Climate Change and Global Conflicts

"Cold" wars have existed throughout history; now we may see heat wars.

Traumatic climate cooling may have launched wars in the past, like the Little Ice Age of the mid-sixteenth through mid-nineteenth centuries. Cold-induced stresses on agriculture led to wars, famines, and population declines, an international team of researchers believes. Now, they warn that future climate change that turns up the heat could also increase conflicts.

Sudden changes in temperature don't directly cause conflict, but they do disrupt water and food supplies. Shortages of such critical resources can lead people to rise against their governments or invade neighboring countries, according to research led by University of Hong Kong geographer David Zhang and published by the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

To study the relationship between climate and conflict, the researchers collected data on temperature change and wars from A.D. 1400 to 1900. They discovered that cycles of turbulence followed historic low temperatures, with tranquility restored during more-temperate times. Sources for the study included a database of 4,500 wars, assembled by co-author Peter Brecke of Georgia Tech, and climate records reconstructed by paleontologists from historical documents.

The researchers found that there were nearly twice as many wars per year worldwide during cold centuries as there were during the milder eighteenth century. More than 80% of countries around the world experienced more wars in a cold climate, according to Zhang.

The researchers reason that the link between climate shock and conflict is the supply of food: Decreases in agricultural production trigger increases in food prices, and when grain prices reach a certain level, wars erupt.

Population growth and decline are also affected by these climate change driven conflicts, the researchers believe. After peak periods of war in Europe and Asia, such as during the frigid seventeenth century, populations declined. In China, population dropped by 43% between 1620 and 1650, then rose dramatically between 1650 and 1800, when the next cooling period began, bringing another global demographic shock.

"Climate change may have played a more important role on human civilization than has so far been suggested," says Zhang. The depletion of resources on which livelihoods are based is the most critical effect of such change and is "the root cause of human miseries—e.g., wars, famines, and epidemics."

Abrupt global warming is upon us now, they warn, and may pose just as dire threats to resource supply and demand as did global cooling in centuries past.

"The speed of global warming is totally beyond our imagination," says Zhang. "Such abnormal climate will certainly break the balance of human ecosystem. At the moment, scientists cannot accurately predict the chain of ecological effects induced by climate change. If global warming continues, we are afraid that the associated shortages of livelihood resources such as freshwater, arable land, and food may trigger more armed conflicts (e.g., Darfur in Africa) or even general crises in the world."

As Brecke of Georgia Tech points out, global warming may have some beneficial effects in the short term, but "with more droughts and a rapidly growing population, it is going to get harder and harder to provide food for everyone and thus we should not be surprised to see more instances of starvation and probably more cases of hungry people clashing over scarce food and water."

Human beings are unlikely to sit still with such dire prospects before them, notes Zhang. Responses to resource shortages extend beyond fighting over dwindling crumbs of bread and drops of water, but include economic change, trade, technological and social innovation, and peaceful resource distribution. In eighteenth century China, for instance, the frequency of war decreased "because the Qing emperors had united all troublesome tribal states in the western and northern marginal areas," the authors write. "We hope that positive social mechanisms that are conducive to human adaptability will play an ever more effective role in meeting the challenges of the future."--Cynthia G. Wagner

Sources: "Global Climate Change, War, and Population Decline in Recent Human History" by David D. Zhang et al. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (November 20, 2007).

University of Hong Kong, Pok Fu Lam Road, Hong Kong.

Georgia Institute of Technology, Research News and Publications Office, 75 Fifth Street, N.W., Suite 100, Atlanta, Georgia 30308.

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Government
March-April 2008. Vol 42 No. 2

Climate Change and Global Conflicts

Fighting the Urge to Fight the Urge

Every day, we pressure ourselves to control our impulses—to work harder rather than go home early, to avoid sugar, carbohydrates, and transfats; to save instead of spend; and to exercise courtesy rather than snap at the barista who flubbed our order. Meanwhile, we can't ride the subway, turn on the TV, or open a magazine without finding an ad urging us to self-indulge. Balancing these two competing forces sometimes seems impossible. A new report from two Canadian researchers suggests why: Our capacity for self-control is far shallower than we realize.

"People have a limited amount of self-control, and tasks requiring controlled, willful action quickly deplete this central resource. Exerting self-control on one task impairs performance on subsequent tasks requiring the same resource," write Michael Inzlicht and Jennifer N. Gutsell in their article in the journal Psychological Science.

In their experiment, Inzlicht and Gutsell separated 40 individuals into two groups. In both groups, participants were fitted with EEG monitoring equipment and made to watch a disturbing wildlife documentary. One group was asked not to display any reaction to the gruesome subject matter; the other group was instructed simply to watch the footage and not proscribed a reaction. Afterwards, both groups completed a rapid-fire color-matching test requiring a controlled response. The test showed that people who had suppressed their reaction to the documentary (measurable via the EEG readout) performed less well on the color-matching test.

According to the authors, the study "suggests a neuroscientifically informed account of how self-control is constrained by previous acts of control [and] that mental fatigue can occur relatively quickly and affect tasks unrelated to the depleting activity." In other words, exercising control on one task makes it harder to exercise control on the task immediately following.

Though we have a shallow and finite reserve of willpower, self-control can improve over time, much like a muscle can be trained. The trick is knowing how to train your will. Simply slowing down and thinking clearly about an impulse (rather than reflexively giving in or denying it) can build self-control, says Inzlicht.

Setting specific self-control goals also works the control muscle. Cordelia Fine, author of the book A Mind of Its Own: How Your Brain Distorts and Deceives, suggests that exerting self-control in one area, though it depletes willpower in the short term, can help the brain build up willpower over time. "What psychologists are already beginning to see are ways in which the mind gradually takes on a preconscious gatekeeping role to keep tempting thoughts and ideas out of consciousness—a form of willpower-lite," she says.

Focusing your willpower on a specific objective—like not ordering red meat off the menu—rather than trying to fight every impulse you're faced with over the course of a day increases your chances of eventually being able to conquer the temptations one at a time. This, in turn, will help you develop the tools to accomplish more goals.

Ego also plays a significant role in whether we surrender to—or resist—tempting urges. We often associate giving in to impulses with a relaxed state of mind, but someone who is anxious because they constantly feel like a social outcast will have a more difficult time resisting temptation than someone who feels comfortable in their social surroundings.

"Coping with a stigmatized social identity" exhausts willpower, says Inzlicht. People who feel stigmatized are more likely to indulge in socially inappropriate behavior, which can further increase their sense of alienation.

Fine hopes that research papers like Inzlicht and Gutsell's will encourage people to explore how the environments we construct can sap our will in the way they make us feel.

"The philosopher Neil Levy has recently argued that so long as we continue to focus on how to build up our internal resources, we will overlook the equally—if not more—important issue of how to structure our surroundings in order to bolster self-control," says Fine. "Research shows that ego-depleted participants are more likely to make impulse buys, to spend more, and to eat more unhealthy snacks that they'd rather not have eaten. We can struggle to find ways to harden the moral sinew—but perhaps we should be thinking, too, about the contribution of our willpower-draining surroundings to our failures of self-control."--Patrick Tucker

Sources: "Running On Empty: Neural Signals for Self-Control Failure" by Michael Inzlicht and Jennifer Gutsell, Psychological Science (November 2007).

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Society
March-April 2008. Vol 42. No. 2

Fighting the Urge to Fight the Urge

High-Tech Service for Hotel Guests

"Clocky," the elusive, perky robotic alarm clock, is just one of the gadgets getting a workout at the University of Delaware and Courtyard of Marriott's Teaching Hotel. Clocky's pesky behavior notwithstanding, the goal in creating the experimental guest room (X-room) is to develop technologies that make traveling easier for an increasingly demanding clientele.

Among the features you may find in tomorrow's accommodations:

• Digital peephole: A video camera captures the view of your visitor at the door and displays it on an LCD screen inside.

• High-resolution digital photo frame to keep your family's smiling faces close by.

• In-room workout with Wii, Nintendo's popular exercise gaming system.

• Bedside room-environment control panel allowing you to turn up the heat or turn down the lights.

• An air-powered shower head and an ionic hair dryer that save water and energy.

• Flameless electronic candles for romantic ambience.

• Lights that turn themselves off after sensors inform them that you've left the room.

The X-room's features are being tested by actual guests and hotel staff, according to Cihan Cobanoglu, associate professor of hospitality information technology. "Our goal is to determine the acceptance levels of these technologies and the impact they make on guest satisfaction and staff efficiency," he says.

Source: Cihan Cobanoglu, University of Delaware, Hotel, Restaurant, and Institutional Management, 14 West Main Street, Raub Hall, Newark, Delaware 19716. Web site www.cihan.org.

Adorable but annoying: "Clocky," the robotic clock, gives a hotel guest one chance to wake up when the alarm goes off. If the guest presses the "snooze" button, Clocky will jump off the nightstand and rush around the room looking for a place to hide. The next time the alarm goes off, the guest has to find the clock to turn it off.--Cynthia G. Wagner

Source: Cihan Cobanoglu, University of Delaware, Hotel, Restaurant, and Institutional Management, 14 West Main Street, Raub Hall, Newark, Delaware 19716.

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Technology
March-April 2008 Vol. 42, No. 2

High-Tech Service for Hotel Guests

Lunar Habitat Gets Antarctic Test

It looks like something your kids want to play in at the fair, but NASA's inflatable lunar habitat will have to survive harsher conditions than a few hundred toddlers' karate kicks.

To test the habitat under the most extreme natural conditions possible, developers of the prototype will deploy it for a year on the harsh, frigid landscape of Antarctica. Inside, the sophisticated inflatable habitat is heated, insulated, powered, and pressurized, with an eight-foot ceiling and 384 square feet of living space. It is also equipped with sensors allowing engineers to monitor its performance.

"Testing the inflatable habitat in one of the harshest, most remote sites on Earth gives us the opportunity to see what it would be like to use for lunar exploration," says Paul Lockhart, director of Constellation Systems for NASA's Exploration Systems Mission Directorate.

The Constellation program aims to send humans back to the moon by 2020, first for short stays and then for longer durations, thus requiring a durable homestead. And because the habitat must be transported along with hardware and fuel—125 pounds worth for every pound of supplies launched—it needs to be lightweight as well as strong, according to Lockhart.

Partnering with NASA is the National Science Foundation, which will study improvements in packing and deploying the habitat, as well as its power consumption and damage tolerance. --Cynthia G. Wagner

Sources: National Science Foundation, 4201 Wilson Boulevard, Arlington, Virginia 22230.
NASA Innovative Partnerships Program,

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Environment
March-April 2008 Vol. 42, No. 2

Lunar Habitat Gets Antarctic Test

U.S. Competitiveness Showing Weakness

The United States remains the most economically competitive nation in the world, but signs of weakness loom on the horizon, according to the World Economic Forum. Following the United States at the top of the Forum's "Global Competitiveness Report 2007-2008" are Switzerland, Denmark, Sweden, and Germany.

"The United States confirms its position as the most competitive economy in the world," notes the report's co-editor, Columbia University economics professor Xavier Sala-i-Martin. "The efficiency of the country's markets, the sophistication of its business community, the impressive capacity for technological innovation that exists within a first-rate system of universities and research centers all contribute to making the United States a highly competitive economy."

The recent problems in the U.S. housing market, especially with the flood of defaults on so-called subprime mortgages, raised warning flags among the world's analysts on the overall health of the U.S. economy, as well as its impacts globally. The U.S. subprime mortgage crisis was followed by a global credit crunch, notes Sala-i-Martin.

In developing its most recent Global Competitive Index, first introduced in 2004, the World Economic Forum used both publicly available data and its own Executive Opinion Survey, polling 11,000 business leaders in 131 countries. The Index rankings are based on 12 key indicators of competitiveness: Institutions, Infrastructure, Macroeconomic Stability, Health and Primary Education, Higher Education and Training, Goods Market Efficiency, Labor Market Efficiency, Financial Market Sophistication, Technological Readiness, Market Size, Business Sophistication, and Innovation.

A second part of the report focuses on business competitiveness, since not all countries scoring high on economic competitiveness can translate that into business dominance, according to the report's co-director, Harvard Business School professor Michael E. Porter. For instance, the high wages found in Switzerland, Norway, and Spain are "much above the level supported by their competitiveness," he notes.

"Many countries have achieved progress by opening up to the world economy, stabilizing macroeconomic policies, and removing internal barriers to competition," says Porter. "Our findings reveal the need to build underlying microeconomic competitiveness to translate these gains into sustained prosperity. If improvements in the business environment and company sophistication fail to materialize, . . . nations expose themselves to declining competitiveness and are vulnerable to economic and social risks."

Source: World Economic Forum, 91-93 route de la Capite, CH - 1223 Cologny/Geneva, Switzerland. Web site

Top 10, Global Competitive Index 2007

Based on their high scores on macroeconomic stability, market efficiency, innovation, and other factors, the world's most competitive economies are:

1. United States

2. Switzerland

3. Denmark

4. Sweden

5. Germany

6. Finland

7. Singapore

8. Japan

9. United Kingdom

10. Netherlands.-Cynthia G. Wagner

Source: World Economic Forum -

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Why Some Economies Grow and Others Don't

Review by Lane Jennings
Making Poor Nations Rich: Entrepreneurship and the Process of Economic Development, edited by Benjamin Powell. Stanford University Press. 2007. 440 pages. Paperback. $29.95.

In 1970, Sweden ranked fourth among OECD member nations in terms of average personal income. By 1990 it had dropped to ninth, and in 2003 it was only fourteenth. Ireland, one of the poorest nations in Europe for the past two centuries, surged from number 21 on this same list to take over Sweden’s old spot at number four. And it did so in just 13 years, from 1990 to 2003. What happened? And, more important, how can other nations imitate Ireland’s example and avoid Sweden’s mistakes?

For Making Poor Nations Rich, editor Benjamin Powell, research fellow at the Independent Institute and assistant professor of economics at Suffolk University, has assembled a collection of essays by economists from several countries that all point to the same answer. And that answer is.... But wait, first let’s look more closely at the question.

Scholars and politicians have often puzzled over why some communities and nations enjoy power and affluence while others struggle merely to survive. Compare Africa and China. Both cover huge areas and have abundant natural resources, but they also have large undeveloped regions and a population heavily concentrated in a few locations. Yet today, China has a unifying culture and a booming economy, while most of Africa remains culturally fragmented and desperately poor.

History tells part of the story. But only a part. In their book Culture Matters: How Values Shape Human Progress (Basic Books, 2000) [reviewed in THE FUTURIST January-February 2001], Lawrence E. Harrison and Samuel P. Huntington noted that the relative importance that different societies assigned to concepts like work ethic, education, equal justice, and planning ahead were often instrumental in exploiting assets and overcoming disasters and constraints.

In his introduction to this book, editor Powell zeroes in on two sets of values within a community or nation that, he believes, largely determine how affluent its citizens become and how long they stay that way. There are "cosmological beliefs," he notes, that involve how a particular culture answers or chooses to ignore the big philosophical questions of life. For example, "What is the meaning of existence? What is justice? What makes a government legitimate?" Cultures differ dramatically over such issues and will fight fiercely to defend their traditional beliefs if they feel threatened. But for most people, cosmological questions do not determine economic success or failure.

What counts more, Powell argues, are a culture’s "material" beliefs—specifically, what activities are considered legitimate ways to make a living. Farming, tool making, and specialized crafts are all common examples. But many cultures have held these productive occupations in surprisingly low esteem. Often, higher prestige and material rewards go to activities like land owning, rent collecting, trade for profit, war for conquest, and simple banditry. Professions such as law, advertising, stock trading, banking, and public administration fall somewhere in between. They can all make valuable contributions to improve the overall quality of life for the general population, but without adequate constraints on their activities, individuals who practice these occupations can become "vampires," consuming the goods and wealth of others and providing no tangible benefits in return.

In the view of Powell, and perhaps of most economists (certainly of those who contributed essays to this book), it is individual greed—the desire for maximum profit for minimal effort—that makes the economic world go round. In any culture, most active, inventive, and able individuals will turn their talents toward the most attractive ways available to accumulate material comfort and social prestige.

So here is the secret of economic success: A country’s standard of living rises so long as those activities it most encourages are productive (e.g., manufacturing and innovation) rather than nonproductive (bureaucratic red-tape handling, for instance) or destructive (bribery, usury, blackmail, or military conquest). But if unproductive or destructive activities seem more likely to bring sure and lasting rewards, a country’s "best and brightest" tend to use their talents in these areas. As a result, the economic well-being of the general populace begins to stagnate and eventually to fall.

Other contributors to the book examine how legislation and policies can play key roles in achieving and sustaining economic development.

Mancur Olsson Jr., late professor of economics at the University of Maryland, emphasizes the importance of contracts. Only those nations where courts respect private property rights and enforce contracts fairly are going to attract foreign investment and motivate local entrepreneurs.

Robert Lawson, professor of economics at Capital University in Columbus, Ohio, offers thought-provoking statistics to prove his contention that those societies that prize and protect "private property, rule of law and free markets [consistently outperform] ... those that are less economically free." To critics who complain that unrestrained free markets ultimately pull society apart into two groups—the very rich and the very poor—Lawson replies, "there is simply no evidence that economic freedom creates greater income inequality." Moreover, evidence shows that even lower income people in economically freer countries live longer, are better educated, and enjoy higher material standards of living than their counterparts in less-free countries.

These essays on policy are followed by case studies assessing areas of the world today with less-than-flourishing economies—including Africa, Latin America, and Sweden.

Despite decades of technical aid, investment, and advice, the vast majority of people in many African nations remain poor, with few prospects for improvement anytime soon. George Ayittey, a native of Ghana and now an economist at American University in Washington, D.C., believes he knows the reason. Western aid-givers, he complains, have consistently believed the promises of smooth-talking African leaders and too seldom provided any help directly to African people. In country after country, material and money intended for development projects have been diverted by members of the governing elite to enrich themselves and their supporters. Well-meaning Europeans and Americans ignore or simply do not know that a market economy depends on "secure property rights, free flow of information, rule of law, and mechanisms for contract enforcement. Because these processes ... are missing in most African countries," Ayittey warns, "so are the free markets."

Dan Johansson, a research fellow of the Ratio Institute in Stockholm, reports that Sweden’s once flourishing economy began to slide in the 1950s because government social programs intended to provide cradle-to-grave security for all citizens produced many unintended consequences. Increasingly complex laws and ever-rising taxes discouraged businesses from expanding and private citizens from saving and investing. Without the economic growth that only business and private investment can generate, Sweden now finds itself unable to make good on its promises, as more citizens leave the workforce for retirement and fewer young workers step up to take their places.

The book concludes with encouraging success stories from nations in Asia (China, India), Europe (Ireland), and even Africa (Botswana), whose economic achievement illustrates Powell’s belief that encouraging small-business entrepreneurs is the best way to achieve and maintain general affluence.

While a few essays are dry and technical, most of the writing here is vivid and intelligent. Futurists will be particularly interested in the essays by James A. Dorn on China’s key achievements and remaining economic needs, as well as the assessment of India’s prospects for attaining world prominence in trade and culture by Parth J. Shah and Renuka Sane.

About the Reviewer
Lane Jennings is research director of THE FUTURIST and production editor of Future Survey.

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March-April 2008 Vol. 42. No. 2