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Futurist Update 2013 Issues

January 2013, Vol. 14, No. 1

In this issue:

Nature Preserves May Be Too Diverse

Increasing the diversity of habitats within environments has been thought to lead to healthier, more sustainable populations—more species of plants and animals thriving together. However, new research calls into question the idea that "more is better" in terms of heterogeneity, particularly in areas of limited size set aside as nature preserves.

In excessively heterogeneous environments, there may be too few resources available for individual species, according to research conducted by Hebrew University of Jerusalem life sciences students Omri Allouche and Michael Kalyuzhny. They hypothesize that such conditions, which predominate in nature preserves, could actually lead to more local extinctions of vulnerable species.

The study, published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, suggests that the current practice of maximizing the diversity in preserves may thus be counterproductive to preserving species.

Source: The Hebrew University of Jerusalem

Access the study (subscription required): "Area–heterogeneity tradeoff and the diversity of ecological communities" by Omri Allouche, Michael Kalyuzhny, Gregorio Moreno-Rueda, Manuel Pizarro, and Ronen Kadmon, PNAS 2012 109 (43) 17495-17500; published ahead of print October 8, 2012

Brain Pacemakers To Stop Memory Loss?

Can a cybernetic brain implant help the elderly keep their memories? In December, a team of researchers from Johns Hopkins University implanted a pacemaker-like device in a patient in the early stages of Alzheimer’s disease. The device sends electrical pulses to areas inside the brain, a treatment that’s referred to as deep brain stimulation.

Deep brain stimulation has proven effective in treating types of Parkinson’s disease, as well as severe depression. Early results from a previous Toronto study suggest that the technique could be useful in slowing or even reversing the effects of Alzheimer’s, as well. Early-stage sufferers who received the device saw an increase in their levels of glucose metabolism over the course of 13 months--a positive sign, since glucose metabolism is a good indicator of increased neuronal activity. Without such stimulation, most Alzheimer’s patients show decreased glucose metabolism in that time.

The United States spends more than $172 billion a year treating the more than 5.3 million Americans who have been diagnosed with Alzheimer's. Within the next 40 years, the number of people diagnosed with the disease is expected to triple as the U.S. baby-boomer population ages. Despite decades of expensive research, scientists have never discovered a drug to reverse the effects of Alzheimer’s disease.

"This is a very different approach, whereby we are trying to enhance the function of the brain mechanically. It's a whole new avenue for potential treatment for a disease becoming all the more common with the aging of the population,"  said Johns Hopkins researcher Paul B. Rosenberg.

Some 40 people are expected to receive the implant in 2013 at Johns Hopkins and four other institutions in the United States and Canada.

Source: Johns Hopkins University. Additional coverage of brain pacemakers from THE FUTURIST magazine, here.

Arts Organizations Learn to Juggle Digital Technology’s Pros and Cons

While maintaining a vibrant and productive presence on social media can be time consuming, nine out of 10 arts organizations agree that it’s worth it, according to "Arts Organizations and Digital Technologies," a new Pew Research Center survey on Web and digital technology’s impacts on the arts.

Researchers Kristin Thompson, Kristen Purcell, and Lee Rainie of Pew’s Internet & American Life Project interviewed leaders at 3,644 art museums, performing groups, art schools, and other arts organizations from across the United States. They found that 97% of the organizations have active profiles on social-media sites, and 91% of those surveyed agreed that "social media is worth the time our organization spends on it." Benefits mentioned include helping the organizations to more successfully engage with the public, boost fundraising, increase ticket sales, draw more attendees to events, and elevate interest in their works

The technologies have their downsides, however: 40% said that digital technology is reducing event attendees’ attention spans, and 71% complained that cell-phone ringing and other "digital distractions" significantly disrupt live performances. Also, 22% agreed that online content is causing in-person attendance at events to drop, and 74% agreed that digital media fosters expectations among audiences that all digital content should be free. A few respondents likewise noted that the public uses arts organizations’ Facebook and Twitter platforms to air grievances about them. The organizations are learning to cope and to use negative feedback as opportunities to learn, engage, and improve their offerings.

Source: Pew Research Center’s Internet & American Life Project

WorldFuture 2013: Exploring the Next Horizon

The Annual Conference of the World Future Society: July 19-21, 2013, at the Hilton Chicago Hotel, Chicago, Illinois.

Don't miss your chance to meet Nicholas Negroponte.

Nicholas Negroponte is the founder of the MIT Media Lab, author of the bestselling book Being Digital
and  a seminal voice in education reform. His One Laptop Per Child program has distributed more than 2.5 million computers to children around the globe.

At WorldFuture 2013, he'll discuss his most recent and bold experiment in education, ever. Here's how he described it recently:

"We have delivered fully loaded tablets to two villages in Ethiopia, one per child, with no instruction or instructional material whatsoever... Within minutes of arrival, the tablets were unboxed and turned on by the kids themselves. After the first week, on average, 47 apps were used per day. After week two, the kids were playing games to race each other in saying the ABCs."


You'll want to hear about how kids in the poorest parts of the world are using new technologies to learn for themselves.


Register Today and Save $200!

THE FUTURIST Magazine Releases Video Top 10 Forecasts for 2013 and Beyond

A new video version of THE FUTURIST Top 10 Forecasts is now available. Each year, THE FUTURIST editors select the most thought-provoking ideas and forecasts appearing in the magazine to go into our annual Outlook report. Over the years, Outlook has spotlighted the emergence of such epochal developments as the Internet, virtual reality, the 2008 financial crisis and the end of the Cold War. But these forecasts are meant as conversation starters, not absolute predictions about the future. We hope that this report--covering developments in business and economics, demography, energy, the environment, health and medicine, resources, society and values, and technology--inspires you to tackle the challenges, and seize the opportunities, of the coming decade.

Source: Read the forecasts or view the video

What's In The January-February issue of THE FUTURIST magazine?

Food, Fuel, and the Global Land Grab

By Lester R. Brown

Growing demand for food and fuel has put pressure on the world’s agricultural lands to produce more. Now, a trend in “land grabbing” has emerged, as wealthy countries lease or buy farms and agribusiness in poorer countries to ensure their own future supplies. The result may be further economic disparities and even food wars.
Read more.

Building the Global Innovation Economy

By Robert D. Atkinson and Stephen J. Ezell

By kickstarting innovation around the world, we could solve pressing economic challenges in ways that benefit both individual nations and the world as a whole. Obstacles to overcome include outdated and unfair policies, special-interest pandering, and fear of the future. Read more.

Crime in the Year 2030

By Gene Stephens

Emerging technologies have always had effects on criminal activity as well as on crime detection and prevention. A futurist specializing in criminal justice assesses his previous predictions about crime in the year 2000 and looks to potential outcomes in the decades ahead. Read more.

Eldering: Aging with Resilience

By James H. Lee

As populations grow older in developed countries, societies are meeting the challenges of aging with newfound resilience. By tapping the maturity and improved vitality of their seniors, families may grow stronger, economies more sustainable, and nations more peaceful. Read more.

The Coming of Intelligent Green Vehicles

A Report from the TechCast Project

By Laura B. Huhn, Kenneth W. Harris, and Dexter Snyder

While many people simply want to get from A to B, transportation options (and especially automobiles) have to meet a variety of consumer demands: They must be clean, affordable, safe, and increasingly intelligent. Here is an overview of the choices and challenges for carmakers and consumers over the next 10 to 15 years. Read more.

Science and a New Kind of Prediction: An Interview with Stephen Wolfram

Interview by Patrick Tucker

Better living through data? When a pioneer of data collection and organization turned his analytical tools on himself, he revealed the complexity of automating human judgment and the difficulty of predicting just what is predictable. Read more.

Tomorrow in Brief

  • Liberal Arts Colleges Are Disappearing
  • Underwater Navigation Modeled on Fish
  • Radiation Shields for Space Workers
  • Progress toward Nano Self-Construction
  • WordBuzz: Narbs

 

And MANY more stories.

Join today!

Futurist Update 2012 Issues

December 2012, Vol. 13, No. 12

In this issue

How Quickly Does Aging Occur? The "Methylome" Offers a Model

Aging is an unevenly distributed process, affecting individuals differently and accelerating with disease and other stress factors. Even an individual’s organs may age at different rates, making it hard to predict when aging occurs.

Now, medical researchers believe they have found "a very robust way of predicting aging, " reports Kang Zhang, MD, of the University of California, San Diego, Institute for Genomic Medicine. In a new paper published in the journal Molecular Cell, Zhang and colleagues focus on how gene activity and expression are promoted or suppressed in the lifelong process of DNA methylation (where a methyl group is added or removed from the cytosine molecule in DNA).

The researchers measured methylation markers in blood samples of 656 persons ranging in age from 19 to 101, validating their model with hundreds of samples from another cohort. They concluded that mapping the entire "methylome" of these markers and changes across the genome offers a reliable way of predicting change over time. In other words, they can determine an individual’s actual biological age from a blood sample and predict rates of decay at the molecular level.

Such information could not only assist in forensics, but also improve therapies, according to Zhang. "For example," he notes, "you could serially profile patients to compare therapies, to see if a treatment is making people healthier and younger. You could screen compounds to see if they retard the aging process at the tissue or cellular level."

Source: University of California, San Diego Health Sciences

The research is published in the November 21, 2012, online edition of Molecular Cell. Read abstract.

Predicting Ice Formation in the Arctic

MIT researchers have created a model to predict where and how much Arctic sea ice will form in winter--critical considerations for navigators, hydrologists, and climatologists.

The model considers large, difficult-to-plot factors, such as how global ocean currents cause small ice sheets to merge into massive ice floes, sometimes hundreds of miles in diameter. The model also looks at interactions on a much smaller scale, such as how ice melting and forming affects the molecular composition of the water itself.

When sea ice melts in the spring it creates pockets of freshwater, which refreeze more easily in winter than does regular salt water. Understanding where these freshwater pockets will form in the spring is key to modeling the amount of ice that will reemerge when the temperature drops.

Over the last thirty years, the amount of sea ice over the Arctic in winter has shrunk tremendously, leading to conflicting forecasts for an ice-less Arctic during the summer months (the predictions for this milestone have ranged from 2050 to 2015).

Arctic ice, which reflects sunlight back into space, plays a critical role in global temperature. The researchers hope their model (really a synthesis of various models) will help climatologists better understand how climate change, ocean currents, and Arctic ice interact.

Source: MIT

Training New Thinkers for a More Complex World

Solving the world’s problems will demand thinkers who are schooled in "complexity science," assert the founders of the Santa Fe Institute (SFI) in New Mexico. For that reason, SFI is expanding its Omidyar Fellows program in 2013 to take in more students and offer them more opportunities to research and learn.

Omidyar Fellows complete three to five years of residence at SFI, during which they work alongside the institute’s scholars to advance the science of complex systems—how myriad sub-systems interrelate and cause changes within the larger systems that make up our economies, societies, and the natural world. Starting in 2013, the program will increase each class size by a third, to total 11-13 fellows per class; introduce new training and professional-development courses; and boost support for fellows’ travel and scientific collaboration.

"Through the SFI Omidyar Fellowship, we want to identify the most promising young postdoctoral scholars working on important problems, and provide them the skills, opportunities, and freedoms to become tomorrow’s Albert Einsteins, tomorrow’s Margaret Meads, tomorrow’s Murray Gell-Manns," said SFI president Jerry Sabloff.

SFI is also bringing complexity science to the general public with a free, online Massive Open Online Course (MOOC) on introductory complexity-science theory. As SFI communications director John German notes, MOOCs are gaining popularity in higher education and "could very well topple the university system itself unless academic institutions get on board."

Source: Santa Fe Institute

What’s New @WFS

Business Summit in Mexico Focuses on Education and Futuring

At the annual Mexico Business Summit, held November 11-13, World Future Society President Timothy Mack discussed how best to tackle education reform as a way to stimulate and support economic growth in Mexico. The summit focused on "Energies for Developing Mexico" as it transitions under the leadership of incoming President Enrique Peña Nieto, who also spoke at summit.

Peña Nieto appears to be bringing serious futures work to the forefront of Mexican policy planning; he himself spoke at the World Future Society’s annual conference in 2008. And the recently ended Business Summit featured well-known futurist Paul Saffo as the opening plenary session speaker.

Mack also participated in a press conference during his visit, and was interviewed on the popular morning edition of the radio program, Enfoque Noticias, during which he predicted that Mexico’s growing economic strength will also change the nature of Mexico-U.S. relations.

Details: 2012 Mexican Business Summit program (PDF)

Mack’s interview with Leonardo Curzio on Enfoque Noticias Podcast

Four New Directors Offer Vision and Expertise to WFS Board

Receiving unanimous approval from the World Future Society’s directors, four outstanding thought leaders have accepted the Society’s invitation to join the Board.

  • Nancy Donovan, senior analyst at the U.S. Government Accountability Office, Center for Evaluation Methods, has worked with WFS conference organizers to develop programs offering increased value to officials in the public sector.
  • Joyce Gioia, president and CEO of The Herman Group and editor of its weekly newsletter, The Herman Alert, also serves as THE FUTURIST magazine’s contributing editor on Workforce/Workplace issues.
  • Carol D. Rieg, corporate foundation officer of Bentley Systems Inc., has volunteered for the Society in numerous capacities, including serving as the chair of the WorldFuture 2010 conference in Boston.
  • Les Wallace, president of Signature Resources Inc., is a specialist in tracking business environment and workplace trends, analyzing and anticipating their impacts on business and government.

Also joining the WFS team, as deputy conference director, is Dawn Tullis, who brings event-planning and relationship-marketing experience, plus organizational and networking savvy.

Advertisement

Announcing: WorldFuture 2013 Video Contest

The World Future Society is pleased to announce a video contest on the theme of Exploring the Next Horizon, in conjunction with the annual conference to be held July 19-21, 2013, in Chicago, Illinois. The grand prize will include a cash award and public showing of the winning video during the conference.

The conference theme was inspired by THE FUTURIST magazine’s special report, The 22nd Century at First Light: Envisioning Life in the Year 2100 (September-October 2012). We therefore encourage entrants to explore these essays—forecasts, scenarios, timelines, tools, and questions—to inspire their own video presentations.

So come up with your most creative way to report on trends or tell a story about life in the year 2100. Possible approaches include an interview with an expert, a dramatization of a scenario, or a journalistic report on trends and forecasts. Animations welcome, too!

This contest is open to any group or individual age 16 or older (or submitted by a parent or legal guardian). Entrants may submit up to three videos, submitted separately. Deadline for all submissions is March 18, 2013.

For more information, see here.

What’s Hot in THE FUTURIST Magazine?

Outlook 2013

Human actions could become more accurately predictable, thanks to neuroscience. Nano-sized robots will deliver cancer-fighting drugs directly to their targets. And though many recently lost jobs may never come back, people will find plenty to do (and get paid for) in the future. These are just a few of the forecasts you’ll find in this latest edition of Outlook. Read more.

Whatever Happened to Western Civilization? The Cultural Crisis, 20 Years Later

By Richard Eckersley

In 1993, THE FUTURIST published author Richard Eckersley’s provocative essay, The West’s Deepening Cultural Crisis. Here, he looks back at what has happened since, and forward to what the next 20 years might hold. Read more.

In Search of the Better Angels of Our Future

By Kenneth B. Taylor

The ideologies that once guided us through political and economic conflicts— such as communism versus capitalism—have little relevance to cultures that face new, technologically driven conflicts over the very meaning of humanity. As we relentlessly pursue paradigm-altering technologies, we will need a new set of guidelines for understanding who we are and where we are heading. Read more.

Who Will Be Free? The Battles for Human Rights to 2050

By Josh Calder

As geopolitical power around the world shifts, so will the global consensus on human rights. There are challenges ahead, but the expansion of affluence, education, and digital technology may lead to a freer and more humane world in the long run. Read more.

The Global Talent Chase: China, India, and U.S. Vie for Skilled Workers

By Edward E. Gordon

Too many tech jobs and not enough tech professionals to fill them—China, India, and the United States all face this dilemma. Here is what each economic powerhouse is—and should be—doing to ease its workforce gap, and a look at a successful strategy known as Regional Talent Innovation Networks, or RETAINS. Read more.

Dream, Design, Develop, Deliver: From Great Ideas to Better Outcomes

By Rick Docksai

A better future doesn’t happen on its own. We create it with our ideas, plans, and actions. In July, hundreds of futurists from around the world took the opportunity to dream, design, develop, and deliver  the future together at WorldFuture 2012. Read more.

Tomorrow in Brief

  • Threats to Biodiversity in Protected Forests
  • Sapphire Optics
  • Acoustic Tweezers
  • Amish Boom
  • WordBuzz: Connectome

And MANY more stories.

Join today!

November 2012, Vol. 13, No. 11

Trending on Twitter, Five Hours from Now

MIT Researchers Devavrat Shah and Stanislav Nikolov have created a machine learning algorithm that can predict what topics will trend on Twitter as many as five hours in advance, with 95% accuracy.

"This is a very simplistic model. Now, based on the data, you try to train for when the jump happens, and how much of a jump happens," says Shah.

The algorithm determines the probability of a topic becoming a trending topic based on how closely the topic in question resembles the growth pattern of previous topics that went trending. As the amount of training data grows—that is, the number of raw tweets from Twitter that reveal patterns--the algorithm will improve, says Shah.

Speeding up the identification of breaking news and hot topics could benefit news organizations, users, and advertisers, the researchers believe.

Source: MIT

Devavrat Shah will speak about this research at the MIT Museum on Friday, Nov. 9, from 12:10 to 12:50 p.m. Learn more here.

In Need of a New Systems Approach to Save the World’s Fish

Fisheries management as we know it is failing the world’s fish, says Ellen K. Pikitch, executive director of the Institute for Ocean Conservation Science and professor at Stony Brook University. She warns that fisheries will have to become much more precautionary, or else many of the world’s fish species will die out.

In an article for the October 26 edition of the journal Science, Pikitch and co-authors point out that fish populations worldwide are all below the levels that standard fisheries management recommends. Even worse, many species are exhibiting a continuing trajectory of decline.

Traditional fisheries management makes the mistake, the study contends, of focusing on only one given species at a time and not looking at the whole ecosystem or at the other fish species and wildlife whose numbers may be declining, as well.

Pikitch serves on the Lenfest Forage Fish Task Force, which proposes replacing this "single-species" approach with an " ecosystem-based" approach. This would limit fishing strictly to the places and quantities that are safe and that pose minimal risk of damaging the underwater ecosystems, based on what the data of the ecosystems and fisheries indicates.

Source: Stony Brook University

Social Media Provide Early Alerts for Manufacturing Defects

If something goes wrong with your car, you’ll probably text your family first, Facebook your friends, Instagram a snapshot of your disaster, and tweet a general complaint to the rest of the world. Then you’ll get the car fixed. Probably the last thing you would do is go to the manufacturer’s Web site and fill out a feedback form.

Social media represent a largely untapped source of information that could be extremely valuable to manufacturers that need to stay on top of safety and reliability problems. The challenge is to sift useful data out of the mountains of unrelated information that consumers share on message boards, blogs, Facebook, Twitter, and the like.

At Virginia Tech, business information scholars Alan Abrams and Weiguo Fan are developing a sort of linguistic smoke detector to identify potentially useful information about specific automobiles that may be contained in vast amounts of " dynamic and unstructured" social media content.

Beginning with online discussion forums for owners of Honda, Toyota, and Chevrolet vehicles, the researchers employed car experts to manually sort and tag posts that contained information about defects. The "automotive smoke words" enabled the researchers to devise decision support systems (such as automated Web crawlers) to help manufacturers discover defects.

The researchers plan to expand their analysis to Twitter and Facebook postings. Says Abrams, "With the volume of social media posts expanding rapidly, we expect that the need for automated business intelligence tools for the exploration of this vast and valuable data set will continue to grow."

Source: Virginia Tech

WorldFuture 2013: Exploring the Next Horizon

The Annual Conference of the World Future Society: July 19-21, 2013 at the Hilton Chicago Hotel, Chicago, Illinois.


Register Today and Save $250!

The World Future Society's annual conference, WorldFuture 2013: Exploring the Next Horizon, will give you the opportunity to learn from others in many different fields, and to explore actions affecting our futures in as yet unimagined ways.

The conference will feature nearly 100 leading futurists offering more than 60 sessions, workshops, and special events over the course of two and a half days. And for those who want to take a deeper dive, into key studies of interest, the preconference Master Classes allow for an in-depth look in a small group setting.

New for 2013: 22nd Century Lecture Series

Special hour-long sessions each day will focus on one of the six major themes of the conference, offering expert insights on issues, trends, forecasts, scenarios, and wild cards in Earth, Humanity, Commerce, Governance, Sci/Tech, and Futuring.

Video Highlights from WorldFuture 2012

Age Isn't a Number (Video)

Adriane Berg, author of How Not to Go Broke at 102, explains why insurers don’t care how old you are – and neither should you. Excerpt from WorldFuture 2012; video by Hunter Molnar Stanton for the World Future Society. Watch the video here.

What Is A Futurist? Interview Nine of Them in Nine Minutes

By Patrick Tucker

What is a futurist? Every self-described futurist you ask will likely give you a different answer. A more interesting question is what do these people say about the future? Brian Bethune from Maclean's magazine recently put that query to a grab bag of inventors, technologists, geneticists, business consultants, and writers he encountered at WorldFuture 2012, the Society's recently concluded conference in Toronto, Canada. Read more.

October 2012, Vol. 13. No. 10

Climate Change and Forests: Good for Canada, Bad for Europe?

Canada’s far northern territory of Nunavut has been a treeless tundra for millennia, but it could be home to flourishing forests by century’s end, due to global warming, according to Alexandre Guertin-Pasquier, University of Montreal geographer. Guertin-Pasquier, who presented his findings September 21 at the Canadian Paleontology Conference in Toronto, explained that tree fossils found in Nunavut indicate that forests of oak, spruce, and hickory did cover much of the territory about 2.6 million years ago, when the Earth was warmer, and that if current projections of warming bear out, those forests will return in full.

Meanwhile, global warming will shrink forests throughout Europe, according to a study led by Marc Hanewinkel from the Swiss Federal Research Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research. The study findings, which were published in the online journal Nature Climate Change, warn that much of the continent’s forest cover is composed of Norway spruce and other tree species that are accustomed to cooler climates. Sudden warming, combined with lengthier and more frequent droughts, would significantly harm them.

Other tree species that favor warmer temperatures, such as cork oak and Holm oak, might expand their ranges. These species, however, deliver lower economic returns for the timber industry, and they sequester less carbon dioxide. The study projects that climate-change-related damage will reduce the economic value of the continent’s forest land by 14% to 50%—an economic loss of 60 billion to 680 billion euros—unless the European community enacts swift and effective countermeasures to curb CO2.

Source: University of Montreal

Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research.

Using Brain Scans to Predict Future Test Performance

Will a brain scan reveal how well you’ve studied for a big test? Researchers at Sandia National Laboratory have demonstrated that the brain’s electrical activity, detectable via electroencephalogram (EEG), predicts how well studied material has been incorporated into memory, and, thus, how well subjects performed on memory tests.

The researchers asked 23 people to attempt to memorize a list of words while undergoing brain scanning. The average subject recalled 45% of the words on the list. The EEG data correctly predicted which five of the 23 subjects would beat the competition, remembering 72% of the words on average.

"If you had someone learning new material and you were recording the EEG, you might be able to tell them, ‘You’re going to forget this, you should study this again,’ or tell them, ‘OK, you got it and go on to the next thing,’ " chief researcher Laura Matzen said in a statement.

Matzen presented her findings at the Cognitive Neuroscience Society conference in Chicago. This second phase of research will determine the effectiveness of various types of research and training methods.

Source: Sandia National Laboratories

Cities Will Support 5 Billion Humans by 2030, but Fewer Other Species

Urban areas around the world are expanding at twice the rate of their populations, reversing historic trends toward increased density within city limits. The result will be more loss of habitat and biodiversity, warns a team of researchers in a new paper published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

More than 1 million square kilometers of land—largely in biodiversity “hotspots”—have a high probability of being converted to urban use by 2030, with nearly half of the expansion occurring in Asia (primarily China and India), according to the authors. However, the fastest land-to-urban conversion will occur in Africa, which will see urban land cover grow 590% above the 2000 level.

This urban expansion will encroach on or destroy habitats for 139 endangered amphibian species, 41 mammalian species, and 25 bird species, the researchers predict.

"Given the long life and near irreversibility of infrastructure investments, it will be critical for current urbanization-related policies to consider their lasting impacts," says lead author Karen Seto, associate professor in the urban environment at the Yale School of Forestry & Environmental Studies. "The world will experience an unprecedented era of urban expansion and city-building over the next few decades. The associated environmental and social challenges will be enormous, but so are the opportunities"

Source: "Global forecasts of urban expansion to 2030 and direct impacts on biodiversity and carbon pools" by Karen C. Seto, Burak Güneralp, and Lucy R. Hutyra. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, published ahead of print September 17, 2012, doi:10.1073/pnas.1211658109.

Event Alerts: The Singularity Summit Returns to San Francisco, GLOBAL +5 Takes Place in Geneva, and Robert Moran hits D.C.

The sixth annual Singularity Summit will take place in San Francisco, California, at the Nob Hill Masonic Center, October 13-14, 2012.

Speakers at this year’s summit include inventor and futurist Ray Kurzweil, neuroscientist Steven Pinker, Google researcher Peter Norvig, and science fiction author Vernor Vinge, among others.

The Singularity Summit 2012 is produced by the Singularity Institute, a nonprofit organization that endeavors to "raise awareness about the promise and peril of advanced artificial intelligence and to develop a mathematical theory of safe artificial intelligence, "according to the organization’s Web site. The Institute’s mission is to "ensure that the creation of smarter-than-human intelligence benefits society. "

Learn more and register: http://singularitysummit.com

The GLOBAL +5 conference, a competition of future-focused projects from around the world, will take place at the Mandarin Oriental hotel in Geneva, Switzerland, October 9-10. The projects approach mobility, democracy, global governance, sustainable competitiveness, energy security, and innovation in a new way. The jury will meet on October 9. Results will be declared and awards will be presented on October 10.

Learn more and register http://global5.theglobaljournal.com/

The Futures of Marketing

Robert, Moran, marketing expert and partner at the Brunswick Group, believes marketing is headed for a significant transformation. While the industry will still exist, he thinks it will reposition, rebrand, and rename itself with a more forward-thinking term such as, consumer insights, business insights, or
business intelligence industry.

Moran will present his insights to the U.S. National Capital Region Chapter
on October 18 at the Hilton Garden Inn, 7301 Waverly Street, Bethesda, MD. Kick-off time is 6:00 PM. Learn more here.

WorldFuture 2013: Exploring the Next Horizon

The Annual Conference of the World Future Society: July 19-21, 2013 at the Hilton Chicago Hotel, Chicago, Illinois.

Register Today and Save $300!

The World Future Society's annual conference, WorldFuture 2013: Exploring the Next Horizon, will give you the opportunity to learn from others in many different fields, and to explore actions affecting our futures in as yet unimagined ways.

The conference will feature nearly 100 leading futurists offering more than 60 sessions, workshops, and special events over the course of two and a half days. And for those who want to take a deeper dive, into key studies of interest, the preconference Master Classes allow for an in-depth look in a small group setting.

New for 2013: 22nd Century Lecture Series

Special hour-long sessions each day will focus on one of the six major themes of the conference, offering expert insights on issues, trends, forecasts, scenarios, and wild cards in Earth, Humanity, Commerce, Governance, Sci/Tech, and Futuring.

Register today.

The deadline for session proposals and course proposals is October 31. Submit here.

September 2012, Vol. 13. No. 9

Wright's Law: A Better Predictor of Technological Progress than Moore's Law

Moore's law, which says that number of transistors you can fit onto an integrated circuit doubles every 18 months, has been the benchmark measurement for technical progress in electronics for decades. The doubling of transistors on a chip translates to a doubling of computing power and so--it was believed-- Moore's law was the reason why people in 2007 could carry a computer in their pocket, the Apple iPhone, that was four hundred times more powerful than the first Apple computer that debuted in 1976 (as measured by Hertz).

But because Moore's law applies only to electronics, it can't be used to forecast technological progress in other areas, or even in areas of computing that don't involve transistors, such as in quantum computing.

Researchers from the Santa Fe Institute now argue that a theory proposed by Theodore Wright in 1936, called Wright's law, is actually a better reflection of technological progress than is Moore's law. In their working paper, "Statistical Basis for Predicting Technological Progress," they detail how they looked at technological progress rates from 62 different technologies including chemical compound manufacture, mechanical engineering, etc., and found key similarities.

"Moore's law says that costs come down no matter what at an exponential rate. Wright's law says that costs come down as a function of cumulative production. It could be production is going up because cost is going down," Santa Fe Institute lecturer Doyne Farmer told Futurist Update.

More importantly, Wright's law can be applied to a much wider variety of engineering areas, not just transistors. That will give technological forecasters a new way to measure and predict progress and cost for everything from airplane manufacturing (its original use) to the costs of building better photovoltaic panels.

"It means that if investors or the government are willing to stimulate production, then we can bring the cost down faster. In the case of global warming, for instance, I think that a massive stimulus program has the potential to really bring the arrival date for having solar energy beat coal a lot sooner," said Farmer.

He and his colleagues are expanding their working paper into more expansive study that further details the relationship between costs and the rate of progress. "We're trying to make nice, probabilistic forecasts for where solar will be with and without stimulus, what's the distribution of times that will happen with business as usual or a scenario," says Farmer. They plan to submit their final work to Nature next month.

Source: Doyne Farmer (interview), The Santa Fe Institute. "Statistical Basis for Predicting Technological Progress" (PDF) is available from the Santa Fe Institute.

Thanks to David Wood (@dw2) for the tip!

Too Many Choices for the Future? Consumers Want Fewer "Flavors"

A choice of 33 flavors of ice cream tonight may be highly desirable, but most people don’t want to sort through 33 types of annuity options for their retirement decades from now. Psychological distance from a decision outcome tends to determine the number of options that consumers wish to deal with, according to Joseph K. Goodman and Selin A. Malkoc, both assistant professors of marketing at Washington University in St. Louis.

"The lure of assortment may not be as universal as previously thought. Consumers’ preferences for large assortments can decrease due to a key psychological factor—psychological distance," the authors write in a paper to be published in the Journal of Consumer Research.

In retirement planning, for instance, we typically prefer to focus on the end goal—target dates and income, choice of residence, or whether to volunteer part time. Consumers needing to make a decision about an annuity plan may actually prefer fewer choices, the researchers found. This preference could help inform retailers’ strategies.

"In product categories where psychological distance is automatically evoked, it might not be necessary for retailers to offer a large and overwhelming number of options," the authors conclude. "Consumers may even be attracted to those sellers offering a smaller and simpler assortment of options."

Goodman and Malkoc's work echoes a famous 2001 study by Sheena Iyengar and Mark Leeper of Columbia University titled "When Choice is Demotivating: Can One Desire Too Much of a Good Thing?" Iyengar and Leeper set up table outside of California grocery store and offered some passersby six flavors of jam; others they offered 24 flavors. When there were 24 options, only 3% of the customers purchased anything. When the number of options was a more manageable six, the purchase rate was 30%. Moral? if you're making your customers select from too many options they aren't going to select as well.

Sources: Washington University in St. Louis

The study "Choosing for the Here and Now vs. There and Later: The Moderating Role of Psychological Distance on Assortment Size Preference," is available online and scheduled to appear in the December 2012 print issue of the Journal of Consumer Research.

Download the Iyengar and Leeper paper: "When Choice is Demotivating: Can One Desire Too Much of a Good Thing?" here.

Counterterrorism Efforts "Target" Boston’s Subways

The U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS) has chosen the Boston subway system as a real-life testing ground to evaluate several experimental models of biological agent-detection sensors. Scientists from the Science and Technology Directorate will spray subway tunnels during the off hours with quantities of dead Bacillus subtilis, a bacterial strain that is common in soil and plants and is not hazardous to humans. The researchers will then deploy the sensors to see if they can detect the bacteria’s presence.

This Detect-to-Protect (D2P) Bio Detection project will run from September 2012 until February 2013, with oversight from the Massachusetts Bay Transportation Authority, as well as state and local public-health officials. Flir Inc., Northrop Grumman, Menon and Associates, and Qinetiq North America are the systems’ manufacturers. If the systems work as their designers intend, then they will be able to detect a microbial strain within minutes, allowing DHS authorities to mobilize fast public responses in the event of a biological attack.

Source: U.S. Department of Homeland Security

News from World Future Society

Partnership with SAGE: Beginning in 2013, World Future Review, the journal of the Society’s Professional Membership program, will join an esteemed roster of science journals published by SAGE Publications Inc.

WFR’s editorial content will continue to be managed solely by the Society, which has lined up an international board of peer reviewers. SAGE will contribute its vast publishing and marketing experience and resources, greatly facilitating the review and editing process, enhancing the reader experience, and improving research tools.

The Society is working on additional benefits for the Professional Membership program and is pleased to announce that the current dues structure is unaffected.

School Leaders Look to THE FUTURIST: More than a thousand school superintendants across the United States will regularly receive THE FUTURIST magazine, thanks to an agreement with National School Development Council. NSDC Secretary/Treasurer Jack Sullivan recently informed WFS of the Council’s plan to add THE FUTURIST magazine to the resources it makes available to its regional members. NSDC serves the leadership of school study and development councils across the United States. These regional, state, and county councils work with local school systems to improve educators’ skills and knowledge and to provide professional development assistance and resources. Learn more about NSDC.

Plans for WorldFuture 2013 Gear Up: Yes, we know the 2012 conference just ended, but we’re futurists! And we’re already drawing from the energy and ideas in Toronto to plan an even better conference experience for Chicago next July. Among the ideas in development for WorldFuture 2013: Exploring the Next Horizon are:

  • Poster Session, including a cash-bar reception with the poster presenters.
  • 22nd Century Lecture Series by leading futurists, focusing on the six major conference tracks.
  • Video Competition for students to explore the forecasts and scenarios in THE FUTURIST’s special report, "The 22nd Century at First Light: Envisioning Life in the Year 2100."

Stay tuned for details! If you have an idea for a special event or activity for WorldFuture 2013 and would like to volunteer your time to help develop it, please contact conference administrator Sarah Warner at Society headquarters. Learn more about WorldFuture 2013

Speakers at last year's conference received coverage from i09, The Toronto Star, the Globe and Mail, the Epoch Times, CBC, and CTV Canada.

Download the final WorldFuture 2012 program

Order a copy of the special conference edition (Summer 2012) of World Future Review

Browse audio highlights: IntelliQuest Media

Register at the early-bird rate for WorldFuture 2013, to be held in Chicago, July 19-21, 2013

August 2012, Vol. 13, No. 8

In this issue:

Global Warming Causes Heat Waves, Says NASA Scientist

Heat wave events, once rare, are becoming more frequent due to global warming, says NASA scientist James Hansen. Such summertime heat events covered only 1% of Earth’s surface for most of the time since humanity has been studying the climate. Now, when they occur, they cover closer to 10% of the global land area.

"We conclude that extreme heat waves, such as that in Texas and Oklahoma in 2011 and Moscow in 2010, were ‘caused’ by global warming, because their likelihood was negligible prior to the recent rapid global warming," Hansen writes in a new paper, "Perceptions of Climate Change: The New Climate Dice," to be published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

This summer saw another major and anomalous climate related event; over the course four days, from July 8 to July 12, the amount of melting occurring over the surface of Greenland went from a seasonally normal 40% to an abnormal 97%, according to NASA scientists working with satellite data.

Massive melting was even observed at the Summit Central station located at the highest and coldest point of the Greenland ice sheet, nearly two miles above the sea level. Though extremely unusual, the melting phenomenon is not without precedent. A corollary event occurred in 1889, and ice-core samples suggest that Greenland melting seems to occur every 150 years.

However, scientists say that this year’s event was likely caused by extremely unusual high pressure systems, or heat ridges, which have been moving over Greenland since May. "Each successive ridge has been stronger than the previous one," says University of Georgia climatologist Thomas Mote. This latest heat ridge made its way over the central part of Greenland on July 8 and stayed there until about July 16. Scientists believe that the ice will regrow, but the new ice, at least at first, will not be as thick as the ice that melted.

Scientists believe that the Arctic is heating twice to four times as fast as the rest of the globe. The bigger heat ridges in the Arctic may be linked to changes in the jet stream, as a result of manmade global warming.

Sources: NASA; an early draft of the paper by James Hansen et al. is available from Columbia University, Download PDF

NOTE: Futurist Magazine Update editor Patrick Tucker will be speaking on these and other issues related to climate and the future with Michio Kaku on Science Fantastic, airing Saturday, August 11. Check your local listings here.

New Organ Prize Aims to Put an End to Organ Shortages

As supplies of donor organs continue to trail the numbers of patients who need them, the Methuselah Foundation is pursuing the prospect of building new organs right in the lab. This nonprofit organization, which sponsors and advocates for research into arresting and reversing the human body’s aging processes, recently announced that it will dispense a New Organ Prize to go to any researcher who successfully constructs an entire new organ from a patient’s own cells. The competition specifies a few required benchmarks. For example, the organ must have maintained viability in its lab for two years or more.

"Our New Organ Prize is designed to connect the vast community of those needing replacement organs with those who can do something about it in an accelerating time frame that prizes have proven to produce," says David Gobel, CEO of the Methuselah Foundation.

A prize could be just the catalyst that organ generation may need, as past prizes have brought about solutions to other global problems, Gobel adds. For instance, a Food Preservation Prize in the early nineteenth century spurred the development of refrigeration, which effectively ended famine in the developed world.

"It took a prize to get someone to fix it—and fix it they did," he says.

The Methuselah Foundation is counting on donors to provide the funding for the prize, whose exact dollar amount will be greater or smaller depending on contributions. Donors can deposit funds directly via the Web site.

Sources: The Methuselah Foundation, NewOrgan.org

Innovators Go on Display at Futurists: BetaLaunch 2012

Innovative leaps in marketing, gaming, personal health care, and even national defense—visitors saw all of these and more at the World Future Society’s Futurists: BetaLaunch 2012, an expo of 11 future-thinking start-ups. The event took place July 28 in Toronto, in conjunction with WorldFuture 2012.

"Best in show" went to The Mission Business, a Toronto design collective out of OCAD University that produces connected live-action and online entertainment experience. Their project, ZED.TO, an "interactive, twenty-first-century marketing campaign," entertained and informed with a dramatized debut of BioLogyc, a fictional pharmaceutical company that uses volunteer and crowd-sourced research and development to produce gene-based drug therapies. There actually is no such company, but the business model is a real concept.

"ZED.TO is a transmedia project that allows audiences to join the ranks of ByoLogyc, a fictional biotech corporation from the near future. By exploring the world of ByoLogyc through live-action events and online media, audiences challenge their assumptions about the future, helping us understand the future of entertainment, the evolution of technologies like synthetic biology, and how corporations and organizations can anticipate the future needs and values of customers," says Trevor Haldenby, co-founder of The Mission Business.

Meanwhile, exhibitor CyberHero League presented its real-life approach to engaging young people in social causes via video games. The company’s computer games teach players about conservation, world hunger, and other issues. As the kids play the games and rack up points, actual donors contribute donations toward efforts relevant to those causes in the real world.

A third exhibitor, Lifetech, debuted an ion proton genome sequencer that could sequence a person’s entire genome within one day. The first sequencer may be released at the end of the year.

Then there was B-Temia, designer of a "dermoskeleton," a skintight brace-like device that soldiers in combat could wear to protect against acute injury and repetitive strains. The company’s spokesman said that U.S. military leaders are very interested: Increasingly lengthy deployments have been making repetitive-strain injuries a serious problem.

Source: Futurists: BetaLaunch 2012

Andrew Hessel (left), the real father of synthetic biology, meets Chet Getram (center), the fictional father of synthetic biology and CEO of the faux company ByoLogyc, and ByoLogic player Olive Swift (right) at WorldFuture 2012

The Future’s Narrative: A Report from WorldFuture 2012

The World Future Society’s 2012 conference, held in Toronto July 27-29, got off to an inspiring start thanks to Lee Rainie (director of the Pew Research Center’s Internet & American Life Project) and Brian David Johnson (director of Future Casting and Experience Research for Intel Corp.).

Rainie’s survey work involves offering experts two alternative scenarios of change ("tension pairs") and asking them to pick which will be more likely to happen. While the resulting data provides an overview of the experts’ general mind-set (optimistic or pessimistic), the open-ended narrative responses to the scenarios are more useful, Rainie said.

Johnson used science-fiction references to make his point that "futurecasting is not about predicting the future; it’s about developing an actionable vision that we can build." And building that future will mean understanding the language of computing, or algorithms. "Algorithms are written by people, and it’s a story, a narrative," he said. Referencing Mary Shelley’s parable about Frankenstein’s monster—that if you build something, it will come to life and kill you—we need to change the narrative about the things we make.

As an example of a "real mad scientist" who is changing that narrative, Johnson introduced surprise guest speaker Andrew Hessel, whose Pink Army Cooperative is working on curing cancer—for free. Hessel’s work with synthetic biology changes the narrative of what viruses are. "Viruses are apps," he said. Viruses are used to load "software" (cancer-fighting compounds) into cells.

Naveen Jain, founder of Moon Express, promoted an entrepreneurial approach to solving problems: "Don’t be afraid of doing well, but if you can do well by doing good, you’re a great entrepreneur." In other words, don’t just do the "feel-good" stuff; solve billion-dollar problems, and think about the scalability of solutions.

In his Saturday luncheon speech, Geordie Rose, creator of the World's First Quantum Computer, said that quantum computation is advancing faster than Moore's Law. And on Sunday, speaker Edie Weiner looked at the future of 3-D printing, pharmaceuticals, cutting-edge trends in neuroscience, and the widening frontier of the possible.

These are just a few highlights of the more than 50 presentations, workshops, and roundtables taking place during WorldFuture 2012: Dream. Design. Develop. Deliver. Further coverage of the event will appear in the November-December 2012 issue of THE FUTURIST magazine.

WorldFuture 2012 speakers received coverage from i09, The Toronto Star, the Globe and Mail, the Epoch Times, CBC, and CTV Canada.

Download the final WorldFuture 2012 program

Order a copy of the special conference edition (Summer 2012) of World Future Review

Browse audio highlights: IntelliQuest Media

Register at the early-bird rate for WorldFuture 2013, to be held in Chicago, July 19-21, 2013

July 2012, Vol. 13, No. 7

Genetic Analysis of Children Detects Abnormalities in Parents

Previously undetected abnormalities may be revealed in the parents of children born with congenital anomalies, thanks to testing known as genome-wide array analysis.

The knowledge of a possible genetic source of their children’s abnormalities could help parents make more-informed decisions regarding their own health, as well as whether or not to have more children, according to researchers developing the testing technique.

The team of genetic researchers, led by Nicole de Leeuw of the Radboud University Nijmegen Medical Centre in Nijmegen, Netherlands, focused on "mosaic abnormalities," where both genetically normal and abnormal cells may be found in an individual.

The analysis uses samples taken from different cells—from blood and a mouth swab, for instance—to detect aberrations in the DNA of patients with intellectual disabilities or other abnormalities not traditionally thought to be genetically based. The same test is then used on their parents.

"These abnormalities occurred more frequently than we had expected," de Leeuw reports. "Armed with this knowledge, we can try to understand not only why, but also how genetic disease arises in individuals, and this can help us to provide better genetic counseling."

The researchers presented their findings June 24 at the annual conference of the European Society of Human Genetics.

Source: European Society of Human Genetics

Getting the Climate Models to Agree

Hundreds of climate models forecast global climate warming this century, but they contradict each other on exactly how much warming will take place—and where. Now, Ohio State University statisticians may have found a way to form a climate model consensus.

The researchers—Noel Cressie, statistics professor and director of Ohio State’s Program in Spatial Statistics and Environmental Statistics, and former graduate student Emily Kang, now at the University of Cincinnati—used a combination of spatial statistics that Cressie pioneered to reconcile two projections of temperature increases across North America for the years 2041 to 2070.

Their analysis found commonalities between the models, determined how much weight to give to each, and crunched these values into a single forecast of average temperature increase for the continent as a whole and for each region in any season of any year.

North America’s land temperatures will rise by an average of 2.5°C (4.5°F) by 2070, according to their analysis. Winters in the Hudson Bay will see the most disruption, with temperatures rising an estimated 6°C (10.7°F), while the Rocky Mountains region is in for a summertime increase of 3.5°C (6.3°F).

Cressie and Kang hope to incorporate a larger number of models for other parts of the world to build public awareness of the widespread scientific agreement on climate change and the case for action. They presented their results in the International Journal of Applied Earth Observation and Geoinformation.

Source: Ohio State University

Foreign Investment in Agriculture—or Land Grab?

The world’s economic powerhouses are dealing with domestic resource shortages by buying land elsewhere. Rather than exporting food to their wealthier neighbors, countries in resource-rich regions are leasing or selling their agricultural land itself to foreign investors, reports the Worldwatch Institute.

Critics call the phenomenon a "land grab" by places like China, India, and Brazil, involving more than 70 million hectares around the world, according to data compiled by the Land Matrix Project. The biggest target for these investments by far is Africa, where 34.3 million hectares have been sold or leased since 2000.

While some of this foreign investment is a result of increased regional cooperation among emerging-economy neighbors, we are also seeing "wealthy (or increasingly wealthy) countries, many with little arable land, buying up land in low-income nations--especially those that have been particularly vulnerable to the financial and food crises of recent years," says Worldwatch researcher Cameron Scherer.

The trend may increase the displacement of local farmers, as well as replace small-farm practices with industrial agricultural practices that may have negative, long-term ecological consequences, Scherer warns.

Source: Worldwatch Institute

Will We Have Smart Homes by 2020? Internet Experts are Divided

More than 1,000 Internet stakeholders, trend-watchers, observers, and futurists weighed on the future of the Internet. A report by the Pew Internet and American Life Project and Elon University found Internet experts optimistic about future improvements in smart devices and the experts see greater adoption of them among consumers. But respondents were split on the idea that many people will be living in the long promised "smart home" of the future, a home with replete with built-in sensors to detect and respond to its occupant's every wish and desire, by 2020.

More than half (51%) of the respondents agreed with the statement:

By 2020, the connected household has become a model of efficiency, as people are able to manage consumption of resources (electricity, water, food, even bandwidth) in ways that place less of a burden on the environment while saving households money. Thanks to what is known as "smart systems," the Home of the Future that has often been foretold is coming closer and closer to becoming a reality.

But 46% agreed with the contrasting scenario:

By 2020, most initiatives to embed IP-enabled devices in the home have failed due to difficulties in gaining consumer trust and because of the complexities in using new services. As a result, the home of 2020 looks about the same as the home of 2011 in terms of resource consumption and management. Once again, the Home of the Future does not come to resemble the future projected in the recent past.

"The experts pointed out the high level of complexity involved in smart systems," report co-author Lee Rainie, director of Pew Internet, said in a press release. "They said the large hurdles to overcome include getting the various players to agree to standardize communication across sectors of consumer products and making the right moves in regard to oversight of regulation and the provision of incentives to encourage positive change."

The results were part of a survey conducted in the fall of 2011, which covered aspects of the future of the Internet ranging from smart devices to big data. The report on smart homes was released on Friday. You can read the report at http://www.imaginingtheInternet.org.

You can meet Rainie at WorldFuture 2012, the annual conference of the World Future Society taking place in Toronto at the end of this month.

Source: Pew Internet and American Life Project

Bonus: Also check out Chris Carbone and Kristin Nauth coverage on the future of smart homes in the July-August issue of THE FUTURIST magazine

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We’re eagerly counting down the days till we all meet up in Toronto for WorldFuture 2012: Dream. Design. Develop. Deliver!

An Invaluable Learning Opportunity!

The adventure begins with the preconference Master Courses on July 26 and 27. These intensive all-day workshops are not only a great way to prepare your mind for the general sessions to come, but also an indispensible set of futuring skills to add to your professional portfolio. Learn more about Master Courses here.

Books Are Back!

We are pleased to announce the return of the on-site Futurist Bookstore, a highly popular meeting and browsing spot at previous conferences. And it will be better than ever! In addition to the latest in important futurist literature, the Futurist Bookstore will also carry many of the titles that WorldFuture 2012 presenters will be referencing during their sessions.

The Futurist Bookstore will also host our popular Meet-the-Author sessions, where you will be able to exchange ideas with many of the published authors participating at WorldFuture 2012.

With our partner, Training Systems Inc., the Futurist Bookstore will provide you the best possible resource for filling your own "futures syllabus"!

Attention Leaders: What Your Team Will Get from WorldFuture 2012

World Future Society conferences are not just an average training session. Rather than mastering a suite of specialized software tools or even a new marketing strategy, successful organizations require a more advanced and nuanced set of skills from their key personnel.

WorldFuture 2012 will empower your staff to identify weak signals, assess new ideas in the context of macrotrends, filter through the noise to better judge what truly matters to your organization, and make valuable and diverse contacts with individuals and institutions in a uniquely forward-thinking setting. It’s like sending your team to Visionary School.

Please contact Society headquarters if you would like to register a group of individuals at the special Members’ rate. Call 1-800-989-8274.

Download the latest preliminary program. [PDF-updated]

Save even more off the conference registration by becoming a member of the World Future Society, which entitles you to discounts on WFS events, a one-year subscription to THE FUTURIST magazine, and six free special reports.

Learn about the trends changing the future and make a better tomorrow, today!

What’s in THE FUTURIST magazine?

A selection of articles, special reports, and other future-focused material on our Web site that you might have missed. Join now at www.wfs.org/renew.

The Abundance Builders

By Peter H. Diamandis and Steven Kotler

Progress occurs when inventive people solve problems and create opportunities. Here, Peter Diamandis (left) and best-selling science writer Steven Kotler present just a few of the breakthroughs that offer the brightest prospects for a future that leaves austerity and deprivation behind. Read more.

The Secret Life of Data In the Year 2020

By Brian David Johnson

Author Brian David Johnson, a futurist for Intel, shows how geotags, sensor outputs, and big data are changing the future. He argues that we need a better understanding of our relationship with the data we produce in order to build the future we want. Read more.

The Individual in a Networked World: Two Scenarios

By Lee Rainie and Barry Wellman

Collaborative agent bots? A walled world under constant surveillance? Two information technology experts parse the future of human–network interaction. Read more.

Plus...

From Smart House to Networked Home

By Chris Carbone and Kristin Nauth

Two foresight specialists describe how tomorrow’s integrated, networked, and aware home systems may change your family life. Read more.

Building and Connecting Communities for the Future

By Center for Communities of the Future

The economic-development profession can be a positive force for change in communities as we transition from a materialistic economy to a transformational society. Read more.

Integrated and Innovative: The Future of Regions

By John M. Eger

Challenges facing city and regional governments today may spur a movement toward improving the creative resources of tomorrow’s citizens. Investing in the arts may help communities capitalize on shifting paradigms. Read more.

Revolutionary Health: Local Solutions for Global Health Problems

By Rick Docksai

Better health care doesn’t have to be costlier, as a number of innovative health practitioners are showing. In India, Venezuela, and elsewhere, the strategic use of technology, community involvement, and resource reallocations are enabling health-care providers to treat more patients more effectively, all while spending less money. Read more.

Visions: Preview of Future Inventions

By Kenneth J. Moore

Futurists: BetaLaunch, the World Future Society’s second annual innovation competition, will allow WorldFuture 2012 attendees to preview a few of the life-changing and society-altering artifacts of the future. Read more.

And MANY more stories.

June 2012, Vol. 13, No. 6

Predicting Your Future Location Years in Advance

University of Rochester computer scientist Adam Sadilek has developed a system that can, under certain conditions, predict the location of an individual years in advance. The breakthrough is possible, in part, because of the wide and growing adoption of GPS-enabled smartphones. Almost 50% of the U.S. population now carries a GPS device of some sort, according to the Pew Internet and American Life Project.

Sadilek evaluated a large dataset consisting of 703 subjects (carrying GPS devices) over a variety of different time periods and collected more than 30,000 daily samples.

"While your location in the distant future is in general highly independent of your recent location, as we will see, it is likely to be a good predictor of your location exactly one week from now. Therefore, we view long-term prediction as a process that identifies strong motifs and regularities in subjects’ historical data, models their evolution over time, and estimates future locations by projecting the patterns into the future," Sadilek writes.

The system, called Far Out, could be used to map future traffic congestion, disease spread, and electricity demand. Sadilek will present his paper at the Association for the Advancement of Artificial Intelligence 2012 conference in July.

Source: "Far Out: Predicting Long-Term Human Mobility" by Adam Sadilek and Jon Krumm, Association for the Advancement of Artificial Intelligence, 2012. PDF

What Does Climate Change Have to Do with the Price of Corn in Iowa?

Check off another box on the list of climate change’s impacts: commodity crop price volatility. "Even one or two degrees of global warming is likely to substantially increase heat waves that lead to low-yield years and more price volatility," says Noah Diffenbaugh, a researcher at the Stanford Woods Institute for the Environment and one of the authors of a recent Nature Climate Change paper on how climate change will impact commodity markets.

Government will also affect price volatility through such policies as promoting the use of corn as a renewable fuel source. The corn market will be less resilient if bound by the biofuels mandate, so any yield fluctuations will drive up prices even more.

Nudging the U.S. corn belt northward to a little below the Canadian border could help avoid excessive heat that would devastate corn crops and impact of market prices. Alternatively, the corn could stay in place—as long as new varieties are bred with increased heat tolerance of at least 6 degrees Fahrenheit.

The government’s attempts to curb the causes of climate change might have costly unintended effects, although less costly than the impact of climate change itself. In a recent survey by Jon Krosnick at the Stanford Woods Institute for the Environment, most responders favor federal tax breaks for companies producing alternative energies (wind, water, and solar). But with the politically charged topic on the table during the presidential race, only 62% of Americans say they support government action to address climate change—a drop from 72% in the survey’s 2010 iteration.

This reversal in public sentiment is out of step with growing consensus on global climate change among scientists. According to a recent Yale survey, more than 90% of climate scientists now agree on the existence of man-made global warming.

Sources: Stanford University and Yale Forum on Climate Change and the Media

Machines That Can Read Between the Lines

In the military, lives depend on human leaders getting messages and understanding them in full. Unfortunately, defense operators and analysts receive huge volumes of data from many sources, and written texts’ meanings are not always obvious. Important information may not be explicitly stated, key details may be unclear, and there may only be indirect references to important activities and objects.

Under deadline pressure, the readers may miss important points. Now, a new “natural-language processing” computer program could help human leaders to cut through the haze.

The U.S. Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) is creating a Deep Exploration and Filtering of Text (DEFT) program that will read documents and understand inferred meaning from them far more quickly than a human reader could.

Defense analysts who use this program will be able to investigate and process far more documents in less time; they’ll also be able to discover important but implicitly expressed information in the documents. The system will identify connections among documents, filter redundancies, and infer implicit information, all of which will ease planning and decision making.

Source: DARPA

U.S. Census Improves in Accuracy

In its post-enumeration surveys, the U.S. Census Bureau reports that it achieved near-zero overcounting of the nation’s population in the 2010 Census. The net overcount of 0.01% (representing 36,000 people) improves upon the 2000 Census overcount of 0.49% and the 1990 Census undercount of 1.61%.

The survey sampled the 300.7 million Americans living in housing units (excluding nursing homes, college dorms, and other group quarters) and matched responses to the Census in order to estimate errors. These errors may include omissions, duplications, imputable demographic characteristics, and fictitious responses.

Post-enumeration surveys are part of the Census Bureau’s strategy to improve its data collection. Other efforts involve evaluating Census operations and data-collection processes and comparing other methods for estimating population size. The goal is to improve Census processes (and the resulting data) for the 2020 Census.

"On this one evaluation—the net undercount of the total population—this was an outstanding census," says Census Bureau Director Robert Groves. "When this fact is added to prior positive evaluations, the American public can be proud of the 2010 Census their participation made possible."

A remaining challenge to Census accuracy is reaching the nation’s harder-to-count renters and minority populations, says Groves.

Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census

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Why Should You Book Your Registration for WorldFuture 2012 Today?

Don’t miss your chance to meet visionaries and thought leaders shaping our understanding of the future, such as Lee Rainie, director of the Pew Research Center’s Internet & American Life Project; Brian David Johnson, Intel Futurist; Geordie Rose, creator of the D-Wave One, the world’s first commercial quantum computer, and named Canadian Innovator of the Year for 2011 by the National Post; Edie Weiner, president of Weiner, Edrich, Brown, Inc., and co-author of Future Think; Naveen Jain, founder of Moon Express; Josh Schonwald, journalist and author of the forthcoming book The Taste of Tomorrow: Dispatches from the Future of Food; and John Smart, head of the Accelerating Studies Foundation and the Brain Preservation Foundation.

View invitation from WFS board member Mylena Pierremont:

Download the latest preliminary program. [PDF-updated]

Register by June 29 and save $50 dollars!

Save even more off the conference registration by becoming a member of the World Future Society, which entitles you to discounts on WFS events, a one-year subscription to THE FUTURIST magazine, and six free special reports.

Learn about the trends changing the future and make a better tomorrow, today!

What’s in THE FUTURIST magazine? (Members Only)

A selection of articles, special reports, and other future-focused material on our Web site that you might have missed. Members may sign in to read and comment. Not a member? Join now at www.wfs.org/renew.

A Thousand Years Young

By Aubrey de Grey

An "anti-aging activist" identifies the medical and biochemical advances that could eventually eliminate all the wear and tear that our bodies and minds suffer as we grow old. Those who undergo continuous repair treatments could live for millennia, remain healthy throughout, and never fear dying of old age. Read more.

Engineering the Future of Food

By Josh Schonwald

Tomorrow’s genetically modified food and farmed fish will be more sustainable and far healthier than much of what we eat today—if we can overcome our fears and embrace it. Here’s how one foodie learned to stop worrying and love "Frankenfood." Read more.

The Future of the Commercial Sex Industry

By Emily Empel

As new technologies impact the products and services of the sex industry, other businesses will find new opportunities in the world’s oldest professions. Read more.

Anticipating an "Anything Goes" World of Online Porn

By Roger Howard

Increased exposure to more-intensive pornographic imagery and content online will make future generations less sensitive to its effects. Read more.

What’s in THE FUTURIST magazine? (Public)

VISIONS: Futurists Review the 2012 Consumer Electronics Show

By Patrick Tucker and Thomas Frey

Two Futurist editors rate the gadgets that may soon make a big difference in our lives. Read more.

To Predict or to Build the Future? Reflections on the Field and Differences between Foresight and La Prospective

By Michel Godet

A pioneer from the French school of la prospective discusses the development of futures-studies methodologies and the imperative of making methods accessible to all. Read more.

May 2012, Vol. 13, No. 5

Why Lean and Hungry Entrepreneurs Succeed

The adage that "success breeds success" may not hold true for new start-up companies. Entrepreneurs starting with less personal liquidity may in fact be more resourceful, cautious, and successful, according to a study of Norwegian entrepreneurs.

Finance professors Jarle Møen (Norwegian School of Economics) and Hans K. Hvide (University of Aberdeen) found that entrepreneurs in the top quartile of personal wealth fared worse in terms of profit than those with fewer assets. They theorize that, because financial freedom offers a buffer against poor performance, the wealthier entrepreneurs are often more experimental and less intimidated by the need for large profits.

Less-wealthy entrepreneurs, on the other hand, work with less room for error. They may also be more receptive to financial advice from investors and from the lenders looking over their shoulders, the researchers suggest.

"Normally, banks and co-investors will serve as a corrective, and the more risk you take, the more critical they will be," says Møen. "If you finance the whole thing yourself, you can simply start up--and are often a bit too optimistic. … It has been normal to see a lack of capital as an obstacle to entrepreneurship and innovation. Our findings nuance this picture. If new businesses are not disciplined by a certain scarcity of capital, both the entrepreneur and investors should be very much on the alert."

Source: Norwegian School of Economics

Seeing Coastal Erosion Before It Happens

British researchers expect climate change to alter Great Britain's coastal areas, but they don't know for sure what the change will look like or how severe it will be. A four-year collaborative model endeavor, the iCoast Project, may provide definitive answers.

The project brings together researchers from across Great Britain to build models that will simulate what Great Britain's coastlines will look like up to 100 years into the future.

Britain's coastal areas are more prone to flooding and erosion than are the shorelines of inland rivers and lakes, according to the researchers, who anticipate even greater wear and tear upon the coasts this century due to climate change and sediment starvation. Science has greatly improved its abilities to analyze and forecast such coastal landscape changes in the last few years, they add.

The iCoast simulations will develop new models that could accurately portray key variables such as the directions of tidal waves, patterns of storm weather, and the overall sensitivity of the shorelines. Researchers will use this knowledge to more effectively manage risks of flooding and erosion.

The project will take an estimated four years to complete and will cost £2.9 million, with funding provided by Britain's Natural Environment Research Council. Britain's Environment Agency (EA) is also partnering on the project.

Source: University of Southampton

The Future of Predictive Analytics Is Bright

Predictive Analytics World kicked off its inaugural Toronto conference April 25 and 26, bringing together data scientists from around the world. "We are in the midst of a paradigm shift from behavior prediction to influence prediction," said conference chair and founder Eric Siegel.

Predictive analytics uses customer monitoring and data collection to improve marketing efforts and profitability. The field has grown steadily as a result of the ease of online tracking, but commercial use of predictive analytics dates back to 1903, when statistician Robert Fisher invented the credit score.

Takeaway findings from Predictive Analytics World Toronto:

  • A Norwegian telecom named Telenor used predictive analytics to predict which customers would drop their telecom contract if they were contacted for marketing purposes. The company reduced churn (customer unsubscribes) by 36% as a result, and the campaign return on investment increased by a factor of 11. (Using predictive analytics, researchers also discovered that a cell phone customer is 700% more likely to cancel if someone in his or her social network does.)
  • MTV learned to predict which words in tweets and Facebook posts would produce the biggest viral reaction. When it implemented the new strategy around the launch of the Video Music Awards, MTV.com saw a 40% increase in hourly unique visits, a 55% increase in hourly page views, and a 36% gain in video views; it also set a new Twitter tweets per second record on a given subject: 8,868. "Lady Gaga" tweets drove 40% of incremental MTV.com traffic.
  • The salary for statisticians will go up two to three times in the next few years, largely as a result in the growth of unstructured data from social media channels, according to IBM.

Source: Predictive Analytics World

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Why Should You Book Your Registration for WorldFuture 2012 Today?

Don't miss your chance to meet visionaries and thought leaders shaping our understanding of the future, such as Lee Rainie, director of the Pew Research Center's Internet & American Life Project; Brian David Johnson, Intel Futurist; Geordie Rose, creator of the D-Wave One, the world's first commercial quantum computer, named Canadian Innovator of the Year for 2011 by the National Post; Edie Weiner, president of Weiner, Edrich, Brown, Inc., and co-author of Future Think; Naveen Jain, founder of Moon Express; Josh Schonwald, journalist and author of the forthcoming book The Taste of Tomorrow: Dispatches from the Future of Food; and John Smart, head of the Accelerating Studies Foundation and the Brain Preservation Foundation.

Get up close and personal with inventions and inventors who are defining innovation for the new decade, such as the makers of the Life Technologies Ion Proton™ Sequencer (pictured), which can read your genome (all 3 billion base pairs) in one day for $1,000.

Learn more or register today!

A Futurist's Summer Reading List

Prepare for WorldFuture 2012 by catching up on the latest futurist books on such topics as education, social networking, resource management, and food technology. Many of the authors of these books will be attending or speaking at the World Future Society's annual meeting in Toronto. Read more about their sessions in the preliminary program, and make sure you're registered for the conference to meet the authors this summer!

Networked: The New Social Operating System
Lee Rainie (Opening Plenary Session: Future of the Internet) and Barry Wellman
Networked takes a look at how social networks enable learning, problem solving, decision making, and personal interaction, as well as at the challenges the networks pose.

Screen Future
Brian David Johnson (Opening Plenary Session: Waking Up the Algorithm)
Screen Future explores how the personal devices we will have in the future are being shaped by people, technology, and economics.

Flash Forward! Rethinking Learning
Karen Grose (Education Summit)
Flash Forward presents educational practices that address the challenges of today's education system.

Reinventing Life: A Guide to Our Evolutionary Future
Jeffrey Scott Coker (Session: Reinventing Life: A Guide to Our Evolutionary Future)
Reinventing Life discusses how society is rapidly—and radically—changing the biology of life and our responsibility as evolutionary stewards.

The Biggest Wake Up Call in History
Richard Slaughter (Session: Global MegaCrisis: How Bad Will It Get? What Strategies?)
The imbalance between our way of life and the Earth's natural limits cannot keep up forever, Slaughter warns in this provocative book.

How Asia Can Shape the World—From the Era of Plenty to the Era of Scarcities
Joergen Oerstroem Moeller (Session: Asian Economies over the Next Decade)
How Asia Can Shape the World details the economic and social impacts of Asia's growth in the coming decades.

Granddad's Farmhouse Porch Stories
Don C. Davis (Session: The Future We Ask For)
Granddad's Farmhouse Porch Stories is a collection of classic faith stories retold with a focus on the technology and global family of tomorrow.

The Taste of Tomorrow: Dispatches from the Future of Food
Josh Schonwald (Session: Cobia or Barramundi? And Other Choices on Tomorrow's Menu)
The Taste of Tomorrow takes a look at the people, trends, and technologies that will create the food we eat in the future.

What’s in THE FUTURIST magazine? (Members Only)

A selection of articles, special reports, and other future-focused material on our Web site that you might have missed. Members may sign in to read and comment. Not a member? Join now at /renew.

A Thousand Years Young

By Aubrey de Grey

An "anti-aging activist" identifies the medical and biochemical advances that could eventually eliminate all the wear and tear that our bodies and minds suffer as we grow old. Those who undergo continuous repair treatments could live for millennia, remain healthy throughout, and never fear dying of old age. Read more.

Engineering the Future of Food

By Josh Schonwald

Tomorrow's genetically modified food and farmed fish will be more sustainable and far healthier than much of what we eat today—if we can overcome our fears and embrace it. Here's how one foodie learned to stop worrying and love "Frankenfood." Read more.

The Future of the Commercial Sex Industry

By Emily Empel

As new technologies impact the products and services of the sex industry, other businesses will find new opportunities in the world's oldest professions. Read more.

Anticipating an "Anything Goes" World of Online Porn

By Roger Howard

Increased exposure to more-intensive pornographic imagery and content online will make future generations less sensitive to its effects. Read more.

What’s in THE FUTURIST magazine? (Public)

VISIONS: Futurists Review the 2012 Consumer Electronics Show

By Patrick Tucker and Thomas Frey

Two Futurist editors rate the gadgets that may soon make a big difference in our lives. Read more.

To Predict or to Build the Future? Reflections on the Field and Differences between Foresight and La Prospective

By Michel Godet

A pioneer from the French school of la prospective discusses the development of futures-studies methodologies and the imperative of making methods accessible to all. Read more.

April 2012, Vol. 13., No. 4

  • Should We Get Rid of Middle School?
  • New Wireless Sensor Could Enhance Post-Surgery Treatment Follow-Up
  • Envisioning a Blind-Friendly Internet
  • White House Announces $200 Million For Big Data Research
  • What’s in THE FUTURIST magazine

Should We Get Rid of Middle School?

Students who move to new schools for grades six or seven exhibit disproportionately lower math and reading scores and form an unusually large percentage of the students who drop out of high school (compared with kids who attended kindergarten through eighth grade schools prior to high school). These achievement drop-offs equate to losing between three and a half and seven months of expected learning, according to a survey of all Florida public schools conducted by Harvard researchers Martin West and Guido Schwerdt. The effects are more pronounced among students who switch in seventh grade, and are severest in urban districts and among African American students.

Nor do the students ever fully recover. Compared with students who never changed schools, they still averaged lower math and reading scores by the end of their eighth-grade year. Furthermore, their probability of dropping out of high school by grade 10 was 18% higher. West and Schwerdt say that their findings vindicate K-8 schools, which instruct students continuously from kindergarten to eighth grade.

Source: Harvard

New Wireless Sensor Could Enhance Post-Surgery Treatment Follow-Up

A prototype micro-scale wireless sensor could give surgeons better and timelier imaging of a patient’s physical condition after an operation than even the best X-rays and MRIs. Developed by engineers at the Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute engineers, the sensor—which measures just 4 millimeters in length and 500 microns in width—would be implanted into the surgical site by being fitted atop any one of the commonly used orthopedic musculoskeletal implants that patients might receive, such as plates, prostheses, or rods. Once in place, the sensor would transmit data wirelessly, with no radiation, battery power, or electricity inside the body required, to an external receptor device. Compared to the existing imaging equipment, this sensor bodes to be less invasive and, thanks to its compactness and few parts, less costly.

Additionally, it would be much more reliable and accurate. Surgeons who use it would gain streams of accurate measurements of the healing site’s strain, pressure, temperature, and other indicators. This information would enable them to gauge more precisely whether a patient is healing properly and when he or she is able to resume work and daily activities. Eric Ledet, the Rennsselaer assistant professor of biomedical engineering who is leading the project, has spent five years developing it and is optimistic about its progress. He is currently obtaining a patent and is looking for ways to mass-produce it.

Source: Rensselaer

Envisioning a Blind-Friendly Internet

For all the multimedia wonders of the Internet, the vast store of information, knowledge, and connections it contains is largely based on graphics and text—visual input that is inaccessible to the visually impaired. Now, an information-studies scholar who is blind aims to make the Internet more universally available.

Blind and sighted users organize their online tasks and process information differently. Thus, text-based search tools such as tags are not particularly useful to the visually impaired, says Rakesh Babu, an assistant professor in the University of Wisconsin–Milwaukee’s School of Information Studies. (Babu himself lost his vision to a degenerative eye disease.)

Screen readers provide digitized voice translations of text, but they produce a linear online experience that cannot keep pace with a nonlinear visual experience comprising color cues, animations, and text that can be quickly scanned.

Babu’s research is focusing on understanding the differences in how blind users conceptualize online tasks compared with sighted users; this includes not just information gathering, but also communicating and engaging in activities that are already available to sighted users—and are vital to career prospects and to independent living.

“Web accessibility is not a legal issue; it’s an equal opportunity issue,” says Babu. “When you sit down to design a Web site, you have to think, how would a screen reader read my Web site? You need to be user-centered from the beginning.”

Source: University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee

Watch a demo by Rakesh Babu on YouTube

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Why Should You Book Your Registration for WorldFuture 2012 Today?

Don't miss your chance to meet visionaries and thought leaders shaping our understanding of the future such as Lee Rainie, director of the Pew Research Center's Internet & American Life Project; Brian David Johnson, Intel Futurist; Geordie Rose, creator of the D-Wave One, the world's first commercial quantum computer, named Canadian Innovator of the Year for 2011 by the National Post; Edie Weiner, president of Weiner, Edrich, Brown, Inc., and co-author of Future Think; Naveen Jain, founder of Moon Express; Josh Schonwald, journalist and author of the forthcoming book The Taste of Tomorrow: Dispatches from the Future of Food; and John Smart, head of the Accelerating Studies Foundation and the Brain Preservation Foundation.

Get up close and personal with inventions and inventors who are defining innovation for the new decade, such as the makers of the Life Technologies Ion Proton™ Sequencer (pictured), which can read your genome (all 3 billion base pairs) in one day for $1,000.

Learn more or register today!

White House Announces $200 Million For Big Data Research

The Obama administration will allocate $200 million to new and ongoing science initiatives to collect and interpret extremely large, structured and unstructured data sets. The recipients of the funds include NASA, for a wide range of activities including using satellite data to predict the impact of forest fires; the Department of Veterans Affairs, and the National Institutes of Health (NIH), among others.

The amount of potentially useful data, particularly in terms of health, has grown exponentially over the past several decades, said NIH director Francis Collins, and the costs associated with collecting such data continue to decrease. In terms of human genome sequencing, in particular, “the average cost has fallen from $400 million in 2003 to less than $8000, today,” said Collins in a press conference on Friday, (March 30.) “So this is a real challenge.”

Collins announced that NIH will publish 200 terebytes of genomic data, a storehouse roughly equivalent to 16 million file cabinets, to the cloud through Amazon Web Services as part of the 1000 Genomes Project.

The largest recipient of funds will be the U.S. Department of Defense. “The data being brought to bear on Department of Defense operations, the data collected is often imperfect, incomplete, and heterogeneous…the share volume of info is creating background clutter, making it hard to identify the data we need to see,” said Kaigham “Ken” Gabriel, acting head of the Defense Advanced Projects Research Agency (DARPA).

Source: The White House Blog, The White House fact sheet on big data in government, PDF

What’s in THE FUTURIST magazine? (Members Only)

A selection of articles, special reports, and other future-focused material on our Web site that you might have missed. Members may sign in to read and comment. Not a member? Join now at http://www.wfs.org/renew.

Thriving in the Automated Economy

By Erik Brynjolfsson and Andrew McAfee

Two management experts show why labor’s race against automation will only be won if we partner with our machines. They advise government regulators not to stand in the way of human–machine innovation. Read more.

A World Wide Mind: The Coming Collective Telempathy

By Michael Chorost

The Internet plus humanity equals hyperorganism, a merger of man and machine that may result in global mindfulness. Read more.

Nuclear Power’s Unsettled Future

By Ozzie Zehner

A year after the Fukushima Daiichi disaster in Japan, prospects for the nuclear power industry worldwide are far from certain. An energy policy scholar assesses the key economic, environmental, political, and psychological hinges on which nuclear power’s future now swings. Read more

A Future of Fewer Words?: Five Trends Shaping the Future of Language

By Lawrence Baines

Natural selection is as much a phenomenon in human language as it is in natural ecosystems. An ongoing “survival of the fittest” may lead to continuing expansion of image-based communications and the extinction of more than half the world’s languages by this century’s end. Read more.

Visions: Toward Better Space-Weather Forecasts

By Cynthia G. Wagner

Scientists hope to help avert devastating impacts of solar outbursts. Read more.

March 2012, Vol. 13., No. 3

  • Robot Ants Invade Factories to Boost Efficiency
  • Dispatch from the Big Data Frontier
  • Generation “Always On“
  • WorldFuturist.net Seeks Input from Young Futurists
  • What’s in THE FUTURIST magazine

Robot Ants Invade Factories to Boost Efficiency

Robotic vehicles at the Fraunhofer Institute for Material Flow and Logistics IML, in Dortmund, Germany, can mimic the thinking of ants, almost. Multishuttle Moves®, as the machines are known, use processors modeled after ants’ brains and body systems to independently navigate a warehouse, identify items to pick up, and coordinate with each other to carry each item to its designated picking station.

Each vehicle knows what to carry and where to carry it, based on installed software that crunches “ant algorithms,“ which emulate the actual behavior of ants searching for food. The vehicles’ software programs notify them when an order comes in, and then each vehicle interacts with the others through W-LAN to determine which vehicle will take on which task and where. The fleet increases or decreases its activity as the demands fluctuate throughout the workday.

Their on-board navigation systems also enable each vehicle to move freely without crashing into any objects or, for that matter, other vehicles. And via their scanners for location, acceleration, and distance, the vehicles independently calculate the shortest routes to any destination.

Fraunhofer’s researchers, who built a fleet of 50 of these robots in partnership with robotics firm Dematic, said that this suite of capabilities makes them far more efficient and economical than traditional, human-driven vehicles. Following further testing and development, the researchers said, autonomous vehicles like them could be clearing inventory in warehouses throughout Germany and beyond.

Source: Fraunhofer

Dispatch from the Big Data Frontier

More than 2,500 data scientists, business executives, and number crunchers gathered in Santa Clara, California, last week for the O’Reilly Strata conference. Speakers included Jonathan Bruner of Forbes, Ed Kohlwey of Booz Allen Hamilton, Coco Krumme of the MIT Media Lab, and Hal Varian, chief economist of Google, among many others. A full brief is available on THE FUTURIST magazine blog. Some key highlights and insights include:

Query volume on the term “Sign up for unemployment“ can predict future unemployment claims with a high degree of accuracy one week before official numbers are released from the U.S. government, according to Google’s Hal Varian.

David Vogel and his “Market Makers” team won the second milestone competition (as well as the first funding round last fall) in Dr. Richard Merkin’s Heritage Health Prize. The competition “challenges participants to train algorithms to predict the likelihood of a patient being hospitalized in the next year, based on that patient’s medical records.“

Coupon and rebate search queries are an excellent predictor of weak economic times ahead, a Google study found.

Jonathan Gosier’s MetaLayer site (in private beta) won the start-up showcase. MetaLayer aims to help people with little training create interesting visualizations (charts and graphs) from large public data sets such as Twitter trends.

“The exabyte age will bring with it the twin challenges of information overload and overconsumption, both of which will require organizations of all sizes to use the emerging toolboxes for filtering, analysis and action. To create public good from public goods — the public sector data that governments collect, the private sector data that is being collected and the social data that we generate ourselves — we will need to collectively forge new compacts that honor existing laws and visionary agreements that enable the new data science to put the data to work,” said O’Reilly’s Alex Howard in a white paper, “Data for the Public Good,” timed to go out with the conference.

Sources: Learn more about the conference and watch videos here.

Download the free white paper, Data for the Public Good here

Read THE FUTURIST magazine brief: “The Three Things You Need to Know About Big Data, Right Now” here

Generation “Always On”

The Internet may be a mixed blessing for younger generations, whose brains are being irrevocably altered by their relationship with the medium, warn more than half of the respondents to a new survey from the Pew Research Center.

While fleetly multitasking and instantly gratifying every info-whim simultaneously posting Facebook updates, texting their sweethearts, researching history assignments, streaming live concerts, and Skyping friends—today’s average teenagers may be turning themselves into shallow thinkers and impatient adults, warn some of the experts surveyed.

On the other hand, “quick-twitch” thinking may become a key survival skill for this hyperconnected, “always on ” generation, others believe.

“The essential skills [of 2020] will be those of rapidly searching, browsing, assessing quality, and synthesizing the vast quantities of information,” said Microsoft researcher Jonathan Grudin. “In contrast, the ability to read one thing and think hard about it for hours will not be of no consequence, but it will be of far less consequence for most people.”

These responses came from the fifth “Future of the Internet“ survey of more than 1,000 Internet experts and other users, fielded by Elon University’s Imagining the Internet Center and the Pew Research Center’s Internet & American Life Project.

Source: “Millennials Will Benefit and Suffer Due to Their Hyperconnected Lives“ by Janna Anderson and Lee Rainie, Pew Internet.

WorldFuturist.net Seeks Input from Young Futurists

WorldFuturist.net, a Web site for future-focused kids aged 8-18, is seeking submissions in the following categories: future predictions, future scenarios, utopian visions, alternative lifestyles, science fiction, science fiction book reviews, science fiction video game reviews, science fiction movie reviews, science and technology news reports, scifi drawings, and futuristic videos according to the site's creator, FUTURIST magazine blogger and IEET managing director Hank Pellissier.

WorldFuturist.net is also looking for regular contributors aged 13-18 who want to be columnists, critics, and news reporters on topics ranging from Neanderthal studies to black holes.

All material published by WorldFuturist.net will include the author's name, photo, and biography. WorldFuturist.net is sponsored by the California registered non-profit, The Kids' Co-op, Inc. Official launch is April 15, 2012. Directors include Gabriel Rothblatt, Nikki Olson, and Hank Pellissier. To submit material or make inquiries, contact hankpellissier(at)yahoo.com

Source: IEET on Facebook

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Why Should You Book Your Registration for WorldFuture 2012 Today?

Don't miss your chance to meet visionaries and thought leaders shaping our understanding of the future such as Lee Rainie, director of the Pew Research Center’s Internet & American Life Project; Brian David Johnson, Intel Futurist; Geordie Rose, creator of the D-Wave One, the world’s first commercial quantum computer, named Canadian Innovator of the Year for 2011 by the National Post; Edie Weiner, president of Weiner, Edrich, Brown, Inc., and co-author of Future Think; Naveen Jain, founder of Moon Express; Josh Schonwald, journalist and author of the forthcoming book The Taste of Tomorrow: Dispatches from the Future of Food; and John Smart, head of the Accelerating Studies Foundation and the Brain Preservation Foundation.

Get up close and personal with inventions and inventors who are defining innovation for the new decade, such as the makers of the Life Technologies Ion Proton™ Sequencer (pictured), which can read your genome (all 3 billion base pairs) in one day for $1,000.

Learn more or register today!

What’s in THE FUTURIST magazine? (Members Only)

A selection of articles, special reports, and other future-focused material on our Web site that you might have missed. Members may sign in to read and comment. Not a member? Join now at http://www.wfs.org/renew.

Thriving in the Automated Economy

By Erik Brynjolfsson and Andrew McAfee

Two management experts show why labor’s race against automation will only be won if we partner with our machines. They advise government regulators not to stand in the way of human–machine innovation. Read more.

A World Wide Mind: The Coming Collective Telempathy

By Michael Chorost

The Internet plus humanity equals hyperorganism, a merger of man and machine that may result in global mindfulness. Read more.

Nuclear Power’s Unsettled Future

By Ozzie Zehner

A year after the Fukushima Daiichi disaster in Japan, prospects for the nuclear power industry worldwide are far from certain. An energy policy scholar assesses the key economic, environmental, political, and psychological hinges on which nuclear power’s future now swings. Read more

A Future of Fewer Words?: Five Trends Shaping the Future of Language

By Lawrence Baines

Natural selection is as much a phenomenon in human language as it is in natural ecosystems. An ongoing “survival of the fittest” may lead to continuing expansion of image-based communications and the extinction of more than half the world’s languages by this century’s end. Read more.

February 2012, Vol. 13, No. 2

  • Too Much Passenger Screening Is Making Airports Less Secure
  • Reducing Inequality in Europe Could Boost Growth
  • Tornadoes of the Past Offer Clues of Tornadoes to Come
  • Visionaries And Inventors to Gather in Toronto
  • IBM Gets Atoms to Remember Data
  • What’s in THE FUTURIST magazine

Too Much Passenger Screening Is Making Airports Less Secure

Ever stricter security measures in place in U.S. airports is making air travel less safe and airports more vulnerable, according to University of Illinois mathematics professor Sheldon H. Jacobson. The reason is too many resources are spent screening passengers who pose little risk, which steals time and money away from identifying real threats.

“A natural tendency, when limited information is available about from where the next threat will come, is to overestimate the overall risk in the system,” says Jacobson in a press release. “This actually makes the system less secure by over-allocating security resources to those in the system that are low on the risk scale relative to others in the system.”

Jacobson recommends airports work to distinguish high-risk from lower-risk passengers before subjecting every flier (and all that baggage) to zealous screening. More programs like the TSA’s Pre-Check, which expedites screening for eligible passengers by rating their risk against that of entire flying population, would help airports perceive security threats more accurately. His recently published paper also explores scenarios to expose security gaps.

Sources: University of Illinois.

Addressing Passenger Risk Uncertainty for Aviation Security Screening by Adrian J. Lee and Sheldon H. Jacobson, Transportation Science (December 2011)

Reducing Inequality in Europe Could Boost Growth

Rising socioeconomic inequality is one of the major risk factors portending an insecure future, warn researchers for the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD). In a new report, OECD economists outline several policy proposals for reducing Europe’s wealth and income gap while simultaneously boosting economic growth.

First, the report recommends that governments adjust tax and benefits systems to promote “growth in the middle” i.e., reform tax codes that favor the wealthy, thus enabling tax burdens on struggling middle-income taxpayers to be reduced.

The 25% wage gap between temporary and permanent workers could also be reduced by offering more protections for temporary workers. Women’s labor-force participation could be increased with the provision of more affordable child care. And improving educational opportunities and outcomes for immigrants and disadvantaged groups will have long-term benefits to the economy, such as enhancing the quality of the labor force, according to the report.

“The main challenge facing governments today is implementing reforms that get growth back on track, put people to work and reduce the widening income gap,” concludes OECD chief economist Pier Carlo Padoan.

Source: Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development

Tornadoes of the Past Offer Clues of Tornadoes to Come

People in the path of a tornado don’t typically know it’s coming until minutes before it arrives. But a new tornado prediction model could give them as much as a month or more of prior notice.

The model’s debut is particularly timely, as climate experts expect climate warming to intensify tornado activity. U.S. deaths due to tornado activity last year exceeded all tornado-related deaths for the prior 10 years combined. It is not conclusive that global warming is to blame, but the index’s authors hope that their model could help researchers find out for sure.

Meanwhile, NOAA tornado expert Harold Brooks is optimistic that the index will minimize future injuries and deaths. With advance warning, communities and relief agencies will have time to gather needed supplies, he says.

Source: Columbia University.

Why Should You Book Your Registration for WorldFuture 2012, Today?

Don’t miss your chance to meet visionaries and thought leaders shaping our understanding of the future such as Lee Rainie, director of the Pew Research Center’s Internet & American Life Project; Brian David Johnson, Intel Futurist; Geordie Rose, creator of the D-Wave One, the world’s first commercial quantum computer, named Canadian Innovator of the Year for 2011 by the National Post; Edie Weiner, president of Weiner, Edrich, Brown, Inc., and co-author of Future Think; Naveen Jain, founder of Moon Express; Josh Schonwald, journalist and author of the forth-coming book The Taste of Tomorrow: Dispatches from the Future of Food; and John Smart, head of the Accelerating Studies Foundation and the Brain Preservation Foundation.

Get up close and personal with inventions and inventors who are defining innovation for the new decade, such as the makers of the Life Technologies Ion Proton™ Sequencer, which can read your genome (all 3 million base pairs) in one day for $1,000.

Register today!

IBM Gets Atoms to Remember Data

Researchers at IBM have succeeded in encoding data in just 12 magnetic atoms, an enormous improvement over conventional disk drives that use as many as 100 atoms to store a single bit of Information. The accomplishment could lead to future breakthroughs in nanocomputation and computer efficiency.

To make it happen, the IBM team had to look beyond the traditional silicon transistor and get specially magnetized atoms to “hold” information by spinning in one of two directions, to represent either ”1” or “0.”

“The chip industry will continue its pursuit of incremental scaling in semiconductor technology but, as components continue to shrink, the march continues to the inevitable end point: the atom. We’re taking the opposite approach and starting with the smallest unit — single atoms — to build computing devices one atom at a time, ” said project leader Andreas Heinrich in a press release.

Source: IBM

Call for Papers: Conference Essay Collection

The World Future Society will publish a collection of essays in conjunction with WorldFuture 2012: Dream. Design. Develop. Deliver, to be held July 27-29, 2012, in Toronto.

This collection will be published in a special edition of World Future Review, the journal of the Society’s Professional Membership program, and will be made available to all conference registrants.

Deadline for completed papers is February 20, 2012.

Guidelines

What’s in THE FUTURIST magazine? (Members Only)

A selection of articles, special reports, and other future-focused material on our Web site that you might have missed. Members may sign in to read and comment. Not a member? Join now at http://www.wfs.org/renew.

Thriving in the Automated Economy

By Erik Brynjolfsson and Andrew McAfee

Two management experts show why labor’s race against automation will only be won if we partner with our machines. They advise government regulators not to stand in the way of human–machine innovation. Read more.

Hard at Work in the Jobless Future

By James Lee

Jobs are disappearing, but there’s still a future for work. An investment manager looks at how automation and information technology are changing the economic landscape and forcing workers to forge new career paths beyond outdated ideas about permanent employment. Read More

What’s in THE FUTURIST magazine? (Public)

Rethinking “Return on Investment:” What We Really Need to Invest In

By Timothy Mack

Innovation means more than inventing new products for the world’s growing populations to consume. Innovation also means solving the problems created by consumption. By investing in sustainable innovation and creativity now, we will enhance our future returns. Read more.

January 2012, Vol. 13, No. 1

In this issue:

  • CES: The Future is Now-ish
  • MIT Scientists Discover Memory Gene
  • January 2012 Prediction List Roundup
  • Disease Hunters Follow the Night Lights
  • Better Nanotubes for Better Electronics
  • Inventors Wanted
  • What’s in THE FUTURIST magazine

CES: The Future Is Now-ish

The annual Consumer Electronics Show (CES) storms Las Vegas this week. THE FUTURIST magazine and other members of the media received a special preview access to the more than 20,000 new products expected to launch at the event this year.

Previous CES shows saw the launch of the VCR and DVD players. According to Shawn Dubravac of the Consumer Electronics Association, more than 90% of U.S. households own a product that debuted at the world’s biggest tech show. Dubravac called 2012 the year of the interface and stressed that some of the inventions and prototypes on display won’t be commercially viable “for years.” Read more of THE FUTURIST magazine’s on-site coverage at wfs.org.

Also download a copy of Dubravac's presentation here.

MIT Scientists Discover Memory Gene

Our memories give birth to our expectations of the future; but what gives birth to memory? A group of MIT scientists led by Yingxi Lin claim to have discovered a master gene for memory encoding. The Npas4 gene is responsible for activating the genes that make memories stronger and more permanent (both synapse strength and connections between neurons). “This is a gene that can connect from experience to the eventual changing of the circuit,” says Lin.

The team found that Npas4 is heavily present in the CA3 region of the hippocampus in mice when they wandered to a part of a maze where they received a mild electric shock. The gene helped them remember to avoid that area. When the researchers removed the gene from that area of the hippocampus, the mice forgot which part of the maze was dangerous.

The ability to produce Npas4 in sufficient volume may have an effect on the study of learning and education in the future.

Source: MIT

January 2012 Prediction List Roundup

The beginning of 2012 saw the usual burst of predictions from media, industry, tech watchers, and futurists.

Declan McCullagh of the popular blog CNET forecast that “If 2011 was the Year of the hackers, 2012 may be the Year the Hackers Upset the Political Establishment.” Read more.

Daryl Lang of the Web site Breaking Copy published a self-deprecatingly titled list of “Ten Foolishly Specific Predictions for 2012,” among them: “An angry online mob forces the CEO of a Fortune 500 company to resign.” Read more.

John Brandon of Inc. magazine predicted that, by 2025, augmented reality and instantaneous language translation will be common.“ Read more.

Lance Ulanoff of Mashable announced “6 Crazy Tech Predictions for 2012,” among them: “Scientists will partner with Hollywood studios to unveil a new technology known as ‘Fresh Ends.’ Using CGI, Hollywood script writers, voice and context recognition and logic algorithms, Fresh Ends technology will generate new endings for some of the world’s most popular films. These slightly rewritten movies will be re-released to theaters—just like the 3D rereleases—and are expected to add 15- to 20% additional box office returns to each film. For now, Fresh Ends only works with movies shot digitally.“ Read more.

IBM published five predictions based on current IBM projects; they included telepathetic control of computers, the end of the digital divide, multifactor biometrics, and predictive analytics ending the days of junk mail. Read more.

Finally, social networking guru Brian Solis joined with Awareness Networks and other futurists in the release of the 2012 Social Marketing and New Media Report, packed with predictions about the future of social networks. The bottom line: “Engage or Die.” Read more (PDF).

Disease Hunters Follow the Night Lights

Public-health officials may have a new tool for fighting epidemics in developing countries, thanks to satellite images of nighttime light patterns in cities.

Researchers led by Nita Bharti of Princeton University have correlated the onset of communicable diseases such as measles with the population growth that occurs seasonally as people move from rural areas into cities. Comparing NASA night-light data with health records from Niger between 2000 and 2004, the researchers found that measles cases were more prevalent in cities’ brightest spots.

Monitoring changes in nighttime lighting will help identify hotspots for epidemics and enable public-health workers to inoculate the most vulnerable populations, the researchers believe. The night-light pattern tracking could also be used to monitor population movements during wars and natural disasters.

Source: Princeton University. The research was published in the December 9, 2011, edition of the journal Science.

Better Nanotubes for Better Electronics

A range of electronic products and solar cell technologies could become more affordable, thanks to a new manufacturing technique that expedites the production of carbon nanotubes.

These molecule-sized tube structures, which are now added to many structural materials, come in two varieties: semiconducting nanotubes, the active material in transistors and solar cells, and conducting nanotubes, used in batteries.

The current carbon nanotube manufacturing process creates conducting and semiconducting nanotubes in the same batch. They have to be separated, and this has presented a longtime “production bottleneck,” according to Stanford University chemical-engineering associate professor Zhenan Bao.

Bao has co-developed, with colleagues at the University of California–Davis and the Samsung Advanced Institute of Technology, the use of a polymer that latches onto semiconducting nanotubes but not the conducting ones.

The final polymer-fused semiconducting nanotubes are themselves useful for making lower-cost solar cells; “bendable display screens,” now increasingly featured in portable electronic devices; “stretchable electronics,” which feature in some components for advanced robots; and “circuits printed on plastics,” applications of which include transistors for flexible/foldable displays, transistors for flexible sensors and electronic skin, and circuits for printed price tags or RFIDs.

“Our simple process allows us to build useful devices very easily,” says Bao.

Source: Stanford University

Inventors Wanted

Do you have an invention or start-up that will change the world? The World Future Society has issued a call for inventions and innovations from breakthrough start-ups, who will compete in the second annual Futurists:BetaLaunch expo in Toronto next July.

Futurists:BetaLaunch (F:BL) serves as a technology expo where engineers, designers, and others can present their inventions to the 1,000 futurists expected to gather for the Society’s annual conference. Also in attendance will be venture capitalists such as Moon Express founder Naveen Jain, Netopia founder Reese Jones, and Lightspeed Venture Partners.

All inventors selected to present their inventions at F:BL will receive a complimentary registration to the WorldFuture 2012 conference ($750 value). The deadline for entry is March 15, 2012.

What’s in THE FUTURIST magazine? (Members Only)

A selection of articles, special reports, and other future-focused material on our Web site that you might have missed. Members may sign in to read and comment. Not a member? Join now at http://www.wfs.org/renew.

Crossing the Species Boundary: Genetic Engineering as Conscious Evolution

By Jeffrey Scott Coker

Genetic engineering is actually as natural as any process on Earth, and mastering it would enable us to do what microbes do trillions of times every day, but purposefully and with better results. Read more.

Outlook 2012

Environmental threats and energy source opportunities; in vivo organ and tissue printing and buildings that self-adapt to weather fluctuations. These forecasts and more appear in THE FUTURIST’s annual roundup of thought-provoking ideas. Read more.

Purchase a PDF download. Members: Login for free access. Check out Cynthia G. Wagner’s video of our the Top 10 Forecasts.

What’s in THE FUTURIST magazine? (Public)

The Best Predictions of 2011

Drawing from a variety of sources throughout the past year, the editors of THE FUTURIST take a look at some of the best predictions for the world’s future. Read more.

Innovating the Future: From Ideas to Adoption

By Peter J. Denning

Futurists and innovators can teach each other lessons to help their ideas succeed.

Visualizing Human Intention

Neuroscientists may predict what you will do before you do it. Read more.

Tomorrow in Brief

  • iGrammar: Mobile Language Lessons
  • Robotic Aides for Children with Autism
  • Glass as Waste Cleaner
  • Building Stronger Skyscrapers, Faster
  • Remote-Controlled Telescopes for Citizen Astronomers

Futurist Update 2011 Issues

Futurist Update: News and Previews from the World Future Society is a free Monthly e-mail newsletter sent to all World Future Society members. Nonmembers are welcome to sign up too! We don’t share your email address with anyone and you can unsubscribe at any time. There is no better way to experience the world of tomorrow — today.

December 2011, No. 12, Vol. 12

In this issue:

  • Anticipating “Insider Threats“
  • Instant Information Helps Consumers Make Healthier Food Choices
  • Forecasting Asia’s Growing Pains
  • Microinsuring the Future for Ethiopian Farmers
  • Inventors Wanted
  • What’s in THE FUTURIST magazine (Members Only)

Anticipating “Insider Threats”

Can treason be predicted? A team of scientists from Georgia Tech, Carnegie Mellon, and other institutions has launched a two-year, $9 million project to find out.

Principal investigator David A. Bader and his colleagues are looking to extrapolate meaningful patterns from very large (zetabyte) data sets--including the e-mails, text messages, file transfers--of individuals in operational environments. The team will use machine learning, anomaly detection algorithms, and other tools in hope of revealing the likelihood of a soldier or government employee turning into an “insider threat.“

“Our goal is to develop a system that will provide analysts for the first time a very short, ranked list of unexplained events that should be further investigated,” said Bader.

The project is being supported by the Defense Advanced Project's Research Agency (DARPA) and the Army Research Office.

Source: Georgia Tech

Instant Information Helps Consumers Make Healthier Food Choices

U.S. food and beverage manufacturers are required to put standardized ingredients labels on their products. But this information may not be complete for consumers with specific concerns about the contents, such as additives like preservatives and food coloring. Enter Fooducate, a year-old start up that seeks to guide shoppers through the minefield that is the typical American grocery.

Fooducate’s app allows the consumer to scan bar codes on the food packages to get detailed analysis of the contents, along with recommendations for alternatives based on what other shoppers have chosen instead.

“Users have submitted more than 250,000 products and updates to the Fooducate database, which is the most comprehensive and current nutrition data source in the U.S. today,” claims Fooducate.

Source: Fooducate.com.

Thank you to Tech Cocktail for the story tip!

Forecasting Asia’s Growing Pains

Asia’s growth will strain the resources of the entire globe by mid-century, according to Charles Morrison, president of the East-West Center. Morrison told business leaders at an Asia-Pacific Business Symposium that, by 2050, Asia will own more than half the world’s automobiles and more than half of global GDP.

With all the development come vulnerabilities. Asia’s most rapidly growing cities will be more susceptible to natural and human-made disasters, Morrison warned. Also, large human and animal populations living close together raises the risks of new disease pandemics.

It may take up to four days for an ejection of charged particles and magnetic streams to produce magnetic storms on Earth, so more-accurate forecasts of the timing of these impacts could, for example, give airline operators the opportunity to reroute traffic and power companies time to work around potential outages or other problems.

Meanwhile, by 2050, 40% of Japan’s population will be over 60 years old, and less than 9% will be younger than 15, creating a future demographic disaster as fewer young people will be able to support their elders. And environmentally, water scarcities already afflict parts of Asia due to increased farm and livestock production.

“There are uncertainties about how to handle the enormous challenges Asian countries face,” said Morrison, who called for more dialogue among the region’s nations.

Source: The East West Center

Microinsuring the Future for Ethiopian Farmers

A relatively new area of aid similar to microlending schemes focuses on helping the world’s poor protect themselves against natural disasters.

One such microinsurance program, called HARITA (Horn of Africa Risk Transfer for Adaptation), allows farmers in Ethiopia to protect their crops against losses due to changes in the weather. The program tracks weather indexes and issues payouts automatically, relieving the farmers of bureaucratic burdens.

Following a drought in 2011, HARITA issued payments of more than $17,000 to 1,800 farmers in seven Ethiopian villages, according to program partners Oxfam America and Earth Institute at Columbia University.

HARITA is funded by the Rockefeller Foundation and Swiss Re. Since it was launched in 2009, the program has grown to cover 13,000 households in 400 villages.

Source: Earth Institute, Columbia University

For more on microinsurance, see Microinsurance for Megadisasters, World Trends & Forecasts, THE FUTURIST, May-June 2007.

Inventors Wanted

Do you have an invention or startup that will change the world? The World Future Society has issued a call for inventions and innovations from breakthrough startups, who will compete in the second annual Futurists:BetaLaunch expo in Toronto next July.

Futurists:BetaLaunch (F:BL) serves as a technology expo where engineers, designers, and others can present their inventions to the 1,000 futurists expected to gather for the Society’s annual conference. Also in attendance will be venture capitalists such as Moon Express founder Naveen Jain and Lightspeed Venture Partners.

All inventors selected to present their inventions at F:BL will receive a complimentary registration to the WorldFuture 2012 conference ($750 value). The deadline for entry is March 15, 2012.

What’s in THE FUTURIST magazine?

A selection of articles, special reports, and other future-focused material on our Web site that you might have missed. Members may sign in to read and comment. Not a member? Join now at http://www.wfs.org/renew.

Outlook 2012

Environmental threats and energy source opportunities; in vivo organ and tissue printing and buildings that self-adapt to weather fluctuations. These forecasts and more appear in THE FUTURIST’s annual roundup of thought-provoking ideas. Read more.

Purchase a PDF download.  Members: Login for free access.

Check out Cynthia G. Wagner's video of the editors’ selection of the Top 10 Forecasts.

Fighting AIDS through Genome Editing

A new treatment might genetically adapt us to resist HIV. Read more.

Virtual Games Bring Currency to Real Life

Young entrepreneur Brian Wong sees mobile games invading real life. Read more.

November 2011, Vol. 12, No. 11

In this issue:

  • DARPA to Put 3-D Printers in Schools
  • Building Nano Communication Networks Like Bacteria
  • Models Predict Impacts of Solar Explosions
  • Cyberwarfare and Other Threats
  • WFS President Timothy Mack Addresses French Embassy
  • What’s in THE FUTURIST magazine (Members Only)
  • What’s in THE FUTURIST magazine (Public)

DARPA to Put 3-D Printers in Schools

The U.S. Defense Advanced Projects Research Agency (DARPA) plans to put 1,000 3-D printers (rapid fabrication devices) into high schools across the United States as a way to encourage American young people to go into engineering and particularly manufacturing.

The project is one of many investments that the agency will make over the next five years to help high schoolers build STEM skills. These investments are critical to grow an educated twenty-first century workforce, says DARPA director Regina Dugan. The hollowing of America’s manufacturing base has direct effects on national security, Dugan told participants at National Academy of Engineering event in Washington, D.C., in October.

“Norm Augustine, former president of Lockheed Martin, projected that if current trends in the manufacturing of defense aircraft continue, by the year 2054, the entire department of defense budget would be necessary to purchase one airplane. Obviously, that trend is not sustainable,” she said. “The question is not whether manufacturing is essential to our national security, diplomatic, and economic health as a nation… Rather, the question is how best to revitalize our manufacturing base.”

Source: DARPA. Watch the NAE event here.

Learning from Bacteria to Build Nano Communication Networks

A Georgia Tech team has received a $3 million grant to explore how bacteria interact on a molecular level to form networks. The research may one day guide the design of nanodevices able to communicate with one another and accomplish tasks at the nanolevel of one billionth of a meter in size, which could lead to future breakthroughs in nanorobotics.

“The nanoscale machines could potentially be injected into the blood, circulating in the body to detect viruses, bacteria, and tumors,” says researcher Ian Akyildiz. “All these illnesses — cancer, diabetes, Alzheimer’s, asthma, whatever you can think of — they will be history over the years. And that’s just one application.”

Source: Georgia Tech

Models Predict Impacts of Solar Explosions

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is developing models to improve their predictions of space weather activity and its impacts.

Specifically, they are looking for ways to minimize the effects of big blasts of plasma that the Sun may eject, interrupting vital electrical power grids radio and satellite communications systems, such as Global Positioning Systems.

It may take up to four days for an ejection of charged particles and magnetic streams to produce magnetic storms on Earth, so more-accurate forecasts of the timing of these impacts could, for example, give airline operators the opportunity to reroute traffic and power companies time to work around potential outages or other problems.

“This advanced model has strengthened forecasters’ understanding of what happens in the 93 million miles between Earth and the Sun following a solar disturbance, says Tom Bogdan, director of NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center in Boulder, Colorado. “It will help power grid and communications technology managers know what to expect so they can protect infrastructure and the public.”

Source: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

Military Planners Meet to Discuss Cyberwarfare and Other Threats of 2028

Military personal, academics, and diplomats met in Virginia October 25-28 for Unified Quest, a seminar war game to explore the geostrategic environment of the future.

“The purpose of this symposium is about plausible strategic landscapes,” said Col. Kevin Felix, director of the Army’s Future Warfare Division. “The four working groups were given wide latitude to work towards 2028, and it was about bringing in the right folks.”

The threat of future cyberwarfare attacks emerged as a particular concern. “We may be facing more asymmetric threats, in the cyber environment in particular,” Felix said.

FUTURIST magazine deputy editor and WFS communications director Patrick Tucker gave the opening keynote to the symposium. He emphasized the shifts in the geostrategic landscape that the United States was facing as a result of changing population dynamics, resource exhaustion, and the empowerment of individuals due to how the rapid spread and advancement of information technology. The latter phenomenon has both positives and negatives from a defense standpoint, said Tucker. (Tucker is also the editor of this newsletter.)

Source: United States Army

WFS President Timothy Mack Addresses French Embassy

World Future Society President Timothy Mack addressed the French Embassy in Washington, D.C., on November 1, describing the importance for leaders to think strategically about the future.

“The foresight analyst cannot simply be an advisor who comes, looks, speaks, and leaves. It is my belief that foresight analysts (or futurists) have a responsibility to determine not only the best paths to the future but the most viable ones, and then to stay the course and see change for the better through to completion,” Mack said in his address.

Mack served as moderator for the event, which included Michel Godet and Philippe Durance, co-authors of Strategic Foresight for Corporate and Regional Development, and consulting futurist Joseph F. Coates, who offered “A Comparative View of La Prospective and Traditional Techniques Used in the U.S., Great Britain, and Much of Europe.”

Among the attendees were WFS founder Edward Cornish; Institute for Alternative Futures chairman Clem Bezold; FUTURIST magazine contributing editor David Pearce Snyder; biostatistician Jay Herson; Donna Heivilin of the International Alliance for Women; and Jay Gary of Regent University.

What’s in THE FUTURIST magazine?

A selection of articles, special reports, and other future-focused material on our Web site that you might have missed. Members may sign in to read and comment. Not a member? Join now at http://www.wfs.org/renew.

Outlook 2012

Environmental threats and energy source opportunities; in vivo organ and tissue printing and buildings that self-adapt to weather fluctuations. These forecasts and more appear in THE FUTURIST’s annual roundup of thought-provoking ideas. Read more.

Updating the Global Scorecard: The 2011 State of the Future

By Jerome C. Glenn

The world could be better off in ten years than it is today, but only if decision makers can work together to meet global challenges, according to The Millennium Project. Read more.

Investigating the Future: Lessons from the “Scene of the Crime”

By Charles Brass

Futurists investigate clues and evidence to attempt to answer difficult questions, much like crime-scene investigators. But while CSIs try to determine things that have already happened, futurists look to what may yet happen, and what we can do now to influence it. Read more.

What’s in THE FUTURIST (public)

Lost and Found in Japan

By Patrick Tucker

While the world turned its attention to the frightening prospects of a nuclear catastrophe in post-tsunami Japan, another crisis was being dealt with, quietly, humbly, and with pragmatic determination. Read more.

THE FUTURIST Interviews Jim Motavalli, author of High Voltage: The Fast Track to Plug In the Auto Industry

Electric vehicles have existed as a concept since the 1890s, but now the technology is finally here to make them a standard consumer vehicle of choice, according to Jim Motavalli, environmental writer, in his new book, High Voltage: The Fast Track to Plug In the Auto Industry (Rodale, 2011). He sees a huge market growth ahead for electric vehicles, and for hybrid vehicles, as well. Read more.

Tomorrow in Brief

  • Metal Theft on the Rise?
  • Virtual Lab Rats
  • Solar Ivy for Walls
  • Robotic Caregivers
  • Aquariums as Farms

October 2011, Vol. 12. No. 10

In this issue:

  • Tone of News Predicts Broad Social Behaviors
  • Building Stronger Skyscrapers, Faster
  • THE FUTURIST Presents an Evening with Aubrey de Grey
  • Progress in Improving Global Literacy Is Steady, but Slow
  • Votizen Wins Disruptathon Social Media Competition
  • What’s Hot @WFS.ORG

Tone of News Predicts Broad Social Behaviors

Properly analyzed, the tone of news articles can predict large areas of the future, according to Kalev Leetaru, a researcher at the University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign.

First, you need a lot of news items; Leetaru’s sample sets ran into the millions. Then you need the right parameters; Leetarau began with 1,500 dimensions of human emotions. Finally, you need a supercomputer capable of petascale processing (more than one quadrillion operations per second).

Using a large, shared-memory supercomputer called Nautilus and a 30-year archive of global news, Leetaru was able to pinpoint the location of Osama Bin Laden within a 200-kilometer radius of Abbottabad, Pakistan, where the terrorist leader was eventually found. His model also retroactively predicted the social uprisings in Egypt, Tunisia, and Libya.

"News is increasingly being produced and consumed online, supplanting print and broadcast to represent nearly half of the news monitored across the world today by Western intelligence agencies.… Computational analysis can yield novel insights to the functioning of society, including predicting future economic events," Leetaru writes in his paper Culturomics 2.0: Forecasting Large-Scale Human Behavior Using Global Media Tone in Time and Space published in the September 5 edition of the journal First Monday.

Source: “Culturomics 2.0: Forecasting Large-Scale Human Behavior Using Global Media Tone in Time and Space”

Special thanks to Alireza Hejazi for this tip!

Building Stronger Skyscrapers, Faster

Building a skyscraper around a core wall, or vertical spine, could speed up the construction process as well as enhance the structural resistance to earthquakes and high winds.

Purdue University civil engineering professors Mark Bowman and Michael Kreger are spearheading a project to develop this speedier construction technique.

Traditional core walls are made from reinforced concrete and are produced one floor at a time. The new technique sandwiches concrete between steel plates; the hollow structure is strong enough to allow the surrounding construction to proceed on several floors at once.

On a 40- to 50-story building, the core wall system could save three to four months of construction time — and, hence, offer significant dollar savings, according to Bowman.

“The idea has been used in England, but not for high-rise buildings and not in seismic locations,“ says Bowman. “We are talking about extending it to high rises and in zones where you get significant lateral forces from earthquakes or high winds. So it’s got to be suitable for Chicago or cities on the West Coast.”

Source: Purdue University.

THE FUTURIST Presents: The Immortal Life? An Evening with Aubrey de Grey

On October 12, Aubrey de Grey, a biomedical gerontologist based in Cambridge, UK, will discuss prospects for extending the human life span indefinitely at the Community College of Baltimore, an event sponsored by THE FUTURIST magazine. http://www.wfs.org/content/wfs-fall-events.

De Grey is the chief science officer of SENS Foundation, a California-based charity dedicated to combating the aging process. He is also editor-in-chief of Rejuvenation Research, a peer-reviewed journal focused on intervention in aging. He received his BA and PhD from the University of Cambridge in 1985 and 2000, respectively. He’s also author of the bestselling book Ending Aging: The Rejuvenation Breakthroughs That Could Reverse Human Aging in Our Lifetime.

Dr. de Grey will explain: (1) why therapies that can add 30 healthy years to the remaining life span of the typical 60-year-old may well arrive within the next few decades, and (2) why those who benefit from such therapies will very probably continue to benefit from progressively improved therapies indefinitely and will thus avoid debilitation or death from age-related causes at any age.

This event will take place on October 12 at 7 p.m. at the J-137 Lecture Hall, Essex Campus, Community College of Baltimore, 7201 Rossville Boulevard, Baltimore, MD 21237-3899. Register here.

Progress in Improving Global Literacy Is Steady… but Slow

Today, 793 million adults around the world — about 64% of whom are women — lack basic reading and writing skills, according to the UNESCO Institute for Statistics.

Using the most recent data available (2009), the Institute reports that more than half of the world’s illiterate population resides in South and West Asia, while sub-Saharan Africa represents 21.4% of the human population who cannot read.

“However, rates can vary widely across countries in a region. In Mali, for example, merely 26% of the population is literate in contrast to Equatorial Guinea where 93% of the population can read and write,” according to the Institute.

The researchers state that literacy rates have risen 2.3% in the past 10 years, and 10.6% in the past 20 years.

Sources: UNESCO, Download the PDF

Votizen Wins Disruptathon Social Media Competition

Pete Ericson’s most recent Disruptathon Social Media Innovation Forum wrapped up in Washington, D.C., on September 27, bringing together technology watchers, venture capitalists, and start-up founders from around the Mid-Atlantic. Disruptathon bills itself as an open innovation contest, “a wholly interactive, highly competitive showcase for the most disruptive future thinkers across all industries.”

Various start-ups get two minutes to pitch their ideas to a crowd of peers. The D.C. event’s winner in every category was Votizen a social network that “allows its members, Votizens, to claim their voter profile, learn about issues and elections, and take collective action with other committed voters through social media. Backed by the original investors in Facebook and Twitter, Votizen is an independent company and is not affiliated with any political party, candidate or special interest group.”

Other participating start-ups of note to futurists included:

  • Full Circle: a Bethesda, Maryland, start-up that “allows you to identify and communicate with other members nearby and search or filter members by profile details, keywords, interests or likes.”
  • And Trendspottr, a Web service that identifies real-time trends and trending information from Twitter and Facebook for any search query.

Disruptathon will partner again with THE FUTURIST magazine for Futurists:BetaLaunch, to be held in Toronto as part of WorldFuture 2012.

Source: Disruptathon

What’s Hot @WFS.ORG (Member’s Only)

A selection of articles, special reports, and other future-focused material on our Web site that you might have missed. Members may sign in to read and comment. Not a member? Join now at http://www.wfs.org/renew

Turbulence-Proofing Your Scenarios

By Rick Docksai

Investing in an effective scenario-planning exercise and using the experience wisely can have a big payoff for organizations. Read more

The Uncertain Future of the English Language

By Edward Cornish

Parlez vous “Globish”? If English is your only language, you’re probably doing okay now. But you might not be prepared for the future, suggest the authors of Globish and The Last Lingua Franca Read more

September 2011, Vol. 12 No. 9

  • The Importance of Chance in Wealth Concentration
  • Climate Engineering Technology Assessment
  • Succession Planning for Companies
  • Prescription Drug Abuse Is on the Rise
  • What’s Hot @WFS.ORG (Public)
  • What’s Hot @WFS.ORG (Members Only)

Chance Favors the Concentration of Wealth in Fewer Hands

Wealth accumulation might be due to a number of factors: hard work, intelligence, lack of ethics, or all of the above. Wealth concentration, on the other hand, is determined primarily by chance and the effect of compounding returns, according to a study published in the journal PLoS One.

The distribution of wealth is far more uneven than popular economic models would suggest, report researchers Joseph E. Fargione, Clarence Lehman, and Stephen Polasky. Given a situation where "all individuals have equal talent and begin with the same amount of capital," an increasingly smaller number of investors accumulated an ever larger share of wealth at the expense of the other investors.

The researchers also found that larger concentrations of wealth decrease diversity within the economy, which decreases the amount of additional wealth that economy is able to create.

A separate report from the liberal Institute for Policy Studies found that, of the 100 highest paid American CEOs of 2010, 22 made more in compensation and benefits than their companies paid in taxes.

Sources: “Entrepreneurs, Chance, and the Deterministic Concentration of Wealth” by Joseph E. Fargione, Clarence Lehman, and Stephen Polasky, >PLoS One, PubMed Central.

“Executive Excess 2011: The Massive CEO Rewards forTax Dodging” by Sarah Anderson, Chuck Collins, Scott Klinger, Sam Pizzigati, Institute for Policy Studies.

Assessing Climate Engineering Technologies

A majority of climate scientists in the United States support a federal program to explore methods for engineering the Earth's climate (otherwise known as geoengineering). These technologies aim to protect against the worst effects of manmade climate change, according to a new technology assessment from the U.S. Government Accountability Office.

“Climate engineering technologies are not now an option for addressing global climate change, given our assessment of their maturity, potential effectiveness, cost factors, and potential consequences,” the report concluded. The majority of the experts who participated in the assessment agreed that, if geoengineering is going to be effective in the next two decades, research should begin now, because so little is known about how to change the Earth’s climate, much less how to do so with minimal risk.Among the futurists contributing to the assessment were Jamais Cascio and World Future Society board member Kenneth Hunter.

Sources: “Climate Engineering: Technical Status, Future Directions, and Potential Responses” (GAO-11-71, July 28, 2011)

WFS Fall Events You Won't Want to Miss

The World Future Society and THE FUTURIST magazine are pleased to announce several upcoming noteworthy events for future-interested folks in the Mid-Atlantic region. Visit the WFS Fall Events page to register and learn more and register. http://www.wfs.org/content/wfs-fall-events.

2011 State of the Future The 15th Anniversary Edition Tuesday, September 13, 2011

The world is in a race between implementing ever-increasing ways to improve the human condition and the seemingly ever-increasing complexity and scale of global problems. So, how are we doing in this race? What’s the score so far? What are some strategies to improve our prospects? Jerome C. Glenn, author of the State of the Future series will address these and other topics. Register

How to Put Your Brain on the Internet (and Would You Want to?) A Presentation by Michael Chorost, author, World Wide Mind, World Future Society-Washington, D.C. Chapter, Thursday, September 15, 2011

Author Michael Chorost will show emerging technologies that allow brain activity to be read and altered in unprecedented detail. He’ll outline what a future "World Wide Mind" could look like and ask: Would people want to be part of it? Register

THE FUTURIST Magazine Presents: The Immortal Life? An Evening With Aubrey de Grey, Wednesday, October 12, 2011

Dr. de Grey will explain: (1) why therapies that can add 30 healthy years to the remaining life span of the typical 60-year-old may well arrive within the next few decades, and (2) why those who benefit from such therapies will very probably continue to benefit from progressively improved therapies indefinitely and will thus avoid debilitation or death from age-related causes at any age. Register

Succession Planning Increases—and Decreases—among U.S. Companies

The number of U.S. organizations with formal succession plans has declined over the past five years, according to a survey conducted by the Society for Human Resource Management (SHRM). These processes aim to ensure that top employees have the necessary preparation to advance into key positions.

Only 23% of companies were likely to have a formal succession plan in 2011, compared with 29% in 2006, reports SHRM. On the other hand, informal succession planning rose from 29% of organizations in 2006 to 38% in 2011. The study notes that, if the staff size of the organization is too small, then those in charge may not see the need to formalize such a plan, although there may be an informal plan in place.

Whether formal or informal, such long-term planning benefits many organizations. Identifying and developing employees to take on more leadership can help make transitions such as expansion, restructuring, and the retirement of top-level executives more efficient. Experts believe that internal recruitment and development plans should be regularly updated rather than remain fixed or stagnant.

“The number one reason organizations are not developing formal succession planning is because more immediate projects are taking precedence—not surprising given that organizations are focusing their energies on dealing with an uncertain economic outlook,” says Evren Esen, manager of the Survey Research Center at SHRM. “Still, succession planning has significant strategic implications for organizations and should not be Still, succession planning has significant strategic implications for organizations and should not be put on the back burner, especially during times of economic volatility.”

Esen believes that planning would likely increase if human resource departments were more involved. According to the report, human resources departments are in charge of succession plans approximately 40% of the time.

Source: Society for Human Resource Management

Prescription Drug Abuse Is on the Rise in the United States

According to a report from the Substance Abuse and Mental Health Services Administration, the percentage of opiate-related admissions at substance abuse treatment centers that fell were related to painkillers (as opposed to other opiates like heroin) increased from 8% in 1999 to 33% in 2009. Heroin use mostly accounted for the other opiate-related admissions. The number of prescription painkiller users totaled around 7% of total admissions.

Close to 2 million individuals over 12 were treated for substance abuse in the U.S. during 2009. Alcohol abuse accounted for the majority (42%), but opiates finished second, at 21%. Marijuana, cocaine, and methamphetamines rounded out the top five, which together account for more than 95% of all admissions.

The report further points out that close to half of those admitted for alcoholism also abused other substances. One positive trend seems to have emerged, however: The report notes that treatment admissions for cocaine use dropped during this period (from 14% to 9%).

Source: Substance Abuse and Mental Health Services Administration,

What’s Hot @WFS.ORG (Public)

A selection of articles, special reports, and other future-focused material on our Web site that you might have missed. Members may sign in to read and comment. Not a member? Join now at http://www.wfs.org/renew.

The Futurist Interviews Matthias Mordi, Empowering Africans Through the Internet

Internet connectivity is spreading across Africa, and it is giving rise to new waves of civic activism, according to the nonprofit Accender Africa. Nigeria alone saw the numbers of Internet connections triple between 2000 and 2008—to 24 million, up from 8 million—according to the organization.

Five Principles of Futuring as Applied History

By Stephen M. Millett

A historian and futurist offers a theoretical framework for developing more credible and useful forecasts. The goal is to help individuals and organizations improve long-term foresight and decision making.

News and Events for the Futurist Community

  • Winners of The 2011 Possible Futures Film Contest Announced
  • Upcoming WFS Chapter Meetings: Washington, D.C., and Las Vegas, Nevada
  • Soon to be Published: The Great Growing Up by John Renesch
  • Free Business Foresight E-Publication from Alireza Hejazi
  • Upcoming WFS Chapter Meeting in Vancouver, B.C.

What’s Hot @WFS.ORG (Members Only)

The Troubling Future of Internet Search

Data customization is giving rise to a private information universe at the expense of a free and fair flow of information, says the former executive director of Moveon.org.

Finding Connection And Meaning in Africa

A doctor discovers meaningfulness in a simpler, survival-oriented culture.

The Sounds of Wellness

Music may have charms to suppress the savage gene.

Fast Fashion: Tale of Two Markets

Should retailers put the brakes on quick-response manufacturing?

The Gamification of Education

Why online social games may be poised to replace textbooks in schools.

Biomimicry to Fight Blindness

Doctors design neuron-compatible implants to restore lost eyesight.

August 2011, Vol. 12, No. 8

In this issue:

  • Gene Mutations and Flu, New Breakthroughs in Prediction and Detection
  • Harvesting Wasted “Junk” Energy
  • Tracing the Tsunami’s Glow
  • What’s Hot @WFS.ORG (Public)
    • News and Events from the Futurist Community
    • The Futurist Interviews Longevity Expert Sonia Arrison
    • Hands-Free Headset Computer Declared “Best in Show” at Futurist Conference
    • Escaping the Filter Bubble
  • What’s Hot @WFS.ORG (Members Only)
    • The Coming Robot Evolution Race
    • Exploring New Energy Alternatives
    • The Accelerating Techno-Human Future

Gene Mutations and Flu: New Breakthroughs in Prediction and Detection

Researchers have discovered a method to predict how a particular gene will spread through a population, providing insight into how animals evolved and will continue to evolve in the future. The method could show which mutations are beneficial to the organism and which are not, under various types of migration. The findings, published in the Institute of Physics and German Physical Society’s New Journal of Physics, could also help doctors understand how viruses spread among people.

“Suppose we are speaking of the spread of epidemics. A virus can jump from one individual to another during a single encounter. The migration pattern in this case is then the network of people meeting each other.… An epidemiologist could use our formulas to compute the best way to limit encounters between individuals and therefore slow the spread of epidemics,” says Professor Bharum Houchmandzadeh, lead author on the study.

On a related note, researchers from the Cleveland Clinic and Syft Technologies have developed an easy breath test that can detect the presence of H1N1, specifically peak levels of nitric oxide (NO), roughly three days after exposure to the H1N1 vaccine. Increased nitric oxide levels are a typical biological reaction to influenza.

The breakthrough could help health workers avoid unnecessary vaccinations and thus better manage vaccination stockpiles in the event of an outbreak.(It could also ruin the upcoming movie Contagion.)

Sources: Download the paper on predicting mutation survival here: http://iopscience.iop.org/1367-2630/13/7/073020

Syft Technologies: http://www.syft.com/images/Documents/MediaReleases/h1n1_vacine_medrel.pdf

Harvesting Wasted “Junk” Energy

From the vibrations filling the air when jets take off to the waves generated by radio and television transmitters, our environment is full of largely wasted energy. Now, researchers are seeking ways to capture that energy and turn it into useful sources of electricity.

At Georgia Tech, a rectifying antenna used to convert ambient microwave energy to DC power was developed by a team led by electrical and computer engineering professor Manos Tentzeris. The gathered power could be used for wireless sensors, RFID tags, and other monitoring tasks.

“There is a large amount of electromagnetic energy all around us, but nobody has been able to tap into it,” says Tentzeris. “We are using an ultra-wideband antenna that lets us exploit a variety of signals in different frequency ranges, giving us greatly increased power-gathering capability.”

Researchers are also targeting the “junk” energy from road and airport runway vibrations. At the University of Buffalo, physicist Surajit Sen and his colleagues have taken a mathematical approach to studying energy exchange between particles. They discovered that altering the surface area of adjacent particles can change the way energy moves, thus making it possible to control the energy channeled.

“We could have chips that take energy from road vibrations, runway noise from airports—energy that we are not able to make use of very well—and convert it into pulses, packets of electrical energy, that become useful power,” says Sen. “You give me noise, I give you organized bundles.”

Sources: Georgia Tech http://gtresearchnews.gatech.edu/device-captures-ambient-energy/

University of Buffalo http://www.buffalo.edu/news/12733

Tracing the Tsunami’s Glow

The March 11 tsunami that hit off the coast of Japan has given one researcher a unique glimpse into how these massive waves form and move—information that could save lives the next time a tsunami strikes.

Researcher Jonathan Makela of the University of Illinois and his fellow authors discovered that tsunamis have particular visual signatures which, when viewed from a high enough altitude using special lenses, gives the tsunami a type of low-red glow. This enabled them to essentially forecast when and how the waves from the March 11 tsunami would hit the island of Hawaii. The finding could help emergency workers in locations that were vulnerable to tsunamis better prepare for destructive waves.

“What we show in the paper, in addition to the first optical images of this signature, is the advantage of using a camera system with a wide field of view as compared to other observing methods that have been used in the past—namely, GPS receivers. The network of GPS receivers are not terribly dense on Hawaii and so one cannot get a sense of what the wave structure looks like. From the single imaging system, we can observe a 106 km2 area of the upper atmosphere and see the waves encroach on Hawaii from the northwest. This is the ‘forecasting’ capability (vs. ‘prediction’) that this technique would present. … Essentially, we observed the waves in the atmosphere an hour ahead of when the [March 11] tsunami reached [Hawaii]. An imaging system on a GEO satellite would enable observations over the open ocean,” according to Makela.

Source: “Imaging and modeling the ionospheric airglow response over Hawaii to the tsunami generated by the Tohoku earthquake of 11 March 2011,” in Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 38, L00g02, 5 Pp., 2011. http://europa.agu.org/?view=article&uri=/journals/gl/gl1113/2011GL047860/2011GL047860.xml&t=2011,makela

What’s Hot @WFS.ORG (Public)

A selection of articles, special reports, and other future-focused material on our Web site that you might have missed. Members may sign in to read and comment. Not a member? Join now at http://www.wfs.org/renew.

News and Events from the Futurist Community

Edited by Aaron M. Cohen

  • Upcoming Event: Robots Invade Washington, D.C.
  • Upcoming Event: DaVinci Inventor Showcase
  • Hudson Institute Book Forum on the History of the Future
  • WorldFuture 2011 Wraps Up
  • New Series of Multimedia Reports Showcases Potential Engineering Breakthroughs
  • Singularity University and Expo 2015 Announce Partnership

The Futurist Interviews Longevity Expert Sonia Arrison

In her book 100 Plus: How the Coming Age of Longevity Will Change Everything, From Careers and Relationships to Family and Faith (Basic Books, 2011), Sonia Arrison tracks the advancements of “life-extension” medical techniques, which undo the damage that our bodies incur over time. She spoke to FUTURIST assistant editor Rick Docksai. Read more

Hands-Free Headset Computer Declared “Best in Show” at Futurist Conference

Futurists got up close and personal with ten novel ideas and inventions at Futurists:BetaLaunch (F:BL), the World Future Society’s first idea and solution expo and competition. F:BL was moderated by event partner Disruptathon and held in Vancouver July 8-10 during WorldFuture 2011: Moving from Vision to Action, the Society’s annual conference.

Disruptathon has announced that the Golden-i headset computer, a collaboration between technology firm Kopin and phone maker Motorola, was voted “Best in Show” and “most buyable” of the inventions showcased at F:BL. Golden-i was also voted the entry that most “makes me feel like I’m in the future, now!” by WorldFuture 2011 attendees. Read more

Escaping the Filter Bubble

By Eli Pariser

The board president of MoveOn.org warns that more-personalized Internet searching may have hidden side effects. Read more

What’s Hot @WFS.ORG (Members Only)

The Coming Robot Evolution Race

By Steven M. Shaker

Homo sapiens may have “won” the evolutionary race to perfect humankind, but artificial intelligence and robotics will evolve faster and farther. Rather than compete with them, we may do well to make them our allies and co-evolve, suggests a technology trend analyst. Read more

Exploring New Energy Alternatives

By David J. LePoire

What is most likely to satisfy our energy needs in the future—wind farms and photovoltaic arrays, or something yet to be invented? Options for the world’s energy future may include surprises, thanks to innovative research under way around the world. Read more

The Accelerating Techno-Human Future

By Braden R. Allenby and Daniel Sarewitz

Technology and humanity are co-evolving in ways that past generations had never imagined possible, according to the authors of The Techno-Human Condition. This is not necessarily a good thing, they warn. With unprecedented levels of innovation come new societal tensions and cultural clashes. People everywhere are challenged to adapt to accelerating change. Read more

July 2011, Vol. 12, No. 7

In this issue:

  • Artificial Meat Cuts Beef Carbon Footprint Up to 96%
  • How to Hacker-Proof Your Cybernetic Implants
  • The Arctic's Monitor in Space
  • What’s Hot @WFS.ORG (Public)
  • What’s Hot @WFS.ORG (Members Only)

Artificial Meat Cuts Beef Carbon Footprint Up to 96%

Techniques for producing meat without harming animals have been shown to produce fewer greenhouse gases than conventional livestock farming.

A new study from University of Oxford PhD candidate Hanna Tuomisto and her colleagues has shown that artificial or "cured" beef resulted in 78%–96% reduction in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and required 82%–96% less water.

Consumption of livestock and particularly beef has been on the rise in recent decades. The United Nations expects demand for livestock-based food to double between 2000 and 2050 as the developing world and countries like China increase meat consumption. In many respects, beef is an unparalleled source of protein, but livestock production currently accounts for 18% of GHGs worldwide, a larger portion than the transportation sector.

"The results show that cultured meat production emits substantially less GHG emissions and requires only a fraction of land and water compared to conventionally produced meat in Europe. Energy requirements of cultured meat production are lower compared to beef, sheep, and pork, but higher compared to poultry," the authors of the study write.

They deduce that an additional $160 million in research and development is needed before a commercialized product can be brought to market. The researchers' findings were published in the Environmental Journal of Science and Technology.

Source: Purchase the paper "Environmental Impacts of Cultured Meat Production" here. Further Reading: FUTURIST deputy editor Patrick Tucker and author Robert Frietas discuss the future of food, including artificial meat, with Wired magazine writer Eliot Van Buskirk: read more.

How to Hacker-Proof Your Cybernetic Implants

In 2009, Carol Kasyjanski made history becoming the first American to receive a pacemaker that wirelessly broadcast her private cardiovascular data to her doctor. This allowed her doctor to remotely monitor her health.

In the following years, wireless communication has become an increasingly common aspect of implantable medical devices (IMDs). That new capability can be great for patients, allowing their doctors to more effectively "check up" on them and without a drive to the hospital.

The downside is that these devices are left open to hacking, which could make sensitive patient data vulnerable to theft or even put lives at risk. IT-enabled pacemakers, in particular, can be programmed to deliver a voltage surge directly to the heart.

A team of researchers from MIT have developed a "shield" for IMDs. A thin metal strip is implanted over the medical device, within the patient, to block unauthorized commands.

"The shield uses a novel radio design that can act as a jammer-cum-receiver. This design allows it to jam the IMD's messages, preventing others from decoding them.

Source: MIT. "They Can Hear Your Heartbeats: Non-Invasive Security for Implantable Medical Devices" by Shyamnath Gollakota et al.

The Arctic's Monitor in Space

The extent of sea ice in the Arctic this spring was the third lowest recorded by satellites, according to the European Space Agency, whose new CryoSat mission has just released its first map of sea-ice thickness.

CryoSat's sophisticated imaging technologies enable researchers to measure the height of ice above the water line and to calculate its thickness. The objective of measuring changes at the points where ice meets the ocean is to monitor the effects of climate change.

The satellite's highly detailed data enable scientists also to see the effects of wind stress on the ice sheet. And CryoSat's wide range of view even includes parts of Antarctica, allowing nearly pole-to-pole coverage.

Source: European Space Agency [Editor's note: Arctic specialist Lawson Brigham will be discussing the implications of such issues in his Saturday keynote luncheon on "The New Maritime Arctic" during WorldFuture 2011 in Vancouver. Details here.

What’s Hot @WFS.ORG

WorldFuture 2011 Speaker Forums

The Futurist Interviews Librarian Futurist David Lankes

As more information moves online, traditional libraries are losing relevance, but librarians are becoming more important than ever. This is according to R. David Lankes, author of The Atlas of New Librarianship (MIT Press, 2011). Rick Docksai, assistant editor for THE FUTURIST, spoke with Lankes about his book and his views on libraries' future. Read more

My First Meltdown

By Patrick Tucker

THE FUTURIST — July-August, 2011

Japan's nuclear disaster carries a number of important lessons, such as how and when to deploy a worst-case scenario. While working in Kyoto, THE FUTURIST's senior editor observed Japan's nightmare and the costs of poor communication during a crisis.Read More.

News and Events for the Futurist Community

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A selection of articles, special reports, and other future-focused material on our Web site that you might have missed. Members may sign in to read and comment. Not a member? Join now at http://www.wfs.org/renew.

Our Naked Data

By William Saito

THE FUTURIST — July-August, 2011

The ease of communicating on modern networks has meant a rise in data vulnerability. A security specialist outlines the steps that the IT industry should take to protect consumers from data attacks—and itself from reactionary regulators.Read more.

Eroding Futures: Why Healthy Soil Matters to Civilization

By Lester R. Brown

THE FUTURIST — July-August, 2011

The earth beneath our feet is the Earth’s infrastructure for the resources that sustain our civilizations—and our futures. A leading agricultural policy expert shows what we must do to save the soil. Read more.

June 2011, Vol. 12, No. 6

In this issue:

  • Researchers Warn of Greenhouse Oceans
  • DARPA Launches 100-Year Starship Study
  • New Model Predicts Pace of Design Innovation
  • The Virtual Economy Valued at $3 Billion
  • What’s Hot @WFS.ORG (Public)
    • Escaping the Filter Bubble
    • Future Prospects for the Smart Era
    • News and Events for the Futurist Community
  • What’s Hot @WFS.ORG (Members Only)
    • WorldFuture 2011 Conference Forums
    • World Trends & Forecasts from the May-June issue of THE FUTURIST

Researchers Warn of Greenhouse Oceans

The world’s oceans may be more vulnerable to climate change than previously thought. As more dead zones (patches of ocean severely deprived of oxygen) are being discovered, scientists exploring prehistoric mass marine extinctions now believe another round of extinctions is likely.

“What’s alarming to us as scientists is that there were only very slight natural changes [in the Late Cretaceous period] that resulted in the onset of hypoxia in the deep ocean,” says Martin Kennedy of the University of Adelaide’s School of Earth and Environmental Sciences. This suggests a vulnerability to the more-rapid increase of CO2 that is predicted over the next 50 years. It’s like “hitting our ecosystem with a sledgehammer,” he says.

Nature may have its own cure for “greenhouse oceans,” however. Kennedy and fellow researcher Thomas Wagner of Newcastle University observe that certain minerals in soils help in collecting and burying organic matter dissolved in seawater. And burying the excess carbon helps to restore marine oxygen concentrations and to cool the planet-oceans and all.

Source: University of Adelaide http://www.adelaide.edu.au/news/news45241.html

“Clay mineral continental amplifier for marine carbon sequestration in a greenhouse ocean” by Martin Kennedy and Thomas Wagner (posted May 16, 2011) is available from the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2011/05/12/1018670108.full.pdf+html?sid=31daf44c-6579-4b6a-b08d-7606a300a4ca

DARPA Requests Information for 100 Year Starship Study

The Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) is requesting ideas and information to help get the recently launched 100 Year Starship Study a little further off the ground. Specifically, DARPA is interested in business model proposals for sustaining private investment in long-distance interstellar travel over the next hundred years or longer. (The project will be free of government funding and oversight.)

The 100 Year Starship Study, a collaborative effort between DARPA and NASA, is an initiative to develop what the organizations are calling “the next era of space exploration” — an endeavor that is projected to extend over the next few generations.

Sources: 100 Year Starship Study, 100yearstarshipstudy.com. DARPA, http://www.darpa.mil.

New Model Predicts Pace of Design Innovation

A new mathematical model for predicting how quickly given technologies will improve could enable policy makers and venture capitalists to pick tech winners from losers a lot more easily. The model measures a design’s cost and complexity to forecast how easily it might be upgraded, or innovated compared with other designs.

“It gives you a way to think about how the structure of the technology affects the rate of improvement,” says Jessika Trancik, assistant professor of engineering systems at MIT, one of the authors of a recent paper published by the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

The researchers found that, the more complex a technology, the more time, effort, and money will go into improving it and the slower it will get better.

How might the model be used? Pretend for a moment that you’re a venture capitalist and you have to pick between two companies that make solar cells. Each company is marketing its own patented design; one converts more of the sun’s energy into electricity, but the other is easier to build. The model can tell you which of one of the two to invest in on the basis of whether the benefits of one (efficiency) are justified by the costs (complexity). The price of material and other factors may also be entered in to refine the calculation and provide a better prediction.

The researchers hope the model will also help designers improve their products and manufacturing processes.

Sources: MIT http://web.mit.edu/newsoffice/2011/accelerated-discovery-0517.html.
Read the paper, courtesy of the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2011/05/12/1017298108.full.pdf+html

The Virtual Economy Valued at $3 Billion

The Virtual Economy — roughly defined as exchanges of virtual goods, links, and digital labor such as tweeting — is valued at $3 billion, according to an April report commissioned by the World Bank. The report also lays out future growth areas and growing service sectors for the Virtual Economy. Among them:

  • Third-party online gaming services. An example would be outsourcing to other players the boring parts of a video game to earn more points, a practice also known as “gold farming.”
  • Microwork, defined as work in micro-sized units, like image tagging or brief transcription. Microwork works “similarly to how Taylorism and scientific management transformed manufacturing work in the late 19th century. The resulting microtasks and tools can then be optimized for maximum productivity, as well as distributed to new and innovative labor sources, crowdsourcing platforms being one,” say the report’s authors.
  • “Cherry blossoming” refers to small marketing-related digital tasks, such as “liking” a brand’s Facebook page against a small pay.

“Entrepreneurs should focus on digital micro-work that benefits society. Examples include transcribing books, translating documents, and improving search-engine results,” said Vili Lehdonvirta, a researcher at Helsinki Institute for Information Technology and the study’s main author.

Sources: World Bank http://www.infodev.org/en/Document.1056.pdf, Vili Lehdonvirta (personal site) http://virtual-economy.org/blog/world_bank_virtual_economy_rep.

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What’s Hot @WFS.ORG (Public)

A selection of articles, special reports, and other future-focused material on our Web site that you might have missed.

Escaping the Filter Bubble

By Eli Pariser

The former executive director of MoveOn.org warns that more-personalized Internet searching may have hidden side effects. Read more

Future Prospects for the Smart Era

By Timothy Mack

The President of the World Future Society lays out how smart technology will change the way we live and work. Read more

News and Events for the Futurist Community

Edited by Aaron M. Cohen

  • Earth Policy Institute Celebrates 10th Anniversary
  • Students Will Address Global Issues at Upcoming Design Science Lab
  • Calling All Professional Futurists: A Research Study Seeks Input
  • Play a Game to Find the Future at the New York Public Library
  • Tech Cocktail Teams Up With Futurists:BetaLaunch
  • Humanity+ and Parsons Co-Host Upcoming Conference

The Futurist Interviews the authors of The Techno-Human Condition

Arizona State University engineer Braden Allenby and Arizona State science and society professor Dan Sarewitz, authors of The Techno-Human Condition, talk to FUTURIST magazine assistant editor Rick Docksai about humanity’s capacities to keep up with innovation. Read more

What’s Hot @WFS.ORG (Members Only)

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WorldFuture 2011 Conference Forums

World Trends & Forecasts from the May-June issue of THE FUTURIST

May 2011, Vol. 12, No. 5

In this issue:

  • Synthetic Photosynthesis?
  • New Recommendations for In-Vitro Fertilization May Save Lives
  • New Institute Seeks to Solve “Grand Challenges"
  • Making Smartphones Smarter about Energy Use
  • Olaf Helmer, Futures Pioneer
  • What’s Hot @WFS.ORG (Members Only)
    • The Top 20 (Plus 5) Technologies for the World Ahead
    • Global Megacrisis: Four Scenarios, Two Perspectives
    • Why Farmers Need a Pay Raise
  • What’s Hot @WFS.ORG (Public)
    • Solar Power from the Moon
    • The Futurist Interviews Ecologist James Spotila
    • News and Events for the Futurist Community

Synthetic Photosynthesis?

A solar cell that could mimic photosynthesis—the process that plants use to convert sunlight and water into energy—has long been deemed impractical due to the high costs and instability of its materials. Now, a new artificial leaf that overcomes these problems has been developed by a team of researchers led by Daniel Nocera of MIT.

Powerful and inexpensive catalysts made of nickel and cobalt can split water into its component hydrogen and oxygen, with 10 times the efficiency of natural photosynthesis, according to Nocera.

To be used as a power source, the hydrogen and oxygen would be stored in fuel cells. With the artificial leaf, a single gallon of water could produce a day’s worth of electricity for one house in a developing country, Nocera reported to the American Chemical Society meeting in March. —Cynthia G. Wagner

Source: American Chemical Society, http://www.acs.org

Will Limits on In Vitro Fertilization Save Lives?

Assistive-reproductive technologies that result in multiple births may be behind many of the admissions to neonatal intensive care units. As many as 17% of newborns receiving care at one Canadian hospital were from such multiple births, according to a study led by Keith Barrington of the University of Montreal.

Of these infants, roughly 91%, or 75 babies, were twins or triplets whose mothers used in vitro fertilization or IVF. Health problems among them were serious: “There were six deaths, five babies who developed a brain bleed, and four babies who developed a potentially blinding eye condition,” Barrington reports.

Barrington and his colleagues now advise that the number of eggs implanted during an IVF procedure should be limited to one to prevent twinning. While this could decrease the number of babies born with birth defects, it may also result in women being forced to undergo additional IVF procedures before conception.

New techniques for pre-implantation genetic screening, such as that developed by researchers at the Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona (UAB), could help doctors improve the chances for genetically healthier fertilized embryos prior to IVF implantation. Using the new technique, doctors can screen embryos for almost all structural and numerical chromosomal abnormalities and implant the embryos within 12 hours, which increases chances for successful pregnancy.

Sources: University of Montreal http://www.nouvelles.umontreal.ca/udem-news/news/20110414-le-financement-de-la-procreation-assistee-comporte-de-grands-bienfaits.html
Keith Barrington’s paper, published in the Journal of Pediatrics (Canadian): http://download.journals.elsevierhealth.com/pdfs/journals/0022-3476/PIIS0022347611001806.pdf
Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona http://www.uab.es/servlet/Satellite/latest-news/news-detail/improvements-in-embryonic-preimplantation-genetic-screening-techniques-1096476786473.html?noticiaid=1302676660322

New Johns Hopkins Institute Seeks to Solve “Grand Challenges”

The new Johns Hopkins Systems Institute, initiated in April, will bring together experts in engineering, medicine and public health, education, and other areas to generate innovation and long-term solutions for health-care delivery, infrastructure, education, and energy.

“The complex problems in these areas don’t lend themselves to simple solutions that rely only on engineering and technology. The solutions will have to integrate other factors, such as socioeconomic, education and cultural issues, to be viable on the large scale,” says Mo Dehghani of the Johns Hopkins Applied Physics Laboratory, the Institute’s director.

Source: Johns Hopkins University, http://releases.jhu.edu/2011/04/04/systems_institute/

Breakthrough Will Make Smartphones Smarter about Energy Use

If you own a highly capable smartphone that can play high-definition movies and games, take photos, and connect you to the global positioning system with a flick of the wrist, then congratulations. You also own a power-hungry device that needs constant recharging. All that capability is part of the problem. Even though you can only use one app at a time on the iPhone, your device is doing a lot processing you don’t see, such as storing videos, dialoging with servers, and hooking up with satellites, and it’s doing all that all the time.

Wonyoung Kim, a Harvard University graduate student, has developed a tiny DC-DC power converter to help the chips in your so-called smartphone use energy with a bit more intelligence. Kim’s multi-core voltage regulator (MCVR) would work to keep each chip in the device from drawing too much power when not in use, and then draw power quickly during instances of user demand.

“Including the MCVR on a chip would add about 10% to the manufacturing cost, but with the potential for 20% or more in power savings,” says Kim.

Source: Harvard University, http://www.seas.harvard.edu/news-events/press-releases/multi-core-voltage-regulator

Olaf Helmer, Futures Pioneer

A mathematician who helped bring scientific rigor to speculation about the future, Olaf Helmer died in Oak Harbor, Washington, on April 14, less than two months from his 101st birthday.

Helmer (ranked number 37 on the Encyclopedia of the Future’s list of the world’s 100 most influential futurists) is best known as the co-inventor of the Delphi forecasting methodology — the systematic polling of experts in multiple rounds to create an authoritative consensus about some aspect of the future.

He was a “legendary futurist,” notes Paul Saffo, president of the Institute for the Future, which Helmer co-founded after departing the RAND Corporation in 1968.

It was important, Helmer believed, to use this new methodology for the public good and not exclusively for military strategy. Many of Helmer’s early papers on Delphi polling and other futures work are available at RAND. —Cynthia G. Wagner

Sources:
RAND: http://www.rand.org/pubs/authors/h/helmer-hirschberg_olaf.html
Olaf Helmer on Wikipedia: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Olaf_Helmer

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Thursday and Friday, July 7-8
Education and the New Normal

Don’t forget to register for luncheon sessions before these special events sell out. Register online.

Saturday: The New Maritime Arctic: Global Connections
Lawson W. Brigham, distinguished professor of Geography and Arctic Policy, University of Alaska–Fairbanks, Fairbanks, Alaska

Sunday: Prospects for Defeating Aging Altogether
Aubrey de Grey, biomedical gerontologist, chief science officer SENS Foundation, editor-in-chief, Rejuvenation Research, Cambridge, United Kingdom

We hope to see you there.

What’s Hot @WFS.ORG (Members Only)

A selection of articles, special reports, and other future-focused material on our Web site that you might have missed. Members may sign in to read and comment. Not a member? Join now at http://www.wfs.org/renew.

The Top 20 (Plus 5) Technologies for the World Ahead

By James H. Irvine and Sandra Schwarzbach

Breakthroughs now emerging in biotechnology, robotics, and other key areas bear the potential to reshape life on Earth. Two military analysts describe the 20 innovations that will have the biggest impacts in the near future, plus five prospective technologies that could have major repercussions in the longer term. Read more

Global Megacrisis: Four Scenarios, Two Perspectives

By William E. Halal and Michael Marien

Two futurists map out the convergence of multiple global challenges, offering divergent viewpoints — one optimistic and one pessimistic — on the likelihood of successfully meeting these challenges and turning them into global progress. Read more

Why Farmers Need a Pay Raise

By Julian Cribb

Global commercial trends threaten farmers’ livelihoods — and the global food supply along with them, argues an agricultural policy watcher. The consequences for human beings everywhere could be dire.Read more

What’s Hot @WFS.ORG (Public)

Solar Power from the Moon

By Patrick Tucker

A Japanese company is pitching an alternative energy plan that’s out of this world — and potentially the largest public infrastructure project in human history. Read more

The Futurist Interviews Ecologist James Spotila

By Rick Docksai

The author of Saving Sea Turtles: Extraordinary Stories from the Battle Against Extinction warns that ocean-going species throughout the world face other dangers: fishing, coastal manufacturing, excess tourist activity, and climate change. Read more

News and Events for the Futurist Community

Edited by Aaron Cohen

  • Barry Kellman Speaks at BWC PrepCom.
  • Robert Atkinson and 1X57 Are Among DC’s Tech Titans.
  • Arthur C. Clarke Foundation Honors Elon Musk and Freeman Dyson.
  • Olaf Helmer, developer of the Delphi Method for forecasting, has died.
  • Envisioning the future of museums.
  • Learning opportunities for futurists and educators at WorldFuture 2011.
  • The Institute for Alternative Futures announces international competition for scenarios.

Read more

April 2011, Vol. 12, No. 4

In this issue:

  • Japanese Early Earthquake Warning System Saved Lives
  • Hydrogen as a Fuel Source Comes Closer to Viability
  • Planting Grass Over Corn Could Reduce Surface Temperatures
  • What’s Hot @WFS.ORG (Public)
    • News and Events for the Futurist Community
    • The Futurist Interviews Neuroscientist Eliezer Sternberg
    • Rethinking Colleges from the Ground Up
  • What’s Hot @WFS.ORG (Members Only)
    • Relationships, Community, and Identity in the New Virtual Society
    • Avatars and Virtual Immortality
    • World Trends & Forecasts: The High Cost of Bad Habits / Demographic Impacts on Climate Change

Japanese Early Earthquake Warning System Saved Lives

In the minutes preceding the largest earthquake in the history of Japan, millions of people got a glimpse of the future. Television broadcasts were briefly interrupted by the crisp, telephonic ringing. A bright blue box appeared on the screen showing the eastern coast of Japan and a large red X off shore depicting the epicenter for the massive jolt of seismic activity.

The tragedy in Japan following the March 11 earthquake and tsunami would have been far worse if not for the early earthquake warning system, which issued an alert to television stations, radios, trains, and even cell phones in the seconds before the 9.0 quake hit. The system was originally put in place in 2007 and is maintained by Japan’s Meteorological Agency. It uses a network of approximately 100 seismographic sensors to detect the P waves (low level initial tremors) released by seismic activity. The P waves telegraph the size of the secondary S waves, which are much larger and cause far more damage.

“The alert is issued automatically,” Satoshi Harada of Japan’s Meteorological Agency told FUTURIST UPDATE. “Once the seismometer detects the signal, they transfer to headquarters. [The alert] is processed and issued to the public.”

The system also shuts down high-speed rail service along Shinkansen (bullet trains), which can travel in excess of 300 miles per hour. There are—to date—no reports of Shinkansen derailments resulting from the earthquake.

Sources: Personal Interview, The Japan Meteorological Agency http://www.jma.go.jp/jma/en/Activities/how.pdf

New Breakthrough Improves Viability of Hydrogen as a Fuel Source

Running cars on hydrogen rather than oil has long been the dream of many in the science and environmental communities. But hydrogen remains an impractical fuel alterative, because in gaseous form it’s hard to get enough of it onboard a vehicle to power the car over a significant distance. In liquid form, hydrogen can be very dangerous and can’t be stored for long periods.

Many in the field have focused on developing liquid ammonia compounds that can store hydrogen safely. Scientists at Los Alamos National Lab have claimed that they have made a breakthrough in this area that could make increase the viability of hydrogen as a fuel significantly.

The chemical compound ammonia borane has a relatively high hydrogen storage capacity but is prohibitively expensive. The Los Alamos scientists have found a way to return hydrogen (in sufficient volume) to spent ammonia borane, thus making the fuel usable again, so spent fuel can be repeatedly recycled.

The car of the future may include an ammonia borane tank that can be used and sent back to the factory for recharge at relatively low cost.

Source: Los Alamos National Lab http://www.lanl.gov/news/releases/drive_toward_hydrogen_vehicles_just_got_shorter.html

Grassing Over Cornfields Could Reduce Surface Temperatures

New research from Stanford University shows that planting grasses and other perennial plants in the place of corn, soybeans, and other annual (cash crop) species in California and surrounding states would not only help mitigate man-made climate change, but would also result in lower ground temperatures, at least locally.

“We’ve shown that planting perennial bioenergy crops can lower surface temperatures by about 2 degrees Fahrenheit [1°C] locally, averaged over the entire growing season,” said scientist David Lobel, “That’s a pretty big effect, enough to dominate any effects of carbon savings on the regional climate.”

Perennial plants such as switchgrass release much more water vapor into the air on a yearly basis than do crops like corn. Water vapor helps cool surface temperature. “Locally, the simulated cooling is sufficiently large to partially offset projected warming due to increasing greenhouse gases over the next few decades,” the authors write in their paper published online in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

In a related study, Lobel and other researchers found that corn and maize crops are more susceptible to small increases in climactic temperature than had been previously thought.

Read the full paper, “Direct climate effects of perennial bioenergy crops in the United States” by Matei Georgescu, David B. Lobell, and Christopher B. Field: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences: http://iis-db.stanford.edu/pubs/23121/PNAS-2011-Georgescu-1008779108.pdf

Click of the Month: Japan Matters for America http://www.japanmattersforamerica.org/

Events playing out in Japan may seem far removed from the United States, but Japan matters for America more than you might think. In November 2010, the East West Center created a Web site showing the cultural, economic, and scientific exchanges by prefecture and U.S. congressional district. Some of the information you’ll find: Japanese foreign direct investment in the United States and Japanese exports, sister city programs, the number of Americans living in Japan, and foreign student exchanges.

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Education and the New Normal

The WorldFuture 2011 Education Summit, July 7-8, 2011, Sheraton Vancouver Wall Centre Hotel, Vancouver, BC, Canada. Learn more and register here.

What does the “new normal” of shrunken classroom budgets, greater reliance on information technology and the ongoing science and math skills shortage mean for the future of education? Join fellow futurists this summer in Vancouver to solve these and other questions during our two-day WFS-exclusive Education Summit. This year’s speakers include FUTURIST magazine authors Maria H. Andersen, David Pearce Snyder, and Tom Lombardo among many others.

Sessions include:

  • Defining the “New Normal” for Education
  • Education as a Service
  • Where’s the “Learn This” Button?
  • Learning in Depth: A Simple Innovation That Can Transform Schooling
  • A New Education Vision: Reinventing School-to-Employment Systems for Knowledge-Based Global Economies
  • The New Tech Network
  • Jump-Start Your Career as a Foresight Educator
  • Reinventing Educational Activism by Creating Linkages: Technology, Content-Driven Collaboration, and Financial Literacy
  • A New Century: A New Instructional Paradigm
  • Educating the Wise Cyborg of the Future
  • Deconstructing the Education Monopoly in the United States
  • Futurists and the Future of Education

WorldFuture 2011 Education Summit: $295 for WFS members/$345 for nonmembers. Learn more and register here.

What’s Hot @WFS.ORG (Public)

News and Events for the Futurist Community

Edited by Aaron M. Cohen

A list of upcoming events and updates from the international foresight community. Read more

The Futurist Interviews Neuroscientist Eliezer Sternberg

Eliezer Sternberg, a Tufts University School of Medicine doctoral candidate and the author of My Brain Made Me Do It, spoke with Rick Docksai, staff editor for THE FUTURIST, about where brain research might proceed in the decades ahead. Read more

Rethinking Colleges from the Ground Up

By Thomas Frey

The great reset has not yet finished its resetting process, and colleges are moving quickly into the crosshairs, with government funding, grants, and student loans all harder to get. With a mindset steeped in tradition, college leadership is pushing institutions to be, as the U.S. Marines like to say, “the best they can possibly be.” But being the “best” is meaningless when the rest of the world wants “different.” In this op-ed, futurist Thomas Frey examines what’s next. Read more

What’s Hot @WFS.ORG (Members Only)

A selection of articles, special reports, and other future-focused material on our Web site that you might have missed. Members may sign in to read and comment. Not a member? Join now at http://www.wfs.org/renew.

Relationships, Community, and Identity in the New Virtual Society

By Arnold Brown

THE FUTURIST — March-April 2011

As we spend more of our social lives online, the definitions of relationships and families are shifting. A business futurist offers an overview of these trends and what they imply for organizations in the coming years.

Plus: Avatars and Virtual Immortality

By William Sims Bainbridge

Already, many people have information technology agents, but these agents are so simple we do not ordinarily think of them as such.

World Trends & Forecasts: The High Cost of Bad Habits / Demographic Impacts on Climate Change

THE FUTURIST — March-April 2011

March 2011, Vol. 12, No. 3

In this issue:

  • Harvard Recommends Deemphasizing College Education
  • Internet Nears 2 Billion Users, Worldwide
  • Carbon Dioxide’s Impacts on Plant Evolution
  • Cities Play Role in Wage Inequality
  • What’s Hot @WFS.ORG (Members Only)
    • Understanding Technological Evolution and Diversity
    • Health Care Special Feature
    • Demographic Impacts on Climate Change
  • What’s Hot @WFS.ORG (Public)
    • The Futurist Interviews Space Expert Edgar Choueri
    • Future Active: News from the Futurist Community
    • What Hath Hawking Wrought?

Harvard Report Calls For Less Emphasis on College Education

“College for all” has been the mantra of education reform for decades. A new report from Harvard Graduate School of Education argues that greater emphasis on vocational training, apprenticeships, and technical job training outside of a formal college setting would better serve America’s young people.

“Behaving as though four-year college is the only acceptable route to success clearly still works well for many young adults, especially students fortunate enough to attend highly selective colleges and universities. It also works well for affluent students, who can often draw on family and social connections to find their way in the adult world. But it clearly does not work well for many, especially young men,” say the researchers in their report, Pathways to Prosperity: Meeting the Challenge of Preparing Young Americans for the 21st Century.

They point to the fact that men make up only 43% of enrolled students on American college campuses, that 30% of African Americans and fewer than 20% of Latinos in their mid-20s have an associate’s degree. The United States now has the highest college dropout rate in the industrialized world.

Most other advanced nations, notably Germany, place more emphasis on vocational training in high school. Structured programs that combine work and learning better enable adolescents to grasp how they’ll market and use their skills in the real world. “Consequently, these [vocational training] programs are not designed to serve those with a history of school failure.”

Read the full report here: http://www.gse.harvard.edu/news_events/features/2011/Pathways_to_Prosperity_Feb2011.pdf

Internet Nears 2 Billion Users Worldwide

The Internet reached 1.97 billion users worldwide in 2010, according to market research by Internet World Stats. Among the chief areas of growth were Twitter and Facebook, which saw 100 million and 250 million new users, respectively.

According to Twitter’s internal data, 25 billion “tweets” were sent in 2010. Asia led the world in Internet users, with some 825 million people online compared with 266 million in North America. However, North America led in percentage of population online, with 77% of Americans, Canadians, and Mexicans having access to the Internet, versus 21% of Asians.

Almost 30% of the global population now uses the Internet, which grew 14% in 2010, putting it on track to exceed 2 billion users by the end of this year.

Sources:
Internet World Stats: http://www.internetworldstats.com/stats.htm
Twitter Blog: http://blog.twitter.com/2010/12/stocking-stuffer.html
Business Insider: http://www.businessinsider.com/facebook-has-more-than-600-million-users-goldman-tells-clients-2011-1
RoyalPingdom: http://royal.pingdom.com/2011/01/12/internet-2010-in-numbers/

Rising Carbon-Dioxide Levels Could Change Plant Evolution

Increased carbon-dioxide levels could alter what sorts of plants thrive, which plants die off, and how plants interact with insects in the future, according to scientists at the University of Michigan at Ann Arbor.

The researchers studied how different species of milkweed responded to increased levels of CO2. They found that the exposed plants tended to grow larger, but different species responded to elevated CO2 levels in strikingly different ways.

For instance, most of the plants responded to the extra carbon dioxide by decreasing their levels of cardenolide, a toxin that works to fend off insects, but some milkweed strains increased their production of the poison. Many caterpillars that feed off of milkweed are very picky about the plants they eat and are likely to be more attracted to those with less poison, giving the more toxic milkweed strains a competitive advantage that could spread throughout the population, or cause other unforeseen effects.

Source: University of Michigan http://ns.umich.edu/htdocs/releases/story.php?id=8268

Cities Play Role in Wage Inequality

The United States has a higher degree of wage inequality than almost any other Western industrialized country. The average American CEO brings in more than 10 times what he or she would have earned in the 1970s and 300 times more than the average worker. A new study from researchers at the University of Rochester and Brown provides a surprising explanation: City size is one the main drivers of wage inequality.

“Demographic groups and industries disproportionately located in larger cities experienced larger increases in their wage dispersion in larger cities than in smaller cities,” authors Ronni Pavan and Nathaniel Baum-Snow write in their study.

In cities like New York, Los Angeles, and Chicago, capital and technology are more readily available; the labor pool is larger; and markets are more accessible. In other words, it’s much easier to get incredibly rich in a big city than it is in the rural countryside. It’s also easier to command higher pay for higher skills, but harder to command average pay for mediocre skills.

“The skill premium has grown more in larger cities than in smaller cities and rural areas,” they write.

Source: University of Rochester http://www.rochester.edu/news/show.php?id=3762

Read the paper: Inequality and City Size by Nathaniel Baum-Snow and Ronni Pavan, University of Rochester http://tinyurl.com/4rubmw6

What’s Hot @WFS.ORG (Members Only)

A selection of articles, special reports, and other future-focused material on our Web site that you might have missed. Members may sign in to read and comment. Not a member? Join now at http://www.wfs.org/renew.

Understanding Technological Evolution and Diversity

By Kevin Kelly

THE FUTURIST — March-April 2011

From the depths of the Amazon basin to the streets of Tokyo, technology is always evolving. Here, a Wired founding editor describes what technology wants — and what we can learn from observing the “technium,” the technological ecosystem. Read more.

Health Care Special Feature

THE FUTURIST — March-April 2011

From Hospital to Healthspital: A Better Paradigm for Health Care by Frank W. Maletz; Health Insurance in America After the Reform by Jay Herson and David Pearce Snyder; Could Medical Tourism Aid Health-Care Delivery? by Prema Nakra; Bike to the Future By Kenneth W. Harris

Demographic Impacts on Climate Change

By Aaron M. Cohen

THE FUTURIST — March-April 2011

Scenarios examine effects of population size, age, and migration on carbon emissions. Read more

What’s Hot @WFS.ORG (Public)

The Futurist Interviews Space Expert Edgar Choueri

By Rick Docksai

Future Active: News from the Futurist Community

By Aaron M. Cohen

THE FUTURIST — March-April 2011

What Hath Hawking Wrought?

By Edward Cornish

THE FUTURIST — March-April 2011

February 2011, Vol. 12, No. 2

In this issue:

  • Soundless Submarines
  • Interactive Window Shopping
  • Faster Battery Recharging
  • MIT Report Calls for More Interdisciplinary Research
  • Energy Demand Could Skyrocket by 2050
  • New Year’s Prediction Roundup 2011
  • What’s Hot @WFS.ORG (Public)
    • State of the World Dispatch
    • Dangerous Times: The Futurist Interviews Christopher Fettweis
    • Your Spring 2011 Futurist Reading List
  • What’s Hot @WFS.ORG (Members Only)
    • A Convenient Truth About Clean Energy
    • Pleasure, Beauty, and Wonder: Educating for the Knowledge Age
    • The Coming of the Terabyters: Lifelogging for a Living

Soundless Submarines Are Closing In

A cloaking technology that bends sound waves could render submarines and other underwater objects undetectable to sonar or ultrasound sensors. The technique, developed by researchers at the University of Illinois, employs a highly engineered “metamaterial” to bend the waves around an object, much as light is bent to make objects invisible.

Stealth submarines are an obvious potential military application for acoustic cloaking, but the researchers also see possible medical applications, since many medical scans rely on sound waves. The metamaterial could theoretically be used in a bandage that would curb disruption or interference from other body parts that sometimes interfere with ultrasound scanning, thus making these scans more accurate.

Source: University of Illinois http://engineering.illinois.edu/news/2011/01/05/newly-developed-cloak-hides-underwater-objects-sonar

Interactive Store Windows Watch You Watching Them

A new interactive store window will allow passersby to shop even after store hours. Researchers at the Fraunhofer Institute in Germany have developed a system using a series of cameras to take detailed pictures of potential customers as they approach the store window. A software program then transforms the shoppers’ hand and eye movements and facial expressions into commands.

For instance, if a woman points to a designer handbag in the window, an image of it will appear on a display behind the shop window. When she points to a button, the handbag rotates on the screen to give the shopper the full view.

The system is still in prototype phase, but the Fraunhofer researchers will be demonstrating it at the CeBit Fair in Hannover, Germany, March 1–5, 2011.

Source: Fraunhofer Institute for Applied Information Technology, http://www.fraunhofer.de/en/press/research-news/2010-2011/13/interactive-window-shopping.jsp

New Material Could Reduce Charge-Time for Batteries by a Factor of 40

Lithium-ion batteries can charge far faster than they do in most laptops, but rapid charging exposes these batteries to premature failure. Now, researchers at Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute have developed a new nanomaterial that could allow lithium-ion batteries to charge 40 times faster.

Dubbed a “nanoscoop” because of the distinctly ice cream cone-like shape of the particles, the material absorbs the stress that occurs when battery anodes are charged rapidly.

“Charging my laptop or cell phone in a few minutes, rather than an hour, sounds pretty good to me,” says engineering professor Nikhil Koratkar. Electric automobiles may also one day benefit from the breakthrough.

Results of the project will be published in the journal Nano Letters.

Source: Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute http://news.rpi.edu/update.do

Download the paper: http://pubs.acs.org/doi/abs/10.1021/nl102981d

MIT Report Calls for More Interdisciplinary Research

The ongoing merger of life, physical, and engineering sciences could revolutionize biomedicine, MIT researchers claim in a new white paper. The report authors call this fusing of disciplines convergence.

Successful examples of convergence in the fields of medicine, engineering, and computer science include brain grafts for treating cerebral disorders and injury, computational biology for immune response, and imaging technology to prevent blindness.

The report says that, in order for convergence to meet its fullest potential, the National Institutes of Health should encourage investigation that crosses research disciplines. The agency should also reform the peer-review process for interdisciplinary grants, the researchers contend.

Source: MIT http://web.mit.edu/newsoffice/2011/convergence-0104.html

More-Populous World May Demand 16 Times More Energy by 2050

If the global population rises to 9.5 billion by 2050, and every one of those people adopts the American standard of living, global energy demand could increase by a factor of 16 according to a recent paper by a team of University of New Mexico biologists and other researchers.

The article published in the journal BioScience finds that that low infant mortality, electronics consumption per person, and various other high-standard-of-living variables are closely correlated with energy consumption per person.

“The vast majority of nations we analyzed (74%) increased both energy use and GDP from 1980 to 2003 and exhibited positive correlations [in standard of living] across the 24 years. For example, from 1850 to 2000, while the global human population grew fivefold, world energy use increased 20-fold and fossil fuel-use rose more than 150-fold,” the authors write.

Correlation is not the same as causation. The researchers acknowledge the possibility that future technologies may make the U.S. standard of living less energy intensive. Regardless, the correlations they point out are compelling in the light of continued global dependence on fossil fuels.

Sources: http://www.aibs.org/bioscience-press-releases/110107_study_finds_energy_limits_global_economic_growth.html

Download the full paper: http://www.aibs.org/bioscience-press-releases/resources/Davidson.pdf

New Year’s Prediction Roundup 2011

The beginning of a new year always brings with it a flood of predictions appearing in various media outlets. This year was no exception.

IBM announced its annual list of Five Innovations That Will Change Our Lives in the Next Five years. This year’s list included 3-D telepresence, transistors that will improve the storage capacity of batteries by a factor of 10, the sensor-smart grid, predictive analytics for personalized commutes, and temperature efficient data-storage centers. (IBM is in the process of developing products along all these lines, of course.)

The site Ilookforwardto.com ran a list of 10 diseases that will find cures 2020, including Alzheimer’s.

Journalist and tech-watcher Galen Gruman, writing for InfoWorld, added a list of technology predictions for the next decade. Among his forecasts: iPhones and tablet PC sales will surpass laptop sales by 2014. By 2020, says Gruman, “miniaturization and image-projection technologies, coupled with previous 3D gesture technologies, allow mobile devices to be wearable components that combine wirelessly with each other and other nearby devices to provide a less obtrusive mobile computing environment.”

The dawn of 2011 also saw a number of stories taking a more reflective approach to the perennial look ahead.

The New York Times ran a series in its Opinion section under the topic heading: “Why Do We Need Predictions?” Contributing authors included inventor and futurist Ray Kurzweil, Pulitzer Prize–winning writer Stacy Schiff, and Harvard psychologist David Ropeik, the later of which predicted a “bright future for futurism.”

Chris Morris, writing for the Web site Bankrate.com, put together a list of five banking predictions that missed the mark, which included the demise of the credit card.

ABC World News ran a year-end report on predictions made by top thinkers back 1931 and sought out World Future Society president Tim Mack for comment. They were “people who were in business, people who were prominent because of one expertise and they were asked to suddenly assume an expertise in an area they hadn't thought much about,” Mack said on behalf of his forecasting predecessors, whose rather fanciful forecasts included such things as an air-car hangar in every home.

Mack was also featured on a Voice of America broadcast that aired internationally, where he shared some recent forecasts from THE FUTURIST magazine.

Sources:

What’s Hot @WFS.ORG (Public)

A selection of articles, special reports, and other future-focused material on our Web site that you might have missed. Members may sign in to read and comment. Not a member? Join now at http://www.wfs.org/renew.

State of the World Dispatch

Web Exclusive

Major changes are under way in developing-world agriculture, said presenters at the Worldwatch Institute’s 15th annual State of the World Symposium. The event’s presenters discussed many new techniques that African farmers are adopting and never-before-seen partnerships that they are forming with nonprofit organizations, businesses, and government agencies to increase crop yields and relieve world hunger while simultaneously battling climate change and environmental degradation. Rick Docksai reports. Read more.

Dangerous Times: The Futurist Interviews Christopher Fettweis

Web Exclusive

The twenty-first century will probably be the most peaceful hundred years in human history, according to Christopher Fettweis, Tulane University political scientist and author of Dangerous Times? The International Politics of Great Power Peace. In this interview with WFS editor Rick Docksai, Fettweis considers ongoing conflicts in Afghanistan, Iraq, and other global hotspots as exceptions to—rather than rules of—modern geopolitics. Read more

Your Spring 2011 Futurist Reading List

Michael Marien presents this list of more than 114 forthcoming books of relevance to futurists ... and anyone else looking to make a brighter tomorrow for themselves, their organization, or the planet in 2011. The list includes titles on medicine, economics, the environment, government, education, business, and technology. Read more

Take our poll! What does it take to be a futurist?

http://www.wfs.org/content/what-does-it-take-be-futurist

What’s Hot @WFS.ORG (Members Only)

A Convenient Truth About Clean Energy

By Carl E. Schoder

THE FUTURIST — January-February 2011

The Earth is awash in energy; we just need new infrastructure to tap it. A chemical engineer shows how we could break free of fossil fuels by deploying the power of ammonia and hydrogen. Read more

Pleasure, Beauty, and Wonder: Educating for the Knowledge Age

By John M. Eger

THE FUTURIST — January-February 2011

The future workforce will need to be more innovative, argues a communications and public policy scholar. While math and science are important, they need to be infused with the creative spark that comes from the arts. Read more

The Coming of the Terabyters: Lifelogging for a Living

By Thomas Frey

THE FUTURIST — January-February 2011

A new breed of workers, equipped with über-geek data-capturing tools, are about to usher in a whole new information era. Read more

January 2011, Vol. 12, No. 1

In this issue:

Batteries Not Included

U.S. policy makers may have lofty goals for moving the United States toward wind and solar energy, but if they’re going to realize those ambitions, they’ll have to invest more in battery and superconducting technology. This is according to a newly issued report from the American Physical Society, entitled Integrating Renewable Electricity on the Grid. The report also calls for a national renewable electricity standard to help to unify the fragmented U.S. grid system — an important step in the wider adoption more wind and solar power.

Among the report’s other recommendations:

  • The U.S. Department of Energy should devote more research dollars to basic electrochemistry research to identify the materials best suited to a twenty-first-century electric grid.
  • The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission should put together a marketing white paper (also called a business case), laying out the costs, benefits, and possible implementation strategies for renewable power generation. They can then use this in deciding on a regulatory framework.
  • The National Weather Service and other weather forecasting agencies should settle on a uniform standard when describing how much (or how little) power might be obtained from wind under different conditions.

“We need to move faster to have storage ready to accommodate, for example, 20% of renewable electricity on the grid by 2020,” says George Crabtree of Argonne National Laboratory, who served on the report writing committee. “By devoting the necessary resources to the problem, I am confident that we can solve it.”

Source: American Physical Society: http://www.aps.org/about/pressreleases/integratingelec.cfm

Too Much Texting Leads to Risky Behaviors, Study Finds

Teenagers who send more than 120 text messages per school day are 84% more likely to have used illegal drugs, were almost twice as likely to have been in a physical fight, and were far more likely to have engaged in a variety of “risky behaviors” such as smoking and binge drinking, according to a new study from Case Western Reserve University.

“The startling results of this study suggest that, when left unchecked, texting and other widely popular methods of staying connected are associated with unhealthy behaviors among teenagers,” says Scott Frank, lead researcher on the study. “This may be a wake-up call for parents to open a dialogue with their kids about the extent of texting and social networking they are involved with and about what is happening in the rest of their lives.”

Frank admits that the data doesn’t indicate that social networking is a direct cause of risky behavior, only that there is a clear overlap. So while some sort of relationship exists, the nature of it remains murky.

The findings of the report were presented at the American Public Health Association’s November 2010 meeting in Denver.

Source: Case Western Reserve University, http://case.edu/think/breakingnews/hypertexting.html

A New International Network for Climate Monitoring

The recently concluded United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change in Cancun, Mexico, may not have produced the breakthrough international agreement on carbon reduction that many were hoping for, but at least one good partnership has come out of the event.

The World Resources Institute (WRI) used the convention to put together a global network to track countries’ progress toward cutting emissions and supporting environmental efforts in developing countries. The Open Climate Network (OCN) will bring together independent research institutes around the world to “provide consistent and peer-reviewed information on major economies’ actions on climate change,” according to a WRI statement.

“Major economies have made high-level commitments to tackle climate change, but it has been difficult to access information about their progress that is consistent and trusted at the international level.… OCN fills this gap by tapping the world’s leading research institutes to develop a highly credible source of information about countries’ progress,” said Jennifer Morgan of WRI.

Researchers hope the network will improve upon the work of official agencies doing climate and carbon reporting. This may reduce disputes about different countries’ claims about carbon and climate change. Another goal of the network is to provide financial support to developing countries to preserve wild forests and vegetation (to absorb carbon).

To date, OCN partners include institutes and think tanks from Australia, Canada, China, Denmark, France, Mexico, India, and Japan, among others. WRI hopes to add additional partners from the UK, Brazil, and South Africa soon.

Source: World Resources Institute, http://www.wri.org/press/2010/12/news-release-independent-global-network-launched-track-countries-climate-change-progre

The Future of THE FUTURIST

Edward Cornish, the founder of the World Future Society, has announced that he will be transitioning to a new role at THE FUTURIST magazine as futurist-in-residence. Cornish first began work on THE FUTURIST in 1965, which he originally conceived as a newsletter for the Society.

“While I was pondering what to call my projected newsletter, Time magazine solved my problem by publishing an extraordinary essay entitled, ‘THE FUTURISTS: Looking Toward A.D. 2000’ (February 25, 1966). This essay focused on precisely the kind of people whose work fascinated me, such as Herman Kahn, Olaf Helmer, Buckminster Fuller, and Bertrand de Jouvenel,” Cornish recalls in his memoirs.

He continues, “By referring to them as ‘futurists’ Time had validated the term.… Strongly encouraged by this development, I began preparing a prototype newsletter called THE FUTURIST based on my collection of newspaper articles, books, reports, etc., related to the future.” THE FUTURIST magazine first appeared as a formal magazine in 1967.

Cornish’s memoirs, The Search for Foresight, describing the birth of the World Future Society are available for free online at http://www.wfs.org/content/search-for-foresight.

Cynthia Wagner, long-time managing editor, will take over as editor of THE FUTURIST magazine.

What’s Hot @WFS.ORG (Members Only)

A selection of articles, special reports, and other future-focused material on our Web site that you might have missed. Members may sign in to read and comment. Not a member? Join now at http://www.wfs.org/renew.

Special Section: 70 Jobs for 2030

THE FUTURIST — January-February 2011

“Job creation” starts with innovative thinking, so we invited some of the best futurist minds to envision where the ground may be most fertile for future opportunities.

The Future of Medicine: Are Custom-Printed Organs on the Horizon?

By Vladimir Mironov

THE FUTURIST — January-February 2011

Medical researchers are creating robots that can bioprint new tissue and organs directly into patients’ bodies while performing surgery — without assistance from doctors. Read more

Outlook 2011

THE FUTURIST — November-December 2010

Recent Forecasts from the World Future Society for the Decade Ahead

In the next 10 to 30 years, society will have to learn to deal with “peak everything” — an epoch of critical scarcities of a broad range of resources. Unexpected sources of expertise — such as physicists advising us about the economy — will guide us through hard times. And genetic tampering with crops will gain more acceptance if it solves critical environmental and resource problems, such as resistance to climate change and reducing the release of carbon into the atmosphere.

These are just a few of the forecasts in the latest edition of the World Future Society’s annual Outlook report, in which the editors have selected the most thought-provoking forecasts and ideas appearing in THE FUTURIST over the past year. These are not “predictions,” but rather glimpses of what may happen, warnings of potential problems that could be avoided, or prescriptions for better futures we may wish to begin working toward. Read more

Asia Redraws the Map of Progress

By Joergen Oerstroem Moeller

THE FUTURIST — September-October 2010

Over the last 30 years, unique opportunities for high and persistent economic growth have blessed Asia, and policy makers grabbed them with both hands. Global growth was high, commodity prices were low, and a growing labor force turned China into the world’s top manufacturer. Meanwhile, there was not much pressure to heed environmental warnings. The policy challenge for Asia’s political leaders was primarily to manage economic growth. All of that is changing. This article draws from his forthcoming book, How Asia Can Shape the World, which he will discuss at WorldFuture 2011. Read more

What’s Hot @WFS.ORG (Public)

The World Is My School: Welcome to the Era of Personalized Learning

By Maria H. Andersen

THE FUTURIST — January-February 2011

Future learning will become both more social and more personal, says an educational technology expert. Read more

THE FUTURIST Interviews Open-Source Expert Josh Lerner

Web Exclusive

In The Comingled Code, Josh Lerner and Mark Schankerman describe the open-source phenomenon and the ways in which it will, or will not, benefit the different types of businesses, organizations, and government agencies that use it. Read more

Tomorrow’s Interactive Television

By John Smart

THE FUTURIST — November-December 2010

There is not nearly enough quality choice, specialization, and personalization on television, argues technology forecaster John Smart. He says that access to tens of thousands of specialty channels, a variety of content-aggregation options, and collaborative filtering by peer and trusted expert rankings would better serve U.S. social needs. Such a system will enable all those who wish to do so to eliminate unpersonalized advertising. What we need, according to Smart, is two-way communication: person-to-person and many-to-many, not one-to-many. The iPad is the first step. Read more

Note: Smart presented on the future of television at a TedX event in Del Mar in June, 2010. Catch the video here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L6qaI_PJtdg.

Calling All Inventors

Do you have an idea or gadget you would like to showcase at WorldFuture 2011? World Future Society conferences are great opportunities to meet with potential sponsors and network with fellow visionaries, scientists, engineers and designers from around the world. If you think you’ve created the Next Big Breakthrough, let us know at info@wfs.org

Futurist Update 2010 Issues

December 2010, Vol. 11, No. 12

In This Issue:

  • What Stock Traders Can Learn in the Forest
  • Global Warming of Lakes
  • Growing Demand for Safer Food
  • Jobs for World Changers
  • Click of the Month: Superfluid
  • What’s Hot @WFS.ORG

SEEING THE SIGNALS OF STRESS

Volatility in systems tend to precede crises. This phenomenon is observed in cancer and heart disease patients as well as in forests subject to environmental stressors, according to research led by mathematician Alexander Gorban of the University of Leicester in the U.K.

Similarly, monitoring the stresses in financial systems could help analysts foresee changes in stock market prices, as the systems adapt to changing conditions. Gorban’s team found that, as a crisis approaches, systems become more dependent on each other but react differently.

According to the study, stocks and share prices on the FTSE 100 during 2008 became more interdependent and volatile as that index declined; as the system failed to adapt to changing circumstances in the market, the system became less connected and more volatile, suggesting a crash.

SOURCE: University of Leicester http://bit.ly/e5XYa5

DETAILS: “Correlations, Risk and Crisis: From Physiology to Finance” by A. N. Gorban, E. V. Smirnova, and T. A. Tyukina, PHYSICA A (Vol. 389, Issue 16, 2010). Preprint: http://arxiv.org/abs/0905.0129

WARMING LAKES

Temperatures of the world’s 167 largest lakes have increased by an average of 0.8 degrees Fahrenheit per decade during the past 25 years, according to NASA researchers using satellite data to measure surface temperatures.

Though the trend is global, it is more pronounced in the Northern Hemisphere; the most warming has occurred in northern Europe, note the researchers.

Water temperature changes affect such phenomena as algal blooms, which can make lakes toxic to native fish or more hospitable to invading nonnative species, the researchers warn.

SOURCE: National Aeronautics and Space Administration http://www.nasa.gov/home/hqnews/2010/nov/HQ_10-308_Global_Lakes.html

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OXFORD DIPLOMA IN STRATEGY AND INNOVATION

Four Modules: January, March, June, September (beginning 26th January 2011), Programme fee £15,000, Saïd Business School, University of Oxford.

This part-time, masters-level Diploma for experienced executives focuses on strategy, innovation, and entrepreneurship in an international business context. It will enable you to take effective strategic decisions and innovate for competitive advantage. Only a few places are left for the January 2011 start!

DETAILS/CONTACT: http://www.sbs.oxford.edu/Dipstrategy, sarah.hayton@sbs.ox.ac.uk

DEMAND FOR FOOD-SAFETY PRODUCTS PROJECTED TO INCREASE

The demand for products that help ensure a safer food supply may see accelerating growth in the next three years, according to research by The Freedonia Group.

Disinfectants, diagnostic products, smart labels and tags, software, and tracking systems are among the sectors expected to see gains as consumer reaction to food contamination cases and stricter safety regulations contribute to growing demand.

Worldwide, demand for food-safety products grew at an average of 7.8% per year between 2004 and 2009; Freedonia projects this to increase to 8.1% per year between 2009 and 2014.

DETAILS: “World Food Safety Products” (November 2010, 315 pages) is available for $5,800 from The Freedonia Group Inc. http://www.freedoniagroup.com.

JOBS FOR WORLD CHANGERS

Can you get paid to change the world? Careers in public service are suddenly “cool” again, according to career services director Heather Krasna of the University of Washington’s Evans School of Public Affairs.

In her new book, JOBS THAT MATTER, Krasna defines “public service” jobs as not just government work, but also careers at universities and other learning institutions, as well as nonprofit and nongovernmental organizations and many segments of the private sector devoted to improving the world.

Krasna offers exercises for defining one’s dreams and clarifying the steps to achieve them and narrowing down the aspect of the world that you want to improve, such as children’s issues, civil rights, or urban development.

JOBS THAT MATTER by Heather Krasna (JIST Publishing, 2010, $14.95): http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/1593577877/thefuturistbooks

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VISIONARIES SEEK ACTION AT WORLDFUTURE 2011!

The World Future Society’s conference WorldFuture 2011: Moving from Vision to Action, to be held July 8-10, in Vancouver, British Columbia, will focus on developing specific action plans for meeting--and getting ahead of--the challenges we face now.

Approximately 150 speakers will offer their latest insights and strategies in governance, education, law enforcement, futures methodologies, marketing, and much more. Newly confirmed speakers include:

  • Peter Bishop, associate professor in the College of Technology and director of the graduate program in Futures Studies at the University of Houston, Clearwater, Texas
  • Michael Buerger, faculty member at Bowling Green State University, member of the PFI/FBI Futures Working Group, Bowling Green, Ohio
  • Timothy M. Daniel, chief, Strategy and Integration Office, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Washington, D.C.
  • Sheila Murray, chair, Canadian committee for the Club of Rome, Ottawa, ON, Canada
  • Ruben Nelson, executive director of Foresight Canada. He is Canada's most widely experienced teacher and practitioner of the next generation of strategic foresight. Lac des Arcs, AB, Canada
  • Suzanne Stein, associate professor, Foresight, OCAD University, Toronto, ON, Canada
  • Edie Weiner, vice president, Weiner, Edrich, Brown, Inc., co-author, FUTURETHINK, New York, New York

CLICK OF THE MONTH: SUPERFLUID

https://www.thesuperfluid.com/

Superfluid is a mechanism for providing “social currency,” hence facilitating the exchange of services via social networking.

Members of the network earn “Quids” through collaborative work; Quids may also be borrowed against future contributions of goods or services to other members.

Two levels of superfluid participation are available: Activities deemed to have commercial, monetary value are managed in superfluid:business while other, noncommercial activities are managed on the superfluid:p2p side.

Douglas Rushkoff, one of the World Future Society’s 2020 Visionaries (“Life Dollars: Finding Currency in Community,” THE FUTURIST, September-October 2010) is now chief officer of Superfluid.

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ATTENTION FUTURIST SHOPPERS!

As you’re shopping for the perfect gifts for friends, family, and colleagues, you can also give a gift to the World Future Society simply by using GoodShop and selecting WFS as your designated charity:

GoodShop: http://www.goodshop.com/?charityid=845602

Thank you for your support!

WHAT’S HOT @WFS.ORG

* CHANGE IS GONNA COME: Beginning with the January 2011 edition, FUTURIST UPDATE, the World Future Society’s free e-mail newsletter, gets an all-new design, new content--and a new editor! As I step down to focus more on THE FUTURIST magazine, please join me in welcoming WFS communications director Patrick Tucker to the UPDATE helm.

* FUTURIST OF THE YEAR: Whose work in the past 12 months has contributed most to the field of futurism? Nominations for the Edward Cornish Award: Futurist of the Year close on December 31. The award will be presented at WorldFuture 2011 in Vancouver on July 10. There is no fee to submit a nomination, nor is there a monetary award for the winner. GUIDELINES http://bit.ly/bVkJvi or http://www.wfs.org/content/edward-cornish-award-futurist-year

* ON THE BLOG ROLL: Don’t miss these thought-provoking posts by the Society’s growing roster of futurist bloggers. (Remember, World Future Society members may log in and comment freely on all blogs and articles):

“TWITTERING the Twitter Revolution Means It’s Not a Revolution,” observes Samuel Gerald Collins, reporting from the American Anthropological Association meeting. The focus on new technologies distracts us from what the tools are meant to be used for, he warns. READ MORE http://bit.ly/ic4twx, or http://www.wfs.org/content/twittering-twitter-revolution-means-it%E2%80%99s-not-revolution

- “APPLYING Futures Knowledge Consciously” requires an understanding both of the thinking process and of how the futures work is intended to be used. Alireza Hejazi explains the concept of "futures metacognition." READ MORE http://bit.ly/gZa5Tq or http://www.wfs.org/content/applying-futures-knowledge-consciously

- “THE EMERGENCE of a Global She-conomy” will have a major impact on everything from education to marketing and branding to fertility levels, says business futurist Erica Orange. READ MORE http://bit.ly/dNFbFU" or http://www.wfs.org/content/emergence-global-%E2%80%9Cshe-conomy%E2%80%9D

- “ANALYZING YOUR PERSONAL PLAN”: Personal-futures consultant Verne Wheelwright shows how to put the three parts of your plan together--vision, action, and contingencies. READ MORE http://bit.ly/gmWadW or http://www.wfs.org/content/analyzing-your-personal-plan

- “FROM CHARITY to Commitment and Action”: Reporting from a seminar on sustainable leadership at the Hunger Project in Sweden, Natascha Marxmeier offers ideas on how to make development assistance more effective. READ MORE http://bit.ly/e5Q2zM or http://www.wfs.org/content/charity-commitment-and-action-%E2%80%93-how-find-new-ways-development-assistance

- “GREAT RECESSION Shrinks Time Horizons--and Pantries,” observes David H. Rosen. Tightening the budget means not taking advantage of stocking up for the future, as consumers buy more on an as-needed basis. READ MORE http://bit.ly/gHr3E5 or http://www.wfs.org/content/great-recession-shrinks-time-horizons-and-pantries

- “THE FUTURIST PLAYLIST”: What do Bob Dylan, the Jonas Brothers, Robert Downey Jr., and Little Orphan Annie have in common? All are included in the semi-official Futurist Playlist of songs about the future, compiled by FUTURIST UPDATE departing editor Cindy Wagner. READ MORE http://bit.ly/fQpxQU" or http://www.wfs.org/content/futurist-playlist

JOIN OR RENEW your WFS membership now to join in the conversation! http://www.wfs.org/renew

November 2010, Vol. 11, No. 11

In This Issue:

  • Thrivals 3.0 and a Festival of Ideas
  • Saving the Ogallala
  • End of McMansions?
  • Jailhouse Lab
  • Click of the Month: Global Foresight Books
  • News for the Futurist Community
  • What’s Hot @WFS.ORG

THRIVALS 3.0 AND A FESTIVAL OF IDEAS

University of Louisville business professor Nat Irvin recently organized Thrivals 3.0, a daylong future-oriented conference held on September 29, 2010, in Louisville, Kentucky. The event, part of the annual Idea Festival, billed itself as “a way of thinking and learning about the broad social, political, environmental, economic and technological trends that are shaping the mid- to long-term future now.” And, notably, it was geared toward young people. Most of the 600 or so attendees were under 25, and half were under the age of 18.

Speaking with FUTURIST UPDATE, Irvin described the conference as “a fun, mind-bending, future-focused learning event bringing together people of all different ages, ethnicities, and races.” Thrivals, according to Irvin, are young, multicultural, multidisciplinary, future-oriented people who are motivated to excel in every field—in other words, to thrive, not merely survive.

Presenters included Howard Bloom, author of The Global Brain (Wiley & Sons, 2000); humanitarian and direct trade coffee entrepreneur David Robinson; and Grammy-nominated recording artist Janelle Monáe, along with the Wondaland Arts Society collective. Monáe, a self-identified Thrival who has been described by Pitchfork as a “genre-flouting singer-songwriter-dancer-futurist,” also performed an evening concert at the close of the event. Between sessions, attendees formed groups, or “thrival hives,” to brainstorm together on various future-oriented topics.

Irvin wrote about his concept of Thrivals for THE FUTURIST magazine: “The Arrival of the Thrivals,” March-April 2004.

DETAILS: Nat Irvin II, mailto:nat.irvin@louisville.edu. The Idea Festival, http://www.ideafestival.com. Thrival self test, http://cobweb2.louisville.edu/thrivals.

Link to Flickr photos: http://www.flickr.com/groups/1535603@N23/pool/with/5037417358/

SAVING THE OGALLALA

The Ogallala Aquifer’s ability to continue supplying water to America’s “bread basket” is in jeopardy, warns hydrogeologist David Hyndman of Michigan State University.

For the past 80 years, withdrawals for irrigation have far exceeded the aquifer’s ability to replenish itself, and this vast underground system--storing nearly as much water as lakes Erie and Huron combined--is shrinking.

Hyndman is now leading an interdisciplinary team of researchers to analyze the dynamics among hydrological, atmospheric, agricultural, regulatory, and socioeconomic systems to generate predictions and impact assessments of various solutions for protecting the Ogallala’s future--and that of its users.

“Navigating a patchwork of state laws, regulations, and economics means any change will require complex solutions. And since scientific solutions don’t exist in a vacuum, our plan will also address social and economic variables,” says Hyndman.

SOURCE: Michigan State University http://news.msu.edu/story/8467/

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GETTING AHEAD OF CHANGE AT WORLDFUTURE 2011!

The World Future Society’s conference WorldFuture 2011: Moving from Vision to Action, to be held July 8-10, in Vancouver, BC, Canada, will focus on developing specific action plans for meeting--and getting ahead of--the challenges we face now.

Approximately 150 speakers will offer their latest insights and strategies; among the speakers already confirmed are:

  • Aubrey De Grey, cutting-edge expert on human longevity and co-author of “Ending Aging.”
  • Maria H. Andersen, Learning Futurist at The LIFT Institute, Higher Education Editor at eLearn Magazine, and member of the math faculty at Muskegon Community College in Michigan.
  • Jared Weiner, business futurist and vice president of Weiner, Edrich, Brown, Inc.
  • Lawson Brigham, Arctic futures specialist and professor at University of Alaska Fairbanks.

The conference will also give you the opportunity to make connections and expand your thinking in a wide range of areas, including technology, education, health, business, families, communities, work trends, social change, the environment and resources, globalization, governance, futures methodologies, and much more. In addition, keynote speakers and special events will focus on significant global issues and breakthrough ideas.

END OF McMANSIONS?

Single-family houses in the United States are shrinking, and the trend is likely to extend well beyond the end of the recession, predicts the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB).

New homes have dropped to a median size of 2,100 square feet, down from a peak of 2,268 square feet in 2006. NAHB attributes the decline to home buyers’ desire to minimize energy costs, a tighter credit market, and a reduced interest in home buying as an investment.

Median sales prices for new homes have also dropped, from $256,000 in 2006 to $211,000 in 2009, a 17.6% decline.

SOURCE: National Association of Home Builders http://www.nahb.org/news_details.aspx?sectionID=148&newsID=11485

JAILHOUSE LAB

Using prisoners to help unlock nature’s mysteries is the goal of a National Science Foundation research project led by forest ecologist Nalini Nadkarni.

Inmates at the Stafford Creek Corrections Center in Aberdeen, Washington, assist researchers by planting seeds and recording their observations on plant growth.

Nadkarni’s goal is to learn how best to cultivate the dwindling prairie plants, but she notes that the inmates’ learning is equally valuable: “Everyone can be a scientist--everyone can relate to nature, everyone can contribute to the scientific enterprise, even those who are shut away from nature.”

The project may also serve as a model for other prisons to provide useful skills to inmates and meet the scientists’ need for reliable research collaborators.

SOURCE: National Science Foundation http://www.nsf.gov/news/special_reports/science_nation/sciencebehindbars.jsp?WT.mc_id=USNSF_196

CLICK OF THE MONTH: GLOBAL FORESIGHT BOOKS

www.globalforesightbooks.org

Former FUTURE SURVEY editor Michael Marien has developed a virtual library of futures literature that promises to help make policy making more integrative and visionary.

This database of searchable abstracts covers more than 1,600 titles published in 2009 and 2010, with Marien’s authoritative perspective on the works that offer the most significant, paradigm-changing ideas.

The cross-disciplinary nature of the titles Marien chooses makes the Global Foresight Books database an invaluable resource for policy makers worldwide and in every field.

NEWS FOR THE FUTURIST COMMUNITY

* FUTURE-ORIENTED TECHNOLOGY ANALYSIS: The Fourth International Seville Conference on Future-Oriented Technology Analysis has issued a Call for Abstracts for papers that will address the conference theme. The meeting, to be held May 12-13, 2001, in Seville, Spain, will focus on the need and potential of future-oriented technology analysis to address disruptive transformations in response to grand societal challenges. The deadline for abstracts is November 23. DETAILS: European Foresight, http://foresight.jrc.ec.europa.eu/fta_2011/intro.html

* SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT CONFERENCE IN FINLAND: A first call for papers has been announced for “Trends and Future of Sustainable Development,” to be held June 9-10, 2011, in Tampere, Finland. The 13th International Conference, organized by Finland Futures Research Centre and Finland Futures Academy at University of Turku, will deal with the many dimensions of a sustainable future. DETAILS: Finland Futures Research Centre http://www.futuresconference.fi/2011

* YES YOU CAN! A new book by innovation strategist Howard Rasheed offers lessons for leaders striving to anticipate the “next big thing.” Rasheed’s unique innovation mapping system, which he has described at World Future Society meetings and in the 2008 conference volume, “Seeing the Future Through New Eyes,” shows how to “connect the dots outside the box.” To learn more or order the book, visit The Innovation Strategist, http://www.theinnovationstrategist.net/publications.html

* LIFETIME ACHIEVEMENT AWARD: Arthur B. Shostak, emeritus professor of sociology at Drexel University, will be honored with the Faculty Lifetime Achievement Award at the College of Arts and Sciences awards gala on November 12. Shostak is one of the first members of the World Future Society and currently serves as THE FUTURIST magazine’s contributing editor on Utopian Thought. He is a pioneer in applying futures in education programs and recently edited the book “Creating the School You Want: Learning @ Tomorrow’s Edge.” DETAILS: http://www.futuresconference.fi/2011 or arthurshostak@gmail.com

WHAT’S HOT @WFS.ORG

* NEW BOARD MEMBERS: The World Future Society welcomes two new members to its board of directors: marketing and public relations specialist Marian Salzman and business consultant Jared Weiner. Salzman is president of Euro RSCG Worldwide PR and a pioneer in applying futuring tools, such as trend spotting, in the corporate milieu. Weiner is vice president of Weiner, Edrich, Brown, Inc., one of the world’s leading futurist consulting firms.

* ON THE BLOG ROLL: Don’t miss these thought-provoking posts by the Society’s growing roster of futurist bloggers. (Remember, World Future Society members may log in and comment freely on all blogs and articles):

JOIN OR RENEW your WFS membership now to join in the conversation! http://www.wfs.org/renew

October 2010, Vol. 11, No. 10

In This Issue:

  • Thwarting Wikipedia's Vandals
  • Revised Model for Ice-Cap Melting
  • Global Competitiveness Rankings
  • Campus Secularism
  • Click of the Month: Challenge.gov
  • News for the Futurist Community
  • What's Hot @WFS.ORG

THWARTING WIKIPEDIA'S VANDALS

Pete may very well love pancakes, but posting this fact on the Wikipedia entry for Abraham Lincoln would be considered vandalism by anyone seeking useful information from the site. Other cases of cyber-graffiti at Wikipedia have been more malicious, such as changing Microsoft's name to "Microshaft."

Crowd-editing keeps most Wikipedia entries honest, but the potential for vandalism is high; Lincoln and Microsoft both are popular targets for abuse. Now, a group of researchers at University of Iowa has developed an algorithm to alert officials when a new edit to an entry seems suspicious.

The statistical language model algorithm detects words or patterns that don't exist elsewhere in the entry and assigns a probability of the words appearing; unique terms such as "pancake" in the Lincoln entry are flagged as possible graffiti.

Other types of cyber-vandalism are less easy to detect with this approach, however, such as the photograph of a redwood tree that was inserted to replace Lincoln's portrait—a change that went undetected for two years.

SOURCE: University of Iowa: http://bit.ly/b89CfW

REVISED MODEL FOR ICE-CAP MELTING

The Greenland and West Antarctic ice caps are melting, but at only half the rate previously predicted, according to a team of U.S. and Dutch researchers.

Past estimates of the rate of ice-cap melting in Greenland and western Antarctica may not have properly accounted for movements in the Earth's crust that alter mass distribution and influence the gravitational field.

Using data from satellites and GPS measurements of land and sea-floor pressure, the researchers concluded that the ice caps are melting at approximately half the speed originally predicted and, as a consequence, that the average rise in sea levels will also be less. However, they cautioned that "there are too few data available to verify this independently."

SOURCE: Delft University of Technology: http://bit.ly/99IZ5u

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MOVING FROM VISION TO ACTION IN VANCOUVER!

The theme of the World Future Society's next annual meeting is WorldFuture 2011: Moving from Vision to Action. The conference will take place July 8-10, in Vancouver, British Columbia, at the beautiful Sheraton Vancouver Wall Centre.

Approximately 150 speakers will offer their latest insights and strategies; among the speakers already confirmed are:

  • Aubrey De Grey, cutting-edge expert on human longevity and co-author of Ending Aging.
  • Erica Orange, business futurist and vice president of Weiner, Edrich, Brown, Inc.
  • Ramez Naam, technologist and author of More Than Human.

The focus will be on developing specific action plans for meeting--and getting ahead of--the challenges we face now, but sessions will cover a wide range of topics, including technology, education, health, business, families, communities, work trends, social change, the environment and resources, globalization, education, governance, futures methodologies, and much more. In addition, keynote speakers and special events will focus on significant global issues and breakthrough ideas.

REGISTER BY OCTOBER 15 and save $250 on the on-site registration fee: Register here.

GLOBAL COMPETITIVENESS RANKINGS

Switzerland is once again ranked number one on the Global Economic Forum's latest international competitiveness rankings. Sweden, rising to number two, is also joined by Finland, the Netherlands, and Denmark in the top 10, making the Nordic countries one of the most economically competitive regions in the world.

The Global Competitiveness Report compares countries on the strength of such measures as infrastructure, institutions, labor market efficiency, education and training, technological readiness, and innovation, in addition to a poll of more than 13,500 business leaders in 139 economies. The goal is to give policy leaders a picture of their competitive strengths and weaknesses.

The United States fell two places from 2009 to 2010 (placing fourth behind Singapore). According to the report, the downward slip in U.S. competitiveness reflects concerns for the strength of U.S. public and private institutions, as well as its financial markets.

SOURCE: Global Competitiveness Report 2010-2011: World Economic Forum

CAMPUS SECULARISM

A U.S. organization supporting nonreligious student groups reports a growing number of such groups on campuses at the start of the fall 2010 term.

According to the Secular Student Alliance, a record 219 groups offered atheist and agnostic students an alternative to religious ministries on campus. There were 159 such groups in 2009 and 100 in 2008.

The trend toward increased secularism on campus reflects a broader trend in U.S. society, according to the Alliance. The 2008 American Religious Identification Survey showed that the secular demographic was the only group to have grown in every state since 1990.

SOURCE: Secular Students Alliance: secularstudents.org

CLICK OF THE MONTH: CHALLENGE.GOV

Challenge.gov

In an effort to make governance not only more transparent, but also more inviting and rewarding, this Web site managed by the U.S. General Services Administration promotes creative problem solving from the public by issuing challenges to earn cash prizes.

Recent challenges include the EPA's radon awareness poster contest, the Labor Department's call for "what do you do" career videos to help job seekers, and the Agriculture Department's search for recipes to improve nutrition in school lunch programs.

Federal government employees are encouraged to submit challenges on behalf of their agencies, and all citizens are encouraged to share the challenges through their social networks.

NEWS FOR THE FUTURIST COMMUNITY

* FUTURES BOOK INCLUDED IN E-CATALOG: Sociologist Wendell Bell's seminal work "Foundations of Futures Studies, Volume 2--Values, Objectivity, and the Good Society: Human Science for a New Era," published in 2004, is now available in e-book format. The book may be downloaded either in whole or by chapter, from Transaction Publishers, a leading social-science publisher. Transaction now offers more than 300 of its titles in e-book format. DETAILS: http://bit.ly/b4DzI2

* FUTURE FLOW: Forthcoming from The Futures Lab is FUTURE FLOW by Derek Woodgate, offering a prescription for building a future beyond today's turmoil. Woodgate recommends "positive cognition" including emotional conditioning and changing our assumptions. DETAILS: http://www.futures-lab.com/books/future-flow/

WHAT'S HOT @WFS.ORG

* NEW DIRECTOR OF DEVELOPMENT: WFS is pleased to welcome Jennifer Boykin to our staff in the newly created position of director of development. Jennifer will also manage conference planning and membership relations, and has plans to help boost services for local chapters. Her experience in marketing, sales, and strategic management in both the corporate and nonprofit sectors will be a great asset to the Society, enabling us to deliver an exciting array of new services for members.

* OUR MAN IN JAPAN: World Future Society communications director Patrick Tucker will be temporarily setting up shop in Japan beginning later this month. He will be telecommuting (and expanding the WFS international presence) through May, as his wife, Beth, pursues work for her PhD on Japanese history and culture. Patrick will also continue his work as senior editor of THE FUTURIST and can be reached at ptucker@wfs.org

* WFS.ORG: Have you visited the new World Future Society Web site? The beta site recently went live, and we welcome your comments, suggestions, and critiques. While there is a wealth of ideas and information there for nonmembers (such as the Top 10 Forecasts from Outlook 2011, a preview from the report to be published in November-December, http://bit.ly/c4x8Fw), the new member benefit of free access to the vast FUTURIST archive is a great reason to join the Society now. And remember, Professional Members also have access to the articles published in WORLD FUTURE REVIEW. DETAILS: Benefits

September 2010, Vol. 11 No. 9

In This Issue:

  • More Threats to Gulf of Mexico
  • Robotic Trash Handling
  • In Memoriam: Susan Echard
  • Pet Health Industry Thrives
  • Click of the Month: World Future Society 2.0
  • News for the Futurist Community
  • What's Hot @WFS.ORG

MORE THREATS TO GULF OF MEXICO

Leaking oil isn't the only threat to the Gulf of Mexico and surrounding coastal communities. Rising sea levels also pose dangers to wetlands and habitats of commercially important fish and wildlife, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).

A new research project led by Scott Hagen of the University of Central Florida will develop computer models to predict sea level rises and the impacts of storms along the Gulf Coast. The study area will range from Mississippi to the Florida panhandle, a stretch chosen for its relatively pristine ecosystems and existing monitoring infrastructure, making it an ideal "sentinel site" for climate change impacts.

The study will produce models that can help ecosystem and natural resource managers in their planning for potential sea level rises. The model may also help oil spill responders understand the long-term effects of the oil on the Gulf's ecosystems.

SOURCE: NOAA http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2010/20100805_sealevel.html

ROBOTIC TRASH HANDLING

Squeezing an enormous, noisy trash-collection truck through old, narrow streets twice a week, whether the residents need a pickup or not, doesn't work well in many old cities and towns of Europe.

Solution? On-demand service from a small robotic bin.

Dubbed DustCart by its developers, the bin-on-wheels features cameras and other sensors to see where it's going, communicating information to a central control center that guides it to clients' homes upon demand.

The robot's development was funded by the European Union's Sixth Framework Program for research and began testing in May, with two DustCarts serving 100 households in the town of Peccioli, Italy.

Project coordinator Paolo Dario believes that the costs of robotic trash collection would be comparable to current door-to-door waste and recycling services but more convenient for users, especially for recycling.

SOURCES: ICT Results http://bit.ly/dkBb9k;
http://www.DustBot.org

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MOVING FROM VISION TO ACTION IN VANCOUVER!

The theme of the World Future Society's next annual meeting is WorldFuture 2011: Moving from Vision to Action. The conference will take place July 8-10, in Vancouver, British Columbia, at the beautiful Sheraton Vancouver Wall Centre.

Approximately 150 speakers will offer their latest insights and strategies; among the speakers already confirmed are:

  • Aubrey De Grey, cutting-edge expert on human longevity and co-author of Ending Aging.
  • Erica Orange, business futurist and vice president of Weiner, Edrich, Brown, Inc.
  • Ramez Naam, technologist and author of More Than Human.

The focus will be on developing specific action plans for meeting--and getting ahead of--the challenges we face now, but sessions will cover a wide range of topics in technology, education, health, business issues, families, communities, work trends, social change, the environment and resources, globalization, education, governance, futures methodologies, and much more. In addition, keynote speakers and special events will focus on significant global issues and breakthrough ideas.

REGISTER BY AUGUST 31 and save $300 on the on-site registration fee: http://www.wfs.org/content/register-worldfuture-2011

IN MEMORIAM: SUSAN ECHARD, WFS VICE PRESIDENT

It is with deep sadness that we report the death on July 29 of Susan Echard, longtime World Future Society membership and conference director. She is survived by her husband, Paul; sister, Kathleen Zellmer; brother, Jeffrie Zellmer; and two stepchildren and two step grandchildren.

Joining the Society in 1977 as a temporary assistant to then–Secretary/Treasurer Peter Zuckerman, Sue gradually took over full-time management of both the membership and conference planning departments. In 2004, she was named Vice President for Membership and Conference Operations.

Despite illness, Sue continued to support the Society's programs and services throughout the first half of 2010. Her dedication was an inspiration to her colleagues and to members and friends of the Society who came to know her.

The conference scholarship program, which enables full-time students under age 30 to participate in the Society's annual meetings, has now been renamed the Susan Echard Scholarship Program, in honor of her outstanding contribution to WFS and the global community.

PET HEALTH INDUSTRY THRIVES

No matter how tough the economy is on household budgets, there always seems to be enough to keep our beloved animal companions in good health. This makes pet health a relatively recession-proof industry, suggest spending projections released by market-research firm Freedonia.

Retail sales of pet products in the United States have remained steady through the recent recession, and an average annual growth rate of 5.2% is projected through 2014.

Faster growth is predicted for areas that represent a transfer from human medicine to pets: Insurance products, dietary supplements, treatments for age-related conditions and obesity, and even cosmetic surgery will all see rapid gains in the next five years, according to the report.

SOURCE: Pet Health: Products & Services (August 2010, 285 pages, $4,800), published by The Freedonia Group http://www.freedoniagroup.com

CLICK OF THE MONTH: WORLD FUTURE SOCIETY 2.0 http://www.wfs.org

Why is the World Future Society's own Web site the "Click of the Month"? Because, as many of you may already know, our beta site recently went live!

While some of your bookmarks will need to be changed (note the new URL for FUTURIST UPDATE at the top of this newsletter, for example), the site offers a wide range of new, exclusive benefits for WFS members:

  • Read and comment on FUTURIST magazine or FUTURIST UPDATE articles (Professional Members also may read WORLD FUTURE REVIEW online).
  • Download fully illustrated PDF versions of FUTURIST articles.
  • Search THE FUTURIST's archives and download articles for free in issues from 1992 to the present.
  • Read and comment on blogs from innovative thinkers such as Stephen Aguilar-Millan, J. Storrs Hall, Hazel Henderson, Jamais Cascio, Erica Orange, David H. Rosen, and Eric Garland.

The site still has many features that are open to nonmembers, such as selected articles, blogs, and links to Society information. Browse more than 250 forecasts from THE FUTURIST magazine and interviews with Ian Bremmer, Tim O'Reilly, Ray Kurzweil, and others.

But we hope more guests will join us! The World Future Society is a community of diverse, forward-looking people, so the site is designed to help members get to know and learn from each other.

NEWS FOR THE FUTURIST COMMUNITY

* NEW ZEALAND FUTURISTS CONNECT: Two new international partnerships were formed by New Zealand's Sustainable Future Institute during the recent World Future Society conference. Founder and CEO Wendy McGuinness led the way for the Institute to become the New Zealand Node of the Millennium Project, as well as the World Future Society's New Zealand chapter coordinator. Wendy's activities at the Boston conference were featured in the online business journal Scoop.co.nz.

DETAILS: Sustainable Future Institute http://www.sustainablefuture.info/
"Local Institute Links With Futurist Organisations," Scoop (July 28, 2010) http://bit.ly/cO3Ohq

* CALL FOR PAPERS, ALTERNATIVE FUTURES FOR ARMY CAPABILITIES: The Army Capabilities Integration Center's Future Warfare Division has announced a call for papers for its symposium, "A Vision of Alternative Futures," to be held November 3-4, 2010, in McLean, Virginia. The goal is to identify how globalization, environmental trends, changes in values, and other forces may impact future conflicts and Army readiness. Deadline to submit an abstract or paper is September 1. For more information on the symposium or to submit a paper or abstract, e-mail Robert.wood2@us.army.mil

* NEW WEB SITE FOR IAF: The Institute for Alternative Futures has launched its new Web site, offering clients and visitors access to a wide range of IAF projects and publications on health, sustainability, education, governance, and more. VISIT IAF at http://www.altfutures.org

WHAT'S HOT @WFS.ORG

* EDITORS' QUERY: EMERGING JOB TITLES. Aquaculturist. Cyberneticist. Media specialist. Geriatric social worker. These are just a few of the job titles that futurists in the early 1980s foresaw for the year 2000. Now it's time to look ahead to the next 20 years. What trends are shaping the occupations in your industry or field? What will be the new jobs (and industries) in the year 2030? Send your ideas (about 150 to 300 words), along with a brief "about the author" note about yourself, to FUTURIST managing editor Cindy Wagner, cwagner@wfs.org

* WORLDFUTURE 2010: CONFERENCE COVERAGE, MATERIALS, AND WRAP-UPS

Here are a few highlights of media coverage for the World Future Society's annual conference in Boston:

  • "Envision Scenarios That Might Affect Your Future" by Andrea Kay, USA TODAY
    "I just spent three days listening to people from across the planet talk about how we might live, work and think in 2025 and beyond.... Mind you, no one can predict the future with certainty. One after the other, these researchers, inventors, professors, consultants and futurists at the World Future Conference who covered everything from the most highly valued future professions to simulating the human brain always added this caveat: Of course, no one knows for sure." http://bit.ly/bED4RC
  • "Technologist: Full Emersion in the Cyberworld Is Coming - PCWorld Business Center" by Fred O'Connor, IDG News (PC WORLD / COMPUTER WORLD / MAC WORLD magazines)
    "Although many people already are engrossed in cyberspace, judging by the amount of communicating, socializing and commerce conducted online, we're at the advent of what will be a near total immersion in technology and the Internet, according to a technologist who spoke Saturday at the World Future Society conference in Boston." http://bit.ly/cpNIAS
  • "Yale Bioethicist Warns of Singularity's Perils at Futurist Gathering" by Chris Jablonski, ZDNet
    "Last night, the World Future Society's yearly confab got underway in Boston with a keynote from Wendell Wallach, a lecturer and scholar at Yale University. Judging by the audience of several hundred, the topic of artificial intelligence, the singularity, and their societal implications are of interest across all demographics." http://zd.net/dwZC57
  • "Sleep: Lost in Space" by John Cline, Psychology Today
    "I recently returned from the World Future Society meeting in Boston. This is a fascinating convention with workshops and presentations ranging from how to achieve a sustainable environment, to the development of cyberspace into full emersion virtual reality, to speculation about the emergence of machine intelligence. Melchor Antunano presented one of the most interesting topics. He is with the FAA Civil Aerospace Medical Institute and the UN International Academy of Astronautics. He discussed medical issues with regard to commercial space flight, including space tourism." http://bit.ly/a20a5z
  • "Cloud Computing Will Surpass the Internet in Importance" by Fred O'Connor, PC WORLD
    "Cloud computing will top the Internet in importance as development of the Web continues, according to a university professor who spoke Friday at the World Future Society conference in Boston." http://bit.ly/bEdPe2 Also see http://bit.ly/dlQHro

Look for more coverage of WorldFuture 2010 in the November-December issue of THE FUTURIST magazine, to be mailed to members in early October. Join or renew your membership in the World Future Society to ensure that you receive your copy! BENEFITS: http://www.wfs.org/node/42

AUDIO AND SPEAKER PRESENTATIONS:

http://www.intelliquestmedia.com/store/search.php?a=E&c=201026

PHOTOS from the conference: http://twitpic.com/photos/WorldFutureSoc

ORDER a copy of the WorldFuture 2010 conference volume, STRATEGIES AND TECHNOLOGIES FOR A SUSTAINABLE FUTURE ($29.95, or $24.95 for Society members): http://www.wfs.org/wfsbooks

REGISTER before August 31 to save $300 for WorldFuture 2011: Moving from Vision to Action, to be held in Vancouver, BC, Canada, July 8-10: http://www.wfs.org/content/worldfuture-2011

August 2010, Vol 11, No. 8

In This Issue:
* Entrepreneurship Stalls
* Cloaking with Glass and Ceramics
* Highest Atmospheric Carbon in 800,000 Years
* Songbirds May Carry Avian Flu
* Click of the Month: GoodGuide
* What’s Hot @WFS.ORG: Back from the Future

ENTREPRENEURSHIP STALLS

Business start-up activity plummeted in the first half of 2010 in the United States, reports the global outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas. Just 3.7% of job seekers started their own business, compared with an average of 9.6% in the last two quarters of 2009. (The highest start-up rate of job seekers was 21.5%, recorded in the first half of 1989.)

“Would-be entrepreneurs were either scooped up by employers or scared off by fragile economic conditions, a tight lending market, and uncertainty over the sustainability of the recovery,” according to the firm.

The slowdown in entrepreneurship may indicate that economic recovery is particularly weak and the U.S. economy may slip back into recession. “Start-up activity is at its lowest just as a recession hits,” says CEO John A. Challenger. “In the months immediately following the end of the recession, when unemployment is at its highest and hiring is virtually nonexistent, we see a spike in job seekers starting a business.”

SOURCE: Challenger, Gray & Christmas Inc. Challenger, Gray, and Christmas

CLOAKING WITH GLASS AND CERAMICS

Using a type of glass that does not conduct electricity, researchers at Michigan Tech and Penn State report discovering a way to capture and route rays of visible light around objects, rendering the objects invisible.

Previous attempts to build an “invisibility cloak” have used metals and wires. In the research by Michigan Tech engineer Elena Semouchkina and colleagues, tiny glass metamaterials were arranged in a cylinder shape that produced the magnetic resonance required to bend light waves around an object. These resonators are artificial materials with properties that do not exist in nature, born of the marriage between materials science and electrical engineering.

The researchers are experimenting with other materials, such as ceramic resonators, and with other frequencies, such as microwave. The goal is to find applications that work at visible light frequencies, says Semouchkina.

SOURCE: Michigan Technological University
MIT News

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ANNOUNCING 2011 ANNUAL MEETING!

The eyes of the future will turn to Canada in 2011, as the World Future Society assembles an outstanding collection of forward thinkers for its annual meeting, WorldFuture 2011, July 8-10, in Vancouver, British Columbia.

Vancouver is an outstanding conference destination, not only for its natural beauty, but also as a setting for innovative thinking. You won’t want to miss side trips to Science World, Pacific Space Center, the Vancouver Art Gallery, and Museum of Anthropology, to mention just a few highlights.

World Future Society conferences are known as open marketplaces of ideas, where people from all cultures, disciplines, professions, age groups, and worldviews mix to learn from and stimulate each other with new opportunities--and new tools for meeting the challenges of building our common future.

The program will include a wealth of concurrent sessions covering technology, education, health, business issues, families, communities, work trends, social change, the environment and resources, globalization, education, governance, futures methodologies, and much more. In addition, keynote speakers and special events will focus on significant global issues and breakthrough ideas.

REGISTER BY AUGUST 31 and save $300 on the on-site registration fee: www.wfs.org/content/worldfuture-2011

HIGHEST ATMOSPHERIC CARBON IN 800,000 YEARS

The choice to curb--or not to curb--carbon emissions in the near term will affect populations across the globe for centuries to come, says a new report from the National Research Council. The amount of carbon in the atmosphere is currently higher than at any point in the last 800,000 years.

CO2 doesn't displace easily. The amount could triple by the end of the century depending on the sorts of emissions reductions choices individuals and policy makers enact today. Even if emissions stabilize, CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere would continue to increase as the amount in the air already exceeds what the earth can absorb.

The report details how small changes in temperature would change rainfall patterns and water availability: Rain in the North American southwest and the Mediterranean would decrease by as much as 10%, and crop yields could decrease by 15% for every one degree (Celsius) of warming according to the report.

SOURCE: National Research Council

National Academies

Read the report, “Climate Stabilization Targets: Emissions, Concentrations, and Impacts Over Decades to Millennia,” online.

SONGBIRDS MAY CARRY AVIAN FLU

The migratory patterns of birds can give scientists data on future avian flu outbreaks. Analyzing more than 225 species of songbirds and perching birds, researchers found that 22 varieties are carriers of low-pathogenicity avian influenza, meaning they carry a strain of the bug that isn't dangerous enough to kill the bird but could mutate into something more lethal. The research supported by the National Science Foundation was recently published in the journal BMC Infectious Diseases.

Avian influenza or bird flu is most commonly associated with poultry and water fowl like chicken and ducks, but perching and songbirds--also called passerines--typically share the same habitats and may be more effective transmitters of the disease.

By mapping such factors as a location’s minimum temperature, date of spring thaw, and particularly the amount of land that's been converted into cropland, researchers hope to predict increases of avian flu cases. "Agricultural activity reduces the amount of natural habitat available to avian migrants," says Trevon Fuller, lead author of the paper and a biologist at the Center for Tropical Research at UCLA. When birds have less habitat, they crowd together more, which helps communicable diseases spread faster.

SOURCE: National Science Foundation,
NSF

CLICK OF THE MONTH: GOODGUIDE

Goodguide.com

Is that shampoo really good for the environment? Are these organic cereals really good for me? What does it really mean when a product says it’s “natural” or “organic” or “environmentally friendly”? Consumers have more choices than ever for conscientious consumption, but with few standards there may be much confusion about the true impacts of our daily purchases.

GoodGuide offers ratings and “best and worst product reviews” of more than 65,000 products based on such factors as whether the item is tested on animals, is fragrance-free, reduces water consumption, or contributes to global warming.

“About 33% of all new food products launched in 2008 claimed to be ‘natural,’ according to Dara O’Rourke, University of California, Berkeley, environmental policy professor and founder of the GoodGuide Web site,” writes business futurist Erica Orange of Weiner, Edrich, Brown, Inc., in the September-October 2010 issue of THE FUTURIST. GoodGuide’s goal is to help consumers interpret such vague terms.

To make it even easier for shoppers to compare products on the shelves, GoodGuide also now offers an iPhone application.

WHAT’S HOT @WFS.ORG: BACK FROM THE FUTURE

We’re “back from the future” once again, bidding a fond farewell to Boston, host of the World Future Society’s conference, “WorldFuture 2010: Sustainable Futures, Strategies, and Technologies.” As with any great adventure, we came home with more than we brought with us: more ideas, more contacts, and more energy for building the future.

There were more highlights than we could possibly summarize here, but certainly the opening and closing addresses by Yale University bioethicist Wendell Wallach and journalist Michael Rogers helped frame the dialogues and debates that took place during the conference. Inventor Ray Kurzweil and NASA scientist Dennis Bushnell both spoke to packed audiences, and the luncheon speakers--oceanographer Susan Avery and workplace consultant Karen Moloney--provided overviews of the challenges we face in our physical and organizational landscapes.

Another highlight was the honoring of Theodore J. Gordon during the closing session as recipient of the first Edward Cornish Award: Futurist of the Year. Gordon was nominated for his work in 2009 with the Millennium Project’s Futures Research Methodology Version 3.0 and State of the Future, yet his outstanding career truly merits acclamation as a futures pioneer.

On a personal note, I want to thank all the participants in the first-ever Futurist Writers Workshop, a one-day preconference course led by FUTURIST magazine senior editor Patrick Tucker and myself. Our goal was to help futurists deploy their unique environmental-scanning skills to craft interesting and useful stories for their target audience, be it public policy makers or the blogosphere. We came away from the workshop with a graduating class of outstanding futurist writers, whose work we hope you’ll see a great deal of in the future!

The story of the 2010 conference would not be complete without a mention of the international drama immediately preceding it! Just a week before the opening, we learned a professional member using the name Donald Heathfield--who had been a speaker at previous conferences--was arrested on charges of espionage. Andrei Bezrukov confessed to his role in gathering intelligence while living in the United States and was deported with nine other agents in a “spy swap” with Russia. READ WFS founder Edward Cornish’s account of the history of undercover interest in Society activities, “Welcome Russian Spies.”

Read it here.

Though an enormous success, the conference experience also brought some unexpected sorrow: One of our members--Richard T. Anderson, former president of Waukesha County (Wisconsin) Technical College--suffered a stroke during the welcoming reception. We learned just as the conference closed that Richard passed away. We mourn his loss, yet it is inspiring to know that Richard spent these precious moments with others who shared his belief that a better future is truly a lifetime pursuit. DETAILS: Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel

AUDIO AND SPEAKER PRESENTATIONS:
Intelliquest

PHOTOS from the conference: Twitpic

ORDER a copy of the WorldFuture 2010 conference volume, STRATEGIES AND TECHNOLOGIES FOR A SUSTAINABLE FUTURE ($29.95, or $24.95 for Society members): www.wfs.org/wfsbooks.htm

Look for more coverage of WorldFuture 2010 in the November-December issue of THE FUTURIST magazine. Join or renew your membership in the World Future Society to ensure that you receive your copy! BENEFITS: http://www.wfs.org/member.htm

REGISTER before August 31 to save $300 for WorldFuture 2011, to be held in Vancouver, BC, Canada, July 8-10: www.wfs.org/content/register-worldfuture-2011

July 2010, Vol. 11, No. 7

In This Issue:
Supercenentarians: Why 110 Is the New 100
Synthetic Antibodies Fight Bee Stings
Knowledge Sharing among U.S. Diplomats
Economics and Politics of Well-Being
Click of the Month: Nourishing the Planet
News for the Futurist Community

SUPERCENTENARIANS: WHY 110 IS THE NEW 100

A global team of demographers has identified at least 600 individuals who have reached the age of 110 and earned the title of “supercentenarians.” Of these 600, 20 were more than 115 years old.

More than half (341) of the supercentenarians discovered are in the United States, where women in the cohort outnumbered men by nearly 10 to 1. (These numbers may have been a factor of better record keeping in the United States compared with other countries, the researchers note.)

The work, coordinated by the Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research in Germany, aims to create a database that would provide a reliable, international record of scientifically verified data on human longevity.

The effort may yield important clues about why and how some individuals are able to live such a long time, some even surviving major surgery in their 110s. For instance, as the U.S. example illustrates, being born female has its advantages for longevity, whereas socioeconomic differences and the longevity of one’s ancestors seem to have little impact on the likelihood of supercentenarianism.

The researchers observed that many of the supercentenarians had been able to avoid dementia. This suggests that efforts to prevent, diagnose, and treat Alzheimer’s disease and other forms of dementia may also contribute to longevity.

SOURCES: Max Planck Institute

International Database on Longevity

SYNTHETIC ANTIBODIES FIGHT BEE STINGS

Synthetically produced antibodies injected into mice have successfully blocked bee venom, report researchers at the University of California, Irvine.

The “plastic antibodies” are tiny particles created through molecular imprinting and designed to match and encase the melittin peptide in bee venom that causes cells to rupture, leading to organ failure and death.

“Never before have synthetic antibodies been shown to effectively function in the bloodstream of living animals,” says UCI chemistry professor Kenneth Shea. “This technique could be utilized to make plastic nanoparticles designed to fight more lethal toxins and pathogens.”

SOURCE: University of California, Irvine

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OXFORD SCENARIOS PROGRAMME

http://www.sbs.ox.ac.uk/execed/strategy/scenarios

6 - 10 September 2010, £4,750 (ex VAT) all-inclusive

Saïd Business School, University of Oxford.

This programme helps you identify the crucial drivers of change shaping the wider context. With the future in mind, you will learn how to develop strategies, policies or programmes to prepare your organisation for the turbulent and uncertain business climate of tomorrow.

For details contact mailto:caroline.williams@sbs.ox.ac.uk

To join this programme we welcome your Online Application: https://app.hobsons.co.uk/?id=ox-sbsee

KNOWLEDGE SHARING AMONG U.S. DIPLOMATS

A Rice University study of the U.S. State Department’s Wikipedia style knowledge-sharing platform suggests that such tools could improve information management in other areas of government.

Dubbed Diplopedia, the open-source platform for the U.S. diplomatic corps allows a registered user to post articles and edit other pages, will all contributions directly traced to that user.

In three years, the site has grown to more than 11,000 articles, creating a knowledge base of expertise for working diplomats.

SOURCE: U.S. Department of State

A draft of the Diplopedia study (PDF document), prepared by the State Department’s Office of eDiplomacy and Rice University, is available here.

ECONOMICS AND POLITICS OF WELL-BEING

A new survey will examine the need to look “Beyond GDP” in determining national well-being. The survey, conducted by GlobeScan, will be funded by Ethical Markets Media (USA and Brazil), according to president Hazel Henderson, and will be similar to one that group produced in 2007 for the European Parliament (see http://www.beyond-gdp.eu ).

GDP--gross domestic product--is the key measure of progress used by traditional economists (and institutions such as the World Bank and International Monetary Fund), but critics argue that this measure does not take into account the social and environmental costs of certain economic activity that may degrade overall quality of life. Henderson has long “urged the retraining of economists beyond their narrow money-focused view of wealth.”

Despite the development of alternative measures, such as the Calvert-Henderson Quality of Life Indicators, Henderson charges that economists simple don’t want to change.

“They fear losing their data series, their intellectual superiority, [and] their dominance of national policy making and international bodies,” Henderson wrote in an e-mail to FUTURIST UPDATE. “The economics profession (it was never a science) would be in for a necessary downsizing, just as their clients in bloated financial firms must be downsized as well.”

Henderson also expresses concern about popular acceptance of “happiness” measures as an alternative to GDP, because these, too, can become politicized. Among the pitfalls of “Gross National Happiness” types of indicators is the inherent subjectivity of happiness.

“Just one or two examples suffice,” says Henderson. “A population surveyed may report high levels of happiness for many reasons. Some cultures seem to produce happier people than other cultures. [And] a community can report high levels of happiness while in danger from undiscovered contaminants in their water supply or radiation levels in their homes due to spent wastes mixed with cement in their construction.”

SOURCE: Hazel Henderson, Ethical Markets Media, LLC

http://www.ethicalmarkets.com

A WORLD OF IDEAS AT WORLDFUTURE 2010!

SEE YOU IN BOSTON FOR WORLDFUTURE 2010, JULY 7-11

WorldFuture 2010: Sustainable Futures, Strategies, and Technologies will bring together a thousand futurists from around the world to the Westin Boston Waterfront Hotel in Boston, July 8-10. Come early (July 7-8) for preconference courses, the MIT Media Lab tour, and the Education Summit, and stay late (July 11) for the Professional Members’ Forum.

The conference program boasts an outstanding lineup of speakers, such as business futurists Edie Weiner and Arnold Brown, inventors Ray Kurzweil and Stephen Thaler, and representatives from global organizations such as UNESCO, the Japan Institute of Negotiation, and the European Futures Observatory.

HOTEL INFORMATION: The Westin Boston Waterfront Hotel, 425 Summer Street, Boston, Massachusetts 02210, USA. Telephone 617-532-4600, Web site http://bit.ly/aHnaVe

CLICK OF THE MONTH: NOURISHING THE PLANET

http://blogs.worldwatch.org/nourishingtheplanet/

A blog from the Worldwatch Institute’s Sustainable Agriculture Program offers news, activities, and ideas for sustainable development around the world.

Recent posts include “Innovation of the Week: Locally Produced Crops for Locally Consumed Products,” “‘Endangered Species’ Means More Than Animals,” and “Tapping Local Ingenuity to Raise Fish and Livestock.”

According to the site, the “Sustainable Agriculture Program highlights the benefits to farmers, consumers, and ecosystems that can flow from food systems that are flexible enough to deal with shifting weather patterns, productive enough to meet the needs of expanding populations, and accessible enough to support rural communities.”

BONUS CLICK: Worldwatch Institute

NEWS FOR THE FUTURIST COMMUNITY

* DEVELOPMENT COMMITTEE OPPORTUNITY: The World Future Society’s development committee is seeking volunteers interested in exploring new ways to make foresight useful to communities such as youth. The committee specifically seeks committed individuals with experience in grant writing, fundraising, youth program development, and sponsor recruitment. Meetings are held in the Washington, D.C., area but may be attended by teleconference or Internet if needed. CONTACT: WFS President Tim Mack mailto:tmack@wfs.org or 301-656-8274.

* FUTURE DIRECTIONS IN SPACE PROPULSION: The Space, Propulsion, and Energy Sciences International Forum, to be held March 15-17, 2011, at the University of Maryland, has issued a call for papers on propulsion science, astrosociology, high-frequency gravitational waves, and future directions in space science and technology. Initial abstracts are due August 15, 2010. DETAILS: Institute for Advanced Studies in the Space, Propulsion and Energy Sciences http://www.ias-spes.org/SPESIF.html

* INVESTING IN THE PUBLIC GOOD: The Tomorrow Project has published a new report, “Investing for Public Good,” to illustrate how governments can save money via Social Impact Bonds (SIBs) and tackle social problems at their roots. “Without doubt SIBs offer a real opportunity to support the most disadvantaged, the most vulnerable, and those who are so often forgotten about or left behind by more traditionally structured interventions,” says Gavin Poole, managing director of the Centre for Social Justice. “SIBs offer these people a real chance to transform their lives and provide an opportunity that if not present would end in further neglect.” DETAILS: Richard Worsley, the Tomorrow Project http://www.tomorrowproject.net

FUTURIST UPDATE: News & Previews from the World Future Society is an e-mail newsletter published monthly as a supplement to THE FUTURIST magazine. Copyright © 2010, World Future Society, 7910 Woodmont Avenue, Suite 450, Bethesda, MD 20814, USA. Telephone 1-301-656-8274; e-mail mailto:info@wfs.org Web site http://www.wfs.org

Editor: Cindy Wagner, mailto:cwagner@wfs.org
Senior Editor: Patrick Tucker, mailto:ptucker@wfs.org
Network Administrator: Jeff Cornish, mailto:jcornish@wfs.org

June 2010, Vol. 11, No. 6

In This Issue:
The Edward Cornish Award for Futurist of the Year
FUTURIST Magazine Published in Turkish
Visions of Europe
Dator, Henderson, Coates Honored
2010 High-School Essay Contest Winner
Clicks of the Month: Futurist Reading List
Citizen-Scientists and the Future

THE EDWARD CORNISH AWARD FOR FUTURIST OF THE YEAR

Theodore J. Gordon, co-founder and senior research fellow of the Millennium Project, will be honored as the first recipient of The Edward Cornish Award for Futurist of the Year. The presentation will take place during the closing plenary session on July 10 at the World Future Society’s meeting, WorldFuture 2010: Sustainable Futures, Strategies, and Technologies, to be held July 8-10 at the Westin Boston Waterfront Hotel.

“In the last year, Ted Gordon has influenced greatly futures studies in many countries of the world, especially in methodologies and normative scenarios,” said WFS Global Advisory Council member Eleonora Barbieri Masini, professor emeritus of Gregorian University, Rome. “Very important [is] his interest in ethical issues at the global level and as related to futures issues. In the last months he has lectured in Italy at different universities influencing thus students, lecturers and, very interesting for Italy, decision making. In Italy this has been specially important, as futures studies have not been too well accepted at the decision-making level.”

During 2009, the Millennium Project released Futures Research Methodology Version 3.0, a substantially updated edition of a comprehensive CD-ROM offering invaluable tools for foresight, planning, and decision making, including material that Gordon produced with colleagues at The Futures Group International.

Along with Millennium Project co-founder Jerome C. Glenn, with whom he has also prepared the series of annual reports on the State of the Future, Gordon represents “the best of futures research and execution on a global basis, which improves the development of foresight around the world,” said World Future Society board member Jack Gottsman.

Named for World Future Society founding president Edward Cornish, editor of its magazine THE FUTURIST and author of FUTURING: The Exploration of the Future, the Award is presented to the individual or group on the basis of work completed within the past 12 months, demonstrating an effective application of foresight (including classroom work) or the public discussion of the future. Nominations were open to any individual or organization involved in futures work anywhere in the world.

“This award is exciting because it honors the vision of Society founder Ed Cornish, the achievements of foresight pioneer Ted Gordon, and the inspiration that both offer to futurists following their outstanding example,” said FUTURIST managing editor Cynthia Wagner. “It brings together the past, present, and future of our field.”

FUTURIST MAGAZINE PUBLISHED IN TURKISH

The Turkish Futurists Society and the Aktif Group, a privately owned postal company, have teamed to produce the first Turkish language edition of the World Future Society’s flagship magazine, THE FUTURIST.

“Future anxiety is a very common feeling in people,” said Ufuk Tarhan, Turkish Futurists Society president and founder of M-GEN Future Planning Center, during a press conference in Istanbul on May 18. “However, it is in our hands to change it. THE FUTURIST may shape our future by informing us about future trends, forecasts, and ideas about the future.”

The venture produced 10,000 copies of the May-June 2010 issue, according to Aktif Group Board Chairman Yusuf Köse. “This initiative is like a social responsibility project for us,” he said.

DETAILS: See also “Futurist Magazine Publishes in Turkey for First Time,” Hürriyet Daily News (May 19),

OXFORD SCENARIOS PROGRAMME

6 - 10 September 2010, £4,750 (ex VAT) all-inclusive

Saïd Business School, University of Oxford.

This programme helps you identify the crucial drivers of change shaping the wider context. With the future in mind, you will learn how to develop strategies, policies or programmes to prepare your organisation for tomorrow's turbulent and uncertain business climate.

For details contact mailto:caroline.williams@sbs.ox.ac.uk

VISIONS OF EUROPE

The Foundation For Future Studies in Germany, a new Institutional Member of the World Future Society, has released the English-language version of two of its 2008 reports, “Future Expectations of Europe” and “A Vision for Europe from Economic Community to Community of Values.”

The group, which conducts original scientific and statistical research on long-term trends in attitudes and behavior, is now also producing English-language versions of its Current Research newsletter.

SOURCE: Dr. Ulrich Reinhardt, BAT-Stiftung Für Zukunftsfragen (Foundation for Future Studies)

The Foresight Network has bestowed its newly created Futurist of the Year Laurel on Jim Dator (director, Hawaii Research Center for Futures Studies), Hazel Henderson (founder and president, Ethical Markets Media), and Joseph Coates (consulting futurist and contributing columnist for Technological Forecasting & Social Change).

The Network’s 2,400 members were asked to name the futures thinkers who had the most-important influence on them.

“These three have contributed so much to the field of futures thinking and it’s an honor for me to present them with this recognition,” said Myles Hopkins, chairman of the Foresight Network.

SOURCE: Shaping Tomorrow, or contact Bengt-Arne Vedin, mailto:bengt-arne.vedin@telia.com

2010 HIGH-SCHOOL ESSAY CONTEST WINNER

An essay describing the impacts of technology on social values and happiness has earned first place in the World Future Society’s second annual high-school essay contest.

“A Hurting Society” was written by Trevor Hu, a senior at Hawaii Baptist Academy in Honolulu. As winner, Hu will receive $300, a three-year membership in the Society, and complimentary registration at WorldFuture 2010 in Boston.

Second place was awarded to Jeremy Sia of the Raffles Institution in Singapore for “China’s Household Registration System,” an analysis of the impacts of the Hokou system on rural and urban families. Third place was awarded to Nicole Watts of Mililani, Hawaii, for “Socially Active,” an essay describing the impacts of new communications and networking technologies.

The winning essays will also be published in a forthcoming issue of the World Future Society’s journal for professional members, WORLD FUTURE REVIEW

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LEARNING OPPORTUNITIES AND EDUCATION SUMMIT AT WORLDFUTURE 2010!

WorldFuture 2010 will bring together a thousand futurists from around the world to the Westin Boston Waterfront Hotel in Boston, July 8-10. Come early (July 7-8) for preconference courses, the MIT Media Lab tour, and the Education Summit, and stay late (July 11) for the Professional Members’ Forum.

Futurists looking to enhance their own skills will also have a variety of learning opportunities before the conference gets under way. Courses range from introductory to advanced, such as how to build and use scenarios and using patterns of inventions to predict the future.

Robots in the classroom, "power teaching," and innovative problem-solving strategies will all be explored at the annual Education Summit immediately preceding the opening of WorldFuture 2010. The Summit will address the challenges and opportunities of demographic and technological transformation to improve learning in the future.

The conference program itself boasts an outstanding lineup of speakers, such as business futurists Edie Weiner and Arnold Brown, inventors Ray Kurzweil and Stephen Thaler, and representatives from global organizations such as UNESCO, the Japan Institute of Negotiation, and the European Futures Observatory.

CLICK OF THE MONTH: FUTURIST READING LIST (AMAZON.COM)

Get ready for this summer’s most exciting learning experience! Here are recent books by some of the confirmed speakers at WorldFuture 2010:

Janna Quitney Anderson and Lee Rainie:

• Up for Grabs: The Future of the Internet, Volume 1 (with) Susannah Fox (Cambria Press, 2008)

• Hopes and Fears: The Future of the Internet, Volume 2 (Cambria Press, 2008)

• Ubiquity, Mobility, Security: The Future of the Internet, Volume 3
(Cambria Press, 2009)

Harvey Cox:
• The Future of Faith

Anthony Flint:
• Wrestling with Moses: How Jane Jacobs Took On New York's Master Builder and

Transformed the American City (Random House, 2009)
Theodore J. Gordon and Jerome C. Glenn:
• Futures Research Methodology Version 3.0 [CD-ROM] (The Millennium Project, 2009)

Ray Kurzweil:
• The Singularity Is Near: When Humans Transcend Biology (Penguin, 2006)

Ramez Naam:
• More Than Human: Embracing the Promise of Biological Enhancement (Broadway, 2005)

Robert R. Prechter Jr.:
• Conquer the Crash: You Can Survive and Prosper in a Deflationary Depression

Arthur Shostak (editor), with contributions from Tsvi Bisk, Joseph Coates, William Crossman, William E. Halal, Timothy C. Mack, Marsha Rhea, Daniel I. Shostak, David Pearce Snyder, Marianne Solomon, Stephen Steele, and others:

• Creating the School You Want: Learning @ Tomorrow's Edge
Edie Weiner and Arnold Brown:

• FutureThink: How to Think Clearly in a Time of Change

CITIZEN-SCIENTISTS AND THE FUTURE

“The Rise of the Citizen-Scientist” is the theme of the H+ Summit, to be held at Harvard University, June 12-13, and hosted by the Harvard College Future Society.

Among the 60 scheduled speakers are inventor Ray Kurzweil, physicist and business leader Stephen Wolfram, biologist Andrew Hessel, and gerontologist Aubrey De Grey, who will address such issues as AI, neuroscience, transhumanism, and accelerating change. Registration is $200, but a generous discount is given for students.

The Summit is organized by Humanity+, a nonprofit educational organization focused on applying technologies to human enhancement and on understanding the potential consequences of such pursuits. The Harvard College Future Society is a student organization dedicated to promoting awareness of the impacts of accelerating technological growth on future society.

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THE FUTURE MATTERS: Since 1966, members of the World Future Society have supported the publications, resources, research, and networking opportunities that have helped develop the field of futures studies. Now, our goals have expanded, and so has our need for your support, because “The Future Matters.”

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FUTURIST UPDATE: News & Previews from the World Future Society is an e-mail newsletter published monthly as a supplement to THE FUTURIST magazine. Copyright © 2010, World Future Society, 7910 Woodmont Avenue, Suite 450, Bethesda, MD 20814, USA. Telephone 1-301-656-8274; e-mail mailto:info@wfs.org Web site http://www.wfs.org

Editor: Cindy Wagner, mailto:cwagner@wfs.org
Senior Editor: Patrick Tucker, mailto:ptucker@wfs.org
Staff Writer: Aaron M. Cohen
Network Administrator: Jeff Cornish, mailto:jcornish@wfs.org
mailto:sechard@wfs.org

May 2010, Vol. 11, No. 5

In This Issue:
IT Jobs Drive U.S. Economic Engine
Fashion Faces Forward
Tech Prowess May Not Shorten Wars
State Prison Population Declines
Click of the Month: Mendeley Research Networks
News for the Futurist Community
What's hot @ WFS

IT JOBS DRIVE U.S. ECONOMIC ENGINE

Growth in information technology has contributed to an expansion of U.S. GDP of more than $52 billion in the past decade, and high-skill, high-wage IT jobs will continue to grow in the decade ahead, according to the Information Technology and Innovation Foundation.

Lower-end IT jobs such as computer programming will continue to flow out of the United States and into lower-wage regions, but the opportunities for high-end careers such as network design and administration will increase rapidly.

"The advent and expansion of new IT systems such as health IT and smart grids, the continued expansion of broadband, and the growth of e-commerce and e-government, show the importance of IT jobs to the U.S. economy going forward," states an ITIF report.

Look for job growth in network and database administration, systems analysis, software engineering, support specialists, and computer science.

SOURCE: Information Technology and Innovation Foundation

FASHION FACES FORWARD

A global industry generating $1.3 trillion in annual revenue, fashion faces the same issues affecting most other industries, including aging populations, shifting values, and accelerating technological change.

A new report by Levi Strauss and the Forum for the Future outlines four scenarios for a sustainable fashion industry by 2025:

1. Slow Is Beautiful: In a risk-averse marketplace, consumers demand durable, organic fabrics, and transparency on garments' socioeconomic and ecological footprints.

2. Community Couture: Fabrics may be new and expensive or "pre-loved" and cheap. Clothes are made at home or in community-run recycling centers. Clothing "libraries" rent garments for special occasions.

3. Techno Chic: A healthy, wealthy, high-tech world esteems smart textiles that facilitate low-ecological-impact lifestyles, such as nanotech coatings that reduce need for washing.

4. Patchwork Planet: Nationalism or regionalism dominates consumer choices, which gravitate toward personalization. Shorter supply chains mean clothing reaches customers faster, and resource shortages drive technological innovation.

SOURCE: "Fashion Futures," Forum for the Future

BUILD THE FUTURE AT WORLDFUTURE 2010!

Learn how to discover and build the future along with a thousand futurists from around the world at the World Future Society’s 2010 conference in Boston, to be held July 8-10 at the Westin Boston Waterfront Hotel.

The outstanding program will feature a rich diversity of speakers from around the world and in a wide array of fields--such as noted business futurist Arnold Brown, Harvard theologian Harvey Cox, and South Korean mayor Park Bo-saeng of Gimcheon City.
You’ll also have the opportunity to hone your own futuring skills in preconference courses ranging from an introduction to the field to advanced strategies in foresight, planning, and futures building.

TECH PROWESS MAY NOT SHORTEN WARS

If you want to win a war quickly, having the best attack technology may not necessarily help. Overconfidence in offensive technologies may cause an attacking country to ignore such limiting factors as terrain, climate, and training of personnel, notes political scientist Marco Nilsson in his PhD thesis at the University of Gothenburg in Sweden.

"Due to these limitations, attack-oriented technology normally does not allow a state to run over an enemy as easily as expected. Unless the attacked country collapses right away, the duration of most wars is decided at the negotiation table," says Nilsson, who studied all wars in the state system from 1817 to 1992.

Overconfidence in military prowess also leads to higher likelihood of both arms races and wars. Nilsson concludes that, if decision makers had a more realistic understanding of technologies' limitations, they would be more inclined to negotiate first, avoiding the high costs of long, drawn-out conflicts.

SOURCE: University of Gothenburg

STATE PRISON POPULATION DECLINES

The number of inmates in America’s state prisons fell for the first time in nearly 40 years, according to a study by the Pew Center on the States. Though the decline was small (0.4% from the end of 2008 to the end of 2009), “after so many years on the rise, any size drop is notable,” says Adam Gelb, director of the study project.

Not all states experienced a decline, but those that achieved cuts in prison populations did so largely through policy changes designed to “get taxpayers a better return on their public safety dollars,” says Gelb. For instance, Texas created more residential and community-based treatment programs to divert nonviolent offenders out of prisons.

Meanwhile, the federal prison population continues to grow, rising by 3.4% in the same period to reach an all-time high of 208,118 inmates. Reasons: expanded federal jurisdiction over certain crimes and increased prosecution of immigration cases.

SOURCE: Prison Count 2010, Pew Center on the States

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NOT A MEMBER?

FUTURIST UPDATE is a free monthly supplement to THE FUTURIST magazine, so if you're only receiving the Update, you're getting just a fraction of the information and ideas that you could be receiving.

In addition to the Update, World Future Society members receive THE FUTURIST, a 68-page bimonthly magazine featuring well-researched, thought-provoking articles by scholars, consultants, inventors, and even world leaders. Each issue includes World Trends & Forecasts, Tomorrow in Brief, a broad assortment of book reviews, and more. NO-RISK trial membership! Join the World Future Society now for just $59 a year ($20 for full-time students under age 25) to receive THE FUTURIST and other important benefits--and get the big picture of your future:
http://www.wfs.org/member.htm

http://www.wfs.org/member.htm

CLICK OF THE MONTH: MENDELEY RESEARCH NETWORKS

http://www.mendeley.com

Mendeley Research Networks lets you share and organize papers, find collaborators in your discipline, and track trends in research around the world.

The Mendeley desktop tool manages bibliographic citations, automatically extracting references from documents, and Mendeley Web facilitates collaboration, allowing for document sharing in closed groups. You can even track readership of your own papers.

Based in London, Mendeley is supported by some of the people behind Skype, Last.fm, and Warner Music.

BONUS CLICKS: ResearchGATE offers another online opportunity to collaborate with colleagues around the world, including the World Future Society's group:

http://www.researchgate.net/

http://www.researchgate.net/group/World_Future_Society/

NEWS FOR THE FUTURIST COMMUNITY

* SEEING 20/20: Project Renaissance will host a conference May 13-19 in Pasadena, Maryland, focusing on creative problem solving and enhanced/accelerated learning. The theme is “Seeing 20/20: See With Your Own Eyes and Mind,” celebrating the extraordinary overlap between creativity and learning to create “superlearning,” which may be applied in many fields. To learn more or register, visit http://www.winwenger.com/df18.htm

* “LOOKING BACK ON LOOKING FORWARD”: A call for abstracts (deadline June 1) has been issued for contributions to a special edition of FUTURES focusing on evaluating futures research in order to improve methodologies. The editors seek cross-disciplinary research, including either qualitative case-studies or quantitative work, and research involving both the public and the private sectors. Contributions should clearly indicate theoretical and/or managerial implications. Abstracts with a maximum of 1,000 words may be sent to Patrick van der Duin at mailto:p.a.vanderduin@tudelft.nl or Martijn van der Steen at mailto:steen@nsob.nl

* THE BUSINESS OF SOCIAL MEDIA: Business futures consultants Weiner, Edrich, Brown, Inc., have launched a major initiative to harness the power of social networking to gain new perspectives and insights that may be of use to their clients. In addition to establishing a presence on Facebook ( http://www.WEBonFacebook.com ) and Twitter (@WEBFutureTrends ), WEB has launched a blog where readers may add comments and questions: http://www.WeinerEdrichBrown.com/blog/

* MEGACRUNCH: In their new book, FUTURIST contributing editor Joseph Pelton and former Royal Television Society chairman Peter Marshall warn that the twenty-first century is fraught with mega-challenges that threaten to converge into a “megacrunch.” These forces include climate change, systemic unemployment due to technological advances, the North-South gap, and a clash between traditional and modern cultures. Pelton and Marshall outline 10 reforms we can act on now to avoid megacrunch, including reducing population, developing renewable energy sources, reducing carbon footprints everywhere, embracing smart growth and smart transportation, and futuring--i.e., taking the long-range perspective in decision making at every level. ORDER: http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/1450557023/thefuturistbooks

What's Hot @ WFS

* PREDICTING ELECTRONIC NEWS: Listeners of National Public Radio’s “All Things Considered” got a taste of the future recently when Paleo-Future blogger Matt Novak cited an issue of THE FUTURIST that forecast the advent of handheld electronic “newspapers” that we see all around us now. Coincidentally, the July-August 2010 issue of THE FUTURIST will also feature a look-back at that prediction, with reflections from one of the world’s first interactive journalists, Mike Greenly.

* INSPIRING IDEAS: Check out the World Future Society’s latest video on YouTube, “Ideas to Inspire Action.” Great thinkers through the ages, ranging from Marcus Aurelius to Margaret Mead, have inspired us to look ahead, work together, think innovatively, and build the future now. WATCH:

* BETA SITE TESTING ACCELERATES: The World Future Society’s effort to enhance its Web site—and member benefits—enters a new phase of beta testing. Features for members will include complete digital access to FUTURIST content, as well as blogs, forums, and other exclusives. Members of the Society may now log on (username is your member ID number, and the initial password is your last name, or the member’s surname of record, case-specific). Nonmembers are also welcome to browse the site’s nonexclusive content, including interviews with leading technologists, public policy makers, inventors, and futurists; an interactive foresight dictionary; and more than 250 forecasts about the future from the pages of THE FUTURIST magazine. Go to http://beta.wfs.org

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FUTURIST UPDATE: News & Previews from the World Future Society is an e-mail newsletter published monthly as a supplement to THE FUTURIST magazine. Copyright © 2010, World Future Society, 7910 Woodmont Avenue, Suite 450, Bethesda, MD 20814, USA. Telephone 1-301-656-8274; e-mail mailto:info@wfs.org Web site http://www.wfs.org

Editor: Cindy Wagner, mailto:cwagner@wfs.org

Senior Editor: Patrick Tucker, mailto:ptucker@wfs.org

Network Administrator: Jeff Cornish, mailto:jcornish@wfs.org

April 2010, Vol. 11, No. 4

In This Issue:
Networked Cars and Trucks
Writing in (and about) the Future
Near-Earth Objects: Risks and Implications
Experts Consider the Internet’s Future
Click of the Month: Destination Imagination
News for the Futurist Community
Feedback

NETWORKED CARS AND TRUCKS

An old automobile-safety message once advised, “Watch out for the other guy—he may not be watching out for you.” Now, inter-vehicular networking may help us do just that.

German researchers working with Volkswagen have created a radio-communication system enabling vehicles to contact each other. Dubbed C3World (Connected Cars in a Connected World), the system would, for instance, inform cars that an emergency vehicle is approaching the same intersection.

Another aspect of the technology will be easier integration of new generations of mobile phones and music players—products that typically have short life spans and become obsolete almost as soon as vehicle manufacturers install them.

SOURCES: Volkswagen, or here.

C3World Research Group,

WRITING IN (AND ABOUT) THE FUTURE

The journal-turned-magazine CREATIVE NONFICTION celebrated its transformation by organizing a one-day symposium, held at the Writer’s Center in Bethesda, Maryland, focused on how writing, reading, and publishing may be transformed in the decade ahead.

On the program were two futurists: Jay Ogilvy, co-founder of the Global Business Network, who described the usefulness of scenario thinking for weighing both optimistic and pessimistic visions of the future, and Dan Sarewitz, director of the Consortium for Science, Policy and Outcomes at Arizona State University, who warned of the unexpected consequences of human enhancement that many enthusiasts are hailing as a golden age of prosperity, pointing out that the greatest example of that enhancement is the soldier.

The bulk of the conference focused on how writers fit into this future, a time when people may be reading fewer books but communicating with one another and, yes, reading via a wider variety of platforms—e.g., blogs, Twitter, Facebook, and the multimedia digital Vook (video book) described by Jack Sallay, the company’s vice president of marketing.

Writers of the future will bear more of the responsibility of reaching their audiences, as publishers’ economic models become less supportive of traditional functions like marketing and promotion, many of the symposium participants argued. The good news is that there are more innovative new ways of doing-it-yourself, like building a community of supporters around an author’s blog.

As long as the written word is still valued (whether it is ultimately read, viewed, or listened to by the audience), writing has a future.

DETAILS: The Writer’s Center

Editor’s note: Writers interested more in writing about the future may also want to check out the Futurist Writer’s Workshop at the WFS conference in Boston

A WORLD OF IDEAS AT WORLDFUTURE 2010!

Indian futurist Mohan Tikku will examine terrorism and offer insights on how changing the global architecture may help contain this scourge. Engineer Stephen Thaler will explore how “creativity machines” may help us build far more efficient products far cheaper and answer fundamental metaphysical questions. And Nicole Freedman, director of Boston Bikes, will explain why the future will be two-wheeled.

You’ll hear these ideas and more at WorldFuture 2010: Sustainable Futures, Strategies, and Technologies, to be held in Boston, July 8-10, at the Westin Boston Waterfront Hotel.

The conference program boasts an outstanding lineup of speakers, such as renowned inventor Ray Kurzweil, journalist Michael Rogers, and former L’Oreal vice president Robert Salmon.

You may also want to attend one (or both) of the special keynote luncheons, which this year will feature presentations by Susan Avery, president and director of the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, on Friday and by workplace talent consultant Karen Moloney on Saturday.

NEAR-EARTH OBJECTS: RISKS AND IMPLICATIONS

If astronomers in Russia discover an asteroid heading toward an Ohio wind farm, but they don’t tell anyone, are they liable for damages? And what if they do inform everyone about the potential impact, but the U.S. and Russian governments can’t agree on a mission to avert the asteroid’s impact: Could the wind farm’s insurance carrier sue both governments?

These are the types of scenarios that need exploration as astronomers around the world attain the ability to precisely predict potential impacts of near-earth objects.

A recent workshop in Mexico City outlined the steps necessary to create a global network that would not only track, predict, and warn of near-earth objects, but also coordinate legal and institutional responses. Coordinated by Secure World Foundation, the workshop results were presented to the UN’s Committee on Peaceful Uses of Outer Space.

SOURCE: Secure World Foundation

EXPERTS CONSIDER THE INTERNET'S FUTURERE

Is the Internet making us smarter, stupider, more dependent on it, or all of the above?

The Pew Internet & American Life Project and Elon University's Imagining the Internet Center asked dozens of experts—such as Google research director Peter Norvig, futurist blogger Jamais Cascio, and tech watcher Esther Dyson—to consider the future of the Internet-connected world between now and 2020.

Most of the experts agreed that the Internet will make us smarter in some way by 2020.

"In the coming years we will have to continue to teach people to think critically so they can better understand the wealth of information available to them," said Jeska Dzwigalski of Linden Lab.

Janna Quitney Anderson of Elon University and Lee Rainie of Pew Internet & American Life Center put the survey together. They'll speak on it and on the future of the Internet at WorldFuture 2010, the World Future Society’s annual meeting in Boston in July.

LEARN MORE: http://www.wfs.org/2010main.htm

SOURCE: Pew Research

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GOODSHOP AND GOODSEARCH FOR WFS

Did you know: The World Future Society earns a donation every time you search the Internet and a percentage of every purchase you make online when you link through GoodSearch and GoodShop.

GoodSearch.com is a Yahoo-powered search engine that donates half its advertising revenue, about a penny per search, to the charities its users designate. GoodShop.com is an online shopping mall that donates up to 30% of each purchase to your favorite cause.

And if you download the GoodSearch–World Future Society toolbar, WFS will earn money every time you shop and search online, even if you forget to go to GoodShop or GoodSearch first.

GoodSearch:

GoodShop:

Add the World Future Society - WFS(Bethesda MD) toolbar.

GIVE DIRECTLY TO WFS: Membership fees alone cannot cover the many publications, services, programs, and activities that the World Future Society provides to accomplish our mission of helping individuals and organizations build a better future. Please give generously, and thank you for your support! http://www.wfs.org/donate.htm

CLICK OF THE MONTH: DESTINATION IMAGINATION

http://www.idodi.org/

Destination ion ImagiNation inspires young learners to collaborate on innovative problem-solving challenges and compete with other teams from around the world.

The program reaches 100,000 students a year in 30 countries, offering after-school activities and annual competitions to promote creative thinking and team work.

The organization also offers similar curricula for clients in its Destination ion ImagiNation 4-Life program.

NEWS FOR THE FUTURIST COMMUNITY

* SOUTH AFRICAN FUTURES CONFERENCE: The World Future Society’s South African chapter will hold its first South African futures conference on May 6-7, 2010, in Cape Town. The conference theme is “Energy, Environment and Economics: Imagineering the Future of South Africa to 2030” and will aim to build consensus around a 2030 vision for the nation. DETAILS http://www.wfs-sa.com/ or contact WFS-SA founder and chairman Michael Lee, mailto:futurevalueforesight@gmail.com or mailto:wfs.southafrica@gmail.com

* LATIN AMERICA 2010-2030: The Millennium Project invites participants

mailto:jose@millennium-project.org or go to http://millennium-project.org/millennium/DelphiLatinAmerica2030.html.html

* CALL FOR VISIONS ON RACIAL EQUITY: Demographers predict that, by 2042, Whites will no longer be the majority race in the United States. Ohio State University’s Kirwan Institute for the Study of Race & Ethnicity has called for essays (1,000-2,000 words) envisioning a new racial order in the U.S. of 2042: Will there be greater racial equity and justice, and how will this change look and feel? Deadline for submissions is May 17.

DETAILS, Visions 2042 http://www.race-talk.org/?page_id=3512 or http://www.kirwaninstitute.or

* SOCIAL TECHNOLOGIES REBRANDS AS S AS INNOVARO: Futures consultancy Social Technologies has now become Innovaro under its parent company UTEK Corporation. Innovaro’s activities will focus on client-based foresight, trend analysis, and strategic planning. Social Technologies' long-running multi-client research projects (Futures Consortium, Global Lifestyles, and Technology Foresight) will continue as part of Innovaro Insights & Research. DETAILS http://www.Innovaro.com

What's Hot @ WFS

* HIGH SCHOOL ESSAY CONTEST: Deadline is April 15 for entering the World Future Society’s second annual essay contest for high school students. Essays should explore the impacts of trends on future career choices and what we can do to prepare for the jobs of tomorrow. The winner will receive $300, a three-year membership in the Society, and complimentary registration at WorldFuture 2010 in Boston. DETAILS http://www.wfs.org/2010essay.htm

* WHAT’S NEXT IN THE FUTURIST: Computers will get better at reading your mind. … Another great boom is ahead in industries ranging from nanotech to clean tech. … More “2020 Visionaries” explore the futures of the global environment and of democracy. … Read these stories and more in the May-June 2010 issue of THE FUTURIST, which mails to WFS members and subscribers on April 5. Join WFS or renew your membership now to ensure that you get your copy http://www.wfs.org/member.htm

* BETA SITE TESTING ACCELERATES: The World Future Society’s effort to enhance its Web site—and member benefits—enters a new phase of beta testing. Features for members will include complete digital access to FUTURIST content, as well as blogs, forums, and other exclusives. Members of the Society may now log on (username is your member ID number, and the initial password is your last name, or the member’s surname of record, case-specific). Nonmembers are also welcome to browse the site’s nonexclusive content, including interviews with leading technologists, public policy makers, inventors, and futurists; an interactive foresight dictionary; and more than 250 forecasts about the future from the pages of THE FUTURIST magazine. Go to http://www.wfs.org

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FUTURIST UPDATE: News & Previews from the World Future Society is an e-mail newsletter published monthly as a supplement to THE FUTURIST magazine. Copyright © 2010, World Future Society, 7910 Woodmont Avenue, Suite 450, Bethesda, MD 20814, USA. Telephone 1-301-656-8274; e-mail mailto:info@wfs.org Web site http://www.wfs.org
Editor: Cindy Wagner, mailto:cwagner@wfs.org
Senior Editor: Patrick Tucker, mailto:ptucker@wfs.org
Staff Writer: Aaron M. Cohen
Network Administrator: Jeff Cornish, mailto:jcornish@wfs.org

March 2010, Vol. 11, No. 3

In This Issue:
Ghana’s Promising Future
Loneliness in an Interconnected World
Preventive Care Could Save Trillions of Dollars
Specialists versus Generalists: Lessons from Figure Skating
Click of the Month: Weiner, Edrich, Brown, Inc
News for the Futurist Community

GHANA’S PROMISING FUTURE

While far from the epicenter of the most recent global financial crisis, much of Africa was severely impacted by it. Faring better than its neighbors is Ghana, which has nearly halved its poverty rate since 1992, sustained a 5% average annual growth rate, and held peaceful elections in 2004 and 2008, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

“You do sense a country that is moving forward,” says Peter Allum, IMF mission chief for Ghana. “There’s an enormous amount of energy and excitement there on the streets. You also see the poverty, and it makes you realize what a challenge lies ahead for the country in terms of job creation for these young people.”

Foreign investment from recession-afflicted countries has dried up, and Ghanaians working abroad have had less money to send back home, notes IMF First Deputy Managing Director John Lipsky. So building up economic resilience domestically has become more imperative.

Gold and cocoa exports have kept Ghana going, but moving forward may require it to develop another source of new wealth: oil. Ghana is unlikely to become another Saudi Arabia, says Lipsky, “but it could be producing enough oil to satisfy its domestic needs with some left over for export. The key to Ghana’s future growth, of course, is to use this newfound wealth wisely.”

SOURCE: International Monetary Fund

LONELINESS IN AN INTERCONNECTED WORLD

The average American today has only a third as many friends as 25 years ago, and one-fourth have no close confidants at all, according to recently released data from medical researchers. The Internet may be largely to blame, says Michael Bugeja, author of INTERPERSONAL DIVIDE (Oxford University Press, 2005).

Many people have a swarm of friends on Facebook, but do they ever call? “Friending” is not the same as “befriending”—being a friend—Bugeja notes, arguing that instead of creating a global village, the Internet has distracted and distanced us from each other.

One impact is that lonely people have no one to turn to in hard times, whereas during the Depression people relied on each other. Now, when people can no longer afford the communications devices they’ve come to rely on instead of people, they become truly isolated. As a result, suicide rates may increase, even among young children, Bugeja warns.

EDUCATION SUMMIT AND LEARNING OPPORTUNITIES AT WORLDFUTURE 2010!

Robots in the classroom, “power teaching,” and innovative problem-solving strategies will all be explored at the annual Education Summit immediately preceding the opening of WorldFuture 2010 in Boston, July 8-10, at the Westin Boston Waterfront Hotel.

The Summit will address the challenges and opportunities of demographic and technological transformation to improve learning in the future. DETAILS,

Futurists looking to enhance their own skills will also have a variety of learning opportunities before the conference gets under way. Courses range from introductory to advanced, such as how to build and use scenarios and using patterns of inventions to predict the future.

The conference program itself boasts an outstanding lineup of speakers, such as journalist Michael Rogers, former “futurist-in-residence” for the New York Times Company. Rogers will explore what it will mean for us to live more of our lives “virtualized”—a social transformation that he argues is as potentially impactful as the rise of cities.

PREVENTIVE CARE COULD SAVE TRILLIONS OF DOLLARS

Health-care practitioners need to broaden their focus to include greater preventive care, urges Kevin Fickenscher, Dell Perot Systems vice president of strategic initiatives.

During a recent presentation to the Washington, D.C. chapter of the World Future Society, Fickenscher declared that preventive care is one way to repair the overstressed U.S. health-care system.

The key challenge to fixing health care is reducing the financial stresses on the system, he says. By shifting the emphasis to include prevention as well as treatment, Fickenscher estimates that the health-care industry could save trillions of dollars and improve the quality of life for many.

Preventive health care entails focusing on larger cultural issues such as lack of exercise, diet and nutrition, and smoking. However, the current financial incentives for medical practitioners encourage them to conduct medical tests to diagnose a disease—but not to instruct their patients to eat healthier and exercise more before health problems develop.

Fickenscher will speak more on these critical issues at the World Future Society’s annual meeting in Boston in July.

SPECIALISTS VERSUS GENERALISTS: LESSONS FROM FIGURE SKATING

Questions about figure skating’s future recently arose from 2010 Olympic silver medalist Yevgeny Plushenko (Russia). In interviews following the competition, he observed that the gold medalist, Evan Lysacek (USA), had failed to perform a quadruple jump. Without proficiency in that maneuver, claimed Plushenko (himself an Olympic champion in 2006), figure skating cannot progress as a sport.

While many in the (non-Russian) media dismissed Plushenko’s comments as sour grapes, he raised an interesting issue: Should the sport (or any profession) value the specialist above the generalist?

After the Salt Lake City Games eight years ago, figure skating changed its scoring system to eliminate (or at least reduce) national bias and corruption among the judges. Now, all elements of a competitor’s program are to be scored, minimizing the influence of spectacular jumps (which some argue are too damaging to young athletes’ bodies anyway).

In this environment, for Plushenko to claim that only the quadruple jump matters in skating would be like saying only home runs matter in baseball. On a baseball team, there may be many specialists: Without excellent pitching and precision fielding to counter the sluggers at the plate, baseball games would always have double-digit scores and last three days.

The difference is that, in skating (and in many professional activities), there is no team of specialists working toward a goal of general excellence. Rather, the individual must strive to perform at the highest possible level in a variety of specialties. Whether this ethos is sustainable for the future depends on how highly we value specialized excellence—or how effectively we build our teams.

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OXFORD SCENARIOS PROGRAMME

17-21 May or 6–10 September 2010, £4,750 (ex VAT) all inclusive, Saïd Business School, University of Oxford.

This programme helps you identify the crucial drivers of change shaping the wider context. With the future in mind, you will learn how to develop strategies, policies or programmes to prepare your organisation for tomorrow's turbulent and uncertain business climate.

DETAILS/CONTACT: mailto:caroline.williams@sbs.ox.ac.uk http://www.sbs.ox.ac.uk/execed/strategy/scenarios

CLICK OF THE MONTH: WEINER, EDRICH, BROWN, INC.

http://WeinerEdrichBrown.com

A fresh new look and unique resources are featured on the Web site of this pioneering business-future consultancy, led by chairman Arnold Brown, president Edie Weiner, and vice president Erica Orange, all of whom have been frequent contributors to WFS publications and conferences.

In the “From Our Files” section, WEB offers five years’ worth of downloadable archived working papers drawn from research analyses for their clients.

Don’t miss their Futurist Glossary, showcasing ideas so unique that they require a new vocabulary for futurists and trend watchers: e.g., “accumulous cloud” (information accumulating in data-rich cloud computers) “betweenity” (time between life stages), and “dividual” (a person fitting in more than one demographic or lifestyle category).

NEWS FOR THE FUTURIST COMMUNITY

STRATEGIC FORESIGHT SEMINAR: The University of Houston’s Strategic Foresight Seminar is an intensive, five-day, project based workshop, running May 17-21. Sponsored by the Futures Studies in Commerce program and conducted by Peter Bishop, the seminar offers a certificate in strategic foresight. Registration is now open, with seating limited to 25 participants. DETAILS and REGISTRATION

* WRITING IN AND ABOUT THE FUTURE: The Writer’s Center in Bethesda, Maryland, will be hosting Creative Nonfiction’s all-day conference on Writing the Future on March 20. Panelists include New York Times interface specialist Nick Bilton, social publishing visionary Richard Nash, and Lee Gutkind, author of ALMOST HUMAN.

Editor’s note: Writers interested more in writing about the future may also want to check out the Futurist Writer’s Workshop at the WFS conference in Boston

* CALL FOR PAPERS: THE JOURNAL OF FUTURES STUDIES will be publishing a special issue February 2011 on “Path Breaking and Path Creation.” Editor Victor Tiberius is seeking papers of 5,000 to 7,000 words offering insights on path dependence theory and futures research. DETAILS and SUBMISSION GUIDELINES

* HIGH SCHOOL ESSAY CONTEST: The World Future Society is now accepting entries for its second annual essay contest for high school students. Essays should explore the impacts of trends on future career choices and what we can do to prepare for the jobs of tomorrow. The winner will receive $300, a three-year membership in the Society, and complimentary registration at WorldFuture 2010 in Boston.

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FUTURIST UPDATE: News & Previews from the World Future Society is an e-mail newsletter published monthly as a supplement to THE FUTURIST magazine. Copyright © 2010, World Future Society, 7910 Woodmont Avenue, Suite 450, Bethesda, MD 20814, USA. Telephone 1-301-656-8274; e-mail mailto:info@wfs.org Web site http://www.wfs.org

Editor: Cindy Wagner, mailto:cwagner@wfs.org
Senior Editor: Patrick Tucker, mailto:ptucker@wfs.org
Staff Writer: Aaron M. Cohen
Network Administrator: Jeff Cornish, mailto:jcornish@wfs.org

February 2010, Vol. 11, No. 2

In This Issue:
Youth Summit Builds Public-Service Campaign
Pollution Reduces Rain in China
U.S. States Scramble to Balance Budgets
Gloomy Mood May Doom the European Union
Click of the Month: Timeline of Education 1657-2045
News for the Futurist Community
What's Hot @WFS.ORG

YOUTH SUMMIT BUILDS PUBLIC-SERVICE CAMPAIGN

If you want something done, assign it to people who don’t know it can’t be done.

It took just one weekend for a group of 20 young people from across the United States to create a public-service campaign promoting a society that is more inclusive of individuals with disabilities. (The accomplishment is especially impressive when one considers how long it would take a typical organization to complete such a task.)

The National Youth Inclusion Summit took place January 8-10 at the Imagination Stage in Bethesda, Maryland, organized by the Including Samuel Project and led by filmmaker Dan Habib.

The teenage advocates hosted viewing parties of Habib's documentary about his son, “Including Samuel,” and then brought their insights and ideas to the Summit.

Working in small teams, participants ultimately created two videos that could be used in viral marketing campaigns: “I Am Norm” used the theme that everyone is different, so we are all normal. “Inclusion: It’s That Easy” dramatized a simple lunchroom scenario of kids noticing when someone is feeling left out.

The Including Samuel Project is a program of the University of New Hampshire’s Institute on Disability. Groups participating in the Summit included the National Inclusion Project, the Boys & Girls Clubs of America, Kids Included Together, Girl Scouts of the USA, Victor Pineda Foundation, and VSA arts, with support from the Mitsubishi Electric America Foundation.

DETAILS: The Including Samuel Project

POLLUTION REDUCES RAIN IN CHINA

High levels of air pollution have reduced the amount of light rainfall in eastern China by almost 25% over the past 50 years, according to an international study supported by Sweden’s University of Gothenburg. The reduced rainfall negatively impacts agriculture and human health (not to mention the environment) in the most densely populated region in the country.

Excess smog, smoke, and airborne particles reduce the size of raindrops in the atmosphere. The smaller the water droplets, the harder it is for them to gather into rain clouds.

China’s population growth over the past century has contributed to an 800% increase in air pollution, according to the researchers. China is now the world leader in carbon-dioxide emissions.

SOURCE: University of Gothenburg

BUILD YOUR OWN FUTURING CURRICULUM AT WORLDFUTURE 2010!

Learn how to build a better future along with a thousand futurists from around the world at the World Future Society’s 2010 conference in Boston, to be held July 8-10 at the Westin Boston Waterfront Hotel.

In addition to an outstanding program of 150 speakers--such as eminent inventor Ray Kurzweil and Yale University ethicist Wendell Wallach--you’ll have the opportunity to hone your own futuring skills with a diverse selection of courses, ranging from an introduction to the field to advanced strategies in foresight, planning, and futures building.

U.S. STATES SCRAMBLE TO BALANCE BUDGETS

The global economic recession has left most U.S. states focused primarily on balancing their budgets and generating revenue, the number-one legislative priority, according to the National Conference of State Legislatures. Collectively, the states had a nearly $146 billion budget gap at the end of 2009.

Other priorities for the states include controlling health-care costs while increasing coverage, lowering unemployment rates, making higher education more affordable, and addressing the costs of prisons while maintaining public safety and reducing recidivism.

The unexpected impacts of new technologies also have legislators scrambling for ways to better serve constituents. For instance, some states are now considering prohibiting drivers from texting and talking on cell phones and expanding the collection of DNA to all offenders and not just felons.

SOURCE: National Conference of State Legislatures

GLOOMY MOOD MAY DOOM EUROPEAN UNION

The rapid expansion of the European Union in the past decade parallels that of the United States just before the Civil War. In both cases, the unions seemed strong until the economic environment soured. Could the EU be headed for a civil war?

Perhaps not war, but “divorce” (civil or otherwise) may be imminent for Europe, claims the Socionomic Institute.

“Both unions appeared to be strong when markets were rising. But once stocks reversed, the stress of a bear market severed those bonds quickly,” explains study author Brian Whitmer, editor of Elliott Wave International’s EUROPEAN FINANCIAL FORECAST. “War eventually broke out among the U.S. states, and I believe that an equally perilous period is coming for the countries of the EU.”

COMMENT: Just as money problems often uncover long-buried grudges among married couples, leading to divorce, economic stressors may undo the bonds that European states have forged in recent decades. Perhaps "marriage counseling" in the form of proactive conflict resolution could help European leaders identify and resolve underlying tensions and avert the nightmare scenario of civil war.

SOURCE: The Socionomics Institute

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OXFORD SCENARIOS PROGRAMME

17-21 May or 6–10 September 2010, £4,750 (ex VAT) all inclusive, Saïd Business School, University of Oxford.

In today’s uncertain business climate this programme identifies the critical drivers of change that are shaping the wider context. You will understand how to influence the continued success of your team and organisation; to assess the resilience of your current resources and activities; and, as a consequence your strategic options for success.

DETAILS/CONTACT: mailto:caroline.williams@sbs.ox.ac.uk http://www.sbs.ox.ac.uk/execed/strategy/scenarios

CLICK OF THE MONTH: TIMELINE OF EDUCATION 1657-2045

http://www.educationfutures.com/resources/timeline/

Education Futures celebrates its fifth anniversary by looking back at the history of education and forecasting the next 35 years.

"Utilizing many of the best resources for projecting futures for human capital development, this timeline presents a glimpse of the past, present, and plausible futures for education," states the site, developed by John Moravec, a faculty member of the University of Minnesota's Innovation Studies program.

Among the timeline's forecasts: New York City will close 80% of its public schools by 2023 due to shifts in demographics and competition from informal modes of learning. By 2032, teachers and faculty who refuse to upgrade their cognitive functioning will be asked to resign. By 2035, intelligent machines deciding to have children will lead to a "golden age" of nonhuman creativity.

NEWS FOR THE FUTURIST COMMUNITY

* IS EGYPT TOO POOR FOR FORESIGHT? In an end-of-the-year op-ed for AL-AHRAM, economics futurist Ibrahim El-Issawy argues that futures research should not be considered a luxury but rather a priority in developing countries such as Egypt. In fact, it is becoming increasingly common, he notes. "A long list of future visions for developing countries exists, including, for example, India 2020, Malaysia 2020, and China 2050. Almost all development success stories have involved futures research of one sort or another. Good development requires good planning...." READ "Selecting a Better Tomorrow"

* GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE SITUATION ROOM: The latest venture by the Millennium Project is a situation room for deploying collective intelligence on climate science, energy, green technology, adaptation, mitigation, and integration of sustainable development and climate change. The project will develop new software and user interfaces to link networks of outstanding experts as a resource for helping the UN, governments, businesses, NGOs, and individuals to understand climate change and its potential impacts. DETAILS The Millennium Project http://www.millennium-project.org , http://www.mpcollab.org , or http://www.millennium-project.org/millennium/presentations/Fact_Sheet_De...

* ORGANIZING FUTURIST INTEREST GROUPS: A special session devoted to organizing local futurist interest groups (FIGs) is now being planned for the World Future Society's annual meeting in Boston, July 8-10. The session will discuss what a local FIG can do for its participants and examine opportunities and challenges for keeping local groups vibrant. If you plan to attend, please help the planners tailor the session to your interests and needs. CONTACT Dave Stein, mailto:info@futuretakes.org

WHAT'S HOT @WFS.ORG

* SOLUTIONS FOR A BETTER FUTURE: Why support futures studies? Because it helps solve major world problems. In fact, good foresight regularly practiced can alleviate many of the most intractable problems, such as health care, hunger, resource shortages, and transportation issues. Many examples of futurism as problem solving are profiled in a special report by FUTURIST senior editor Patrick Tucker.

- READ SOLUTIONS FOR A BETTER FUTURE

- SUPPORT THE WORLD FUTURE SOCIETY and its programs for future problem solving

* TOP 10 FORECASTS ON FUTURE TV: Our searches for extraterrestrial intelligence, sustainable energy solutions, and love will all get a boost in the decade ahead. A new video Illustrates the top 10 forecasts from the World Future Society's annual Outlook report.

* THE FUTURIST magazine and Encyclopædia Britannica are partnering for a joint blog series on Learning and Literacy in the Digital Age, to run on Britannica.com. The series will feature essays from FUTURIST contributors Nick Carr, Mark Bauerlein, Patrick Tucker, and WorldFuture 2010 Speaker Janna Anderson. READ

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FUTURIST UPDATE: News & Previews from the World Future Society is an e-mail newsletter published monthly as a supplement to THE FUTURIST magazine. Copyright © 2010, World Future Society, 7910 Woodmont Avenue, Suite 450, Bethesda, MD 20814, USA. Telephone 1-301-656-8274; e-mail mailto:info@wfs.org Web site http://www.wfs.org

Editor: Cindy Wagner, mailto:cwagner@wfs.org
Senior Editor: Patrick Tucker, mailto:ptucker@wfs.org
Staff Writer: Aaron M. Cohen
Network Administrator: Jeff Cornish, mailto:jcornish@wfs.org

January 2010, Vol. 11, No. 1

In This Issue:
Video Games and Impacts on Performance
Cases of Diabetes Will Double
Mobilizing the Millennials
Futurist's Reading List
Click of the Month: iMinds.com
News for the Futurist Community
What's Hot @WFS.ORG

VIDEO GAMES AND IMPACTS ON PERFORMANCE

The types of video games you play may affect your performance at school, work, or other activities, according to Wheaton College psychology professor Rolf Nelson.

Playing an adrenaline-pumping action game for an hour before doing your homework or tackling a task at work could help you finish the assignment quickly--but with lots of mistakes. Playing a strategy game, on the other hand, will yield more-accurate work, but at the cost of speed, observes Nelson.

In his study, published with co-author Ian Strachan in the journal PERCEPTION, Nelson tested subjects playing either a fast-action video game (Unreal Tournament) or a puzzle-solving video game (Portal).

“While there has been a great deal of [research] focused on performance differences between non-video-game players and avid video-game players, we were interested in looking at the effects of playing different types of video games," Nelson says. “Results convincingly demonstrate a priming effect for two different types of video games.”

SOURCE: Wheaton College

CASES OF DIABETES WILL DOUBLE

Two decades ago, dire warnings were sounded about cases of diabetes doubling in the United States to 11.6 million by 2030. Now, that number is projected to be nearly quadruple the earlier forecast, increasing from 23.7 million in 2009 to 44.1 million in 2034, according to medical researchers at the University of Chicago.

The costs of treating individuals with diabetes will likewise skyrocket, as improvements in health care have enabled patients to live longer and thus become more vulnerable to problems later in life, such as blindness, kidney disease, and amputations.

The steady rise in diabetes cases parallels the steady rise in obesity in the United States over the last few decades, the researchers note.

"If we don't change our diet and exercise habits or find new, more effective and less expensive ways to prevent and treat diabetes, we will find ourselves in a lot of trouble as a population," warns lead author Elbert Huang, MD, assistant professor of medicine at the University of Chicago.

SOURCE: University of Chicago Medical Center

LAST CHANCE TO SAVE $200 FOR WORLDFUTURE 2010!

Mark your calendar now to join a thousand futurists from around the world at the World Future Society’s 2010 conference in Boston, to be held July 8-10 at the Westin Boston Waterfront Hotel.

You'll meet and learn from an estimated 150 speakers, such as Yale University ethicist Wendell Wallach, who will deliver the opening plenary presentation, as well as Harvard University theologian Harvey Cox, inventors Ray Kurzweil and Stephen Thaler, health futurist Kevin Fickenscher, and media experts Michael Rogers, Lee Rainie, and Michael R. Nelson.

MOBILIZING THE MILLENNIALS

A foundation to promote youth philanthropy, an interactive game to promote financial literacy, and electronic budget journals for daily "wealth watching" are among the award-winning ideas generated at the recent Youth Summit sponsored by the Peter G. Peterson Foundation and Mobilize.org.

The summit brought together young people from around the United States to discuss issues affecting members of the millennial generation, such as high rates of unemployment and student debt. Their discussions in work groups led to the development of solutions, which were then voted upon by the group, with the winning proposals receiving funding from Mobilize.org.

First place winner was Daniel Kaufman of Sacramento, California, whose One Percent Foundation calls on young people "to make a collective impact by making recurring donations of 1% of their annual income through a single funding entity."

SOURCES: Mobilize.org; Peter G. Peterson Foundation

FUTURIST’S READING LIST

Here are a few new books for your futurist-reading holiday gift list:

ENOUGH IS PLENTY by Anne B. Ryan (O Books): Human and planetary well-being as the focus for decision making.

THE FUTURIST by Rebecca Keegan (Crown): Filmmaker as futurist: profile of AVATAR director James Cameron.

HOW GOOD PEOPLE MAKE TOUGH CHOICES (Rev. Ed.) by Rushworth M. Kidder (Harper Paperbacks): Right versus wrong is easy; right versus right is much tougher for values-based decision makers.

THE INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT by Leslie Hamilton and Philip Webster (Oxford University Press USA): Textbook on globalization and its implications for organizations.

Pre-order these 2010 titles:

FROM BOOM TO BUST AND BEYOND (paperback ed.) by Jerry Tuma (Excel, March 2, 2010): Investment adviser gleans insight from current trends and shows how to thrive in the years ahead.

GEO-ENGINEERING CLIMATE CHANGE: Environmental Necessity or Pandora's Box? by J. Michael T. Thompson and Brian Launder (Cambridge University Press, January 31): Critical appraisal of mega-engineering projects to save the planet.

TOWARD HUMAN EMERGENCE by Philip R. Harris (HRD Press, March 15): How will humans manage their activities in space-based civilizations?

WHAT IS NANOTECHNOLOGY AND WHY DOES IT MATTER by Fritz Allhoff et al. (Wiley-Blackwell, March 1, 2010): Impartial look at the innovations and risks of world-changing emerging technologies.

And check out these notable backlist titles:

HISTORY AND FUTURE by David J. Staley (Lexington, 2007): A history professor and futurist illustrates the value of historical thinking for imagining tomorrow.

HOW TO RE-IMAGINE THE WORLD by Anthony Weston (New Society, 2007): Aptly subtitled “A Pocked Guide for Practical Visionaries.”

CLICK OF THE MONTH: iMINDS

http://www.iminds.com

If you’d rather use your spare time learning something than drowning your ears in the latest tunes from reality-show celebrities, the library of eight-minute audio lessons offered by iMinds may be what you’re looking for.

While you’re unlikely to earn your PhD this way, iMinds gives you the opportunity to keep learning 24/7, with on-demand selections ranging from wind power to the Seven Wonders of the World.

A Generalists’ collection (1 hour and 40 minutes of knowledge grabs) includes tracks on anime, the bubonic plague, and flash mobs; the Genius collection offers 10 hours of tracks covering such topics as behavioral economics, hemophilia, D-Day, and Andy Warhol.

Shorter tracks developed for younger learners are also offered through the site’s iMindsJNR division, with topics that could supplement classroom work, such as the Great Rivers, Atoms, and the Cold War.

NOTE, do not confuse iMinds.com with iMind.com, a defunct dot-com venture savagely parodied on a domain now for sale (the current bid is $60,000).

NEWS FOR THE FUTURIST COMMUNITY

* FORESIGHT 2010: The Synergy of Molecular Manufacturing and Artificial General Intelligence is the theme of the Foresight Institute's meeting to be held January 16-17 in Palo Alto, California. The symposium will examine the convergence of several rapidly developing technologies and their profound potential impacts on economies and societies. Confirmed speakers include Paul Saffo, J. Storrs Hall, Ralph Merkle, and other top technology experts. DETAILS:

* EU 2020 STRATEGY: The European Commission has issued a public consultation document on strategies for greener and more socially inclusive economic growth. The consultation paper focuses on approaches to recovering from economic crisis, creating value through knowledge, empowering people through inclusive societies, and creating a competitive, connected, and greener economy. Public responses are due January 15. VIEW the document

* SECURITY IN FUTURES - SECURITY IN CHANGE. The Finland Futures Research Centre's conference to be held June 3-4, 2010, in Turku, Finland, will look deeply into the inevitable changes of security issues. The conference will bring together global experts from the scientific community, policy makers, and representatives of companies to develop images of alternative futures. The goal is to provide leaders with new viewpoints and novel ideas for making the world a better place. The abstract submissions are due on February 1, 2010. DETAILS:

WHAT'S HOT @WFS.ORG

* OUTSTANDING FUTURISTS AND YOUNG FUTURISTS: Whose work in futuring and foresight during 2009 should be recognized at the World Future Society’s next annual meeting? Nominations for the Outstanding Futurist and Young Futurist of the Year are open until December 31. DETAILS and NOMINATION FORM:

* GIFTS FOR FUTURISTS: Here are three easy ways that you can Give the Future to a friend!

1. Share the future all year long with your clients, colleagues, friends, and family with gift memberships in the World Future Society ($59 per year for the first membership and just $47 each for all others). ORDER:

2. Gear up with WFS T-shirts, hats, tote bags, and other gifts at Café Press:

3. Shop online and support the World Future Society by using GoodShop to access more than a thousand participating stores that give back up to 30% of your purchase to WFS. GOODSHOP NOW:

* HAPPY BIRTHDAY, FUTURIST UPDATE! That's right, the World Future Society's free e-mail newsletter turns 10 years old with this edition. What were futurists talking about in January 2000 (besides being grateful that our computers still worked)? Check out Volume 1, Number 1 of FUTURIST UPDATE http://www.wfs.org/futupja00.htm

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FUTURIST UPDATE: News & Previews from the World Future Society is an e-mail newsletter published monthly as a supplement to THE FUTURIST magazine. Copyright © 2009, World Future Society, 7910 Woodmont Avenue, Suite 450, Bethesda, MD 20814, USA. Telephone 1-301-656-8274; e-mail mailto:info@wfs.org Web site http://www.wfs.org

Editor: Cindy Wagner, mailto:cwagner@wfs.org
Senior Editor: Patrick Tucker, mailto:ptucker@wfs.org
Network Administrator: Jeff Cornish, mailto:jcornish@wfs.org

Futurist Update 2009 Issues

December 2009, Vol. 10, No. 12

In This Issue:
* Kilimanjaro May Be Snowless in 20 Years
* Fashioning a Solution for Female Workers
* Women Reach Parity—As HIV/AIDS Victims
* Click of the Month: Trendsin Japan
* News for the Futurist Community
* What’s Hot @WFS.org:
* Submitted Feedback

KILIMANJARO MAY BE SNOWLESS IN 20 YEARS

The snows of Kilimanjaro may disappear within the next two decades or sooner, predict researchers from Ohio State University and the National Science Foundation (NSF)

The researchers are worried not only by the rapid retreat of the ice fields atop Kilimanjaro, but by the ice surface’s thinning. They now believe that the volume of ice lost to thinning is equal to that lost by shrinkage, which is occurring on all sides of the famed Tanzanian mountain.

"The loss of Mount Kilimanjaro's ice cover has attracted worldwide attention because of its impact on regional water resources," says David Verardo, director of the NSF's Paleoclimate Program. "Like many glaciers in mid-to-low latitudes, Kilimanjaro's may only be with us for a short time longer."
SOURCE: National Science Foundation

FASHIONING A SOLUTION FOR FEMALE WORKERS

Designers of work clothes need to keep female workers’ needs in mind, according to Jan Peters, president of the Women’s Engineering Society (WES) in Britain. Fashioning better-fitting garments will not only keep workers safer, but also make the careers requiring them more attractive.

“There are over 65,000 women working in engineering, technology, and construction. That's around 10% of the workforce,” says Peters. “But women are built differently from men and find that work-wear is not satisfactory. Inappropriate and ill-fitting clothing can put them off from pursuing careers in these sectors.”

Safety clothing and boots that are too big are also unsafe, so Britain’s female engineers are urging women working in science, engineering, technological, and construction industries to share their complaints with clothing manufacturers.

In the future, female construction workers won’t have to pack extra socks so their work boots will fit. And perhaps the idea of wearing ill-fitting work clothes will no longer keep young girls from pursuing careers in engineering, construction, and other trades.

SOURCE: Women’s Engineering Society

DISCOVER STRATEGIES AND TECHNOLOGIES FOR SUSTAINABLE FUTURES!

Join a thousand forward-thinking men and women from around the world at WorldFuture 2010: Sustainable Futures, Strategies, and Technologies, to be held in Boston, July 8-10, at the Westin Boston Waterfront Hotel.

You’ll hear inventors Ray Kurzweil and Stephen Thaler, health futurists Kevin Fickenscher and Jay Herson, and media experts Michael Rogers, Lee Rainie, and Michael R. Nelson. Also among recently confirmed speakers is education futurist Gary Marx, president of the Center for Public Outreach.

Panel sessions, workshops, and stimulating keynote presentations will focus on what we mean by “sustainable futures,” what paths may lead us there, and what strategies and technologies we may be able to use to create the futures we aspire to achieve.

WOMEN REACH PARITY—AS HIV/AIDS VICTIMS

Women now make up half of the 33 million people around the world who are living with HIV/AIDS, reports the Johns Hopkins University School of Nursing.

Young women in sub-Saharan Africa are dying of AIDS at three times the rate of males, and in the United States, young African American women are contracting HIV at higher rates than all other groups, according to researchers Jacquelyn Campbell and Nancy E. Glass.

One key factor in the increased vulnerability of these women is intimate-partner violence, which increases the risk of HIV transmission in rich and poor countries alike. “If you’re being beaten up and raped, it’s hard to negotiate for condom use by an HIV-infected partner,” Campbell observes.

SOURCE: Johns Hopkins University School of Nursing

CLICK OF THE MONTH: TRENDS IN JAPAN

http://web-japan.org/trends/

What’s cool in Japan right now? Well, maybe “cool” is no longer the correct word. Warm, cute, and cuddly things seem to be what’s captured the imaginations of Japanese consumers.

In addition to fashion, food, and travel articles, “Trends in Japan” features stories showing some general directions in technology, the environment, and society. Recent items include:

- A robot in the form of a cute plush-toy baby seal provides comfort for the elderly. The therapeutic robot, called Paro, includes a suite of sensors enabling it to respond to touch and to simple spoken greetings.

- A team of three young ladies were named “Ambassadors of Cuteness” to represent Japan’s vibrant pop culture abroad, promoting a move away from traditional imagery and toward that popularized by anime and manga art forms.

- A new online game called “Ichige” (Location Games) for smart-phone users; winners earn virtual currency based on how far they travel. The game has become popular among young workers and students with long daily commutes.

- A mobile water desalination unit called Courier Water to help alleviate growing water shortages in developing countries. The system also promises to help in areas struck by natural disasters.

NEWS FOR THE FUTURIST COMMUNITY

* THE BIOPOLITICS OF POPULAR CULTURE: The Institute for Ethics and Emerging Technology is sponsoring a one-day seminar on December 4 to explore the impacts of science fiction film, TV, and other popular media on shaping our perception of new technologies and our images of the future. Among the participants are futurist Jamais Cascio, author David Brin, science-fiction critic Annalee Newitz, and filmmakers Richard Kroehling, Michael Masucci, and Matthew Patrick. The seminar will be held at EON Reality in Irvine, California. DETAILS AND REGISTRATION:

* PATHWAYS TO A NEW FUTURE: An “intense, hands-on” workshop led by Don Beck and John Petersen will explore large-scale change and map the pathways to a future new world. Be prepared to “tackle some of the biggest questions related to transitioning to a new world.” The workshop, “Designing the Architecture of a Global Transition,” will be held December 11 and 12 at The Country Inn in Berkeley Springs, West Virginia. DETAILS:

* DIRTY ROTTEN STRATEGIES, a new book by Ian I. Mitroff and Abraham Silvers, shows you how to avoid solving the wrong problems and to detect when others, either organizations or individuals, may be leading you astray. Former U.S. Secretary of Labor Robert B. Reich describes the book as “a lucid and thoughtful account of why we fail to be adequately lucid and thoughtful—and what we can do about it." ORDER:

WHAT'S HOT @WFS.ORG

* 2020 VISIONARIES: The January-February 2010 issue of THE FUTURIST launches a special series of articles on “2020 Visionaries,” offering profiles and interviews of some of the world’s cutting-edge thinkers in a wide range of influential fields. First up are education and health care. The issue will be mailed to WFS members on November 30. JOIN or RENEW now to be sure you’ll receive your copy!

* PRIVACY VS. PERFECTIBILITY: The latest video on the WFS YouTube channel is an excerpt from bioethicist Arthur L. Caplan’s presentation at WorldFuture 2009. In this clip, Caplan explains that eliminating the right to privacy carried in Roe v. Wade could potentially allow government to mandate the use "designer baby" technologies. WATCH:

FUTURIST OF THE YEAR AWARDS: The World Future Society is now accepting nominations for outstanding futurist of the year. The Society is seeking candidates at both the professional and “young futurist” levels, whose work in the past year has advanced the understanding of foresight principles and techniques or demonstrated the successful application of foresight.

The deadline for nominations is December 31. Professional Members of the World Future Society will then be invited to vote on selected nominees, and a total of five finalists in each category will be submitted to the board of directors. The awards will be presented at WorldFuture 2010, the Society’s annual meeting in Boston.

For details or to submit a nomination, visit Futurist of the Year Awards

_____________________________________________________________

Feedback

1.18.2009

At first it seemed terrific that the online newsletter was designed to reach a younger, broader audience. Although I missed Future Survery, I thought the widely accessible content and a lighter tone were strategic means to draw new readers. But the latest issue plummets to an unacceptably low level.

The mocking "humor" of the so called Fashion Solution article cannot be justified on any grounds. The real story here is that women workers are standing up for themselves! They are insisting on work clothes that fit, not "fashionable" work clothes. Instead your writer adds a middle school twist: men's work clothes don't fit

women-- snicker, snicker; 13 year old boys may find this amusing, but not your audience. Worse is the repeated idea that more fashionable garments will attract more women (feather brains that they are) to the working professions. As if.

The story about HIV/AIDS now affecting equal numbers of men and women was even more appalling. "Achieving parity" indeed. What was your staff thinking?

Ideas for positive change pop up every day-- just follow the work of architect Eugene Tsui. Finland is full of promising IT ideas. Jane Jacobs' ideas are coming alive at last in neighborhoods everywhere.

The Ray Hurzweill-Bill Joy debates re the utopian and distopian potential of IT is always amusing and often intriguing. Surely you can find more worthy topics, and refrain from giving them a

Neanderthal-- OK, 1950's-- twist.

Sincerely,

Robin Standish

1.18.2009

I always look forward to a broad balance of topics with ideas and options on how to make them actionable.

Because I depend on your excellence, I have to say, this issue seemed below par, and light on “actionable”**.

I know the topics had validity, and the horrible outcomes also break my heart, but, if I were a Grinch, I could (overstatement for sake of illustration) say “Another Empty Global Warming Complaint” with no actionable path; then not One, but Two items on women being victims and complaining (Oh Pleazzzze – enough!!!) Don’t women select their own clothes??? Come on… Anything can be dramatized and anyone can be demonized. (Hey, men have complaints too – if they ever had a chance to get a word in…)

Please don’t become “just a political grinding mechanism”.

Now - Low-cost, portable water desalination (or purification) – we can save many lives there! (Trends in Japan)

Best Regards,

George

1.18.2009

JAPANESE ROBOT IS CUTE BUT OLD

"PARO" is history to roboticists. Heck, the late 1998 "My Real Baby" by Hasbro was more impressive, but, lacked the federal funding Japan awards any robotics.

John E. Fidler

johnfidler1 'at' hotmail.com

November 2009, Vol. 10, No. 11

In This Issue:
* Materialism in the Nonmaterial World
* Fire-Resistant Building Material
* Doctors’ Attitudes May Affect Obese Patients’ Health
* Click of the Month: Trends Map
* News for the Futurist Community
* What’s Hot @WFS.org: Futurist of the Year Nominations

MATERIALISM IN THE NONMATERIAL WORLD

How many customers have you served at your café on Facebook, and how many friends have gifted you fertilizer or plants on FarmVille? The growing movement of social activity in the virtual world includes a great deal of very real economic activity, report researchers at the Helsinki Institute for Information Technology.

While many futurists believe that the growth of virtual worlds would encourage movement away from consumption, materialism is apparently trumping nonmaterialism. As people spend more time online socializing, they are also spending real money, such as making micropurchases of heart or balloon icons to favor their friends, family, or celebrity idols.

The reason is simple: Humans behave as humans whether it is in the corporeal world or online, notes infotech researcher Vili Lehdonvirta. What we buy proclaims our identity and denotes our status, and we want to have status online just as we do in real life.

The advantage that consumption may have in the nonmaterial world is that it permits economic activity with reduced environmental impacts, says Lehdonvirta.

SOURCE: Helsinki Institute for Information Technology

FIRE-RESISTANT BUILDING MATERIAL

A newly developed building material that is fire-resistant and as versatile as concrete, yet does not explode at super-hot temperatures as concrete does, could offer future builders a very safe and flexible option.

Liquid Granite was created by scientists at Sheffield Hallam University in Great Britain and is available from Liquid Granite Ltd. The material includes between 30% and 70% recycled materials and uses less cement than traditional concrete products, thus reducing its carbon footprint.

Use of the new material may be especially promising in buildings at high risk for fires, such as power stations, and in commercial and residential buildings where it could give more time for evacuation, according to developers.

SOURCE: Sheffield Hallam University Centre of Infrastructure Management

DISCOVER NEW IDEAS, METHODS, AND TECHNOLOGIES IN BOSTON NEXT JULY!

Plans are under way for WorldFuture 2010: Sustainable Futures, Strategies, and Technologies, to be held in Boston, July 8-10, at the Westin Boston Waterfront Hotel.

Join a thousand forward-thinking men and women from around the world to discuss issues like the “other” health-care reform, with futurist Jay Herson, and collective intelligence, featuring Millennium Project participants such as Jerome C. Glenn, Theodore J. Gordon, Tikku Mohan, Frank Catanzaro, and Jack Park.

Other recently confirmed speakers include city-planning expert Anthony Flint; educator Gary Marx, president of the Center for Public Outreach; NetLab director Barry Wellman; and consulting futurist David Pearce Snyder. You’ll also hear inventors Ray Kurzweil and Stephen Thaler, health futurist Kevin Fickenscher, and media experts Michael Rogers, Lee Rainie, and Michael R. Nelson.

Panel sessions, workshops, and stimulating keynote presentations will focus on what we mean by “sustainable futures,” what paths may lead us there, and what strategies and technologies we may be able to use to create the futures we aspire to achieve.

DOCTORS' ATTITUDES MAY AFFECT OBESE PATIENTS' HEALTH

Obesity carries its own health risks, but doctors' negative attitudes toward their obese patients may be making matters worse, according to a study by Mary Margaret Huizinga, an assistant professor of general internal medicine at Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine.

Huizinga's study found that, with each 10-point increase in patients' body-mass index, the prevalence of doctors' low opinion increased by 14%. Huizinga also observed the effects of this negative bias firsthand in her work at an obesity clinic: "By the end of the visit [my patients] would be in tears, saying 'no other physician talked with me like this before. No one listened to me,'” she reports.

Other studies have shown that doctors who respect their patients tend to provide more information, and that patients who do not feel respected tend to avoid seeking doctors' advice. Huizinga believes the next step in research is to discover how physician attitudes affect obese patient outcomes, and then to incorporate the awareness of that bias into the medical school curriculum.

SOURCE: Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine

CLICK OF THE MONTH: TRENDS MAP

http://trendsmap.com

Trends Map offers a real-time visual state-of-the-world report on the hot topics being posted on Twitter.

What is the world tweeting about right now? On one day in early October, Manila was talking about “Typhoon Parma,” and Winnipeg was into all things “artificial”: artificial life, artificial organs, etc. Americans on the east coast were saying good morning to the world and talking about reality star Kim Kardashian.

Trends Map is “a little Web startup workshop operating out of Melbourne, Australia,” and owned by Stateless Systems.

The immediate “futures” application of real-time Twitter trends is not yet clear, but consulting futurist Jennifer Jarratt suggests that tracking key words around the globe “might create a map of regional concerns,” and then futurists could track those trends over time.

NEWS FOR THE FUTURIST COMMUNITY

* INNOVATION AWARD FOR KURZWEIL: WorldFuture 2010 speaker Ray Kurzweil has been selected by The Economist magazine to receive the 2009 Economist Innovation Award in the category of Computing and Telecommunication. The citation honors Kurzweil for his optical character recognition and speech recognition technologies. The awards, described as the “Oscars of Innovation,” celebrate individual innovators whose work has had the greatest impact on business and/or society. DETAILS

* SMART GLOBALIZATION REPORT: The Institute for Alternative Futures has released a new report advocating increased emphasis on creating opportunities for the world’s poor and underdeveloped communities. Government, industry, and development foresight activities rarely take into account how social, technological, and environmental trends affect the poor, says IAF Chairman Clement Bezold. “We believe that the application of pro-poor foresight for envisioning the future of human development is crucial for ensuring long-term prosperity and sustainability,” says Bezold. “It is also the right thing to do.” DETAILS

* KEEPING UP WITH FUTURES STUDIES: Enrollment has increased at the University of Houston’s graduate program in futures studies, and the program has added more ways for current students and alumni to stay connected. In addition to a monthly newsletter from program coordinator Peter Bishop are a community timeline added to the Houston Futures site and a program activities timeline and map here:

WHAT'S HOT @WFS.ORG

FUTURIST OF THE YEAR AWARDS: The World Future Society is now accepting nominations for outstanding futurist of the year. The Society is seeking candidates at both the professional and “young futurist” levels, whose work in the past year has advanced the understanding of foresight principles and techniques or demonstrated the successful application of foresight.

The deadline for nominations is December 31. Professional Members of the World Future Society will then be invited to vote on selected nominees, and a total of five finalists in each category will be submitted to the board of directors. The awards will be presented at WorldFuture 2010, the Society’s annual meeting in Boston.

For details or to submit a nomination, visit Futurist of the Year Awards

October 2009, Vol. 10, No. 10

In This Issue:
* Early Spring Warning: Blooms Too Soon?
* Artificial Intelligence Aids Diagnosis
* Denmark Offers Educational “Green” Vacations
* Click of the Month: Futurity
* News for the Futurist Community
* What's Hot @WFS.ORG

EARLY SPRING WARNING: BLOOMS TOO SOON?

By 2080, some of the world's flowers could be blooming as much as two months earlier than they do today, warn researchers studying data from the Royal Botanic Garden in Edinburgh. The earlier blooming would throw other plant and animal life out of synch.

Plants adjust the timing of flowering to adapt to changes in local climate; for every 1 degree Celsius change in climate, blossoming may begin 11 days earlier, according to mathematician Robert Clark of Monash University in Australia and geoscientist Roy Thompson of the University of Edinburgh.

Recent climate-change models foresee a median rise of 5.2 degrees in the earth’s surface temperature--double the warming rate projected just six years ago. This would lead to dramatic desynchronization between the early bloomers and other less-quickly changing species, the researchers predict.

SOURCE: “Predicting the Impact of Global Warming on the Timing of Spring Flowering” by Robert Clark and Roy Thompson, INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, Wiley-Blackwell, 2009. DOl 10.1002/JOC.2004. Web site

ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE AIDS DIAGNOSIS

Mayo Clinic researchers have developed an artificial-intelligence program that could help reduce invasive diagnostic testing on patients suspected of having cardiac infections.

The software is an artificial neural network that responds to unique situations based on accumulated knowledge, just as doctors do.

The program underwent three separate trainings to learn how to evaluate symptoms of endocarditis--infection of the heart's valves and chambers. Diagnosis typically involves an invasive and risky procedure, with a probe inserted into the patient's esophagus.

The program was tested retrospectively on known cases, and made correct diagnoses "most of the time," with 99% confidence levels, the researchers report.

SOURCE: Mayo Clinic

FUTURISTS WILL MEET IN BOSTON NEXT JULY!

Plans are under way for the World Future Society’s 2010 conference in Boston, to be held July 8-10 at the Westin Boston Waterfront Hotel. The theme will be Sustainable Futures, Strategies, and Technologies.

Among the estimated 150 speakers will be inventors Ray Kurzweil and Stephen Thaler, health futurist Kevin Fickenscher, public affairs specialist Anthony Flint, and media experts Janna Quitney Anderson, Michael Rogers, Lee Rainie, and Michael R. Nelson.

Panel sessions, workshops, and stimulating keynote presentations will focus on what we mean by “sustainable futures,” what paths may lead us there, and what strategies and technologies we may be able to use to create the futures we aspire to achieve.

DENMARK OFFERS EDUCATIONAL “GREEN” VACATIONS

Denmark, which will host the UN Climate Change conference in December, has established an EnergyTours Network so visiting politicians, business leaders, and facilities managers can take an educational tour of the country's innovative sustainability programs.

The Danes have been among the world's pioneers in energy projects, with 15.5% of the country's gross electricity consumption met by renewable sources. Danish cities are also bicycle-friendly, and "green consciousness" has largely been integrated into daily life.

The EnergyTours program aims to help give international policy makers "a behind-the-scenes look at how Denmark does green." Visits include wave-machine installations, municipal buildings designed for low carbon emissions, and a region where 70,000 people receive electricity entirely from renewable sources.

SOURCES: EnergyTours Network

CLICK OF THE MONTH: FUTURITY

www.futurity.org

Duke University researchers mapped a baby’s retina for signs of blindness. Iowa State University scientists found a way to breed a better cow from the embryo up. And Emory University researchers observing chimpanzee behavior gained a better understanding of empathy, suggesting new therapeutic approaches for children with autism.

These are among the latest breakthroughs reported on Futurity, a new site offering one-stop shopping for scientific news emerging from U.S. and Canadian colleges and universities. Futurity is the result of a partnership of more than 35 institutions aiming to disseminate news about science, engineering, environmental issues, health breakthroughs, and more.

As mainstream news media struggle for revenue and readership, reporting on science news and research has diminished in recent years. Research institutes and universities have adapted to the new media environment by increasingly using iTunes and YouTube, for instance, to get their information out to the public.

Futurity is “ad-free and agenda-free,” according to co-founder Lisa Lapin, assistant vice president for communications at Stanford University, but the site will also expand its reach by partnering with major commercial portals such as Yahoo News.

THE WORLD FUTURE SOCIETY NEEDS YOUR SUPPORT

The World Future Society has launched several exciting projects in recent years, including a Global Youth Foresight Program, a revamped Professional Membership program with its new journal WORLD FUTURE REVIEW, and a variety of multimedia and outreach programs under development.

Trends in the global economy have taken their toll on nonprofit organizations like the Society, so we need your help to sustain our current work and pursue our long-term goals of providing the methodologies, the networks, the information, and the inspiration to help all people build a better future for themselves, their businesses, and their descendants.

Donations to the World Future Society are tax deductible on U.S. tax returns. Please consider a generous donation now!

SUPPORT THE SOCIETY: Contributors donating $50 or more will receive a complimentary WFS tote bag!

GOODSHOP FOR WFS

NEWS FOR THE FUTURIST COMMUNITY

THE SINGULARITY SUMMIT 2009—THINKING ABOUT THINKING: The Singularity Summit will be held October 3-4, 2009, at the 92nd Street Y, 1395 Lexington Avenue, New York, New York.

The Summit is an annual event to further understanding and discussion about the Singularity concept and the future of human technological progress. It was founded in 2006 as a venue for leading thinkers—whether scientist, enthusiast, or skeptic—to explore the subject.

Speakers at this year's summit include PayPal founder Peter Thiel, longevity author Aubrey de Grey, and inventor and futurist Ray Kurzweil, among others. Register at http://www.singularitysummit.com/

READ THE FUTURIST’s exclusive interview with Singularity Institute President Michael Vassar:

The World Future Society is a media partner for the Singularity Summit.

* UNDERSTANDING THE TRANSFORMATION: The fifth European Futurists Conference will be held October 14-16 in Lucerne, Switzerland. The meeting, “Visioning 20.20--Escaping the Age of Stupid: Necessary Transformation Beyond the Turmoil,” aims to bring civilization out of its worst crisis since the Great Depression.

DETAILS

* DESIGN FOR LIFE: DesignBoost 2009 will be held October 14 through November 15 in Malm, Sweden, offering exhibitions and lectures open to the public, plus workshops for architects, designers, and others working toward creating more-sustainable human habitats—and better future lives for all. DETAILS

* NEW DIMENSIONS OF CONSUMER LIFE: Social Technologies’ upcoming Futures Consortium meeting (November 9-10 in Washington, D.C.) “will explore emerging consumer need states and bring insights to life via archetypal personas.” What do businesses need to know about the values and needs of their customers as the economy and society change? CONTACT Don Abraham or Chris Carbone

* RICHARD S. KIRBY (1949-2009): The World Future Society was saddened to learn of the recent death of a great friend and supporter. Richard Kirby was a frequent speaker at WFS conferences and a contributor to its publications. His unique perspective united spirituality and prospective thinking, offering an optimistic yet realistic worldview. He died on September 24 at his home in Seattle; he will be greatly missed. DETAILS World Network of Religious Futurists

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WHAT'S HOT @WFS.ORG

* FUTURIST senior editor Patrick Tucker was a big hit on “CBS Sunday Morning” on its 30th anniversary program September 6. He assured CBS correspondent Tracy Smith that the future will be okay without flying cars and jet packs. WATCH

Episode Recap

* 3-FOR-2 FALL SALE! The World Future Society has announced a special membership deal for both Regular Membership and Professional Membership: Join (or renew) at the regular price for two years and get your third year free! Plan ahead, save money, and never miss a single issue of THE FUTURIST (or WORLD FUTURE REVIEW for Professionals). This special offer expires on October 16. ACT NOW

* OUTLOOK 2010, living in the postliterate age, climate change and the information "haves" versus "have nots," and why we may turn to nuclear energy: These stories plus World Trends & Forecasts, Tomorrow in Brief, book reviews, and more are in the November-December 2009 issue of THE FUTURIST. JOIN NOW or renew your membership in the World Future Society so you won't miss a thing!

September 2009, Vol. 10, No. 9

In This Issue:
* Healthy Sex Life Improves Career Prospects
* Online Textbook Lightens Backpacks
* Life Expectancy Increases in U.S.
* Click of the Month: Live Ethical Quote
* News for the Futurist Community
* What's Hot @WFS.ORG: Back from the Future

HEALTHY SEX LIFE IMPROVES CAREER PROSPECTS

Times may be tough, but anthropologist and Chemistry.com founder Helen Fisher has found a bright side: Work on your sex life, and you may improve your career prospects.

Sexual activity increases the rush of dopamine in the brain, which also contributes to enhanced creativity and problem solving, Fisher explains.

Other beneficial chemicals boosted by sex include oxytocin and vasopressin, which generate feelings of trust and attachment—the perfect prescription for better team work. And of course there's testosterone, which improves self-confidence in both men and women. In higher doses, it stimulates competitiveness and, hence, productivity.

SOURCE: Helen Fisher, Chemistry.com

ONLINE TEXTBOOK LIGHTENS BACKPACKS

As students head back to school this fall, California will become the first state to offer free, open-source, online textbooks for high-school students.

One of the first texts approved for the program is Advanced Algebra II by Raleigh, North Carolina, math teacher Kenny Felder and submitted through Rice University's open-education program, Connexions.

The move toward free online curricula could be a boon for states facing severe budget restrictions—and for students facing textbook overload in their backpacks.

"Everyone is looking to cut costs over the next couple of years, but the real beauty of open-educational resources like Kenny Felder's book is that they provide the foundation for a step-change in the quality of education in the United States," says Connexions executive director Joel Thierstein.

SOURCE: Connexions View results of The Free Digital Textbook Initiative

FUTURISTS WILL MEET IN BOSTON NEXT JULY!

Plans are under way for the World Future Society’s 2010 conference in Boston, to be held July 8-10 at the Westin Boston Waterfront Hotel.

Panel sessions, workshops, and stimulating keynote presentations will focus on what we mean by “sustainable futures,” what paths may lead us there, and what strategies and technologies we may be able to use to create the futures we aspire to achieve.

Join a thousand forward thinkers from around the world to learn from an estimated 150 speakers, like inventors Ray Kurzweil and Stephen Thaler, health futurist Kevin Fickenscher, and media experts Michael Rogers, Lee Rainie, and Michael R. Nelson.

LIFE EXPECTANCY INCREASES IN U.S.

Both life expectancy and the mortality rate have made records in the United States, reports the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

Men and women are living longer than ever (75.3 years and 80.4 years respectively), and the age-adjusted death rate dropped to a record low of 760.3 deaths per 100,000 population, according to the latest report from CDC's National Center for Health Statistics, "Deaths: Preliminary Data for 2007."

Another record: For the first time, life expectancy for black males reached 70 years, according to the report. The gap between white and black males (5.3 years) is now nearly equal to the gap between males and females (5.1 years).

Heart disease and cancer remain the top two causes of death, accounting for 48.5% of U.S. mortality. Deaths from HIV/AIDS experienced the biggest one-year decline (10%) since 1998.

SOURCE: CDC

CLICK OF THE MONTH: LIVE ETHICAL QUOTE

www.covalence.ch/index.php/products/services/live-ethicalquote/

How ethical is the company that wants to do business with you, or that you want to buy products from? Searching the Internet for clues about a company's reputation can lead to spotty or misleading information.

With its Live EthicalQuote feature, research consultant group Covalence offers a scorecard based on thousands of news stories—good, bad, and ugly—about more than 500 companies in 18 sectors. The quotes are updated daily based on evaluations by an international team of ethical analysts.

Note that the free public version does not include information from the last 12 months. Up-to-the-moment quotes are available only to Covalence clients and subscribers.

NEWS FOR THE FUTURIST COMMUNITY

THE SINGULARITY SUMMIT 2009—THINKING ABOUT THINKING: The Singularity Summit will be held October 3-4, 2009, at the 92nd Street Y, 1395 Lexington Avenue, New York, New York.

The Summit is an annual event to further understanding and discussion about the Singularity concept and the future of human technological progress. It was founded in 2006 as a venue for leading thinkers—whether scientist, enthusiast, or skeptic—to explore the subject.

Speakers at this year's summit include PayPal founder Peter Thiel, longevity author Aubrey de Grey, and inventor and futurist Ray Kurzweil, among others. Register at http://www.singularitysummit.com/

The World Future Society is a proud media partner for the Singularity Summit.

* PREVIEW WEEKEND FOR STRATEGIC FORESIGHT: Considering a degree in strategic foresight? Regent University in Virginia Beach, Virginia, is offering a preview weekend November 11-14. Tour the campus and learn about the undergraduate and graduate degree programs that will prepare you for a career as a professional futurist. DETAILS or contact @drjaygary on Twitter.

* WEB 2.0 AS DISTANCE LEARNING’S “GREEN SOLUTION”: Youngstown State University’s second annual Distance Education Conference, to be held Friday, October 16, in Youngstown, Ohio, will focus on how Web 2.0 and other technologies are changing distance education. Invited guest speaker is Ohio Vice Chancellor Barbara Gellman-Danley. DETAILS, or in Second Life.

****************************************************

WHAT'S HOT @WFS.ORG

* WFS PRESIDENT ON TECH TUESDAY WEBINAR: Tim Mack speaks on the Strategic Value of Foresight for Business in the August 25 episode of FIATECH’s Tech Tuesday Webinar series. DETAILS

* TWEETS TO PONDER: A few interesting questions have recently landed in World Future Society’s Twitter feeds:

@davidhodgson (via @ken_homer) Question: How will your great-grandchildren assess your effectiveness in passing on a healthy world to them?

@maxmarmer Do you think there is a correlation btwn being an entrepreneur and being athletic at a young age? Seems like mindset/skillset transfer

@mennovandoorn Should companies start their real life soap and broadcast to become authentic and transparent?

@gleonhard More comments on the debate about the new Altnet/Kazaa p2p system - back to the stone ages of digital content? http://ow.ly/kZjV

Join in the conversations at http://twitter.com/WorldFutureSoc (WFS and futurist community news) and http://twitter.com/Theyear2030 (news tips from The Futurist magazine).

August 2009, Vol. 10, No. 8

In This Issue...
* Skills Gap Is Widening
* The End May Be Near for Big Tobacco
* The Millennium Project’s Latest Projects
* Click of the Month: The World Mind Network
* News for the Futurist Community
* What's Hot @WFS.ORG: Back from the Future

SKILLS GAP IS WIDENING

Since the global recession has forced many employers to cut costs—including labor costs—one area may need a resurgence of investment: training.

U.S. employers continue to struggle with finding new hires who have not just the basic skills, but also higher-level critical thinking and creativity skills, according to a new report from The Conference Board. Since the education system is not supplying young workers with these skills, companies may have to devote more of their own resources to bringing workers up to their required skill levels.

Some options include providing internships and working more closely with community colleges. The goal should be to prepare workers before they go out into the job market.

"It is a losing strategy for employers to try to fill the workforce readiness gap on the job. They need to be involved much sooner to prepare new employees to succeed," according to Donna Klein of Corporate Voices for Working Families, which worked with The Conference Board on the report.

SOURCE: The Conference Board
http://www.conference-board.org/utilities/pressDetail.cfm?press_ID=3693

EDITOR'S NOTE: For more on future jobs and the talent shortage, see the September-October 2009 issue of THE FUTURIST featuring John Challenger, Edward Gordon, and Alexandra Levit.

THE END MAY BE NEAR FOR BIG TOBACCO

The recent move by the Obama administration to put tobacco regulation under the jurisdiction of the Food and Drug Administration was hailed by leading tobacco experts as another step forward in the 100-year march toward eradicating tobacco consumption in the United States.

Tobacco use has declined from 42% of the U.S. adult population in 1965 to 20% in 2007, thanks to taxation, restrictions on advertising, and warning labels, according to researchers Michael Fiore and Timothy Baker of the University of Wisconsin–Madison.

To accelerate this trend, the researchers urge regulators to increase excise taxes on tobacco, eliminate nicotine in all tobacco products, ban all cigarette advertising (including sponsorships and other promotional activities), and provide counseling and medication for every smoker who wants to quit.

“The progress made in reducing tobacco use over the last 50 years should in no way temper our commitment to further reductions," says Fiore. "If appropriate steps are taken, a tobacco-free nation can be achieved within a few decades.”

SOURCES: University of Wisconsin–Madison
http://www.news.wisc.edu/releases/15373

“Stealing a March in the 21st Century” by Michael C. Fiore and Timothy B. Baker, AMERICAN JOURNAL OF PUBLIC HEALTH (June 2009)
http://www.ajph.org/cgi/content/abstract/99/7/1170

FDA and Tobacco Regulation
http://www.fda.gov/TobaccoProducts/GuidanceComplianceRegulatoryInformati...

HOW TO INCREASE YOUR FUTURES KNOWLEDGE BY 600%

If you're reading FUTURIST UPDATE only, you're not benefiting from the valuable trends, forecasts, perspectives, insights, assessments, reviews, interviews, and overviews found in THE FUTURIST magazine, the principal benefit of World Future Society membership.

For just $59 per year ($20 for students), you'll increase your futures knowledge by 600% (360 pages a year of THE FUTURIST versus 60 pages of UPDATE).

Learn more about THE FUTURIST and WFS membership programs and benefits at http://www.wfs.org/member.htm

MILLENNIUM PROJECT'S LATEST PROJECTS

The Millennium Project's annual STATE OF THE FUTURE report this year brings added excitement to our field, as it is joined by the release of the newest version of the comprehensive FUTURES RESEARCH METHODOLOGY CD-ROM.

FRM Version 3.0 is a 1,300-page collection of peer-reviewed chapters fully describing the most important tools that should be in every futurist's kit, including Delphi polling, trend-impact analysis, scenarios, scenario planning, "robust" decision making, "genius" forecasting, and more.

2009 STATE OF THE FUTURE comprises a 100-page paperback serving as an executive summary and a CD-ROM containing some 6,700 pages of research, offering the most comprehensive look at the challenges and opportunities we now face.

Both of these valuable publications bring futures researchers the most up-to-date, comprehensive, and authoritative information available on not just where we are going, but how we will get there.

The Millennium Project
http://www.millennium-project.org/

CLICK OF THE MONTH: THE WORLD MIND NETWORK

http://theworldmindnetwork.net

Lest you still think social networking on the Web is a waste of your time, here is an opportunity to deploy the real world-changing tools of the likes of Facebook, Twitter, and Skype.

Among the projects established by World Mind Network members are a forum for improving science education co-moderated by Nobel laureate Peter Doherty (1996, Physiology or Medicine) and an interactive blog on the world economic crisis co-hosted by another Nobelist, Edmund Phelps (2006, Economics).

Music and literature also offer ripe opportunities for social networking on the site, including poetry challenges to fit the 140-character limitations of Twitter (though I confess I thought I'd never see a tweet as lovely as a tree.)

* BRAZIL HOSTS CONFERENCE ON INNOVATION MANAGEMENT: The VI ICIM 2009—International Conference on Innovation Management will be held December 8–10 in São Paulo. The focus will be on the issues, challenges and opportunities of adopting sustainable development and its systemic approach. Speakers include such prominent international futurists and thinkers as Hazel Henderson, Jerome C. Glenn, David Harries, Paul Werbos, Zhouying Jin, and many others. Deadline for submitting papers is August 31.
DETAILS: http://www.pucsp.br/icim/

Prof. Dr. Arnoldo de Hoyos, arnoldodehoyos@yahoo.com.br.

* SYMPOSIUM ON THE FUTURE: The New Media Consortium (NMC) will host a virtual Symposium for the Future, a live online event, October 27–29, 2009. Keynote speakers Gardner Campbell of Baylor University; Beth Kanter, social media activist; invited speaker Anne Haywood, NMC program consultant to the National Geographic Society; and colleagues from around the world will explore the emerging shape of education over the next five years and beyond. DETAILS and REGISTRATION: http://www.nmc.org/2009-future-symposium

* HOUSTON'S FUTURES EDUCATION PROGRAM GROWS: The successful transition of University of Houston's futures program to the central campus has resulted in growth. This fall, program director Peter Bishop will be joined by economist Kay Strong, now a futurist by training. She will work to infuse futures thinking into the undergraduate curriculum building toward a UH minor in futures studies. Strong will continue working with teachers in Houston area schools to help futurize their courses. DETAILS: http://houstonfutures.wetpaint.com/

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What"s Hot @WFS.ORG

WorldFuture 2009, the Society's conference in Chicago (July 17–19), is now history, but we hope participants left with many stimulating new ideas and energy for a variety of projects ahead.

* Opening the conference was GROWN UP DIGITAL author Don Tapscott, who outlined the many changes that our institutions need to make to enable the "Net generation" to succeed. "We do everything the opposite," he said, such as taking away all the collaborative tools that young people use to augment their learning processes. "Give them a license to self-organize.... Give them the feedback they need and want to get better." View excerpt from Tapscott's presentation. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aNWrBns_KRA

* Bioethicist Arthur Caplan explained why the abortion debate will be supplanted by new debates over whether to use genetic technologies to enhance our children. He warned that those urging the overturning of Roe v. Wade would theoretically be allowing government in the future to mandate that parents use technologies to perfect their children, throwing out the right to have imperfect children along with their right to privacy. Caplan is co-editor of THE PENN CENTER GUIDE TO BIOETHICS (Springer, 2009). Order from Amazon. http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/0826115225/thefuturistbooks

* In what many attendees called the meeting's scariest presentation, law professor Barry Kellman detailed the imminent threat of bioviolence: conflicts fought with new weapons that "have the capacity to do far more damage than nuclear weapons." Viruses such as smallpox, polio, or the measles could be synthesized or genetically manipulated to be impervious to vaccines and released intentionally into the public. Kellman argued for a global covenant among scientists to prevent this scenario.

* Workplace futurist John A. Challenger noted that many of our concerns today, such as labor shortages, immigration, retirement, and globalization, are not new trends, but the recession has put them in a new context. For instance, when baby boomers saw their retirement savings disappear, many stayed in the workforce and thus helped alleviate labor shortages. The three big areas of future job growth, he said, are health care, energy, and global business. See his article, along with that of fellow conference speaker Edward Gordon, in the September-October 2009 FUTURIST. View an excerpt of Challenger's presentation. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2E9ZtzqVWkY

* An experiment in live reporting during the conference via Twitter attracted several participants, who offered their immediate impressions of various sessions and links to longer reports on their own Web sites. Surf the tweets and re-tweets at www.twitter.com/worldfuturesoc

July 2009 Vol. 10, No. 7

In This Issue...

* Making Disasters Less Disastrous
* Earth Science Literacy
* Rapid Virus Detection
* Click of the Month: Engineer Your Life
* News for the Futurist Community
* What’s Hot @WFS.ORG

MAKING DISASTERS LESS DISASTROUS

The UN International Strategy for Disaster Reduction has called on governments and regional organizations around the world to invest in the means necessary to reduce natural-disaster-related deaths by one-half by 2015.

Measures recommended for meeting these death-reduction goals, as well as reducing economic losses, include:

* By 2010, earmark at least 10% of humanitarian and reconstruction funding to disaster-risk-reduction programs.

* By 2011, evaluate schools and hospitals for structural soundness; by 2015, have firm action plans for safer schools in disaster-prone countries.

* By 2015, use building and land-use codes to enforce disaster-risk-reduction measures in all major cities in disaster-prone areas.

The critical factor will be funding the necessary investments. "Put bluntly, many countries must dedicate more funds from national budgets—or suffer the consequences," according to John Holmes, UN under-secretary-general for humanitarian affairs.

SOURCE: International Strategy for Disaster Reduction
http://www.unisdr.org/

EARTH SCIENCE LITERACY

Climate change, resource depletion, and other trends in the earth's systems will dramatically affect all our futures, so it is increasingly imperative that citizens understand what's going on and what we can do about it. The National Science Foundation's Division of Earth Sciences has thus launched a new initiative to promote literacy in the geosciences.

"It's important that every citizen have knowledge of the fundamental concepts of Earth science such that he or she may make informed and responsible decisions about public issues—from climate change to energy, from natural resources to earthquake hazards," says director Robert Detrick. "The Earth Science Literacy Initiative is a very important effort to convey this information about Earth science to the general public."

DETAILS: Earth Science Literacy Initiative
http://www.earthscienceliteracy.org/

RAPID VIRUS DETECTION

It's easy enough to avoid people who are obviously sick, but what if they've just been infected and aren't showing symptoms yet? An infection could spread and endanger many before anyone's been diagnosed.

A portable, ultrasensitive virus detector could perceive a virus within just five minutes, using samples of an individual's saliva, blood, or other body fluid. The device, under development at the University of Twente in the Netherlands, contains an array of receptors such as antibodies that will bind to microorganisms in the sample, thus creating a detectable interference pattern, like a fingerprint.

The ability to detect viruses almost instantly in clinics or other places without access to laboratories and trained personnel could be a boon to preventing future epidemics. The device can also detect bacteria, proteins, and DNA molecules. The university's spin-off company, Ostendum, plans to introduce the first detector to market in late 2010.

SOURCE: University of Twente
http://www.utwente.nl/

CLICK OF THE MONTH: ENGINEER YOUR LIFE

http://www.engineeryourlife.org/

"Imagine what life would be like without pollution controls to preserve the environment, life-saving medical equipment, or low-cost building materials for fighting global poverty. All this takes engineering," states the National Academy of Engineering's Web site for high-school girls and the adults in their lives.

Engineering is vital to problem solving and, as a career, offers an opportunity to make a real difference in the world. Using stories of real women and student peers engaging in these activities, the program encourages more young women to enter the field in all its varieties, such as civil, aeronautic, biomedical, environmental, industrial, and computer engineering.

Resources for counselors, teachers, parents, and adult engineers are also available at the site.

"In very real and concrete ways, women that become engineers save lives, prevent disease, reduce poverty, and protect our planet," it states. "Dream Big. Love what you do. Become an engineer."

BONUS CLICK: http://www.engineergirl.org for middle-school girls.

NEWS FOR THE FUTURIST COMMUNITY

* FUTURUM: The abstract database of futures research has now been published. Futurum presents abstracts of the most essential and important international futures research and foresight journals. The database does not include complete articles, but users are provided with the complete publishing information and availability data. Futurum is a project of the Finland Futures Research Centre, Turku School of Economics, in Turku, Finland. FREE trial access for one week: Send contact information at http://www.futurumdatabase.com. Further details (PDF).

* MILLENNIUM PROJECT IN CHINA: Futurist Jerome C. Glenn, director of the Millennium Project, returned recently from a trip to China, where he addressed the Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, the Chinese Academy of Sciences, and the Ecological Society of China. Glenn offered each group updates to the annual State of the Future report, as well as Futures Research Methodology Version 3.0. He also schooled the Beijing Academy of Science and Technology on the role that conscious technology could play in ensuring the success of China's EcoCities initiatives. DETAILS http://www.millennium-project.org/

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* STUDENT ESSAY CONTEST WINNERS! WFS President Tim Mack has announced the winners of the Society's 2009 essay competition:

- First place, Samantha Palmer (Paul D. Schreiber High School, Port Washington, New York), "Into the Future: A Glimpse of Medical Technology."

- Second place, Jenna Leigh Chiemi Kagimoto (Hawaii Baptist Academy, Honolulu, Hawaii), "In Pursuit of Perfection."

- Third place, Maya Chandrasekaran (Upper St. Clair High School, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania), "Trends in the Global and American Economy."

Congratulations to the winners, and many thanks to all of the participants and evaluators! Look for more details soon at www.wfs.org .

* "FUTURING" ON KINDLE: FUTURING: The Exploration of the Future, is now available on Amazon.com's e-book platform, Kindle. WFS founder Edward Cornish's comprehensive guide to the futures field has been described as a "masterpiece" by Earth Policy Institute president Lester R. Brown and "splendid" by Megatrends author John Naisbitt. More than 2,000 students per year use FUTURING as a primary text at more than 20 colleges and universities. ORDER the Kindle edition

www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/0930242610/thefuturistbooks

* TWITTERS FROM THE FUTURIST: Hey there! Theyear2030 is using Twitter. Twitter is a free service that lets you keep in touch with people through the exchange of quick, frequent answers to one simple question: What are you doing? Follow Theyear2030 at THE FUTURIST's page, www.wfs.org/futurist.htm , or follow by joining Twitter today. Go to http://twitter.com/Theyear2030

* WHAT TO CALL THE 2010s DECADE: What will we call the decade coming up, 2010-2019? Will it be the "twenty-tens," "twenty-teens," "two-thousand tens," or something else? What about 2010 through 2012, which aren't "teen" years? Should we call them the "twenty-tweens"? Send your ideas to FUTURIST UPDATE editor Cindy Wagner, mailto:cwagner@wfs.org . And by the way, we still don't know what to call the decade of 2000-2009. Any suggestions?

June 2009, Vol. 10, No. 6

In This Issue:

* Top 10 Long-Term Challenges
* Avatars That Look Like Us
* Bright Prospects for Blue-Collar Careers
* Living With Purpose
* Click of the Month: Chicago 2016
* What’s Hot @WFS.ORG

TOP 10 LONG-TERM CHALLENGES

Today’s number-one challenge—and opportunity—is to develop a long-term solution for our energy needs, business strategist Peter Schwartz told the 2009 graduating class of Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute. “That means it must be nonpolluting and inexhaustible,” he said.

A peaceful and prosperous world in 2050 is possible, but getting there will require “monumental innovation, collaboration, and leadership,” Schwartz said. The top challenges Schwartz outlined are:

1. Creating long-term solutions to meet our energy demands sustainably.

2. Launching a bio-industrial revolution with sustainable manufacturing.

3. Understanding and enhancing the human brain to avert age-related impairments.

4. Improving agriculture to reduce costs and increase its energy and water efficiency.

5. Building sustainable cities through better urban planning and “smart architecture.”

6. Stimulating job growth and economic development.

7. Fusing the technological with the spiritual and aesthetic dimensions of human culture.

8. Advancing technological instruments to drive scientific discovery forward.

9. Harnessing biological tools to advance human evolution.

10. Discovering new ways to lower the costs and environmental impact of space flight and development.

DETAILS: Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute
http://news.rpi.edu/update.do?artcenterkey=2585

Avatars That Look Like Us

Many of us have long wanted to send out a stunt double to do our dirty work, or clone ourselves so we could be in two places at once. In cyberspace, avatars can serve these purposes, but the typical, manga-inspired cartoon avatars don’t look, talk, or behave much like us.

Now, thanks to improved artificial intelligence, natural language programming, and computer rendering, more lifelike avatars are on the way.

Project LifeLike, a consortium of university computer researchers funded by the National Science Foundation, aims to create visualizations that are specific to an individual, and combine those visualizations with sophisticated artificial intelligence that could also replicate that individual’s responses.

Since much communication is nonverbal, the avatars are also tutored in body language and subtle gestures. Another goal is to enable the avatars to remember and learn from their experiences with live users, thus improving their lifelike communication capabilities.

Potential applications include “recreating” historical figures so that schoolchildren can directly interact with them, making virtual counselors or doctors available when a patient is in crisis, or letting job seekers hone their interviewing skills before confronting that critical face-to-face session.

SOURCE: National Science Foundation
http://www.nsf.gov/news/news_summ.jsp?cntn_id=114828

VIDEO with Project LifeLike leaders Avelino Gonzalez and Jason Leigh
http://www.nsf.gov/news/news_videos.jsp?cntn_id=114828&media_id=65131&or...

Read Patrick Tucker's original 2007 article on Leigh's lab.
http://www.wfs.org/trendja07.htm

BRIGHT PROSPECTS FOR BLUE-COLLAR CAREERS

The voices of reason (like our parents) have long proclaimed that a college education is the only (or the best) key to future success. That may no longer be true, suggests millionaire landscaper Joe Lamacchia, author of BLUE COLLAR AND PROUD OF IT.

Academia does not suit every temperament, and many industries require different skills than those that one can obtain in a lecture hall, library, or lab. The good news for more hands-on learners and workers is that more jobs are opening for those without a bachelor’s degree.

In the United States, more investment in repairing crumbling infrastructures will create growing demand for skilled trade workers, argues Lamacchia. Especially compelling will be the so-called “green-collar” work in environmentally conscious industries such as hybrid car manufacturing, green construction, organic farming, sustainable fishing, and eco-friendly landscaping.

SOURCE: BLUE COLLAR AND PROUD OF IT by Joe Lamacchia (HCI, 2009) http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/0757307787/thefuturistbooks

LIVING LIFE WITH PURPOSE

Many people today feel “caught between the ‘Dow’ and the ‘Tao,’” and seek a more purposeful way of living life in uncertain times, says Ken Dychtwald, founder of Age Wave.

In his new book WITH PURPOSE: Going from Success to Significance in Work and Life, co-written with Daniel J. Kadlec, Dychtwald has attempted to provide guidance for individuals rethinking their priorities in the midst of unanticipated external pressures. What is the meaning of success? How do we use and strengthen our key life-nurturing relationships? And what about retirement?

“In these horrible/wonderful times, I’m hopeful that WITH PURPOSE might give you a new and uplifting perspective,” says Dychtwald.

DETAILS: Age Wave
http://www.agewave.com/

CLICK OF THE MONTH: CHICAGO 2016
http://www.chicago2016.org/our-plan/proposed-venues.aspx

Chicago is not only hosting the World Future Society’s 2009 meeting, but it is also a candidate city for the 2016 Summer Olympics. The city is devoting great energy and creativity to preparing for the Games—and for what the Games will leave behind.

“The City of Chicago’s parks and lakefront have hosted many international celebrations and festivals, including two world’s fairs and the 1959 Pan Am Games,” says the Web site.

Take a tour of Chicago in the year 2016 by clicking on the interactive map of proposed sports facilities in the various neighborhoods, and see how they’ll impact city attractions, such as the Sears Tower, the Art Institute, and the Lincoln Park Conservatory.

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"BLUE OCEAN" STRATEGY FOR KOREA: WFS President Tim Mack recently returned from Seoul, South Korea, where he presented a keynote address at the International Symposium on Blue Economy Initiative for Green Growth, organized by the Millennium Project. Mack outlined the "Blue Ocean Strategy" for simultaneously protecting the Korean coastline, ecosystems, and cultural heritage. "Oceans can offer hope for solutions in many challenging areas," he said, "and 'Blue Oceans' is a powerful innovation metaphor, signifying new resources, markets, relationships, and values."

* GEAR UP FOR THE FUTURE! Wear your heart on your sleeve—and the World Future Society logo on your shirt! Visit the Society’s all new store at Café Press and get your custom-designed T-shirts, tote bags, coffee mugs, and more. “Carpe Futurum! Seize the Future” and tell the world that “The Future Matters.” Remember, WFS products (including memberships) make great gifts for graduates, as well as friends, family, clients, and colleagues.

- SHOP: http://www.cafepress.com/worldfuture

- GIFT MEMBERSHIPS: http://www.wfs.org/giftorder.htm

* HELP PLAN WORLDFUTURE 2010: The World Future Society is already making plans for the 2010 annual meeting, to be held in Boston under the leadership of conference chair Carol D. Rieg, corporate foundation officer of Bentley Systems. The WorldFuture 2010 planning committee seeks your ideas! What should be the conference theme? "Our World in Transition" ... "From Insights to Action" ... "Collective Wisdom, Collaborative Futures"? Send your short, catchy, and inspiring suggestions to mailto:sechard@wfs.org .

* WHAT’S NEXT IN THE FUTURIST: The cover story for July-August is an eye-opening look at prospects for automated invention. Can artificial intelligence really replicate human ingenuity, or will it just take the grunt work out of engineering? Also: What are the real security threats for the next 15 years? Newt Gingrich, Dennis Kucinich, and other international policy experts come to different conclusions. These stories and more in the next issue of THE FUTURIST, to be mailed to members after June 1. RENEW or JOIN now so you won’t miss a thing! www.wfs.org/membership.htm

* EDITOR’S QUERY: NORMATIVE FUTURES. What’s on your wish list for reforming your industry or profession? What policy change, paradigm shift, new technology, or social innovation would create a better future? Please send your ideas (approximately 500 words), along with a brief About the Author note, photo, and your complete contact information, to FUTURIST UPDATE editor Cindy Wagner at mailto:cwagner@wfs.org

May 2009, Vol 10, No. 5

In This Issue...
* Increasing Cooperation against Security Threats
* Predicting Freight Traffic
* Battles for Outer Space
* Click of the Month: Emergency Care For You
* News for the Futurist Community
* What’s Hot @WFS.ORG

INCREASING COOPERATION AGAINST SECURITY THREATS

At the end of the Cold War, when the first U.S. Cooperative Threat Reduction programs to dismantle nuclear weapons were composed, the primary security concern among U.S. officials was the former Soviet Union and its weapons of mass destruction. Now, threats are coming more "from groups that are agile, networked, and adaptable," says the National Research Council, a research association that advises the U.S. government.

In a new report mandated by Congress, the Council recommends a bold vision for cooperative threat reduction that encourages strategic partnerships among agencies both within and beyond the traditional security silos.

The “CTR 2.0” model would engage not just the defense, state, and energy departments in security assessment and risk reduction, but would also include departments and agencies not typically associated with global security threats. For instance, the Agriculture Department would become more involved, as recent threats to food safety and security have illustrated crucial areas of vulnerability.

The model also recommends including the nongovernmental and private sectors, such as academia, corporations, and civil society, all of which are not only stakeholders in national security but also boast expertise and resources vital to threat reduction.

SOURCE: "Global Security Engagement: A New Model for Cooperative Threat Reduction," National Research Council, 2009. Published by the National Academies Press. http://www.nap.edu/

PREDICTING FREIGHT TRAFFIC

How many trucks will take one route through the state versus another? How much freight will they be carrying? How much traffic will just pass through and how much will stop for deliveries or pickups? And why do these questions matter?

Forecasts for freight traffic matter because efficient movement of goods supports economic growth. Knowing where the heaviest traffic will be matters to transportation departments that must make decisions about where to build new roads or when to schedule highway maintenance—projects that require long-term planning.

Researchers at the University of Alabama in Huntsville have developed a new freight and truck traffic forecasting tool to aid metropolitan planning teams. Their model examines changes in the sizes of populations and key industries, thus showing where local traffic flows may change. It also accounts for pass-through volume—i.e., traffic moving through the region over which the planners have no control. The result is a more accurate picture of freight traffic’s future impacts.

SOURCE: University of Alabama in Huntsville
http://www.uah.edu/insight/insightread.php?newsID=1333

BATTLES FOR OUTER SPACE

The U.S. military has named the space environment a “special area of emphasis” due to growing international space-based operations.

Attacks on space assets such as satellites are a key concern, but other threats besides weapons attacks exist, such as collisions with space debris and electronic jamming.

“America’s way of life is dependent on space,” notes Colonel Sean D. McClung, director of Air University’s National Space Studies Center. “We have to think about what we would do if our systems in space were attacked—how we determine attribution for the attack, and respond in appropriate manner.”

By declaring the space environment a special area of emphasis, the Defense Department will devote more resources and attention to space in the curricula of professional military colleges.

SOURCE: U.S. Air Force Link, Air University
http://www.af.mil/news/story.asp?id=123142047

CLICK OF THE MONTH: EMERGENCY CARE FOR YOU

http://www.EmergencyCareForYou.org

Imagine this scenario: Your mom falls on the sidewalk, and a kind passerby calls 911. She’s at the hospital now, but the nurses need to know if she’s allergic to the pain medication they want to give her. And if she has diabetes. And whether she’s on Coumadin.

Are you ready to answer these questions on her behalf? Or is a family member ready to answer for you? As the numbers of elderly with chronic health problems grow, the need for caregivers to be prepared for emergencies will increase.

Emergency Care For You, a service of the American College of Emergency Physicians, offers tips for what you may need to know or have with you for a trip to the ER, as well as common medical forms to download and complete, such as lists of current medications, medical histories, advanced medical directives, and insurance information.

Other tips for emergency preparation: Anticipate that the patient will be admitted to the hospital, so bring personal items and a change of clothes; keep a list of doctors’ and specialists’ contact information handy; bring something to read; and bring a notebook to help keep track of what happens, since you may be responsible for conveying information between doctors and the patient.

NEWS FOR THE FUTURIST COMMUNITY

* CALL FOR ARTICLES: “SO YOU WANT TO TEACH THE FUTURE?” Article submissions are being accepted for a special issue of the Journal of Futures Studies, April 2010 Issue, entitled “So You Want to Teach the Future?” Guest Editor Stephen F. Steele of the Institute for the Future @ AACC (http://www.aacc.edu/future ) is looking for three types of work: (1) articles (roughly 5,000–7,000 words) that provide descriptions, discussions, and case studies of how to “teach” the future—all articles are refereed by two reviewers; (2) shorter (3,000 words or so) anecdotal essays with a spotlight on teaching futures and foresight; and (3) future GIFTs—great ideas for teaching the future. Content of essays and GIFTs will be negotiated between author and editor. The deadline for submissions is November 30, 2009. DETAILS: http://www.aacc.edu/future/callforarticles.cfm

* FUTURES RESEARCH METHODOLOGY 3.0: Coming soon is the latest version of the Millennium Project’s CD-ROM compilation, FUTURES RESEARCH METHODOLOGY. Version 3.0 promises to “be the most comprehensive internationally peer reviewed collection of methods to explore the future ever assembled history,” according to Millennium Project director and co-editor Jerome C. Glenn. With extensively updated and improved chapters as well as new chapters, FRM 3.0 gives you all the tools you need to track, forecast, manage, and mold the world of tomorrow. CONTACT Jerome C. Glenn mailto:jglenn@igc.org

* FUTURES RESEARCHER’S QUERY: As futures researchers, we are naturally interested in the future of many different subjects, such as demography, economy, climate, and technology. But are we looking at the future of our own discipline as well? How will we look at the future in ten years from now? Which methods will we use then? Which position and role will futures researchers have in the future? I am looking for (scientific) studies that address this topic. I am working on a literature review on the future of futures research (studies) and I would like to find out what the common issues are throughout these studies. CONTACT: Dr. Patrick van der Duin, Delft University of Technology, Faculty of Technology, Policy and Management, mailto:p.a.vanderduin@tudelft.nl

* BOB FISHER: Longtime WFS supporter and energy specialist Bob Fisher died on March 17 at his home after a long illness. He is survived by his wife, futurist consultant Lauren Huddleston. Both Bob and Lauren have participated at WFS conferences and written for THE FUTURIST. Bob’s last article for the magazine was "The Future of Energy" (September-October 1997), which “provided valuable insights on the need to shift our human values away from the accumulation of wealth toward providing a higher quality of human life,” said FUTURIST editor Edward Cornish.

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What"s Hot @WFS.ORG

* WORLD FUTURE REVIEW’s second issue (April-May 2009) features opposing opinions by Ervin Laszlo and Michael Marien on whether the world is making the quantum leap to a global brain—and whether this would be a good thing. The featured futurist interviewed in this issue is FUTURE SAVVY author Adam Gordon. Other articles cover “The Emerging Inner Solar System Economy” and “Future Systems Engineering and the Role of Complexity.” And in every issue of WFR is Future Survey: abstracts of books, articles, blogs, and reports concerning forecasts, trends, and ideas about the future. JOIN the Professional Membership program of the World Future Society and receive WFR:

* CALL FOR ABSTRACTORS: If you’re a futurist who loves books and are interested in contributing to our field’s knowledge base, consider becoming a Future Survey abstractor for WORLD FUTURE REVIEW. Contact editor Tim Mack at mailto:tmack@wfs.org

* MEMBERSHIP SALE ENDS SOON! The World Future Society is offering a special 2-for-3 membership deal! Join (or renew) at the regular price for two years and get your third year free! Plan ahead, save money, and never miss a single issue of THE FUTURIST (or WORLD FUTURE REVIEW for Professionals). This one-time offer expires on April 30. SAVE NOW:

* THE FUTURIST on EncyclopAedia Britannica.com: Want to know what the World Health Organization’s guidelines on pandemics actually say? Or what Saudi Arabia is doing to rehabilitate terrorists? Or what is being called the newest greenhouse gas threat? Read these stories from THE FUTURIST and others you may have missed at THE FUTURIST magazine’s blog spot on the Encyclopaedia Britannica Web site.

* TWEETS FROM THE YEAR 2030, the Twitter site of THE FUTURIST magazine. Check out THE FUTURIST home page for up-to-the-minute news from 2020, 2030, 2050, and beyond or sign up to follow us on Twitter.

April 2009, Vol 10, No. 4

Putting Professors Back in the Classroom
Top Cities with Energy-Efficient Buildings
Reining in Local Government
Click of the Month: Economic Turning Point
News for the Futurist Community
What's Hot @WFS.ORG

PUTTING PROFESSORS BACK IN THE CLASSROOM

The “publish-or-perish” pressure on professors to produce works of scholarship may be undermining education, warns the American Enterprise Institute. Scholarly publishing is growing (despite unimpressive sales trends at academic presses), while undergraduate performance is declining.

According to AEI’s report “Professors on the Production Line, Students On Their Own” by Mark Bauerlein of Emory University, tenure review requires that professors bulk up their CVs with publishing credentials but makes no demands on class time. As young scholars consider academic careers, their eyes turn toward research rather than teaching.

The report, which focuses on trends in literature and the humanities, recommends that donors and foundations earmark more of their funds for undergraduate teaching activities rather than research, and that universities make hiring decisions based on teaching proficiency rather than research expertise.

SOURCE: American Enterprise Institute, Education Policy Studies
www.aei.org/futureofeducation

SEE ALSO: "Professors on the Production Line, Students on Their Own" by Mark Bauerlein, AEI Future of Education Project working paper:
www.aei.org/docLib/20090317_Bauerlein.pdf

TOP CITIES WITH ENERGY-EFFICIENT BUILDINGS

When we think of energy efficiency, we usually focus on building better cars or making transportation systems more efficient. But what about building better buildings?

“Energy use in commercial buildings and manufacturing plants accounts for nearly half of total U.S. greenhouse-gas emissions and nearly half of energy consumption nationwide,” reports the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency.

To shine a spotlight on cities that have improved the efficiency of their commercial and public buildings, the EPA has awarded “Energy Stars” to metro areas that have reduced greenhouse-gas emissions by 35% and use 35% less energy. The top 10 for 2008 are Los Angeles; San Francisco; Houston; Washington, D.C.; Dallas–Fort Worth; Chicago; Denver; Minneapolis–St. Paul; Atlanta; and Seattle.

SOURCE: Energy Star program, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
http://energystar.gov/labeledbuildings

MENDOZA COLLEGE OF BUSINESS

SPECIAL PROFESSIONAL FACULTY

The Mendoza College of Business at the University of Notre Dame invites applications for a Special Professional Faculty position for the 2009-2010 academic year for its required junior-level course: Foresight in Business and Society. This futures course explores business and societal trends, foresight techniques, research methods for forecasting the future, and intervention strategies, especially those focused on sustainability. Additionally, the course requires students to complete a comprehensive research study and paper. More details on the course are available at: http://business.nd.edu/future/ .

Candidates for the Special Professional Faculty position may have backgrounds in a wide range of fields and disciplines. A master’s degree or higher is required, with a Ph.D. preferred. The ideal candidate will have some combination of educational, professional, and/or teaching experience in business, foresight and futuring techniques, and related research and/or teaching experience. The employment contract is renewable and the salary is competitive.

Applicants should submit a cover letter, vita, references and a teaching portfolio which provides evidence of quality teaching. Materials should be sent to:

Professor Tom Frecka
Special Professional Faculty—Futures Studies Course
204 Mendoza College of Businesss
University of Notre Dame, IN 46556-0399

Applications will be accepted until April 1, 2009.

The University of Notre Dame is an equal opportunity and affirmative action employer with a strong commitment to fostering a culturally diverse environment for faculty, staff, and students. Women, minorities, and those attracted to a university with a Catholic identity are encouraged to apply. Information about Notre Dame, including our mission statement is available at http://www.nd.edu .

REINING IN LOCAL GOVERNMENT

In the United States, a new local government is born every day. More public institutions may not be a bad thing if people’s views are being represented and needs being served. However, Americans in certain jurisdictions may be overgoverned to the point that their economic and personal freedom is in peril, charges a new study from George Mason University’s Mercatus Center.

The study ranked the 50 U.S. states on fiscal and regulatory policy and on “paternalism,” covering such issues as gambling, alcohol, smoking in public areas, and doctor-assisted suicides. The freest states were Colorado, New Hampshire, Texas, South Dakota, and Idaho, while the least-free were New York, New Jersey, Rhode Island, Maryland, and California.

Even more governance thrives beyond the state level: There are now nearly 90,000 local governments in the United States, according to the Goldwater Institute’s Center for Constitutional Government.

The Center recommends that new local governments focus on ensuring freedom for citizens by providing protections from abusive regulations. The Center recommends that cities enact a Local Liberty Charter guaranteeing basic citizen rights, such as presumption of liberty, use and enjoyment of property, freedom from crime, fiscally responsible government, and freedom from favoritism.

SOURCES: Mercatus Center, George Mason University
www.mercatus.org

Goldwater Institute, Center for Constitutional Government
www.goldwaterinstitute.org

CLICK OF THE MONTH: ECONOMIC TURNING POINT

www.economicturningpoint.com

Web 2.0’s networking powers to the rescue? Economic Turning Point is a “nonpartisan global think tank” inviting everyone from homeowners to politicians to disseminate ideas and information and to participate in creating solutions to the global economic crisis.

“We are facing a dramatic restructuring of our economy,” says Edward Thompson, one of the site’s administrators. The goal of bringing all stakeholders together in a nonpartisan forum is to find ways to create a new economy that avoids the problems of the old.

Among the topics recently under discussion are peak oil, the housing crisis, and IT support for the health industry.

“ETP welcomes people from all political persuasions,” says Thompson. “Nonetheless, we will not tolerate stubborn ideology. All ideas are welcome on our Web site; partisan politicking and finger-pointing are not. We are, first and foremost, solution-oriented.”

THE OXFORD SCENARIOS PROGRAMME – Strategic options for success, May 2009

In today’s uncertain business climate, the Oxford Scenarios Programme identifies the critical drivers of changes that are shaping our wider context and, as a consequence, your strategic options for success. Within this all-inclusive four day programme you construct systems diagrams and story maps to describe and understand plausible alternative scenarios which will test your specific decisions, assess the robustness of your organisation and your future strategic plans.

See www.sbs.oxford.edu/scenarios or email mailto:scenarios@sbs.ox.ac.uk

£4,750 ex VAT, Saïd Business School, University of Oxford.

NEWS FOR THE FUTURIST COMMUNITY

* CONFRONTING UNTOUCHABILITY: The first “World Conference on Untouchability” will be held in London June 9-10, organized by the International Humanist and Ethical Union. Social exclusion based on the class into which a person is born persists in Bangladesh, Burma, India, Japan, Korea, Nepal, Nigeria, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Yemen, and elsewhere, according to the organization. The practice limits educational and economic opportunities. The conference aims to bring together social activists from around the world to share strategies for ending untouchability. DETAILS: www.humanism.org.uk/june2009

* CORRECTION: In the online version of the March Community News item “FUTURES STUDIES ON PERSIAN BBC,” we incorrectly identified the on-camera interviewer as futurist Vahid V. Motlagh. In fact, Motlagh’s interview with BBC Persian Television was conducted by telephone, and he did not appear on camera. We apologize for the misunderstanding.

“The diverse youth audience of the program,” Motlagh explains, “were interested to know what is the impact of futures studies in our personal life. The mere focus on times ahead of us will give us in itself ‘hope’ in spite of all disappointing facts that may surround us today, because through futures studies we find out that there will be a lot of alternative potentials on the horizon, which in turn help us become more patient.” For more information, visit Motlagh’s Web site. www.vahidthinktank.com.

March 2009, Vol. 10, No. 3

In This Issue:

* Economic Rebound Forecast for 2010
* Long-Term Benefits of Recession-Proofing Strategies
* Alaska Youth Success Stories
* Antarctica’s Accelerated Warming
* Click of the Month: TeacherTube
* News for the Futurist Communi

ECONOMIC REBOUND FORECAST FOR 2010

The members of the National Association for Business Economics (NABE) see a sharp decline in economic activity throughout the first quarter of this year with continued contraction in the United States through second quarter and a virtually flat third and fourth quarter. The result will be a net decline of 0.9% in GDP for 2009, according to the February Outlook survey.

"The good news is that economic activity is expected to turn up in the second half of the year and 2010 is expected to see modestly above-trend growth of 3.1%” according NABE President Chris Varvares, president of group Macroeconomic Advisers and a member of the NABE. The NABE Outlook survey presents the consensus of macroeconomic forecasts from a panel of 47 professional economic forecasters.

Among the key forecasts of the February 2009 survey:

• The current downturn will most resemble that of 1973-75.

• Real government spending will advance 2.8% in 2009.

• The consumer price index will decline 0.8% in 2009, as already large commodity price declines pass through to consumer prices.

• The jobless rate will peak at 9.0% by the end of the year. House prices will decline 5% during 2009, though the S&P 500 index is expected to rise a solid 8% by December 31, 2009.

SOURCE: National
Association for Business Economics

LONG-TERM BENEFITS OF RECESSION-PROOFING STRATEGIES

With more businesses and individual workers seeking ways to “recession-proof” themselves, could the economy emerge from hard times stronger and more innovative than ever?

Recession-proofing workers might focus on becoming more fearless and innovative. Take your ideas to the boss rather than allow uncertainties to back you into your cubicle, urges Robin Fisher Roffer, author of THE FEARLESS FISH OUT OF WATER (Wiley, 2009). “It may seem scary to make such a bold move in tenuous times,” she says, “but leaders will appreciate any innovation that will get business moving right now.”

Businesses, too, are encouraged to be fearlessly proactive rather than cautious and reactive. Hard times are the time for action, suggests consultant Suzanne Caplan, because inaction “spawns a pattern of victimization, and pins us down into a habit of only reacting to the bad, instead of planning for the better.”

SOURCES: Robin Fisher Roffer, author of FEARLESS FISH OUT OF WATER

Suzanne Caplan, founder and chief blogger, www.womenetcetera.com

ALASKA YOUTH SUCCESS STORIES

Why do some teenagers make successful transitions into young adulthood (avoiding substance abuse, suicide, and other problems), while others do not? A research project following the lives of Inuit youths in Alaska will help answer this vital question.

Spearheaded by health educator Lisa Wexler of the University of Massachusetts, Amherst, the research will survey 120 young-adult Inuit who have avoided these problems and successfully created balance in their lives between modern and traditional cultures.

By focusing on the young people’s resilience, and not just on risk factors, the study aims to identify and nurture strengths among youth of all different cultures.

SOURCE: University of Massachusetts, Amherst
University
of Massachusetts, Amherst

ANTARCTICA’S ACCELERATED WARMING

Long thought to be cooling while the rest of the globe warms, Antarctica may be warming at comparable rates, according to new research by Eric Steig, a University of Washington professor of earth and space sciences.

The vast East Antarctica has indeed been cooling, but new satellite data shows that West Antarctica, with its large ice sheet, has been warming over the past 50 years to levels that offset the east’s cooling.

Steig notes that the continent is extremely complex and that rates of cooling and warming vary everywhere, but “the evidence shows the continent as a whole is getting warmer.” One of the side effects of repairing the hole in the ozone layer over the Antarctica is that all of Antarctica could begin warming at the same rate as the rest of the world.

SOURCE:
University of Washington

CLICK OF THE MONTH: TeacherTube

www.teachertube.com

Helpful and inspiring multimedia resources for K-12 teachers are just a click away. TeacherTube offers samples of student projects as well as master-instructor tutorials on any subject in the curriculum.

One noteworthy channel focusing on classroom inspiration is The Futures Channel, featuring well-known teachers like Jaime Escalante and Kay Toliver. Searching videos with key words like “futures” and “scenarios” yields such interesting resources as interviews with global educators on “what will school look like in 15-20 years time” and a series exploring the future of various careers.

Membership is free and open to anyone over age 18 but geared toward teachers. Members may upload their own videos, participate in discussion forums, create playlists, and get tips on integrating multimedia into classroom projects.

OUTLOOK 2009

More sex, fewer antidepressants. More religious influence in China, less religious influence in the Middle East and the United States. More truth and transparency online, but a totally recorded real life.

These are just a few of the forecasts in the latest edition of the World Future Society’s annual Outlook report. Order your own copy, or buy several to distribute to your colleagues, clients, students, and friends!

ORDER PDF or print copies:

READ the Top 10 Forecasts:

WATCH video preview:

NEWS FOR THE FUTURIST COMMUNITY

* WORLD FUTURE REVIEW’S FIRST ISSUE! Pardon our bias, but the biggest news for the futurist community right now is the publication of the first issue of WORLD FUTURE REVIEW, the Society’s professional “Journal of Strategic Foresight.” This exciting first issue features an interview with 2009 conference keynote speaker Don Tapscott and a review of his latest book, GROWN UP DIGITAL.

As the successor of two of the Society’s esteemed journals, FUTURES RESEARCH QUARTERLY and FUTURE SURVEY, WFR offers an array of original and insightful papers. In the first issue are “Towards a Future of Global Science” by Elisabet Sahtouris, “Ensuring Strategic Direction” by Robert E. Neilson, “Ethnography in Robotics” by Gerardo del Cerro Santamaria, and “The Future Evolution of the Ecology of Mind” by Tom Lombardo. In addition, WFR has enlisted a stable of excellent futurist writers to provide abstracts of the latest significant future-oriented writing, covering books, articles, blogs, and other original sources.

WFR is included in Professional Membership of the World Future Society, but for a limited time only, nonmembers may order this first edition for just $25. ORDER or LEARN MORE.

SUBMISSIONS to WFR should be addressed to Tim Mack, mailto:tmack@wfs.org

* FUTURES STUDIES ON PERSIAN BBC: Futurist Vahid V. Motlagh was recently interviewed on BBC Persian Television, offering Persian speakers in Iran and its neighbors a concise overview of the principles and goals of futures studies. His message was that studying the future helps inspire us to look to tomorrow with more hope and creativity. http://www.vahidthinktank.com/

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!! WHAT’S HOT @WFS.ORG !!

* If the economic downturn has you down, read what FINANCIAL TIMES columnist Martin Wolf has to say on what we need to do to turn things around. Read THE FUTURIST’s exclusive interview with Wolf “Repairing the World Financial System,”

* Learning the principles of foresight and the skills of futuring will help you keep a steady hand on the forces altering our world. Sign up for a free 10-part e-mail course, “Fundamentals of Foresight,” from WFS president Tim Mack. ENROLL now:

* Deadline for high-school-student essay contest submissions is March 31! What are the challenges you see before you as you look beyond high school? How do you expect to meet those challenges as you think about college and the future workplace? The World Future Society is seeking essays on how you are using futuring skills to take charge of your future. First-prize winner will receive a three-year membership in the World Future Society and free admission to WorldFuture 2009, the Society’s annual meeting, to be held in Chicago July 17-19. DETAILS:

February 2009, Vol. 10, No. 2

In This Issue:
* Half of Planet May Face Food Crisis
* Yardstick for Measuring Health
* Darwin and Lincoln Bicentennials
* Click of the Month: International Year of Astronomy 2009
* News for the Futurist Community

HALF OF PLANET MAY FACE FOOD CRISIS

Humanity must adapt to climate change now or face food crises that will affect half the world’s population by 2100, warns a team of scientists led by David Battisti of the University of Washington, Seattle.

Rapid warming alters crop yields in both the tropics and subtropics, with the most-severe potential food shortages hitting the equatorial belt, home to the world’s fastest-growing and poorest populations. Water supplies are also affected by the climate, further imperiling food security, according to Battisti.

Studying historic food disruptions and temperature change, the researchers found that humanity has been able to adapt to conditions. In the future, however, food systems will need to be rethought completely, the researchers argue. For instance, wheat currently makes up one-fourth of the calories consumed in India, but wheat yields there have been stagnant for a decade.

“We have to be rethinking agriculture systems as a whole, not only thinking about new varieties but also recognizing that many people will just move out of agriculture, and even move from the lands where they live now,” says team member Rosamond Naylor, director of Stanford University’s Program on Food Security and the Environment.

SOURCE: University of Washington, Seattle
http://uwnews.org/article.asp?articleID=46272

YARDSTICK FOR MEASURING HEALTH

Twenty specific indicators of public health should be tracked by U.S. policy makers, recommends a new report by the Institute of Medicine of the National Academies. Tracking changes in these indicators over time will help determine the effectiveness of policies to promote Americans’ health and well-being.

The indicators include measures of health outcomes (life expectancy, infant mortality, injury-related mortality, psychological distress), measures of behavior (obesity, exercise routines, alcoholic consumption, condom use), and measures of institutional service provision (health insurance coverage, hospitalization rates, percentage of adults who are up-to-date in preventive screenings and immunizations).

The indicators are intended to give a broad picture of Americans’ overall health, which involves socioeconomic factors, such as income, race, ethnicity, and education, as well as environmental factors, such as pollution.

"This report takes an important step of capturing the health of the American people with a few key indicators," says committee chair George J. Isham, medical director and chief health officer of HealthPartners Inc. in Bloomington, Minnesota. "Given the gap between the relatively low performance and high costs of our health care system, data that is readily accessible on the Internet will be of great value in devising strategies to close this gap.”

SOURCE: Institute of Medicine, National Academies
http://www.nap.edu/catalog.php?record_id=12534

DARWIN AND LINCOLN BICENTENNIALS

February 12, 2009, marks the 200th anniversaries of the births of two of history’s leading thinkers: Charles Darwin and Abraham Lincoln.

Among the organizations commemorating the Darwin bicentennial are:

* The Boston-based Darwin Bicentennial Project, which includes information on the MIT Darwin Symposium. “Though Darwin never corresponded with Lincoln, he and his family were abolitionists,” the Web site notes. “His grandfather, Josiah Wedgewood, was a leader of the abolitionist movement in Great Britain. Darwin followed the course of the US Civil War and expressed his hope for a Union victory in his correspondence with Harvard's Asa Gray.”
http://darwinbicentennial.org/

* Darwin Day is “a global celebration of science and reason.” The site features a countdown to February 12 and serves as a portal to a variety of commemorative events planned. http://www.darwinday.org/

* Darwin Project’s mission “is to speed the shift in our homes,
schools, and the media from only teaching destructive ‘first-half’ Darwinism to the inspiring liberation of Darwin's long lost completing half—along with all the fields of modern science that support and expand Darwin's original full vision to reveal caring, love, moral evolution, and education as the prime drivers for human evolution.” (Project founder David Loye’s page) http://www.thedarwinproject.com/loye/loye.html
http://www.thedarwinproject.com/home.html

And rallying the celebrations for Lincoln are:

* Lincoln Bicentennial, featuring background on Lincoln’s life and legacy, projects and contests for kids, a calendar of events, and more. http://www.lincolnbicentennial.gov

* Ford’s Theatre, which has undergone extensive restorations in time for reopening in February, with activities planned for the bicentennial, including Lincoln and Civil War related theatrical productions on the historic Ford’s stage.http://www.fordstheatre.org/home/performances-events/bicentennial-events

CLICK OF THE MONTH: International Year of Astronomy 2009

www.astronomy2009.org/

Are you looking forward to the solar eclipse on January 29? Anxious to find out what “dark matter” really is and how it affects the destiny of the universe and all its contents?

Check out the resources, networking opportunities, and news about research and activities in astronomy on this site devoted to the International Year of Astronomy 2009, an initiative of the International Astronomical Union and UNESCO.

The site includes a comprehensive astronomical calendar of events, both celestial and earthbound, future and historical (Galileo turns 445 on February 15), so you won’t miss any of the excitement.

You can also join your fellow astronomy lovers in a discussion forum on all the great events and research breakthroughs, and even get advice on telescopes and binoculars for amateurs.

OUTLOOK 2009

More sex, fewer antidepressants. More religious influence in China, less religious influence in the Middle East and the United States. More truth and transparency online, but a totally recorded real life.

These are just a few of the forecasts in the latest edition of the World Future Society’s annual Outlook report. Order your own copy, or buy several to distribute to your colleagues, clients, students, and friends!

ORDER PDF or print copies:
http://www.wfs.org/specialreports.htm

NEWS FOR THE FUTURIST COMMUNITY

* WORKPLACE EXPERT AND WORLDFUTURE 2009 speaker John Challenger was interviewed on CNN.com to discuss rising unemployment. He advised people who had recently lost their jobs " It's so important to get a fast start. Be ready to learn something new, get into an entirely new industry to work part time in a job that may turn into a full time job."

* EUROPE CHAPTER FOR WFS: Plans are under way for the launch of a Europe Chapter of the World Future Society. The Chapter is scheduled to be launched at a special lunch at Restaurant Terminus Nord, Rue de Dunkerque, Paris, France, on Wednesday, February 18, 2009, at noon. All WFS members are cordially invited to attend. Please RSVP in order to allow us to inform the restaurant of numbers ahead of time. DETAILS and RSVP: or contact Stephen Aguilar-Millan at mailto:stephena@eufo.org
http://www.eufo.org/index_files/paris2009.htm

* SCENARIOS 2.0: Social Technologies recently unveiled its new scenario planning technique at a meeting at the Houston Technology Center in Houston, Texas. Led by futurists Andy Hines and Terry Grim, the event showcased Social Technologies’ new approach to scenario planning, using the future of work as a sample topic to demonstrate the process. DETAILS: Social Technologies
http://www.socialtechnologies.com/FileView.aspx?fileName=Scenarios 2.0.pdf

* FIGHTING HEALTH DISPARITIES: The Disparity Reducing Advances Project (the DRA Project) is a multi-year, multi-stakeholder project developed by the Institute for Alternative Futures (IAF) to identify the most promising advances for bringing health gains to the poor and underserved and accelerating the development and deployment of these advances to reduce disparities. http://www.altfutures.com/draproject/

* STATE OF THE STATES REPORT: KEY TRENDS FOR 2009 The Pew Center on the States has released its forecasts for the key trends affecting state governments in the United States for the year ahead. As policy makers hone in on budget issues in a time of economic turmoil, State of the States directs attention to education, corrections and the criminal-justice system, Medicaid, energy, same-sex marriage, immigration, infrastructure, homelessness, and other social safety-net needs. http://www.stateline.org/live/publications/print-request

January 2009, Vol. 10, No. 1

Decarbonizing Energy...Workplace Trend Watcher’s Advice...Oceanic “Lab on a Chip”...Cracking Down on Scientific Fraud...Click of the Month: eHow...Editor's Query: Wild Cards.

DECARBONIZING ENERGY

Solar, wind, and biomass energy technologies that are available now could cut carbon emissions by one-third by 2030, as well as generate thousands of new jobs, according to "Low-Carbon Energy: A Roadmap," a new report from the Worldwatch Institute.

These power sources will need to be integrated with digital smart grids that can flexibly meet changes in supply and demand. In addition, economical energy storage capacity must be developed, says the report. These measures will help retire hundreds of coal-fired plants, which provide 40% of the world's energy.

"We no longer need to say 'in the future' when talking about a low-carbon energy system," says Worldwatch President Christopher Flavin, author of the report. "These technologies—unlike carbon-capture facilities—are being deployed now and are poised to make the most carbon-intensive fossil fuels obsolete."

DETAILS: Worldwatch Institute  

WORKPLACE TREND WATCHER’S ADVICE

Companies’ planned job cuts in the United States rose steadily throughout 2008, and heavy downsizing is expected to continue through the first half of 2009, according to Chicago-based outplacement consultancy Challenger, Gray & Christmas. But CEO John Challenger advises job seekers not to take a holiday from their search.

“It is important for job seekers to understand that even amid the slowdown there is the need for organizations to continue hiring to build bench strength, as well as replace employees who leave or retire,” Challenger observes. “Companies must also continue to recruit knowing that any future economic expansion will likely bring the return of labor shortages.”

The firm conducts a free hotline service each year and will suspend its normal business operations on December 29 and 30 to take phone calls from anyone needing job-search advice. The two-day national job search call-in will run from 9:00 a.m. to 5:00 p.m. Central Standard Time both days. The telephone number is 312-332-5790.

SOURCE: Challenger, Gray & Christmas

OCEANIC "LAB ON A CHIP"

A sturdy array of miniaturized sensors promises to help marine scientists track nutrients and pollutants in oceans, as well as temperature and other important chemical and biochemical characteristics.

Having passed its tests at depths of 1,600 meters (5,250 feet), the marine "lab on a chip" will be developed further for commercialization, according to project directors at the University of Southampton.

The scientists also aim to develop small chips that could identify individual phytoplankton in the oceans. Among the future applications of the chips will be environmental impact analysis and monitoring ship ballast water.

SOURCE:

SAVE $200! REGISTER NOW FOR WORLDFUTURE 2009 !!

Sign up now for the World Future Society's next annual meeting, WorldFuture 2009. The theme, Innovation and Creativity in a Complex World, promises one of the most inspiring programs yet! Join us in Chicago at the beautiful Hilton Chicago hotel, July 17-19, 2009.

In addition to an exciting conference program with leading futurist thinkers, the meeting will also offer you the opportunity to invest in your own skills through preconference courses, expand your horizons with a special tour of the Advanced Photon Source at the Argonne National Laboratory, and help build innovative and effective learning systems for the future at the Education Summit.

SAVE $200! REGISTER BY DECEMBER 31:
LEARN MORE:

SUBMIT A CONFERENCE VOLUME ESSAY (Deadline, March 2, 2009. Early
submissions urged!):

CRACKING DOWN ON SCIENTIFIC FRAUD

Fabricating, manipulating, and stealing data are among the abuses found among some scientists. Though there is little hard evidence on the extent of the problem, the impacts of misconduct in science can be deadly, as in the case of falsified clinical results in drug trials.

While the United States has given statutory powers to various agencies to investigate fraud allegations, no European country has yet done so. Now, the European Science Foundation has organized a new Research Integrity Forum, in collaboration with the Spanish National Research Council, to help integrate national codes of ethics.

Differences of national opinion on what constitutes unethical behavior and how it should be dealt with becomes a big problem when so much more scientific collaboration crosses national borders, the group notes.

SOURCE:

www.ehow.com

www.ehow.com

Suppose you had some really great striped socks that now have holes in the toes. With an economic climate dictating frugality, you’ll need to save your cute socks by learning how to repair them yourself. (Do they still even make “darning eggs”?)

Thanks to eHow’s article on “How to Darn a Sock,” you’ll learn that you can simply use a light bulb or a small hard ball in the toe of your sock while weaving matching-colored yarn or embroidery floss over the hole.

Billing itself as the "How To Do Just About Everything" site, eHow offers articles and videos in categories ranging from advertising ("How to Advertise or Market with Bluetooth for Free") to sex and conception ("How to Choose the Sex of Your Baby").

And for those interested in contributing their expertise to the eHow knowledge base, there are also articles on how to write for eHow. A quick scan of the site uncovered few if any articles on forecasting or scenario development, so futurists, start your engines!

OUTLOOK 2009

More sex, fewer antidepressants. More religious influence in China, less religious influence in the Middle East and the United States. More truth and transparency online, but a totally recorded real life.

These are just a few of the forecasts in the latest edition of the World Future Society’s annual Outlook report. Order your own copy, or buy several to distribute to your colleagues, clients, students, and friends!

EDITORIAL QUERY: WILD CARDS

Asteroid collisions or robot invasions may never happen, but if they do, the impacts could be significant.

What one Wild Card do you think futurists need to pay attention to right now? Send us a brief essay (maximum of 500 words) telling us what we should be looking out for, how it might come about, what the impacts could be, and what we should do about it. (And remember, not all Wild Cards are bad.)

E-MAIL your Wild Card essay to mailto:cwagner@wfs.org

Futurist Update 2008 Issues

December 2008 Vol. 8, No. 12

Receiving a pass-along copy or haven't joined WFS yet? Check out our special membership offer. http://www.wfs.org/tomorrow

In This Issue:
* Drug Therapy Could Benefit Frail Elderly
* Recession-Proofing Your Career
* How the Environment May Benefit from Financial Crisis
* Click of the Month: Guy Yeomans's London Futures Symposium Coverage
* News from the Futurist Community

DRUG THERAPY COULD BENEFIT FRAIL ELDERLY

Muscle mass in the arms and legs of healthy older adults increased with the experimental drug MK-677, with no serious side effects, according to researchers at the University of Virginia Health System. A single daily dose could help frail adults stay strong enough to avoid falls and fractures, the researchers believe.

The drug mimics the actions of a peptide that stimulates the growth hormone secretagogue receptor (GHSR), which helps regulate growth hormone and appetite. In the study, MK-677 restored 20% of muscle mass loss associated with normal aging.

"Our study opens the door to the possibility of developing treatments that avert the frailty of aging," says Michael O. Thorner, a professor of internal medicine and neurosurgery. "The search for anti-frailty medications has become increasingly important because the average American is expected to live into his or her 80s, and most seniors want to stay strong enough to remain independent as they age."

SOURCE: University of Virginia Health System,
www.healthsystem.virginia.edu/internet/news/archives08/anti_frailty.cfm

RECESSION-PROOFING YOUR CAREER

Employers will likely continue to aggressively reduce payrolls in the foreseeable future, according to The Conference Board's assessment of its latest Employment Trends Index.

Few sectors seem immune to these cuts, though individuals with skills in high demand may find it a little easier to transition to a new employer. Personal-finance adviser Kiplinger.com reports that the career choices likely to remain hot over the next few years include:

* Health care (e.g., pharmacists, physical therapists).
* Education (especially math, science, and bilingual education).
* Security (police officers, detectives, private security guards).
* Environmental science (hydrologists, environmental chemists,
geoscientists).

Forensic accounting and medical equipment and supplies distribution are two of the unique specialty programs that the University of Alabama, Birmingham, offers for students seeking high-growth careers. Public administration also offers some security, the University advises, as the government lays off workers at only 25% of the rate of the private sector.

And for many workers, recession-proofing will mean more self-reliance, fluid career paths, and nontraditional work settings. For example, "jellies" are a new form of worker—mostly young entrepreneurs, freelancers, and telecommuters—first introduced by Web entrepreneur Amit Gupta. Unlike a company's work teams, the members of jelly groups may work for different clients or employers, gathering informally with their fellow jellies to brainstorm and support each other on various projects, notes strategic business futurist Joyce Gioia-Herman.

SOURCES:
The Conference Board, www.conference-board.org
Kiplinger, www.kiplinger.com
University of Alabama, Birmingham, http://main.uab.edu
Herman Trend Alert: Spreading Jellies (November 12, 2008),
www.hermangroup.com

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FREE CAREER COUNSELING AND MORE! REGISTER NOW FOR WORLDFUTURE 2009

Sign up now for the World Future Society's next annual meeting,
WorldFuture 2009, and save $200 off the on-site registration fee. The theme, Innovation and Creativity in a Complex World, promises one of the most inspiring programs yet! Join us in Chicago at the beautiful Hilton Chicago hotel, July 17-19, 2009.

Helen Harkness, a professional career consultant and coach, will
coordinate a free career-counseling program at the conference.
Professional career counselors will volunteer their time and expertise to conduct individual 30-minute counseling sessions.

Among the recently confirmed experts you'll meet are Robert D.
Atkinson, president of the Information Technology and Innovation
Foundation; Freitas Guerra, executive director of SHAREcircle; Philip Kotler, S.C. Johnson & Son distinguished professor of International Marketing at the Kellogg School of Management, Northwestern, University; Ambassador John W. McDonald, president of the Institute of Multi-Track Diplomacy; and Susan Whitfield, president of White Tree Consulting.

A special two-hour tour of the Advanced Photon Source at the U.S. Department of Energy's Argonne National Laboratory has also been arranged for conference attendees on July 17 for just $44 ($35 for Society Members). Space is limited, so sign up now!

REGISTER FOR WORLDFUTURE 2009 BY DECEMBER 31 AND SAVE $200:
https://www.wfs.org/2009regform.htm

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HOW THE ENVIRONMENT MAY BENEFIT FROM FINANCIAL CRISIS

If there could be any bright side to the current financial crisis, it might be that it could slow down rapid development in coastal areas and allow fragile ecosystems such as barrier reefs to regain strength.

So suggests Iliana Ortega, coordinator of the International Coral Reef Initiative in Mexico. Coral reefs provide habitats for a million diverse aquatic species and billions of dollars in jobs in 90 countries around the world, she told a recent symposium on coral reef preservation and sustainable tourism in Mexico.

The Mesoamerican barrier reef in the Caribbean Sea is the second
largest in the world. The reef provides jobs, food, key tourist
attractions, and protection against hurricanes. Threats to the reef system's health from pollution, climate change, and overfishing thus also represent threats to the economic health of Mexico and Central America, Ortega pointed out.

Ortega described her organization's creative marketing efforts to rally public support for saving Mexico's reefs, including parade floats during Carnival, ads on buses (reaching 730,000 people a day), and sales of telephone cards brightly decorated with photographs of corals.

The symposium, "The Wonder and Value of Coral Reefs," was sponsored by the Mexico Tourism Board, the Mexican Ministry of Environment and Natural Resources, and the National Museum of Natural History in Washington, D.C.

FOR MORE INFORMATION, visit International Coral Reef Initiative,
www.icriforum.org

ALSO, International Year of the Reef 2008, www.iyor.org

CLICK OF THE MONTH: GUY YEOMANS'S LONDON FUTURES SYMPOSIUM COVERAGE

www.guyyeomans.com

Guy Yeomans describes his "tumblelog" as an "opportunity to engage with some of my wider futures & strategic foresight interests." In his latest entries, he provides an excellent report of the recent London Futures Symposium, organized by Stephen Aguilar-Millan of the European Futures Observatory.

"I felt this was a useful and comprehensive overview that provided the right kind of insight into the range, versatility and general applicability of the strategic foresight toolkit," Yeomans writes in the first of his reports. "Given the size of the toolkit (9 were explicitly mentioned) it should remind us of the complexity of any investigation of the future."

COMMENT: Responsible citizen journalism in blogs like this can serve a vital function in the Information Age: niche reporting for niche topics. With the fierce competition for attention in the mainstream press, a critical but esoteric subject like the study of the future is too easily and too often ignored. The audience for these subjects now must serve as reporters and gatekeepers; for futurism, I'm gratified to see the need being ably met. --CGW

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NEW WFS PUBLICATION TO LAUNCH IN 2009

WORLD FUTURE REVIEW: A Journal of Strategic Foresight (WFR) is a new bimonthly journal for futures practitioners and researchers, combining the scholarship, professional resources, and literature reviews of its predecessor publications, FUTURES RESEARCH QUARTERLY and FUTURE SURVEY.

WFR will be a key benefit of the Society's new and improved
Professional Membership program.

Highlights of the new journal will include a range of articles on policy, trend dynamics, and new techniques, along with profiles of today's leading foresight practitioners and thinkers and short pieces on critical developments in key areas.

DETAILS, WORLD FUTURE REVIEW and Professional Membership:
www.wfs.org/wfr

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NEWS FROM THE FUTURIST COMMUNITY

* MARILYN FERGUSON, author of THE AQUARIAN CONSPIRACY (1980) and editor of the BRAIN/MIND BULLETIN, died October 19 at her home in Banning, California. She was 70. Ferguson was considered a pioneer in the rise of the New Age movement that promoted the development of human potential through both science and spirituality. DETAILS: www.potentialsmedia.com/MarilynFerguson.html

* COLLECTIVE INTELLIGENCE FOR INTELLIGENCE: The Millennium Project's Korean node has signed a memorandum of understanding with Korea's S&T research organization to create a new intelligence/brain research institute, reports Millennium Project director Jerome C. Glenn. The goal of the yet-unnamed institute will be "to increase knowledge and dissemination of how to improve brain functioning." DETAILS: Millennium Project, World Federation of UN Associations,
www.millennium-project.org

* WFS PRESIDENT PROFILED: The November issue of the WASHINGTON DIPLOMAT journal features a lively and candid profile of Society President Tim Mack, describing the work of futurists and covering a broad range of issues on the minds of futurists now. "For Mack, every day spent thinking about the future is interesting and often surprising," reporter John Shaw notes. "And the challenge of peering into the unknown is always stimulating." READ "Beyond the Crystal Ball: Having the Foresight to Predict Future" by John Shaw, WASHINGTON DIPLOMAT (November 2008): www.washdiplomat.com/November%202008/a1_11_08.html

* WHAT DO WE MEAN BY "SUSTAINABLE"? Futurist Bruce Lloyd asks for feedback from WFS members and friends on the question of what we really mean when we use the term "sustainable." Many of the crises that society has faced, including the current global financial crisis, have occurred because the issue of sustainability was not adequately addressed, he argues. READ Lloyd's essay in the Global Strategies Forum, www.wfs.org/lloyd08.htm, and submit your comments in the feedback box or to FUTURIST UPDATE, mailto:cwagner@wfs.org

November 2008 Vol. 9, No. 11

In This Issue:
* Energy as Currency
* Prisoners Turn a New Leaf
* Global Economy: "Strong" Recovery Forecast for 2011
* Tips for Helping Workers Cope
* Click of the Month: Tim Prosser, Scrimping on Energy
* News from the Futurist Community

NEW WFS PUBLICATION TO LAUNCH IN 2009

World Future Review: A Journal of Strategic Foresight is a bimonthly journal for futures practitioners and researchers, combining the scholarship and professional resources of Futures Research Quarterly with the overview of significant new future-oriented publications provided in Future Survey. FRQ and FS will cease publication at the end of 2008, but the new World Future Review will offer readers the features of each publication plus additional resources and insights.

Highlights of the new journal will include a range of articles on policy, trend dynamics, and new techniques, along with profiles of today’s leading foresight practitioners and thinkers and short pieces on critical developments in key areas.

World Future Review will be a key benefit of the Society’s new and improved Professional Membership program. Whether you work in the private sector, for a government or international organization, at an academic institution, or are simply a member of the concerned community, you’ll benefit from WFR’s fresh, innovative approach and find its articles on social, economic, and technological trends essential to understanding the forces shaping changes and developments that impact all.

DETAILS: World Future Review and Professional Membership

ENERGY AS CURRENCY?

A shaky financial system characterized by volatile money markets and mood-swinging energy prices makes one creative gift idea worth considering: Kilowatt Cards, or gift cards for electricity.

How it works: At Kilowatt Cards’ Web site, you may purchase gift cards with a value of 10 kilowatt hours of electricity (enough to run a 100-watt light bulb for 100 hours). The recipient can then redeem the card at the Web site, which then pays the utility account.

Because the cards hold a specific value, they may also be used to barter for other things and as a hedge against inflation, says spokesperson Robert W. Hahl.

Keep in mind that any enterprise carries risk. Will your Kilowatt Card hold its value five years from now? The organization states in its FAQs: “Kilowatt Cards are backed by a corporation that will still be operating five years from now if it is well-managed. If not, perhaps you will still have a collector’s item.”

DETAILS: Kilowatt Cards

PRISONERS TURN A NEW LEAF

A novel research program is applying one of nature’s sustainability principles: putting “wasted” resources to good use. Instead of languishing in prison cells, inmates at a medium-security prison in Littlerock, Washington, have been recruited to study ecologically important mosses in Pacific Northwest forests.

The Moss-in-Prisons project, led by Nalini Nadkarni of Evergreen State College, uses the inmates to conduct experiments to find the best way to cultivate slow-growing mosses. This will help ecologists replace the vegetation stripped illegally by horticulturalists.

Inmates are ideal research assistants, says Nadkarni, because they “have long periods of time available to observe and measure the growing mosses, access to extensive space to lay out flats of plants, and fresh minds to put forward innovative solutions.”

Other sustainable-living projects promoted at the facility include an organic garden and beekeeping and composting operations. A positive effect for the inmates may be inspiration to improve personal futures: One member of Nadkarni’s research team went for a PhD in microbiology following release from prison.

SOURCE: National Science Foundation

INNOVATION AND CREATIVITY: PRESCRIPTION FOR COMPLEXITY

The theme of the World Future Society's next annual meeting, WorldFuture 2009, is Innovation and Creativity in a Complex World. Mark your calendars now! The conference will be held in Chicago at the beautiful Hilton Chicago hotel, July 17-19, 2009.

Among the forward-thinking experts you’ll meet are bioethicist Arthur D. Caplan of the University of Pennsylvania; Kevin Fickenscher, executive vice president of International Healthcare for Perot Systems Corporation; Esther Franklin, executive vice president and director of cultural identities for Starcom MediaVest Group; Lee Gutkind, founder of Creative Nonfiction and professor of English at the University of Pittsburgh; Ian D. Pearson, futurologist for Futurizon and formerly a futurologist for British Telecommunications; Anna Rappaport, former president of the Society of Actuaries; and Mohan K. Tikku, director of the Centre for Future Studies in Gurgaon, India.

GLOBAL ECONOMY: "STRONG" RECOVERY FORECAST FOR 2011

Nariman Behravesh, chief economist at IHS Global Insight, forecasts that the U.S. and global economies will face a deep recession in 2009 leading to a modest recovery in 2010 and "a more robust recovery in 2011."

Behravesh cites four positive factors that will meliorate the current crisis: falling food and fuel prices, rapid responses from governments to the crisis, unprecedented amounts of liquidity pumped into the system, and the distinct possibility of further fiscal stimulus.

The "full impact on the real economy has yet to be felt,” Behravesh argues. “There is little doubt that the economic outlook will get worse—possibly much worse—before it gets better. Nevertheless, given the recent dramatic reversal in the price of oil and other commodities, the gradual thawing of credit markets, and the large amounts of fiscal and monetary stimulus that have already been set in motion and are likely to be enacted soon, the recovery is likely to be more robust than many pundits are currently predicting."

DETAILS: Global Insight

TIPS FOR HELPING WORKERS COPE

Alexander Crispo, an associate professor of organizational leadership and supervision at Purdue University, offers these tips for workers feeling insecure about the future of their jobs:

1. Imagine a worst-case scenario. What’s the worst thing that could happen to you if you lost your job? Crispo points out that the very worst thing may not be the most probable outcome, but it helps workers focus on finding possible solutions.

2. Never stop learning. Consider attaining a degree or additional training.

3. Read trade publications in your field to stay up to date on relevant trends and issues.

4. Make a list of networking contacts.

5. Keep a journal of what you do well and what interests you.

Crispo emphasizes that not all change is negative. “If your job changes or disappears, it’s an excellent chance to learn something new, discover untapped skills, and meet new people.”

DETAILS: Purdue University

CLICK OF THE MONTH: Tim Prosser, Scrimping on Energy
http://timprosserfuturing.wordpress.com/

Planning consultant Tim Prosser tackles a number of technology, economic, and environmental issues in his Futuring Weblog, but his October 24 post is exceptionally noteworthy for its creative thinking on energy solutions.

Prosser offers “a few ideas ‘off the top of my head’ on how we might address our energy (and water) needs in the future,” including:

* Time and motion-operated light controls.

* Inexpensive, whole-house remote controls.

* Light-colored roofing materials.

* Improved air-exchange ventilators.

* Wall chargers that shut off automatically when not in use.

* Flooring and road surfaces that generate electricity.

The most-effective idea, says Prosser, is education. “Many of the cheapest and most effective ways to reduce energy use require only that people understand their value and how to do them. Every school could teach a real home economics class, focusing on energy economics, that would make perhaps the biggest difference possible in the reduction of our per-capita energy use.”

NEW WORLD FUTURE SOCIETY SERVICE: FUNDAMENTALS OF FORESIGHT

Fundamentals of Foresight is a free series of quick briefings on how you can better prepare for a changing world.

Ten weekly e-mails from Society President Tim Mack explain major futuring tools such as scanning, visioning, scenarios, wild cards, and more.

Sign up today! And invite your colleagues, friends, family, students, and others!

TO SIGN UP send an e-mail to: mailto:jcornish-376589@autocontactor.com

NEWS FROM THE FUTURIST COMMUNITY

* SECOND LONDON FUTURES SYMPOSIUM: The second London Futures Symposium is to be held on November 12, 2008, in Central London. The theme of the day is to be an introduction to futuring, with papers on an scenarios; the future of digital media, gender, and identity; the future of eco-resorts; and more. A special rate of £40 for the day is offered for WFS members. DETAILS: or contact Symposium organizer Stephen Aguilar-Millan at mailto:stephena@eufo.org

October 2008 Vol. 9, No. 10

In This Issue:

* Predicting Future Happiness
* Gaming for Forecasters
* Growing Demand for Cosmetic Surgery Products
* Picking the Next U.S. President
* Click of the Month: CNET Editors' Office

PREDICTING FUTURE HAPPINESS

Some people are naturally optimistic or pessimistic, but how accurately they predict the level of satisfaction they may attain in the future depends on a variety of factors, according to research published in PSYCHOLOGICAL SCIENCE.

In a study led by Brandeis University psychologist Margie Lachman, subjects were surveyed over a nine-year period. In the first survey, in 1995-1996, participants between the ages of 24 and 74 rated their satisfaction with life now, with life 10 years earlier, and with how life may be in another 10 years. They were asked the same questions again in 2004.

Lachman and colleagues discovered that there are age-related differences in how individuals view both the past and the future; those age 65 and older rated the past and present equally satisfying but predicted that the future would be less satisfying. Those under age 65 were more optimistic about the future and believed they would be more satisfied a decade hence.

"These more negative expectations from older adults may be their way of bracing for an uncertain future, a perspective that can serve a protective function in the face of losses and that can have positive consequences if life circumstances turn out to be better than expected," says Lachman.

SOURCE: "Realism and Illusion in Americans' Temporal Views of Their Life Satisfaction," PSYCHOLOGICAL SICENCE (September 2008)

GAMING FOR FORECASTERS

A new research platform for collaboratively imagining futures scenarios through games has been launched by the Institute for the Future, an independent nonprofit research organization based in Palo Alto, California.

The first game to be launched in the new Massively Multiplayer Forecasting platform is the Superstruct Game, which asks players to consider solutions to superthreats such as global food shortages, mass homelessness, and pandemics. Other games will include earthquake simulations and care giving. The goals of the games are to "address real-world problems by harnessing the wisdom of crowds," according to the Institute.

Says IFTF's Howard Rheingold, "Massively multiplayer forecasting games is not just a new tool for forecasting, but also a continuation of IFTF's efforts to make forecasting more public, more inclusive, and more experiential."

Among the IFTF researchers involved in developing the Superstruct Game is Jamais Cascio, whose article on scenarios for the Singularity will appear in the November-December 2008 issue of THE FUTURIST (mailed to subscribers October 5).

SOURCES:
Institute for the Future, Play the Superstruct Game game here.

HANDLING COMPLEXITY WITH INNOVATION AND CREATIVITY

The theme of the World Future Society's next annual meeting, WorldFuture 2009, is Innovation and Creativity in a Complex World. Mark your calendars now! The conference will be held in Chicago at the beautiful Chicago Hilton hotel, July 17-19, 2009.

Among the forward-thinking experts you'll meet are Ian D. Pearson of Futurizon, formerly a futurologist for British Telecommunications; bioethicist Arthur D. Caplan of the University of Pennsylvania; Esther Franklin, executive vice president and director of cultural identities for Starcom MediaVest Group; Edward E. Gordon, president of Imperial Consulting; Joseph R. Greene, former director of ICE, Office of Training and Development; and Mohan K. Tikku, director of the Centre for Future Studies in Gurgaon, India.

GROWING DEMAND FOR COSMETIC SURGERY PRODUCTS

The demand for cosmetic surgery products in the United States is expected to swell by 8.4% per year over the next four years, according to the Freedonia Group.

The trends contributing to this growth include an aging population, an increasingly competitive workforce, and greater social acceptance of cosmetic surgeries and products. Less-invasive surgeries requiring little or no recovery time will see the fastest growth, the company predicts.

Advances in silicone implants and other cosmetic technologies also reassure nervous customer-patients about the safety of procedures. And the introduction of Botox in the 1990s as a quick wrinkle reducer also helped accelerate growth in the injectables sector.

One potential negative factor in the U.S. cosmetic-surgery market is the impact of current economic hard times. Consumers seeking more affordable treatments may increasingly go overseas, limiting growth in the United States, Freedonia's report warns.

SOURCE: "Cosmetic Surgery Products" (2008, 261 pages, $4,600), The Freedonia Group Inc., 767 Beta Drive, Cleveland, Ohio 44143. www.freedoniagroup.com

PICKING THE NEXT U.S. PRESIDENT

Research by two separate futures organizations offer help for Americans going to the polls in November to pick a new president.

In COMPARING CANDIDATES, the Information Technology and Innovation Foundation offers a side-by-side comparison of the technology policy platforms of U.S. presidential candidates senators John McCain (Republican) and Barack Obama (Democrat). "Innovation drives long-term national economic growth and has in fact been responsible for 80% of the growth in the U.S. economy since World War II," according to ITIF. "This places technology and innovation squarely at the center of the issue—the economy—that voters have identified as the most important in the 2008 Presidential election."

DETAILS: ITIF,

And, in PICKING A PRESIDENT: CHARISMA OR COMPETENCE? an article available for download from his Web site, business consultant and futurist Karl Albrecht summarizes a research project that sheds light on the way Americans choose their presidents.

According to Albrecht, the electorate needs a better way to choose its leaders than asking questions like, Does the candidate have sufficient experience?–a weak predictor of success, according to many historians. A better question, he believes, would focus on the necessary traits of character and competence the candidate possesses.

DETAILS

CLICK OF THE MONTH: Live Tech Support at CNET's "Editors' Office"

http://cnettv.cnet.com/editors-office-hours

The popular online consumer electronics site CNET, a division of CBS Interactive, has launched a new live show, "Editor's Office Hours." The live daily 30-minute show will feature a CNET editor offering advice on popular high-tech gadgets, trends, troubleshooting, and more.

"Our editors receive hundreds of e-mails from users who want answers to their burning tech questions, from specific tech product recommendations to learning more about how to get the most of their tech gadgets," says CNET content VP Scott Ard.

The program streams Monday through Friday from 11:30 a.m. to noon Pacific time.

September 2008 Vol. 9, No. 9

In This Issue:
Measles Makes a Comeback
Synthetic Fuels for Combat Aircraft
Brain Exercises to Prevent Dyslexia
Sign Language for Cell Phones
Click of the Month: Office of Digital Humanities
News from the World Future Society

MEASLES MAKES A COMEBACK

Once a childhood scourge and believed long vanquished, measles is making a comeback in the United States, reports the American Red Cross.

Measles is a highly contagious viral disease, but a successful vaccination program led to its elimination in the United States by 2002. Now, a surge in cases during the first half of 2008 is being blamed in part on increases in international travel.

Worldwide, measles kills an estimated 242,000 people a year and 600 children a day. The Measles Initiative--a partnership of the American Red Cross, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the United Nations Foundation, UNICEF, and the World Health Organization--aims to reduce measles deaths globally by 90% over 2000 levels by 2010.

“Measles knows no borders, but can be prevented for less than one dollar per child in a developing country,” according to a Measles Initiative statement. “We must be steadfast in our efforts to reduce measles cases globally. As long as children remain unvaccinated they are at risk.”

DETAILS: American Red Cross

SYNTHETIC FUELS FOR COMBAT AIRCRAFT

U.S. Air Force researchers have developed a promising alternative fuel for the F-15E Strike Eagle. The fuel, a combination of jet fuel and a natural-gas-based synthetic, got its first full test at Robins Air Force Base in Georgia on August 19.

The test demonstrated the safety of the alternative fuel and met the high performance standards for combat aircraft, according to Jeff Braun, director of the Air Force Alternative Fuels Certification office.

The work on new fuels comes from a directive from the Air Force Secretary to move the entire fleet to synthetic fuels by 2011.

DETAILS:United States Air Force

BRAIN EXERCISES TO PREVENT DYSLEXIA

Linguistic problems in preschool children may be a sign of dyslexia, but a new study suggests that early intervention could prevent this common learning disability.

Researchers at the Academy of Finland's Center of Excellence have developed computer–gamelike exercises that utilize phonetics, mathematics, and information technology to help young children overcome their difficulties in processing text.

Children identified as at-risk for developing dyslexia include those whose parents had difficulties in reading and writing, as well as those experiencing “delayed ability to perceive and mentally process the subtleties of a person’s voice ... [and] a sluggishness in naming familiar, visually presented objects,” according to the researchers.

“A fluent ability to read is a prerequisite to be able to understand a demanding piece of text,” says lead researcher Heikki Lyytinen of the University of Jyväskylä. “The best time to start these exercises is the latter part of the preschool age, but it’s not too late even after the children have started school.”

SOURCE: Academy of Finland

SIGN LANGUAGE FOR CELL PHONES

For the hearing-impaired, communicating via cell phone has largely been limited to text messaging. Now, a team of researchers at the University of Washington has developed software that incorporates video so that American Sign Language can be used on mobile phones.

Because video requires much faster transmission speeds than text, the low transmission rates and limited processing power of devices available in the United States have prevented the development of real-time video transmission. The MobileASL project will work on improving video compression, which could facilitate communication on slower services.

“The faster networks are not available everywhere,” says doctoral student Anna Cavender. “They also cost more. We don't think it's fair for someone who's deaf to have to pay more for his or her cell phone than someone who's hearing.”

SOURCE: University of Washington

“GOODSHOP” FOR WFS

The World Future Society needs your help! With gas prices high and the economy in a slump, schools and nonprofits like WFS are having trouble meeting their fundraising goals this year.

In a show of support, more than 700 of your favorite Internet retailers and travel sites, including Amazon, eBay, Target, Apple, and Expedia, have joined forces with GoodShop.com, donating a percentage of all your purchases to your favorite charity at no additional cost to you! More than 63,000 nonprofits and schools are now on board.

It takes just a few seconds to go to www.goodshop.com , select World Future Society, and then click through to your favorite store and shop as usual.

Also, Yahoo! has teamed up with GoodShop's sister site, GoodSearch.com, to donate a penny to your cause every time you search the Web. This is totally free, as the money comes from advertisers.

Please start GoodSearching and GoodShopping for the World Future Society today! And tell 10 friends and colleagues about this opportunity to support a worthy cause. To get started, go to www.goodshop.com

CLICK OF THE MONTH: http://www.neh.gov/ODH/Default.aspx

With so much of humanity spending so much time online, whether working or playing, researching or relaxing, the concept of “digital humanities” should not be considered an oxymoron.

Created in March 2008, the Office of Digital Humanities is an offspring of the U.S. National Endowment for the Humanities and has its own grants-giving function. The office recently announced 22 awards for digital humanities start-up programs and three awards from its Institute for Advanced Topics in the Digital Humanities. Awards went to such projects as the development of a multimedia historical walking tour of Boston and the use of Internet tools to facilitate study and discussion of fifteenth-century Bible scrolls.

“Our primary mission is to help coordinate the NEH's efforts in the area of digital scholarship. As in the sciences, digital technology has changed the way scholars perform their work,” according to the Web site. “It allows new questions to be raised and has radically changed the ways in which materials can be searched, mined, displayed, taught, and analyzed.”

The site includes grant proposal guidelines as well as summaries of project results and other resources.

NEWS FROM THE WORLD FUTURE SOCIETY

* WFS 2008-2009 HIGH SCHOOL ESSAY CONTEST: LOOKING FOR YOUR OWN FUTURE CAREER

The future is a mysterious and often confusing place. The challenge of thinking about the future arises from the ambitious nature of the task. The goal is not just to identify and track emerging job trends, but also to make these trends personally relevant.

The World Future Society and the Future Problem Solvers Program are partnering on a high school essay contest for the coming school year. Entries must be submitted electronically, and the deadline for submitting your entry is March 31, 2009. For contest rules, guidelines, and prizes, check the contest page. Questions, suggestions, or concerns? Contact Society President Tim Mack, tmack@wfs.org

Researching and writing an essay on your future career will advance your ability to clearly communicate ideas and concepts to a larger group. And most importantly, it can improve your ability to think critically about your choices and the consequences of your decisions.

* DISTINGUISHED SERVICE: The World Future Society honored longtime FUTURE SURVEY editor Michael Marien during the closing plenary session of the 2008 annual meeting. Marien, who will step down from his 29-year editorship at the end of this year, called his experience of intellectual freedom “unsupervised play.”

August 2008 Vol. 9, No. 8

In This Issue:
* China's Economy to Surpass U.S.
* European Water Wasters
* More Research, Less Knowledge?
* Click of the Month: Fauxtography
* News from the Futurist Community

CHINA'S ECONOMY TO SURPASS U.S.

The growth of the Chinese economy over the past several years is "no flash in the pan," according to a new report from the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. It will surpass the U.S. economy by 2035 and double by mid-century.

Driven by increasing domestic demand rather than by exports, the Chinese economy will be less susceptible to global discontinuities, according to the report, "China's Rise—Fact and Fiction," by economist Albert Keidel. The Chinese government has also facilitated economic growth by financing infrastructure and making other public investments.

The prospect of a China that is more economically powerful than the United States will have military implications, Keidel warns. Though China's military is currently only a fraction of the size of the U.S. military, policy makers should begin planning today for a very different world in 50 years, the report concludes.

SOURCE:Carnegie Endowment for International Peace "China's Economic Rise—Fact and Fiction"

EUROPEAN WATER WASTERS

A recent poll of western Europeans' shower habits reveals not only wastefulness but also a lack of concern for the gels, shampoos, and other contaminants draining into water systems.

Britons are particularly self-indulgent showerers, with 12% reportedly lingering for 11 to 20 minutes. And of British men surveyed, only 35% say they think about the contaminants, compared with nearly two-thirds of Spanish women saying they care about the stuff going down the drain.

Most European adults shower between two and five minutes, according to the survey by Ipsos MORI for the Royal Society of Chemistry.

"We have to take on board the critical message that water is a precious resource and in the years to come it is going to become increasingly scarce," says Richard Pike, RSC chief executive. "We can save water massively by using less when washing, without compromising hygiene. One should be able to shower thoroughly within a couple of minutes."

SOURCE: Royal Society of Chemistry

MORE RESEARCH, LESS KNOWLEDGE?

New research about research shows that, despite growing access to scholarly papers online, fewer publications are being cited. The result could be a shallower marketplace of ideas.

University of Chicago sociology professor James Evans reports that the Internet gives researchers instant access to a wealth of information in academic journals, but most citations are limited to more-recent articles appearing in the most-prominent journals. The result may be that only a few new ideas get picked up and others fade away before they are properly evaluated.

Online search tools like Google factor in the frequency of hits on individual sites, putting the most-popular pages at the top of search results. Searchers who hit those sites and include the links in their own research thus perpetuate their popularity.

“With science and scholarship increasing online, findings and ideas that don’t receive attention very soon will be forgotten more quickly than ever before,” warns Evans.

SOURCE: National Science Foundation

CLICK OF THE MONTH: FAUXTOGRAPHY http://www.snopes.com/photos/photos.asp

Many information-age skeptics are already familiar with the popular myth-busting site Snopes.com. We bring your attention now to a special section of Snopes devoted to verifying the veracity of images that may or may not have been altered.

“Numerous photographs and videos circulate on the Internet. Some are real. Some are fake. Some are real but have been given false backstories,” according to the site. Fauxtography offers proof (or disproof) for well-circulated images ranging from spectacular traffic accidents to astonishing natural phenomena, such as elaborately striped icebergs.

Photographs about public figures or events are especially worth cautious observation. For instance, former U.S. presidential candidate John Kerry was “seen” twice with political activist and actress Jane Fonda: Sitting at a 1970 antiwar rally (true) and sharing a podium at another rally (false).

Comment: As image and audio editing technologies become easier for more people to use, whether for their own entertainment or to manipulate public perceptions, truth becomes increasingly elusive. Visual information flows fast, so we need to take time for critical thinking.

NEWS FROM THE FUTURIST COMMUNITY

* TWIN OAKS FOUNDER DIES: Kat Kinkade, the founder of Twin Oaks and several other secular, egalitarian, intentional communities, passed away peacefully after a long battle with cancer and was laid to rest on July 4 in the Twin Oaks cemetery. She was 77.

“I'm grateful that I was fortunate enough to have had the opportunity to get to know her over the past few years, and I remember her with fondness and respect,” says FUTURIST editorial assistant Aaron M. Cohen. “She was an amazing woman, to say the least. A true visionary and pioneering spirit—and the primary architect of what is now, after 41 years, the oldest and arguably the most successful secular communal living experiment in U.S. history.”

* BILLIONAIRE, PHILANTHROPIST, INVESTOR IN IDEAS: Sir John Templeton, founder of the Templeton Growth Fund and the Templeton Prize for Progress in Religion, died of pneumonia in the Bahamas. He was 95 years old. The Templeton Prize honors achievements that advance human understanding of the spiritual domain, fearlessly exploring “big questions” like whether science makes belief in God obsolete. The prize has been awarded to individuals ranging from Mother Teresa to physicist Freeman Dyson.

* “BRIC” TOUR, PART 3: Having already visited China and India, Social Technologies is preparing for the third leg of its Futures Expedition through the BRIC countries—Brazil, Russia, India, and China. The expedition to Moscow will be September 25-30, and will explore trends in the robust, petro-dollar-fueled “New Russia.”

* FUTURE ORGANIZATIONS, FOOD CRISIS: The Tomorrow Network is hosting two special events in London this fall. “The Future of Organisations,” on September 8, examines the forces that will change tomorrow’s institutions and in what directions they may evolve. “The Future of the Food Crisis,” November 25, features speakers from Oxfam and Chatham House discussing the current food prices crisis. For more information or to join the Tomorrow Network (free), contact: Richard Worsley, director, the Tomorrow Project, or visit here.

* 2008 STATE OF THE FUTURE: The annual report of the Millennium Project will be available in August and is already generating positive buzz. An overview of the report’s findings appeared in the July 13 edition of THE INDEPENDENT, “We Have Seen the Future—And We May Not Be Doomed.” The report comprises a softcover overview and a CD-ROM containing approximately 6,300 pages of research and analysis. DETAILS: Jerome C. Glenn, director, the Millennium Project, World Federation of UN Associations.

* ANTICIPATING FUTURE SCHOOLS: Sociologist and educator Arthur Shostak’s 33rd book will be published in September by Rowman & Littlefield. ANTICIPATE THE SCHOOL YOU WANT: FUTURIZING K-12 EDUCATION focuses attention on what Shostak calls “the” critical weakness of contemporary public education: its neglect of providing young people with vital futuring skills. The book offers “an affordable, pragmatic, and user-friendly program of school reform—one likely to appeal to students, parents, teachers, and educational administrators alike,” he says.

July 2008 Vol. 9, No. 7

In This Issue:
* World Population to Hit 7 Billion
* Future of the Internet Economy
* A Business Guide to Climate Change
* Feeling Fat vs. Being Fat
* Click of the Month: How You Lead

WORLD POPULATION TO HIT 7 BILLION

Four years from now the world population will reach 7 billion, just 13 years after passing the 6 billion milestone, according to U.S. Census Bureau projections.

The Census Bureau's International Data Base covers 226 countries and other selected geographies and incorporates data on net migration, HIV/AIDS and other factors affecting population-growth projections.

Globally, population growth will slow from 1.2% annually at present to 0.5% by 2050. "However, this growth will be concentrated in less-developed countries," the bureau notes.

By 2050, the proportion of the population over the age of 80 will increase from 1.5% to 5%. In developed countries, that figure will be 10%.

"In order to better project countries with increasing numbers of people in the oldest ages, we are in the process of converting our projections to be done by single years of age up to 100 years and over," the Bureau reports.

SOURCE: U.S. Census Bureau

FUTURE OF THE INTERNET ECONOMY

New policies to promote innovation, enhance security, and improve communications infrastructure globally were among the chief priorities outlined at the recent OECD Ministerial Meeting on the Future of the Internet, held in Seoul and hosted by the Korea Communications Commission.

The meeting brought together key stakeholders in the Internet's future, all with urgent agendas: The technical community called for policies to promote open standards and protocols; civil society urged protections for freedom of expression; and business called for policies that encourage investment.

This confluence of stakeholders enabled the meeting to uncover key new issue areas that will affect future policy making:

* New communications platforms based on new technologies such as fiber optics that may fundamentally change market dynamics and user behavior.

* The accelerating shift from immobile (PC-based) to mobile access.

* The advent of sensor-based networks that not only require massive new infrastructure capacity, but also raise new privacy and security issues.

SOURCE: Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development

A BUSINESS GUIDE TO CLIMATE CHANGE

Businesses can make money, reduce their long-term risks, and discover new opportunities by dealing with climate change issues, according to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. EPA has partnered with a wide range of industry groups to prepare a newly released resource guide for businesses.

Among the partnership programs featured in the guide are:

* Best Workplaces for Commuters, which provides technical assistance and certifies employers based on traffic-reducing and productivity-improving employee benefits.

* Combined Heat and Power Partnership, which assists businesses in establishing cogeneration systems.

* Waste Wise, which helps companies set goals and implement plans to reduce solid municipal waste.

Dozens of other partnerships may be searched by sector, including agriculture, transportation, product labeling, energy, waste, pollution prevention, water, technology, regulation, and more.

SOURCE: U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Partnership Programs

FEELING FAT VS. BEING FAT

Adolescents who believe themselves to be overweight--whether or not they are--are likely to have a lower quality of life than those who feel their weight is just right--whether or not it is.

According to a study in the German medical journal DEUTSCHES AERZTEBLATT, the proportion of adolescents who think they are overweight has been increasing more rapidly than the proportion of those who really are overweight.

Society puts pressure on youngsters to be thin, and those who believe they do not meet that ideal unnecessarily forfeit a great deal of quality of life, according to the researchers. But those who are in fact obese and do not see themselves as such may not be susceptible to weight-reduction interventions that would improve their health.

"A realistic body image on the part of obese adolescents is a prerequisite for their acceptance of interventions," the researchers conclude. "The marked deterioration in quality of life resulting from perceived obesity, even for young people of normal weight, illustrates the complexity of the struggle against obesity."

SOURCE: "Perceived or True Obesity: Which Causes More Suffering in Adolescents?"

CLICK OF THE MONTH: HOW YOU LEAD: http://www.howyoulead.org/
HOW YOU LEAD:

The Center for Public Leadership at Harvard University's John F. Kennedy School of Government teamed with the Ken Blanchard Companies in May to identify the key questions we should be asking those who wish to lead us.

Though the questions are specifically geared toward the U.S. presidential candidates, the issues are appropriate for anyone seeking to become a leader or to improve his or her leadership abilities. Among the leadership-probing questions suggested:

* What are your five core values, and how will they shape how you lead?

* What experiences have helped you deeply understand the mind-set and values of other cultures?

* Can you share some examples of when you were a catalyst who brought groups with polarized opinions together so that all voices were at the table?

* Tell us about a time when your judgment was tested in crisis. What do you want us to appreciate about your judgment?

* How will you create an environment for innovation within your leadership team?

The site also invites visitors to contribute their own leadership questions.

June 2008 Vol. 9, No. 6

In This Issue:
Soccer-Playing Nanobots
Returning Jail Inmates to Society
Great Salt Lake Laboratory
Click of the Month: Keck Futures Initiative
What's next in THE FUTURIST

SOCCER-PLAYING NANOBOTS

The skill, dexterity, and raw athleticism of soccer players make them an excellent model to test the prowess of robots in RoboCup, an annual robot-soccer competition sponsored by the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST). The game has shrunk to nano-scale levels, as this year’s RoboCup, open to the public, features the second annual nanosoccer games.

In an arena the size of a microchip, with "television" coverage from optical microscopes, three student teams will vie in such soccer drills as the two-millimeter dash, a slalom race between polymer posts, and nanoball-handling exercises. The competitors are from Carnegie Mellon University and the U.S. Naval Academy in the United States and the University of Waterloo in Canada.

The goal of the competition is to foster innovation in artificial intelligence and intelligent robotics. RoboCup will be held May 25 to 27 at Carnegie Mellon in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. An upcoming U.S. Open nanosoccer competition will be a precursor to the first official Nanogram League nanosoccer competition at the 2009 RoboCup in Austria.

DETAILS:NIST

RETURNING JAIL INMATES TO SOCIETY

Local jails in the United States handle 9 million individuals a year, far more than state and federal prisons handle, including many repeat offenders. Preparing them to return to their communities successfully--and to reduce recidivism--is a challenge for which most jails have limited resources to meet. A new report from the Urban Institute offers help for improving that jail-to-community transition.

Unlike prisons and penitentiaries, jails have high population turnover, with 81% of inmates incarcerated for less than a month and only 4% staying longer than six months. While this means less time that inmates are separated from families and communities, it also means less time for jails to help them overcome the problems that brought them to prison in the first place, such as drug or alcohol addiction or lack of education.

The solution, according to the Urban Institute's report, is to strengthen the partnerships between jails and their communities, such as bringing in health providers to treat the chronically ill and encouraging workforce development agencies to offer employment services and help in dealing with red tape.

"Imagine the headway against the cycle of crime and incarceration if we shifted from just processing people locally to linking ex-inmates to services and programs that already exist in the community," says Arthur Wallenstein, director of the Montgomery County (Maryland) Department of Correction and Rehabilitation, one of the reports' sponsors.

SOURCE: The Urban Institute
DOWNLOAD "Life after Lockup: Improving Reentry from Jail to the Community" by Amy L. Solomon et al.

GREAT SALT LAKE LABORATORY

The extreme, hypersaline ecosystem of the Great Salt Lake is being turned into a biology and chemistry laboratory, thanks to the creation of the Great Salt Lake Institute at Westminster College in Utah.

An ancient inland sea, Great Salt Lake serves human and ecological needs: It is a critical site for migratory birds as well as an important resource for industry and recreation, yet it has received little academic attention, according to director Bonnie Baxter, an associate professor of biology at Westminster.

The Institute will promote K-12 science and environmental education as well as multidisciplinary collaborative research. One current project, funded by the U.S. Department of Energy Joint Genome Institute, will involve sequencing the genes of the lake directly from water samples.

DETAILS: Great Salt Lake Institute.

CLICK OF THE MONTH:
KECK FUTURES INITIATIVE

The goal of the National Academies' five-year-old Keck Futures Initiative is to promote interdisciplinary research and enhanced communication among researchers, the organizations that fund them, the universities that host them, and the communities they serve.

The 15 recipients splitting $1 million in research grants this year will focus on improving human health and life-span, with research topics ranging from the comparative cellular biology of aging to the use of robotics in diagnostics.

The Futures Initiative's competitive grants are intended to "provide researchers an opportunity to explore new research areas, learn new skills, and/or collaborate across disciplines, in cases where this would not otherwise be possible." The Initiative also honors journalists for communicating topics in science, engineering, medicine, and other subjects to the general public.

Coming up in the July-August issue of THE FUTURIST:

* "The 21st-Century Writer" (cover story): The Internet is forcing traditional print publishers to innovate or perish. The same might be true of the written word itself. FUTURIST Senior Editor Patrick Tucker gleans insights from cutting-edge industry thinkers, including publishing magnate and tech guru Tim O’Reilly, on how future authors and publishers need to adapt.

Plus:

* "Consumer Trends in Three Different 'Worlds'" by Andy Hines

* "Cybercrime in the Year 2025" by Gene Stephens

* "Futurizing Business Education" by Paul Bracken

* "Tribute to Sir Arthur C. Clarke" by José Luis Cordeiro

And coming up in the fall:

* "Why You Are Here": Last month we invited you to tell us a brief story about why you began thinking seriously about the future. Our goal was to share your views and experiences with others, such as prospective members. We were so impressed with your responses that we have chosen several to publish in THE FUTURIST. Visit www.wfs.org for a preview. There's still time to submit your own story to FUTURIST UPDATE’s editor, Cindy Wagner, mailto:cwagner@wfs.org, or post a comment at Hosaa's Blog: http://hosaasblog.blogspot.com/2008/04/futurists-why-are-you-here.html

May 2008 Vol. 9, No. 5

In This Issue:
New Nanotech Products Hit the Market
Will Super-Bugs Outlast Us?
Solar Energy May Be Competitive in 10 Years
Bridging the Digital Divide
Editor's Query: Why Are You Here?
Click of the Month: Health Care Innovations Exchange
News from the Futurist Community

NEW NANO PRODUCTS HIT THE MARKET

Nanotechnology is churning out new consumer products at a rate of three or four a week, according to the Project on Emerging Nanotechnologies.

There are now more than 600 nanoproducts in the project's registry, including nanowhitening toothpaste (containing calcium peroxide nanoparticles), automotive parts using nanocomposites, and even golf clubs made with nanotech-derived materials.

The biggest category for nanoproducts is health and fitness items, such as cosmetics and sunscreens, which represent 60% of the products in the inventory. Sales of products incorporating nanotechnology reached an estimated $88 billion in 2007 and could reach $2.6 trillion by 2014, according to Lux Research.

"Public perceptions about risks—real and perceived—can have large economic consequences," says David Rejeski, the project director. "How consumers respond to these early products in food, electronics, health care, clothing, and cars is a litmus test for broader market acceptance of nanotechnologies in the future."

SOURCE: www.wilsoncenter.org/nano

WILL SUPER-BUGS OUTLAST US?

Bacteria may eventually prove to be Earth's greatest evolutionary success story. While humans scramble to arm themselves with new antibiotic weapons to fight deadly microbes, we are likely to lose the war in the long run, according to Lester A. Mitscher, a University Distinguished Professor of Medicinal Chemistry at the University of Kansas, Lawrence.

Miracle drugs like penicillin have saved countless lives, especially during World War II, but the downside is that, because these antibiotics were deemed so safe and effective, they were overprescribed, giving the target microbes the opportunity to evolve their way around the weapons aimed at them, Mitscher notes in the JOURNAL OF NATURAL PRODUCTS.

Drug-resistant "super-bugs" like MRSA (Methacillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus) are making headlines as hospitals become breeding grounds and patients become all-too-available victims.

Mitscher urges drug corporations to develop antibiotics that not only kill the immediate microbial enemies, but also inhibit their ability to mutate. This would allow patients' own immune systems to help battle infections. Unfortunately, he notes, the economics of the pharmaceutical industry has slowed the pace of antibiotic discovery that could achieve these goals.


University of Kansas.

SOLAR ENERGY MAY BE COMPETITIVE IN 10 YEARS

Solar energy technologies need about a decade more of research and development investment to become an economically competitive alternative to petroleum, according to Caltech chemistry professor Harry Gray.

"Solar can potentially provide all the electricity and fuel we need to power the planet," Gray says. "The holy grail of solar research is to use sunlight efficiently and directly to 'split' water into its elemental constituents—hydrogen and oxygen—and then use the hydrogen as a clean fuel."

The biggest challenge to meeting this goal is reducing costs enough so that shifting away from fossil fuels to renewable sources of electricity makes economic sense. The breakthrough will be when the cost of photovoltaic energy can be reduced to about 10 cents per kilowatt-hour, Gray told a recent meeting of the American Chemical Society.

SOURCE: American Chemical Society.

BRIDGING THE DIGITAL DIVIDE

Americans with low income and education levels are less likely to have Internet access than their wealthier, better-educated counterparts, but they spend more time online when they do have access.

Concerns about an economic and digital underclass have led activists to urge the government to subsidize Internet access for poor families; research led by Jeff Prince, assistant professor of applied economics and management at Cornell University, suggests that there may be social and economic benefits to such a policy.

Like affluent Internet users, low-income families use the Internet for researching products they may purchase, gathering health information, and reading the news. However, the lower-income users spend more time communicating (e-mail, chat) and gaming.

"From the perspective of an economist, some of these activities benefit not only those partaking in them, but other members of society as well, making it possibly in the government's interest to encourage them," says Prince. "For sure they may use it for things we don't care about, like chat and games, but we also predict that a decent proportion would use it for things we might think socially beneficial. We find some argument for a subsidy."

SOURCE:
Cornell University

EDITOR'S QUERY: WHY ARE YOU HERE?

When I started working at the World Future Society, one of the first authors I worked with was Lester Brown, founder of the Worldwatch Institute and now president of the Earth Policy Institute. He wrote eloquently and urgently in THE FUTURIST about the need to make more sustainable choices in our lifestyles.

I took what Brown wrote to heart when I decided to move to an apartment building that was within walking distance of the office. I do own a car, but I drive less than 4,000 miles a year. I feel that this choice was a healthy one for myself and is in some small way contributing to a cleaner future environment—at least in my own neighborhood.

We at the World Future Society are looking for other stories about how the study of the future, membership in the Society, or participation at a conference made a difference. In short, why are you here, thinking about the future? Why does the future matter?

Tell us (in about 500 words or fewer) either a personal story or an anecdote out of the history of futuring that inspired you to take a deeper and more active interest in the future—a story to help others see the future with new eyes.

This isn't a contest. We simply believe that stories told by the voices of experience will help show young people and other potential members exactly why thinking about the future is so vital to individuals and to the world right now.

post a comment.

CLICK OF THE MONTH:HEALTH CARE INNOVATIONS EXCHANGE

Sharing information, techniques, and inspiration is vital to the improvement of professional services. That is the philosophy behind the U.S. Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality's online repository for health-care innovations.

Examples of innovations described on the new exchange:

* Administrators for the Iowa Department of Public Health used tools and resources developed by the Network for the Improvement of Addiction Treatment to overhaul the department's substance-abuse services.

* An intensive-care unit team shares its communications protocol for connecting staff, patients, and family members in setting daily goals for patients' care and treatment. The regular communication helps ensure progress toward meeting treatment goals.

* A nursing-home care model, known as the "Wellspring Model," is described, showing how nursing homes can come together in a learning collaborative to exchange staff performance data and conduct group training to enhance resident care.

An excellent resource for health-care providers, the site allows registered viewers to read articles and expert commentaries, sign up for the e-mail newsletter, browse the Innovations Exchange by subject, and participate in topic-specific discussions.

NEWS FROM THE FUTURIST COMMUNITY

* EXPLORING THE FUTURE COURSE: FTR–100 Exploring the Future is three-credit-hour course offering a cross-disciplinary investigation of the future in a changing world. The course is offered at Anne Arundel Community College in Maryland, July 7 through August 12. Section 870 of the course is online, and Section 840 is a "hybrid" course, led by Stephen F. Steele, incorporating participation in the World Future Society's annual meeting in Washington, D.C., and online modules before and after the meeting. (Conference registration and travel/lodging arrangements are separate from tuition and are the registrant's responsibility.) DETAILS and REGISTRATION.

* THE WAY WE WILL BE 50 YEARS FROM TODAY: This new book edited by longtime 60 MINUTES anchor Mike Wallace is a collection of essays by "60 of the World's Greatest Minds" who "Share Their Visions of the Next Half-Century." Among the diverse and esteemed contributors are Internet "father" Vint Cerf, children's rights advocate Marion Wright Edelman, geneticist and Human Genome Project leader Francis S. Collins, and World Future Society President Timothy C. Mack. The just-released book, published by Thomas Nelson, is available for $24.99. DETAILS: www.mikewallacebook.com/

April 2008 Vol. 9, No. 4

In This Issue:
Manufacturing's Top Challenges
Hurricanes Hitting Harder Financially
Resurgence of Anti-Semitism
Salt Found on Mars, Methane Beyond
Click of the Month: Institute for Emerging Issues
News from the Futurist Community

MANUFACTURING'S TOP CHALLENGES

Capturing the power of nanotech, integrating information technology throughout manufacturing processes, and developing hydrogen energy technologies are the three top priorities for research and development in manufacturing, according to a report from a U.S. government interagency working group.

Selection of these interrelated priorities will help industry focus resources on meeting future needs, such as job creation, transforming research into competitive products, and ensuring a cleaner environment.

Nanotechnologies are expected to be a "critical driver of future economic growth, affecting potentially every industry from aerospace and energy to health care and agriculture," according to the report. The emphasis on hydrogen energy R&D, such as developing affordable and reliable fuel cells, is intended to help ensure a more secure energy future.

SOURCE: Interagency Working Group on Manufacturing R&D report, MANUFACTURING THE FUTURE

HURRICANES HITTING HARDER FINANCIALLY

If the hurricane that hit Miami in 1926 were to hit the city now, it would cause up to $157 billion in damages. (By comparison, Hurricane Katrina caused $81 billion in damage in 2005.)

According to a new report from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the economic costs of hurricanes have been doubling every 10 to 15 years in the United States, not because the storms are stronger but because hurricane-prone coastlines have seen increased development of more valuable properties.

Researcher Chris Landsea claims that while global warming and climate change may be blamed for many environmental problems, there is no evidence that it has caused increased destruction along U.S. coasts. Rather, he says, the problem with hurricane destruction is the higher costs of homes and businesses built in hurricanes' paths.

This view is not shared by the majority of climate scientists. In September of 2005, Peter Webster of Georgia Tech and Greg Holland of the National Center for Atmospheric Research published a paper in the journal Science showing that while the total number of hurricanes had remained the same over the past 30 years, the number of more intense category 4 and 5 hurricanes had increased by as much as 80%. Other climate researchers such as Kerry Emmanuel of MIT agree that the upward trend in more category 4 and 5 hurricanes is clear but put the increase at closer to 50%.

The NOAA report makes a somewhat obvious and uncontroversial recommendation: People shouldn't live where hurricanes are likely to strike. "Unless action is taken to address the growing concentration of people and property in coastal hurricane areas, the damage will increase by a great deal as more people and infrastructure inhabit these coastal locations," says Landsea.

Source: NOAA,

RESURGENCE OF ANTI-SEMITISM

A U.S. State Department report to Congress warns of an upsurge in anti-Semitism, a trend that has been observed by governments and NGOs worldwide. The report documents incidents of violence, desecration of property, and intimidation toward Jews.

In 2006, countries reporting significant increases in anti-Semitic incidents and expressions included Argentina (35% more than in 2005), Australia (32.5%), and the United Kingdom (31%). Countries where anti-Semitism appears to have become official state policy include Iran, Syria, Belarus, Venezuela, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt, the report charges.

Newer forms of anti-Semitic expression are also emerging, such as criticism of Zionism and Israeli policy that, intentionally or unintentionally, results in promoting prejudice against all Jews and demonizing Israel. "Anti-Semitism couched as criticism of Zionism or Israel often escapes condemnation since it can be more subtle than traditional forms of anti-Semitism," the report notes.

The report calls on world governments to publicly condemn all forms of anti-Semitism and to promote tolerance in schools and in society at large. Civic and religious organizations are encouraged to support awareness, education, and dialogue to promote tolerance and oppose discrimination.

SOURCE: U.S. Department of State , Contemporary Global Anti-Semitism" (PDF)

SALT FOUND ON MARS, METHANE BEYOND

Astronomers have detected methane in the atmosphere of a planet orbiting the Jupiter-sized star HD 189733b in the constellation Vulpecula (Little Fox). This first discovery of an organic molecule outside our solar system strengthens hope for finding extraterrestrial life.

The discovery was made by a team led by Mark Swain of NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory using observations made with the Hubble Space Telescope's Near Infrared Camera and Multi-Object Spectrometer.

The ability to detect organic molecules outside our solar system is "a crucial stepping stone to eventually characterizing prebiotic molecules on planets where life could exist," says Swain.

Closer to home, salt on Mars has been detected by a University of Hawaii-led team using data from NASA's Mars Odyssey orbiter. The salt deposits indicate where water may have been abundant and therefore where ancient life may have existed. Salt helps preserve organic material; bacteria have been revived from salt deposits on Earth after millions of years.

SOURCES: NASA/ESA Hubble Space Telescope, University of Hawaii-Manoa.

CLICK OF THE MONTH: INSTITUTE FOR EMERGING ISSUES http://www.ncsu.edu/iei

Describing itself as not just a think tank, but a "think-and-do" tank, North Carolina State University's interactive Institute for Emerging Issues explores significant areas impacting global, local, and personal futures, such as realizing opportunities in energy challenges and transforming higher education.

At the site, visitors may listen to audio presentations from previous forums, download full reports, participate in surveys on the issues at hand, and subscribe to the Institute's monthly newsletter.

Though the emphasis is on North Carolina's future, the Institute's use of participatory tools such as the ongoing surveys offers a model for global thinkers and doers.

NEWS FROM THE FUTURIST COMMUNITY

* SEOUL DIGITAL FORUM: Korean broadcasting network SBS presents the Seoul Digital Forum 2008, to be held May 6-8 at the Sheraton Grande Walkerhill Hotel in Seoul, Korea. This international conference will explore the progress of the digital revolution and collaborate in shaping our future. Under the main theme IMAGINATION: Explore T.I.M.E., Space, and Beyond, Seoul Digital Forum 2008 will scrutinize the power of imagination that inspires change and evolution in areas such as technology, information, media, entertainment, and space to push the human race beyond. DETAILS:

* DESIGNING GLOBAL ENERGY SOLUTIONS: The annual Design Science Lab, a collaboration of BigPictureSmallWorld and the Buckminster Fuller Institute, is being held June 16-23 in New York at the UN and UN International School. This year's program will focus on the global energy situation. The program will also feature an online Extension to the Lab that will run June 24 through August 29. Medard Gabel will facilitate both the New York and online Labs. DETAILS: mailto:info@bigpicturesmallworld.com

* FINLAND FUTURES CALL FOR PAPERS: Finland Futures Research Centre announces a First Call for Papers and Posters for two upcoming conferences: October 1-3, 2008: Grasping the Future - A Challenge for Learning and Innovation (Helsinki, Finland) and May 28-29, 2009: Future of the Consumer Society (Tampere, Finland). DETAILS:

* GOT BLOG? If you have a future-oriented blog or newsletter and would like to sponsor a link to it in the World Future Society's proposed Futurist Community Newsletter, please contact business manager Jeff Cornish, mailto:jcornish@wfs.org, for details.

In the meantime, you are encouraged to link to THE FUTURIST magazine's MySpace and Facebook pages, maintained by communications director Patrick Tucker, mailto:ptucker@wfs.org. And you are also invited to visit the not-very-future-oriented personal blog of your humble editor at http://hosaasblog.blogspot.com

March 2008 Vol. 9, No. 3

In This Issue:
Recession-Proof Industries
Infertility May Become More Common
Engineering's Grand Challenges
Goal-Driven Toddlers
News from the Futurist Community
News From WFS

RECESSION-PROOF INDUSTRIES

As economists and other pundits dance around the "R" word, workers and investors worried about their future security have several directions in which to look for protection from a potential recession in the United States, according to workplace trend watchers Challenger, Gray & Christmas Inc.

Among the most recession-proof industries offering new job and investment opportunities are energy, security, health care, and education, according to the firm. Meanwhile, retail and manufacturing industries are more vulnerable. In places such as Michigan, where auto manufacturing appears to be on the skids, new jobs are likely to be created by wind turbine and solar manufacturing projects.

SOURCE: Challenger, Gray & Christmas Inc.

INFERTILITY MAY BECOME COMMON

Future generations already have a problem: There may be fewer of them, as infertility becomes common, according to recent research published in the BRITISH MEDICAL JOURNAL.

In affluent countries, infertility affects approximately 15% of couples trying to conceive; up to 6% of children are conceived through assisted reproductive technologies in some countries.

A complex array of factors underlie fertility and fecundity, from social and economic choices that reduce the number of children desired to environmental risk factors that impair childbearing, such as those associated with reduced sperm counts in young men (the endocrine-disruption hypothesis). More direct markers of fecundity trends are urgently needed in order to identify public-health concerns, the researchers warn.

SOURCE:
BRITISH MEDICAL JOURNAL (16 February 2008).

ENGINEERING'S GRAND CHALLENGES

How can future engineers make the world a better place? The U.S. National Academies have issued a set of twenty-first-century challenges designed to inspire engineering students toward creative problem solving and "game changing" projects that could dramatically improve life. Among the Grand Challenges are:

* Make solar energy affordable.
* Provide access to clean water.
* Restore and improve urban infrastructure.
* Engineer better medicines.
* Reverse-engineer the brain.
* Prevent nuclear terror.
* Secure cyberspace.
* Advance personalized learning.

"Tremendous advances in quality of life have come from improved technology in such areas as farming and manufacturing," says Google co-founder Larry Page, a member of the Challenges committee. "If we focus our effort on the important grand challenges of our age, we can hugely improve the future."

SOURCE: http://www.engineeringchallenges.org.

GOAL-DRIVEN TODDLERS

Children learn to act toward achieving specific goals at about the age of 3, basing their behaviors on expected, valued outcomes, according to researchers at the University of Cambridge. This developmental skill is what sets the 3-year-olds apart from kids in "the terrible twos"--the age at which toddlers' inability to get what they want causes sleepless nights for parents.

The experiment tested the behaviors of children ages 18 months to 4 years old who were trained to touch a red or a green butterfly icon on a computer display in order to see different cartoon clips. One set of cartoons was repeated frequently in order to bore the children and be a less-valued outcome of touching the correct butterfly icon. The researchers found that at age 3 the children were better able than the younger kids to choose the right butterfly for the more-interesting cartoons, even when the cartoons weren't immediately shown.

Goal-directed behavior is not something we are born with, but something we develop as we grow up. The researchers conclude: "This capacity [to internalize one's control over the environment] is an important component of becoming a fully autonomous intentional agent."

SOURCE:
American Psychological Association

Sign up for your own free subscription delivered directly to you inbox at http://www.wfs.org/futuristupdate.htm

NEWS FROM THE FUTURIST COMMUNITY

* NOMINATE A TECHNOLOGY INNOVATOR: The Tech Museum Awards is calling for nominations of innovators--individuals or organizations--whose use of technology has benefited humanity. Deadline for nominations is March 24.

* TECHNOLOGY IN EDUCATION: TechEd 2008, a program of the Community College Foundation, will be held April 13-16 at the Ontario (California) Convention Center. The conference will bring together more than 3,500 educators and administrators from around the world to focus on digital media, virtual learning, social networking, instructional technology, and more.

* LONDON FUTURES SYMPOSIUM, to be held April 18 at London South Bank University's Keyworth Centre, will cover the cashless society, the disappearance of the nation-state, the future of work and management, and more. World Future Society members are offered a generously discounted registration fee of ₤60.

* FORESIGHT CANADA CONFERENCE AND WORKSHOPS: Foresight Canada is hosting a conference on strategic foresight in Calgary, April 30 to May 2, titled Seeing and Shaping Tomorrow. Two preconference professional training workshops will also be held: Strategic Foresight (April 28-30) and Complexity and Systems Thinking (April 30). Content. For information about the conference programs, contact Ruben Nelson; for information about registering, contact registration.

* MAGDA CORDELL McHALE: We were saddened to learn of the death on February 21 of Magda Cordell McHale, a visionary architect and pioneering futurist, in Buffalo, New York, where she had taught at the School of Architecture and Planning. She was 87 years old. With her late husband, John McHale, Magda was a longtime supporter of the World Future Society, generously contributing her inspiring ideas to its publications and conference programs.

Futures scholar James Dator of the University of Hawaii described Magda as "flamboyant, gruff, and always stylishly dressed" and as a "superb artist." With her husband, she "produced excellent textual/visual presentations of trends, emerging issues, and new and interconnected ideas," Dator wrote in a post to the Association of Professional Futurists. "They were always tirelessly searching for something 'new,' and excelled in seeing, early on, patterns that most of us did not see until much later, presenting them to us in very memorable ways."

Another moving tribute to Magda McHale appears on the blog of architect and graphic designer Alex Bitterman.

WFS NEWS

* WORLDFUTURE 2008: SEEING THE FUTURE THROUGH NEW EYES, the World Future Society's annual meeting, will be held July 26-28 in Washington, D.C. The preliminary program will soon be mailed to all Society members. LEARN MORE or REGISTER BY FEBRUARY 29 and save $150 off the on-site registration fee.

* BEST FUTURES BOOKS OF 2007: FUTURE SURVEY editor Michael Marien has selected the 30 most authoritative, original, and important future-oriented books of the past year. Among his picks are VITAL SIGNS 2007-2008 by the Worldwatch Institute; 2007 STATE OF THE FUTURE by Jerome C. Glenn and Theodore J. Gordon; THE BOTTOM BILLION by Paul Collier; THE NEXT CATASTROPHE by Charles Perrow; A BILL OF RIGHTS FOR 21st CENTURY AMERICA by Joseph F. Coates; and THINKING ABOUT THE FUTURE by Andy Hines and Peter Bishop. Visit FUTURE SURVEY online to see the entire list.

* PRESIDENT'S BLOG NOTES INCREASING INTERACTIVITY: WFS President Tim Mack's latest blog offers some figures and reflections on Internet culture and activity.

* FUTURES LEARNING SECTION is seeking participants engaged in all forms of futures learning to help develop new tools for educators and learners. Planning is now under way for a major Educational Summit at the Society's 2008 conference in Washington, D.C.

February 2008 Vol. 9, No. 2

In This Issue:
Bionic Eyes
Cosmic Collision Ahead
U.S. Failing to Prevent Preventable Deaths
Click of the Month: Legacy Letter Project
News from the Futurist Community

BIONIC EYES

We may soon be seeing our world through electronic eyes, and they'll be as easy to use as popping in a contact lens.

A bionic display consisting of electronic circuits and lights imprinted on a contact lens would allow wearers to see electronic information superimposed over their view of the world in front of them. Potential applications include virtual reality enhancements for video gamers and heads-up displays for pilots and drivers.

One key challenge was to find materials that are safe for use in the body, according to Babak Parviz, assistant professor of electrical engineering at the University of Washington, where the device is being developed. Because the electronic circuits can be built from layers of metals only a few nanometers thick, they can be printed on the delicate, biologically compatible plastic materials used for contact lenses.

Though the prototype device does not correct the user's vision, future models will do so. Other enhancements may include the addition of wireless communication powered by radio frequency and embedded solar cells.

DETAILS: University of Washington

COSMIC COLLISION AHEAD

A massive gas cloud is hurtling toward the Milky Way at a speed of 150 miles per second, set to strike our galaxy at about a 45-degree angle. Though the light show will be spectacular, it's still 8,000 light-years away, so don't look for it for about another 40 million years.

The leading-edge of the massive Smith's Cloud, named for its 1963 discoverer, is already interacting with the Milky Way's gases, and when it hits, the energy will likely ignite a rush of new star formations, according to Felix J. Lockman of the National Radio Astronomy Observatory (NRAO) in Socorro, New Mexico.

"Many of those stars will be very massive, rushing through their lives very quickly and exploding as supernovae," says Lockman. "Over a few million years, it'll look like a celestial New Year's celebration, with huge firecrackers going of in that region of the galaxy."

The study of the stars has enabled humanity to navigate, tell time, and plan the future; astronomy has also advanced the development of new imaging technologies. The NRAO is operated by Associated Universities Inc., which is now forming a Committee on the Future of U.S. Radio Astronomy aimed "to determine radio astronomy's role in answering fundamental questions in astronomy as an integral part of a broad scientific agenda."

DETAILS: National Radio Astronomy Observatory

U.S. PROGRESS SLOWS IN PREVENTING PREVENTABLE DEATHS

The United States ranks last among 19 industrialized nations on preventing deaths by assuring access to effective health care, report researchers at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine.

More than 100,000 lives per year could be spared if U.S. performance equaled the top-ranked countries on effective health-care measures: France, Japan, and Australia.

All other nations showed significant improvements in preventing premature deaths between 1997-98 and 2002-03, while progress in the United States slowed. One possible explanation is an increase in the uninsured populations, according to authors of the study published in the journal HEALTH AFFAIRS.

"The fact that other countries are reducing these preventable deaths more rapidly, yet spending far less, indicates that policy, goals, and efforts to improve health systems make a difference," notes Cathy Schoen, senior vice president of the Commonwealth Fund, which supported the study.

SOURCE: The Commonwealth Fund

CLICKS OF THE MONTH: FUTURISTS GO TO THE MOVIES

For a big-screen view of the future that peeks beyond the action-packed dystopias of sci-fi blockbusters, here are two thought-provoking documentaries recently brought to our attention.

* THE WORLD WITHOUT US evisions what the world would be like if a fictional presidential candidate named Turner succeeded in removing U.S. troops from the international scene. The film debates and explores the consequences of U.S. isolationism, with expert interviewees such as British historian Niall Ferguson and former U.S. ambassador James Lilley.

"This documentary struck me because it took in expert and common opinions from people of all different races, cultures, and positions," says WFS member Nathan Smythe, who sent us the tip about THE WORLD WITHOUT US. "It had challenging questions, and it was still entertaining."

*THE LINGUISTS follows the work of researchers studying the global trend of language extinction, with an average of one language disappearing every two weeks.

In their frequently risky adventures, the scientists explore the cultural and political pressures contributing to language loss in vulnerable indigenous communities. The documentary was funded in part by the National Science Foundation and premiered at the famed Sundance Film Festival on January 18.

NEWS FROM THE FUTURIST COMMUNITY

* CALL FOR PARTICIPATION: The World Futures Studies Federation's 20th World Conference, Transitions: Encouraging Emerging Worlds, will be held June 30-July 3 in Trollhätten, Sweden. Deadline for submitting an abstract of your paper or presentation is January 31. DETAILS: Contact Marianne Rugård Järvstråt at secretariat@wfsf.org or gittemarianne@tele2.se.

* EXPLORING THE "BRIC" NATIONS: Social Technologies' new Futures Expeditions series will explore the economies of Brazil, Russia, India, and China. The tours are led by futurist consultants and local market experts to provide insights tailored to clients' needs. The first trip is to Hyderabad, India, February 28 through March 4. DETAILS: info@socialtechnologies.com

* EUROPEAN FUTURISTS CONFERENCE HIGHLIGHTS: Videos, slides, and visual minutes of the November 2007 European Futurists Conference are now available. Learn about future business models, brain research, social innovation, mobility trends, and much more.

January 2008 Vol. 9, No. 1

In This Issue:
Robots for Handicapped Babies
Do Fish Farms Imperil Wild Salmon?
Trends in Consumer Behavior
Click of the Month: Legacy Letter Project
News from the Futurist Community

ROBOTS FOR HANDICAPPED BABIES

Babies need to move around independently and explore their environments. Not doing so can impair their cognitive development.

Infants with Down syndrome or other handicaps need extra help to explore their worlds, and at present there are no power-assisted wheelchairs for youngsters under the age of five or six, long after the age of rapid brain development.

So the University of Delaware has developed prototype driving robots for babies. James C. Galloway, associate professor of physical therapy, and Sunil Agrawal, professor of mechanical engineering, have equipped the robots with environmental sensors and safety features that will help babies explore without crashing into pets, furniture, or other obstacles. The robot's simple joystick control is easy enough for infants as young as seven months to operate.

The researchers' goal is to place such robots in all learning centers where children have special needs. "It was a special feeling to see a potential solution to a really serious health-care gap for young kids,"

says Galloway. "There was and still is a special tingle when we think of the not so distant future."

SOURCE: University of Delaware

DO FISH FARMS IMPERIL WILD SALMON?

Parasitic lice infections in salmon farms may be driving a dramatic decline in wild salmon populations. According to a study by the University of Alberta, affected pink salmon populations may see a 99% collapse in another four years if the infestation continues.

Wild salmon are affected by the fish farm infestations because they are exposed to the parasites on their way through a gauntlet of open-net fish farms before they reach the sea; adult salmon can survive a small number of lice but the juveniles cannot.

"Salmon farming breaks a natural law," says the study's co-author, Alexandra Morton. "In the natural system, the youngest salmon are not exposed to sea lice because the adult salmon that carry the parasite are offshore. But fish farms cause a deadly collision between the vulnerable young salmon and sea lice."

Temporarily shutting down the fish farms along the primary salmon migratory routes, thus eliminating the exposure of wild salmon to the lice, could be one solution.

SOURCE: University of Alberta

TRENDS IN CONSUMER BEHAVIOR

Consumption in the future will be more cooperative, predicts advertising giant J. Walter Thompson. Extending the "time-share" model for owning a vacation home, consumers will increasingly accept fractional ownership of art work, cars, and other high-end products, according to JWT's "10 Trends for 2008" report.

More trends under JWT's scrutiny:

* As the genetic links are identified for diseases such as rheumatoid arthritis and high blood pressure, look for commercial genetic testing services promoted alongside pharmaceutical ads.

* Consumers are rethinking "instant gratification" and choosing to hold off buying mass merchandise in favor of custom made or one-of-a-kind products and services.

* Demographic "pigeonholing" will become less useful to marketers, as consumers change their behaviors--such as when they marry or attend school and for how long--in less predictable ways. Marketers and others will focus on behavioral segmentation rather than age when targeting their campaigns.

* Blue is the new green. Products that lessen impacts on climate? Been there, done that. What consumers will really be looking for in the future is "blue," the color of spiritual fulfillment and good-citizen ethics.

DETAILS: JWT

CLICK OF THE MONTH: LEGACY LETTER PROJECT

"Make a list of things you have survived and keep it where you can see it often." Sharon Stubbs

"Don't speak those cutting words you are always sorry for later." Lynn Campbell

"Others give meaning to our lives. Be interested in others and you will be interesting to others. Be committed to others and they will be committed to you." Willard "Sandy" Boyd (president emeritus, University of Iowa)

These simple bits of wisdom come from contributors to the online Legacy Letter Project, the brainchild of University of Iowa leisure studies lecturer David Gould.

The project began when Gould invited senior citizens in the community to share their life lessons with his students; as the project grew, Gould began receiving letters from as far away as Venezuela, connecting not only generations, but cultures as well.

"From the students' perspective, there's an unsaid need to want to know what's down the road," says Gould. "And the authors are thrilled to be asked. You live 70, 80 years and endure a host of high points and low points to arrive where you are."

The site also includes information on how to submit your own legacy letter.

DETAILS: University of Iowa

NEWS FROM THE FUTURIST COMMUNITY

* MASTER'S DEGREE PROGRAM IN FUTURES STUDIES: At this two-year program of Futures Studies organized in Turku, Finland, students gain their master's degree in economic sciences along with the expertise in future business and in the business of the future. The program focuses on strategic thinking, visionary management, foresight, sustainable futures, and futures studies methods, theories, and practices. All teaching is given in English. Deadline for the applications is on January 31, 2008. DETAILS

* NEW LEADERSHIP AT INSTITUTE FOR THE FUTURE: Stephen Steele steps down on January 1 from his longtime position as director of the Institute for the Future at Anne Arundel Community College. He will be succeeded by faculty members Steven Henick, a retired international business executive, and Maureen Sherer, co-editor of the Institute's electronic newsletter Futureportal. Steele will continue his association with the Institute as a professor of sociology and futures studies. DETAILS

* EDITOR'S THANKS! The response was overwhelmingly positive to our inquiry last month on the possibility of a separate monthly newsletter exclusively covering News from the Futurist Community. While we are developing the format of the new Community Newsletter, please continue to watch this space in Futurist Update for news of interest to futurists around the world.

December 2007 Vol. 8, No. 12

In This Issue:
* Laws Governing the Heavens
* Ethnicity and Alzheimer's Disease
* Risk Assessment: Emotion Trumps Logic
* Boom in the Baltics
* Click of the Month: Monkey News
* News from the Futurist Community

LAWS GOVERNING THE HEAVENS

If a baby is born in outer space, what is its nationality? If two astronauts get in a fight, whose criminal justice system applies? If you invent something while working in a lab on the International Space Station, where do you apply for a patent?

Such sky-high legal issues may become immediate concerns. Europe's space laboratory Columbus is scheduled to ride the U.S. shuttle Atlantis in December and join the International Space Station.

To help bring about consensus on celestial legal issues, the European Science Foundation and the European Space Policy Institute organized a multidisciplinary, multinational symposium in October on Humans in Outer Space.

One initial proposal that was rejected was for U.S. law to prevail on the International Space Station. But the symposium participants did agree that, in matters of criminal law, an accused astronaut's own country would have jurisdiction over laws broken in space. The nationality of future Moon babies was not decided.

SOURCE: European Science Foundation,
http://www.esf.org/research-areas/humanities/news/ext-news-singleview/ar...

ETHNICITY AND ALZHEIMER'S DISEASE

Latinos and African Americans with Alzheimer's disease live longer than do whites, Native Americans, and Asians, according to a study published by the journal NEUROLOGY. The findings transcended socioeconomic status, education levels, age when symptoms began, and other factors.

The study followed 31,000 Alzheimer's patients for an average of 2.4 years and found that Latinos lived an average of 40% longer than whites, while African Americans lived 15% longer than whites. Asian and Native American patients' longevity was similar to that of whites.

Factors that could account for the differences include the social support of extended families and varying levels of health and other diseases in addition to the Alzheimer's, according to study author Kala Mehta of the University of California, San Francisco.

"Determining the underlying factors behind this difference could lead to longer survival for everyone with Alzheimer's disease," says Mehta. "Regardless of the reason for this difference, these findings may have implications for health-care planning for people with Alzheimer's disease."

SOURCE: NEUROLOGY, the medical journal of the American Academy of Neurology,
http://www.aan.com/press/index.cfm?fuseaction=release.view&release=559

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SEE YOUR FUTURE THROUGH NEW EYES

More than 70 outstanding futurists and professionals from a wide variety of disciplines have already been confirmed as presenters at WorldFuture 2008: Seeing the Future Through New Eyes, the Society's next annual conference, to be held July 26-28 in Washington, D.C.

Among those you'll have the opportunity to exchange ideas with are international affairs professor Leon S. Fuerth, who served as Vice President Al Gore's national security adviser; WFS founding president Edward Cornish; NASA-Langley chief scientist Dennis N. Bushnell; and Elizabeth Carlson, executive director of the National Association of Elementary School Principals.

In addition to the general sessions, an exciting program of special events, preconference courses, professional meetings, and networking opportunities is in the works.

LEARN MORE: http://www.wfs.org/2008main.htm

REGISTER BY DECEMBER 31 and save $200 off the on-site registration fee:
https://www.wfs.org/2008regform.htm

CONFERENCE VOLUME SUBMISSION GUIDELINES:
http://www.wfs.org/2008volguidelines.htm

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RISK ASSESSMENT: EMOTION TRUMPS LOGIC

Why would anyone choose to live in a place that may burn in a wildfire or be swept away by a hurricane or a flood? Because it's awe-inspiringly beautiful, and they love it.

The proximity to ocean views is an emotional attraction for people to live in the heavily wooded areas of Southern California, where 2,000 homes were destroyed by October's wildfires. This emotion led the homeowners to discount the risks, according to National Science Foundation risk-management researchers.

If people really want to do something that is risky, they tend to judge the risks as low, despite all the available information about the hazards of their choice. Providing information that is more emotionally vivid (e.g., scare tactics) may help alter the public's judgment of risks.

But information that is too vivid could backfire, warns researcher Jacqueline Meszaros. Studies of fear-based anti-smoking campaigns, for instance, have found that some vivid messages can actually lead to more kids smoking.

SOURCE: National Science Foundation,
http://www.nsf.gov/news/news_summ.jsp?cntn_id=110590

BOOM IN THE BALTICS

The Baltic Sea region's prospects appear bright, with four countries in the top 10 of the World Economic Forum's Global Competitiveness Index: Denmark, Sweden, Germany, and Finland. Key ingredients to the region's general success are increased labor productivity and mobilization, according to the ScanBalt network's 2007 State of the Region report.

The region also scores high on employment, innovation, social cohesion, and the environment. But there are clouds on the horizon, including increasing global competition and demographic pressures such as aging populations.

"Economic growth will increase wage pressure, lead to shortages of skilled labor, and can easily create social divisions between those that are well prepared to take advantage of these new opportunities, such as young, urban and well educated people, and those that can’t," report author Christian Ketels of Harvard Business School told the BALTIC TIMES. "There is a danger that the Baltics will become much less of a 'good deal' if wages continue to rise while economic opportunities for productivity growth become smaller."

SOURCES: World Economic Forum Global Competitiveness Index 2007-2008,
http://www.weforum.org/en/media/Latest%20Press%20Releases/GCR08Release

"Harvard Economist Advocates Effective Government Regulation," BALTIC TIMES (July 12, 2006): http://www.baltictimes.com/news/articles/15853/

ScanBalt, http://www.scanbalt.org

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GIVE A GIFT THAT'S THOUGHTFUL AND THOUGHT-PROVOKING

Membership in the World Future Society makes not only a thoughtful gift, but also a wise one--a gift that will keep provoking thought all year long.

Insightful articles by industry experts, creative thinkers, and leading intellectuals give you a new way to think about the trends that are shaping your world--and fresh ideas for managing those trends to create the future you hope for.

Ideal for clients, customers, colleagues, teachers, students, friends, family, neighbors, mentors, and protégés, gift memberships are just $49 for the first membership and $39 each for additional recipients.

And if there are full-time students under age 25 on your list, their gift memberships are just $20 each!

GIVE GIFT MEMBERSHIPS NOW: http://www.wfs.org/membership.htm

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CLICK OF THE MONTH: MONKEY NEWS

http://www.wtopnews.com/?nid=501

Looking for a new angle on news? The Washington, D.C., based radio station WTOP maintains its Monkey News department on its Web site because, frankly, the news can be depressing and monkeys are a way of lightening things up.

And monkeys are quite relevant to the future, since they are affected by environmental trends, are involved in cutting-edge research, and participate (in their own monkey way) in groundbreaking legal matters. Recent monkey headlines:

* "Monkey Clones Unlikely to Bring New Care," on the use of stem cells cloned from monkey embryos.
* "Court Won't Declare Chimp a Person," on an animal rights case in Austria.
* "Chimpanzee Who Knew Sign Language Dies," on Washoe, a female chimp thought to be the first nonhuman to learn our language.
* "Ebola Said Depleting Gorilla Populations," on the peril of a species now thought to be one step away from extinction.

Of course, chimps and gorillas are really apes, not monkeys, but WTOP reasons that few humans would bother to click on "Primate News."

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NOW PLAYING ON FUTURE TV: Top 10 Forecasts, 2008
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sKYY_8iqaB0

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NEWS FROM THE FUTURIST COMMUNITY

* MILLENNIUM PROJECT NODE IN DUBAI: The Millennium Project, an international futures research think tank supported by the World Federation of United Nations Associations, welcomes its 31st Node or global partner: the Innovation Unit of the Dubai government's Knowledge and Human Development Authority (KHDA). The new Dubai Node will focus on research to increase individual human intelligence and brain functioning. Other nations interested in establishing Millennium Project Nodes include Nigeria, Tanzania, and Burundi. DETAILS: KHDA, http://www.ameinfo.com/138182.html or contact Jerome C. Glenn, Millennium Project director, mailto:jglenn@igc.org

* EDITOR'S QUERY: Would you be interested in receiving a separate monthly newsletter exclusively covering News from the Futurist Community? The World Future Society would like your input on such a project. Like FUTURIST UPDATE, the proposed Community newsletter would be free and sent to subscribers by e-mail each month.

Please send an e-mail with "Yes [or No] Futurist Community Newsletter" in the subject line to mailto:cwagner@wfs.org