The Future of Crime Prediction

Predictive analytics has received a substantial amount of attention in the media. However, it is only recently that predictive analytics in policing has gone mainstream. Four futurists from the Futures Working Group will discuss current applications of predictive analytics and related advanced statistical and computational techniques, how they may be applied to predicting not just future crime patterns, but also recidivism, areas in danger of becoming crime hot spots and other applications.

Insights from existing literature, experience, and independent research will be used to describe how these methods may be used to create a plausible and preferable future in which the ability of the criminal justice system to provide for public safety will be enhanced. Following their presentation, the panelists will engage the audience in discussions about future applications of these technologies to the problems of public safety. The audience will be able to post questions using Twitter and GoogleDocs.

Highlights: 

Participants will leave the session with an understanding of:

  • The historical development of predictive analytics, the current state of the art, and likely future developments.
  • How these methods can be applied to very complex social problems.
  • How these technologies likely impact law enforcement in both positive and negative ways.

John Jarvis is chairman of the Futures Working Group and serves the FBI as the chief criminologist, Behavioral Science Unit, FBI, Quantico, Virginia, USA

Tom Dover, Federal Bureau of Investigation, Quantico, Virginia, USA

Andreas Olligschlager, Freedom, Pennsylvania, USA

Amanda Terrell-Orr is a member of the Colorado Springs Police Department, Colorado Springs. Colorado, USA

portrait of John Jarvis