse of the whole system, akin to the implosion of the Soviet Union in the 1990s. The possibility of implosion is a wild card that needs investigating, because its probability of occurring is far from zero.
The futurist community should explore this wild card, as there are no current examples that can be followed. The communist model is discredited by its own collapse. Futurists should analyze the causes of the current situation, evaluate the actions being taken, and propose new approaches. So far, all the futurist visions that I have seen are extrapolations of the existing situation; none describe a rupture with the past.
The current crisis may be a sign either that continuous growth is not endlessly possible or that an economy based on consumption is not viable anymore. It is clear that the market economy did not function as hoped. We must now determine whether it is enough to adapt current regulations or whether we need fundamental changes. Was government intervention at the end of the Bush administration an anomaly or an indispensable permanent element of economic management? Will more regulation help when existing regulations fail to be properly applied, or do we need a fundamentally different approach to the economy?
Adam Smith’s invisible hand does not function without regulations, such as those against monopolies, corruption, and abuse of insider knowledge. Free enterprise requires all sorts of adjustments to function properly, all sorts of visible hands to justify its existence. A theory may be perfectly reasonable, yet not applicable in the real world. We desperately need a new paradigm that better fits the reality.
Since much has been said already about the abuses of the salaries and bonuses in high places, we might review our social ethics in the future, as well as our responsibilities for Third World countries. Is it acceptable that the liberal globalization is the cause of hunger in poor countries?
Much grimmer than these theoretical considerations are current demonstrations in Greece, Iceland, and other nations. Does this foreshadow revolutions throughout the Western world?
The questions for us are: Do we need a new society, new structures, and new ethics? Who will rise to the challenge and propose some? The goals of such a utopia are becoming visible: less consumption, zero or negative growth, more and better social contacts and responsibility, less selfishness, more happiness. Achieving this future (if desired) and avoiding the wild card of Soviet-style implosion will require the remaking of economic science. Can it be done?
About the Author
Marc Blasband is a principal of MobEco, a zero-emissions mobility solutions association. He manages the Chez Grand Père playground and park, featuring demonstrations of MobEco solutions. He has more than 40 years of experience in computer software. His address is Chez Grand Père, Rue Petit Barvaux 2, 6940 Barvaux 0032, Belgium. E-mail blasband@tiscali.nl; Web site www.plainechezgrandpere.be
By Steve Malerich
With technological advances, the first half of the twentieth century saw a movement of workers away from agricultural to industrial production. The second half saw a movement from industrial production to services. So far, technological advances have not reduced our need for service workers. But suppose that advances in artificial intelligence greatly magnify the productivity of service workers, as suggested by the following scenario.
“Andrea” calls the doctor’s office with a medical concern. The doctor’s automated telephone system, in a friendly and personal voice, asks her a series of questions. Based on Andrea’s answers and in consultation with her insurer’s claim system, the doctor’s system directs her to a neighborhood lab for tests. At the lab, another automated system performs the prescribed tests, makes a diagnosis, and dispenses the appropriate medication, all while in contact with Andrea’s insurer. As the service is completed, the insurer pays the cost of the service. Andrea signs for any copayment, to be paid automatically from her bank account. Heading home, Andrea was happily spared from long waits and a hurried contact with the doctor.
To anticipate the realization of such a scenario and its timing, we should watch the sectors with the most potential for early application of AI. These would be where services are already provided at a distance (airline reservations were an early example). Once widespread in these sectors, AI will have built the necessary level of trust and acceptance to move into more and more service sectors.
The critical issue now is that such changes could lead to substantial reduction in service jobs at a time when people will want to (or need to) work longer. Services in the first half of the twenty-first century might thus resemble manufacturing in the second half of the twentieth century, with massive layoffs and substantial incentives for early retirement. If we are to minimize the trauma, we need first to see it coming.
About the Author
Steve Malerich is assistant vice president and actuary at Aegon USA in Cedar Rapids, Iowa. He can be reached at smalerich@aegonusa.com .
By Dennis Miner
Sunspots need our immediate attention. What we should be looking out for is the one that will toast all computers and electrical distribution systems—i.e., the global grid. We will only get a few minutes of warning, then all transistors and most circuit boards will be burned up by the electromagnetic pulse of radiation. The sun may be in a lull during its active cycle right now, but this might be the calm before the storm.
Industrialized humans have become so dependent upon electricity that it is difficult to imagine what we would do without it. Since we build computers with computers and run the grid with computers, what do you think will happen when they all turn off simultaneously? And, if they stay off for a couple months, then what? The right to bear arms as an individual citizen will have a huge effect in the United States. Anarchy and panic are likely, and law enforcement would be rendered helpless.
Widespread infrastructure failures would ensue. Food is not distributed because fuel is needed to do that and the fuel pumps will be dead. Water is not distributed because the pumps are controlled by computers. Waste-water collection systems with pumping stations will fail. Waste-water treatment facilities will bypass their plants with manual valves and dump waste to the receiving streams. Fuels needed for heating will be unavailable. Nuclear power plants will melt down.
We need to develop thirty-minute emergency shutdown procedures for all critical facilities. We need to harden the systems that we use for utilities and emergency power. We need to design fuel storage tanks to be operated manually. If we are lucky, we might have an hour to react.
About the Author
Dennis Miner is vice president, finance and administration, of the Construction Sciences Research Foundation Inc. He lives in New Cumberland, Pennsylvania. E-mail dennisminer@comcast.net