A government’s coerciveness, its capacity to protect itself, and its citizens’ ability to mobilize against it are the three key factors in determining how vulnerable a country may be to civic violence.
The Domestic Political Violence Forecasting Model, developed by a team of political scientists from Kansas State and Binghamton universities, has already successfully predicted unrest in Tunisia, Peru, Ecuador, Ireland, and Italy.
The model shows that outbreaks of violence are not limited to repressive states, but can also predictably occur in Western democracies. The researchers warn that responding to unrest with crackdowns on human rights tends to fuel insurgency rather than suppress it.
Sources: Kansas State University, www.k-state.edu. A list of the top 37 countries projected to experience civil unrest through 2014 is available at the Domestic Political Violence Forecasting Model, http://radicalism .milcord.com/blog.