In This Issue:
* China's Economy to Surpass U.S.
* European Water Wasters
* More Research, Less Knowledge?
* Click of the Month: Fauxtography
* News from the Futurist Community
The growth of the Chinese economy over the past several years is "no flash in the pan," according to a new report from the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. It will surpass the U.S. economy by 2035 and double by mid-century.
Driven by increasing domestic demand rather than by exports, the Chinese economy will be less susceptible to global discontinuities, according to the report, "China's Rise—Fact and Fiction," by economist Albert Keidel. The Chinese government has also facilitated economic growth by financing infrastructure and making other public investments.
The prospect of a China that is more economically powerful than the United States will have military implications, Keidel warns. Though China's military is currently only a fraction of the size of the U.S. military, policy makers should begin planning today for a very different world in 50 years, the report concludes.
SOURCE:Carnegie Endowment for International Peace "China's Economic Rise—Fact and Fiction"
A recent poll of western Europeans' shower habits reveals not only wastefulness but also a lack of concern for the gels, shampoos, and other contaminants draining into water systems.
Britons are particularly self-indulgent showerers, with 12% reportedly lingering for 11 to 20 minutes. And of British men surveyed, only 35% say they think about the contaminants, compared with nearly two-thirds of Spanish women saying they care about the stuff going down the drain.
Most European adults shower between two and five minutes, according to the survey by Ipsos MORI for the Royal Society of Chemistry.
"We have to take on board the critical message that water is a precious resource and in the years to come it is going to become increasingly scarce," says Richard Pike, RSC chief executive. "We can save water massively by using less when washing, without compromising hygiene. One should be able to shower thoroughly within a couple of minutes."
SOURCE: Royal Society of Chemistry
New research about research shows that, despite growing access to scholarly papers online, fewer publications are being cited. The result could be a shallower marketplace of ideas.
University of Chicago sociology professor James Evans reports that the Internet gives researchers instant access to a wealth of information in academic journals, but most citations are limited to more-recent articles appearing in the most-prominent journals. The result may be that only a few new ideas get picked up and others fade away before they are properly evaluated.
Online search tools like Google factor in the frequency of hits on individual sites, putting the most-popular pages at the top of search results. Searchers who hit those sites and include the links in their own research thus perpetuate their popularity.
“With science and scholarship increasing online, findings and ideas that don’t receive attention very soon will be forgotten more quickly than ever before,” warns Evans.
SOURCE: National Science Foundation
Many information-age skeptics are already familiar with the popular myth-busting site Snopes.com. We bring your attention now to a special section of Snopes devoted to verifying the veracity of images that may or may not have been altered.
“Numerous photographs and videos circulate on the Internet. Some are real. Some are fake. Some are real but have been given false backstories,” according to the site. Fauxtography offers proof (or disproof) for well-circulated images ranging from spectacular traffic accidents to astonishing natural phenomena, such as elaborately striped icebergs.
Photographs about public figures or events are especially worth cautious observation. For instance, former U.S. presidential candidate John Kerry was “seen” twice with political activist and actress Jane Fonda: Sitting at a 1970 antiwar rally (true) and sharing a podium at another rally (false).
Comment: As image and audio editing technologies become easier for more people to use, whether for their own entertainment or to manipulate public perceptions, truth becomes increasingly elusive. Visual information flows fast, so we need to take time for critical thinking.
* TWIN OAKS FOUNDER DIES: Kat Kinkade, the founder of Twin Oaks and several other secular, egalitarian, intentional communities, passed away peacefully after a long battle with cancer and was laid to rest on July 4 in the Twin Oaks cemetery. She was 77.
“I'm grateful that I was fortunate enough to have had the opportunity to get to know her over the past few years, and I remember her with fondness and respect,” says FUTURIST editorial assistant Aaron M. Cohen. “She was an amazing woman, to say the least. A true visionary and pioneering spirit—and the primary architect of what is now, after 41 years, the oldest and arguably the most successful secular communal living experiment in U.S. history.”
* BILLIONAIRE, PHILANTHROPIST, INVESTOR IN IDEAS: Sir John Templeton, founder of the Templeton Growth Fund and the Templeton Prize for Progress in Religion, died of pneumonia in the Bahamas. He was 95 years old. The Templeton Prize honors achievements that advance human understanding of the spiritual domain, fearlessly exploring “big questions” like whether science makes belief in God obsolete. The prize has been awarded to individuals ranging from Mother Teresa to physicist Freeman Dyson.
* “BRIC” TOUR, PART 3: Having already visited China and India, Social Technologies is preparing for the third leg of its Futures Expedition through the BRIC countries—Brazil, Russia, India, and China. The expedition to Moscow will be September 25-30, and will explore trends in the robust, petro-dollar-fueled “New Russia.”
* FUTURE ORGANIZATIONS, FOOD CRISIS: The Tomorrow Network is hosting two special events in London this fall. “The Future of Organisations,” on September 8, examines the forces that will change tomorrow’s institutions and in what directions they may evolve. “The Future of the Food Crisis,” November 25, features speakers from Oxfam and Chatham House discussing the current food prices crisis. For more information or to join the Tomorrow Network (free), contact: Richard Worsley, director, the Tomorrow Project, or visit here.
* 2008 STATE OF THE FUTURE: The annual report of the Millennium Project will be available in August and is already generating positive buzz. An overview of the report’s findings appeared in the July 13 edition of THE INDEPENDENT, “We Have Seen the Future—And We May Not Be Doomed.” The report comprises a softcover overview and a CD-ROM containing approximately 6,300 pages of research and analysis. DETAILS: Jerome C. Glenn, director, the Millennium Project, World Federation of UN Associations.
* ANTICIPATING FUTURE SCHOOLS: Sociologist and educator Arthur Shostak’s 33rd book will be published in September by Rowman & Littlefield. ANTICIPATE THE SCHOOL YOU WANT: FUTURIZING K-12 EDUCATION focuses attention on what Shostak calls “the” critical weakness of contemporary public education: its neglect of providing young people with vital futuring skills. The book offers “an affordable, pragmatic, and user-friendly program of school reform—one likely to appeal to students, parents, teachers, and educational administrators alike,” he says.