A novel and innovative real-time Delphi technique for foresight surveys is presented that addresses known weaknesses of the conventional Delphi method, such as complicated facilitator tasks, lack of real-time presentation of results, and difficulties in tracking progress over time. It will be demonstrated how the real-time (Internet-based) method increases the efficiency of the Delphi process, accommodates expert availability, and reduces drop-out rates. Modifications in the procedure (e.g., change of iteration principle) not only increase efficiency, but also change the nature and process of the survey technique itself. Participants will see graphic illustrations of how the new real-time Delphi results have been used for the development of expert-based long-range scenarios. The audience will get practical insights in new methodological approaches as well as in scenario studies on transportation and logistics.
Who should attend: Researchers and professionals in the field of foresight methodology (especially Delphi and scenarios), professionals of any industry who are interested in decision-making processes, IT-based decision making, and transportation and logistics.
What you’ll learn: We have developed a new real-time Delphi survey format that builds upon the earlier work of Ted Gordon and Adam Pease, as well as Gene Rowe and George Wright. The presentation shows numerous screenshots of how our modified Internet-based Delphi process works. Since we have used this methodology already for approximately 15 different scenario studies in client environments—e.g., the transportation field, the fast-moving consumer goods industry, and the automotive business, among others—the audience will get many helpful insights, useful for all researchers and professionals dealing with scenarios and Delphi.
How this new knowledge can be applied: The presentation will give a lot of illustrations of a new software tool, as well as case examples from industry research. Participants can pick up the idea of Internet-based foresight surveys for their own research. In addition, the shown process of Delphi-based scenario development represents a scientifically sound methodology that assures high validity and reliability (i.e., quality), in scenario development. It might therefore add to more rigorous thinking in foresight activities.
Heiko A. von der Gracht, managing director, the Center for Futures Studies and Knowledge Management at EBS Business School, Wiesbaden, Germany
key words: Delphi, scenarios, transportation, logistics
issue area: Futures Methodologies